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Last week, things didn't totally go according to plan overall. The sleepers all had potential, but in the end they didn't work out good as they could had. While the dark horses back had top 5 runs. Anyways, onto Las Vegas. A lot of people will look at Atlanta for comparison since they are both 1.5 mile tracks. However, Vegas and Atlanta are very different tracks. Atlanta is a 1.5 mile D-shape oval that sees major tire wear. While, Vegas is a 1.5 mile intermediate track that see limited tire wear. Therefore track position is very key, also passing is a lot tougher to do as well. As you can see, two different type of intermediate tracks. If you think you know what to ''truly'' expect, then you are lying to yourself. Not all drivers that did well last week, will be able to come back and repeat success. Same goes for the drivers that may had struggled last week.
Let's get started!
Sleepers -
Ricky Stenhouse Jr - Stenhouse Jr was my personal favorite sleeper for last weekend's race and he finished 13th. Even though he ran inside the top 10 or top 11 for most of the day. And really, he's never fell below 13th place. I am not sure what happened with him on the final run, as he restarted just inside the top 10. I have high hopes for him once again. He's ran very well here last season and proved that he can be a legit top 15 driver on the intermediate tracks. Much like he was most of last season. That haven't changed much. The bigger issue is that there's too many people shocked by this. Folks, you shouldn't be shocked to learn that Stenhouse ran well last week. He been running top 15 on the cookie cutter tracks on a consistent basis for a year now. Time to wake up and take Ricky Stenhouse Jr seriously on this type of track. I am on the Stenhouse Jr bandwagon and expect a top 10 to top 15 run from him at Vegas!
Austin Dillon - Austin Dillon is a legit sleeper at Vegas. He haven't broken that barrier yet where I consider him a ''threat'' for the win. But last week, he showed us that he is much closer than ever. I was impressed with him last week as he consistency got better throughout the event. In the final 100 laps, he was contending inside the top 10. In fact, he was challenging for the top 5 before losing power in his car. I have high hopes for him once again this weekend. He's ran very well in last season's race here and excelled at places such as Kansas and Michigan as well. Both places, I would consider as ''most similar'' to Las Vegas. In fact, he finished top 6 in every race at Vegas, Kansas, and first Michigan race in 2016. The second Michigan race, I just think the team missed the setup. Otherwise, he's finished 5th or 6th on this kind of surface. In last season's race at Vegas, he was very strong and finished 5th. If I remember right, he's struggled in the middle of the race and running just inside the top 15 or maybe top 20 at one point. Which explains why his ARP (13.0) and driver rating (104.4) were slight down from what I would expected. In the early and late portion, I would say that Dillon was a top 7 driver overall.
Ryan Blaney - Blaney should be enough under the radar to make a nice sleeper pick for anyone looking to be different. He wasn't really much of a factor in last week's race, which should only further give him fantasy value. At Atlanta, he's only spent 14% of the race inside the top 15 and posted 22.0 average running position. So what makes me think he will contend this weekend at Vegas? For starters, he wasn't anything special at Atlanta in 2016, either. Or on the worn-out tracks in general. In fact, on worn-out 1.5 mile tracks, he's only had two top 15 finishes in 2016. Finished 20th or worse in 5 other races. At Atlanta, Charlotte (twice), Texas (first race) and Homestead. On primary similar tracks to Vegas (including Michigan, Vegas and Kansas)? He's posted 9.2 average finish and 10.2 average running position. Last season, he's finished 6th here and had 8.0 average running position. I am for one, was not shocked that Blaney failed to meet expectations at Atlanta. However, I have much higher hopes for him this weekend at Vegas.
