Saturday, March 04, 2017

2017 Fantasy Nascar Update (Atlanta)

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Fantasy Nascar Update -

A:

1. Kevin Harvick - Harvick been very good this weekend, despite SHR switching over to Fords during the offseason. He will start from the pole and has looked good on the long runs this weekend, too. That has been a trait of the #4 and Kevin Harvick at SHR! This weekend will be no difference, either. Also, Harvick has dominated at this track over the past couple seasons. His numbers are far better than every other driver. There isn't a driver that is even close to him right now. As for this weekend, I thought he looked like one of the best cars on the long run for Saturday's lone practice session. I really do like him to go to victory lane for Sunday's race. He's my pick to win!

My Overall Ranking: 1st

2. Brad Keselowski - I love Brad Keselowski this weekend at Atlanta! He's unloaded very fast and been very happy with his car overall so far. He showed good speed on Friday and qualified in 5th. He came back on Saturday and backed up that speed once again. He was great with the low-downforce package in 2016. He's impressive behind the wheel of a racecar, so no shock that he excels at Atlanta. Remember this is a driver's track. He is one of the drivers you expect to run well here. He has a great car for Sunday's race!

My Overall Ranking: 2nd

3. Joey Logano - Both of the Penske Fords has looked pretty good this weekend at Atlanta! Much like teammate Keselowski, I thought Joey looked very good on Saturday and throughout the weekend. He showed very good long run speed in Saturday's practice session. He was ranked 3rd in terms of 20-best lap average for that session. Only JMac and Chase Elliott had a better average than Logano. The 22 car been awesome here ever since Logano came to Penske in 2013. Since 2013, he's ranked inside the top 2 in every major category. Including average finish, average running position, driver rating, laps led, etc. Simply put, Logano is a great performer here at Atlanta. And remember, Joey been one of the best drivers on this type of tracks over the past three seasons. He is fast this weekend and could have something for the race win before it is over!

My Overall Ranking: 3rd

4. Kyle Busch - Rowdy will roll off from the 3rd position and should be in contention for most of the afternoon on Sunday. Kyle loves this place and he is racing in all three races this weekend. With only two practice sessions this weekend, that is not a bad thing for him. He will have more time on the track than anyone else. Sure different cars and stuff, but you can learn things though. I think he will be fine on Sunday. I don't think know if he will be as good as Harvick, but this is a Rowdy track though. At Atalnta, it is a driver's track. Talent wheelman are the ones that usually do the best here. To no surprise that the 18 car been up front often over the past couple seasons here. Rowdy posted the 15th-best ten lap average in final practice. Should be noted that, he posted that from laps 16-25. Lap times fall off huge here, so it explains why he down on the speed charts. He was 9th in terms of 20-best lap averages.There were only about 10 drivers to be included in this chart, but still need a decent ride to go 20 straight laps in race-trim. Usually if you can post a long 20+ lap run in practice it means you are in the ballpark. Not always, but it is a encouraging sign though. Headed into Sunday's race, I view him as a top 5 fantasy option overall.

My Overall Ranking: 4th

5. Jimmie Johnson - This final spot was down to Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson. I went with Johnson because well he's Jimmie Johnson! The guy that has won the past two seasons. This guy owns this place. He's down on the speed charts this weekend so far, but I am not concerned at all! Johnson will be able to move forward and Chad Knaus will get that car right for him eventually. Will it be the first or second stage? Maybe not. But didn't even isn't the first time the 48 car started mid-pack here. The past two seasons, he has started further back than this (18th). I think Johnson will be just fine and at least be a top 10 contender. If not much more!

My Overall Ranking: 6th

B:

1. Chase Elliott - Elliott has been very fast this weekend and I cannot say that I am shocked at all. I (and many other people) been high on him since he's joined the Cup level. As for this weekend, many experts (including myself) has pinned this as Elliott's win. It would be fitting since this is his hometrack. The 24 car qualified 11th and then posted the best-single lap on Saturday afternoon. He also had the 2nd-best 20-lap average in that same practice session. And Elliott was 9th in terms of best-ten lap average. Tire management is key here and very few can take care of his tires like Elliott can, either. All-around, the 24 car looked good on Saturday. I cannot find anything that say he won't be at least a top 10 driver for the race.

My Overall Ranking: 5th

2. Ryan Newman - Ryan Newman been awesome this weekend! He topped practice on Friday and then looked like one of the strongest cars in qualifying. In fact, he qualified 2nd for Sunday's race. On Saturday, he looked very good once again. He was 6th in terms of fastest-single lap and topped all drivers in terms of ten-lap averages. Now, that usually not Ryan Newman. Newman usually looks average in practice before being consistent in the low-teens during the race. That been the trend since joining RCR. But this weekend, that is not the vibe that I am getting so far. I get the feeling he has a top 10 car and maybe some more. During final practice on Saturday, he described his car as ''speedy''. And it certainly looks pretty speedy, too!