Dark Horses -
Chase Elliott - Elliott should be one of the primary drivers that we think of as ''possible'' dark horses this weekend. He had a great top 10 run going here in 2016 and been strong on the 1.5 mile tracks in general throughout his rookie season. And that followed him to Atlanta last weekend. I think Atlanta's quick tire-fall off really fell into his hands, as he is great at tire management. But I doubt, if we see him regress much this weekend. He had a lot of success at Michigan and Kansas last season as well. Pair of top 5 finishes at Michigan and 9th place at Kansas. In the second Kansas' race, he's was very strong but had a tire go down late which ruined his day entirely. Even if you take those sort of things out, I think this lower-downforce package been very good to him. Had pair of 2nd places at Michigan in 2016, while having some potential at Kentucky before a wreck as well. If you take out Kentucky's race. Elliott has a 4.3 average running position at both Michigan races and Atlanta combined. That 4.3 average running position leads the series. Small-sample size, but still. Not to mention, he has had impressive runs at both Daytona and Atlanta. That's called ''momentum'' and it is a very powerful thing in fantasy nascar. It usually pays off to go with the hot hand!
Kyle Larson - I hate listing the same two drivers in back-to-back weeks, but it is hard to overlook the great winning potential that both Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson has. Larson had a shot to win last week at Atlanta, but couldn't quite hold off Brad Keselowski. The 2 car was just too strong for Larson to hold off in the end. A lot of people called him out or laugh at him because he ''supposedly'' threw away the race. He didn't throw away the race, he did what he thought he had to and that was to take away where Brad was strongest. Hence why, he choose to take the top away. Either way, I think Brad would had gotten around him. This weekend, he should offer up another top 10 run. I will say that I don't have as high hopes for him as did at Atlanta. I think the track itself was a big factor in how he's performed. While, I really like him, I don't think he will be a race-winning threat though. Somewhere near borderline top 5, but that's it. Remember, Atlanta is a different kind of track than Vegas. The 42 team struggled here last season. And I am not going solely on his final finishing position. He was nothing beyond a low to mid-teen driver, imo. I definitely agree that this ''low downforce package'' fits Larson to a tee. However, I am not ready to jump the gun on Larson yet. If he comes out and looks really fast then I will definitely be all-in on him. As he has 2.0 average finish on this package dating back to last season's races, excluding Kentucky. He has finishes of 3rd, 1st and 2nd at Michigan and Atlanta. But of course this is also limited data as well. Hard to say how much it matters. Regardless, Larson is a top 10 driver at least this weekend!
***stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheat.com
Have a question?
Email - briggs_garry48@yahoo.com
Twitter - @Garryy12
Last week, things didn't totally go according to plan overall. The sleepers all had potential, but in the end they didn't work out good as they could had. While the dark horses back had top 5 runs. Anyways, onto Las Vegas. A lot of people will look at Atlanta for comparison since they are both 1.5 mile tracks. However, Vegas and Atlanta are very different tracks. Atlanta is a 1.5 mile D-shape oval that sees major tire wear. While, Vegas is a 1.5 mile intermediate track that see limited tire wear. Therefore track position is very key, also passing is a lot tougher to do as well. As you can see, two different type of intermediate tracks. If you think you know what to ''truly'' expect, then you are lying to yourself. Not all drivers that did well last week, will be able to come back and repeat success. Same goes for the drivers that may had struggled last week.
Let's get started!
Sleepers -
Ricky Stenhouse Jr - Stenhouse Jr was my personal favorite sleeper for last weekend's race and he finished 13th. Even though he ran inside the top 10 or top 11 for most of the day. And really, he's never fell below 13th place. I am not sure what happened with him on the final run, as he restarted just inside the top 10. I have high hopes for him once again. He's ran very well here last season and proved that he can be a legit top 15 driver on the intermediate tracks. Much like he was most of last season. That haven't changed much. The bigger issue is that there's too many people shocked by this. Folks, you shouldn't be shocked to learn that Stenhouse ran well last week. He been running top 15 on the cookie cutter tracks on a consistent basis for a year now. Time to wake up and take Ricky Stenhouse Jr seriously on this type of track. I am on the Stenhouse Jr bandwagon and expect a top 10 to top 15 run from him at Vegas!