My Overall Ranking: 7th

3. Kurt Busch - Busch is coming off his win at Daytona and usually pretty damn good at Atlanta! From a pure career point of view as a whole, you have to be impressed by what he has accomplished here. In just his past 9 races, he has compiled 6 Top 6 finishes. Including 5 Top 5 finishes with going to victory lane twice. While 10 of the past 13 Atlanta has ended in 11th or better for him. Yeah he's good! So he checks off the momentum and track history's categories. Next thing to look at? How much speed he has shown this weekend? Well he been pretty good! Kurt qualfied inside the top 10 and posted the 3rd-quickest lap in Saturday's practice session. He was ranked 20th in terms of best-ten lap average, but was ranked 5th in terms of 20-best ten lap average. It should be noted that on the best-ten lap average, the first 13 of 16 cars did it in the first 10 laps. Kurt didn't post his ten lap average until laps 26-35. It makes a huge difference here at Atlanta! Even a few laps is huge in tire fall-off, trust me it matters plenty. I think Kurt will be a top 10 guy on Sunday, but not sure beyond that though. We will see though.

My Overall Ranking: 8th

4. Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson could be an interesting fantasy play for Sunday's race. He been good this weekend overall. Not a driver many has talked about, but that 42 car got some speed in it. Both of the Ganassi cars actually look pretty good. Spotter for Kyle Larson said he thought they were pretty good (meaning the 42 car). I will take a word of a spotter, doesn't hurt that his lap times were decent. He's ranked 11th in terms of 10-lap average in Saturday's practice. Why is that important? 9 of the first 10 drivers posted their consecutive laps in the first ten laps of the practice session. Larson's best-ten lap average came on laps 28-39. Only four drivers posted their best-ten lap average later than Larson in that session. There is always some concerns with Larson. As he is that boom or bust play typically. Also his track record is worrisome over the past couple seasons. He does have the speed to be a top 10 guy.

My Overall Ranking: 10th

5. JMac - The 1 car has looked fast this weekend overall. He was quick in the opening practice on Friday and looked strong in qualifying too. He will start from the 4th row with teammate Kyle Larson. On Saturday, he looked good once again. He was 3rd in terms of best-ten lap averages and had the best-20 lap average for the session overall. Last year, his big issue was that he fell off way too much. Both of the CGR cars were like that. I think they will both be alright. I wouldn't be shocked if they both finished inside the top 10 on Sunday. But then again Atlanta is tough place to judge. Based on what we know, I would say that 1 car is a good gamble to roll with!

My Overall Ranking: 12th

C:

1. Ty Dillon - Ty Dillon has looked good this weekend overall. This isn't the first race here for him, either. He ran here last year and finished inside the top 20. This season he is in a better ride to a certain extent. Dillon has shown speed since unloading. He didn't qualify as good as I would had liked but I think he will be fine though. Dillon showed me enough in practice that he is the best option in this grouping of drivers. Dillon should be a top 25 driver with enough upside to snag a top 20 finish, in my opinion.

My Overall Ranking: 21st

2. Erik Jones - I had very high hopes for Erik Jones for the season and thought he would excel on the 1.5 mile tracks. So logically, I figured he would come out looking strong. So far this weekend, he been just a top 20 driver overall. In terms of speed and potential, he has huge upside. For me, it is hard to overlook that fact that he drives for FRR (basically an extra JGR team). Jones should have upside to reach the top 15, but hard to say if he reach that. I would pin him of a top 25 driver with top 20 upside. Simply because I haven't seen enough out of him yet.

My Overall Ranking: 22nd

3. Daniel Suarez - Suarez was expected to struggled since has zero cup experience. For him, I think most of us figured this would be a learning race for him. I think that will still be the case. He wasn't terrible in practice, but he is no Carl Edwards. I think much like fellow rookies Dillon and Jones, I think he is nothing beyond a top 25 to top 20 driver. That is all you can really expect from him honestly. Of course, that is the standard you can expect out of them. There is always the chance they exceed expectations. We will see, but I view Suarez as the weak link though.

My Overall Ranking: 24th

Overall Rankings by tiers -

A:

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Brad Keselowski
3. Joey Logano
4. Kyle Busch
6. Jimmie Johnson
9. Matt Kenseth
11. Martin Truex Jr
13. Dale Jr
14. Denny Hamlin

B:

5. Chase Elliott
7. Ryan Newman
8. Kurt Busch
10. Kyle Larson
12. JMac
15. Ryan Blaney
16. Austin Dillon
17. Clint Bowyer
18. Kasey Kahne
19. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
20. Paul Menard

C:

21. Ty Dillon
22. Erik Jones
24. Daniel Suarez 


***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18