Austin Dillon - Austin Dillon is a legit sleeper at Vegas. He haven't broken that barrier yet where I consider him a ''threat'' for the win. But last week, he showed us that he is much closer than ever. I was impressed with him last week as he consistency got better throughout the event. In the final 100 laps, he was contending inside the top 10. In fact, he was challenging for the top 5 before losing power in his car. I have high hopes for him once again this weekend. He's ran very well in last season's race here and excelled at places such as Kansas and Michigan as well. Both places, I would consider as ''most similar'' to Las Vegas. In fact, he finished top 6 in every race at Vegas, Kansas, and first Michigan race in 2016. The second Michigan race, I just think the team missed the setup. Otherwise, he's finished 5th or 6th on this kind of surface. In last season's race at Vegas, he was very strong and finished 5th. If I remember right, he's struggled in the middle of the race and running just inside the top 15 or maybe top 20 at one point. Which explains why his ARP (13.0) and driver rating (104.4) were slight down from what I would expected. In the early and late portion, I would say that Dillon was a top 7 driver overall.
Ryan Blaney - Blaney should be enough under the radar to make a nice sleeper pick for anyone looking to be different. He wasn't really much of a factor in last week's race, which should only further give him fantasy value. At Atlanta, he's only spent 14% of the race inside the top 15 and posted 22.0 average running position. So what makes me think he will contend this weekend at Vegas? For starters, he wasn't anything special at Atlanta in 2016, either. Or on the worn-out tracks in general. In fact, on worn-out 1.5 mile tracks, he's only had two top 15 finishes in 2016. Finished 20th or worse in 5 other races. At Atlanta, Charlotte (twice), Texas (first race) and Homestead. On primary similar tracks to Vegas (including Michigan, Vegas and Kansas)? He's posted 9.2 average finish and 10.2 average running position. Last season, he's finished 6th here and had 8.0 average running position. I am for one, was not shocked that Blaney failed to meet expectations at Atlanta. However, I have much higher hopes for him this weekend at Vegas.
Dark Horses -
Chase Elliott - Elliott should be one of the primary drivers that we think of as ''possible'' dark horses this weekend. He had a great top 10 run going here in 2016 and been strong on the 1.5 mile tracks in general throughout his rookie season. And that followed him to Atlanta last weekend. I think Atlanta's quick tire-fall off really fell into his hands, as he is great at tire management. But I doubt, if we see him regress much this weekend. He had a lot of success at Michigan and Kansas last season as well. Pair of top 5 finishes at Michigan and 9th place at Kansas. In the second Kansas' race, he's was very strong but had a tire go down late which ruined his day entirely. Even if you take those sort of things out, I think this lower-downforce package been very good to him. Had pair of 2nd places at Michigan in 2016, while having some potential at Kentucky before a wreck as well. If you take out Kentucky's race. Elliott has a 4.3 average running position at both Michigan races and Atlanta combined. That 4.3 average running position leads the series. Small-sample size, but still. Not to mention, he has had impressive runs at both Daytona and Atlanta. That's called ''momentum'' and it is a very powerful thing in fantasy nascar. It usually pays off to go with the hot hand!
Kyle Larson - I hate listing the same two drivers in back-to-back weeks, but it is hard to overlook the great winning potential that both Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson has. Larson had a shot to win last week at Atlanta, but couldn't quite hold off Brad Keselowski. The 2 car was just too strong for Larson to hold off in the end. A lot of people called him out or laugh at him because he ''supposedly'' threw away the race. He didn't throw away the race, he did what he thought he had to and that was to take away where Brad was strongest. Hence why, he choose to take the top away. Either way, I think Brad would had gotten around him. This weekend, he should offer up another top 10 run. I will say that I don't have as high hopes for him as did at Atlanta. I think the track itself was a big factor in how he's performed. While, I really like him, I don't think he will be a race-winning threat though. Somewhere near borderline top 5, but that's it. Remember, Atlanta is a different kind of track than Vegas. The 42 team struggled here last season. And I am not going solely on his final finishing position. He was nothing beyond a low to mid-teen driver, imo. I definitely agree that this ''low downforce package'' fits Larson to a tee. However, I am not ready to jump the gun on Larson yet. If he comes out and looks really fast then I will definitely be all-in on him. As he has 2.0 average finish on this package dating back to last season's races, excluding Kentucky. He has finishes of 3rd, 1st and 2nd at Michigan and Atlanta. But of course this is also limited data as well. Hard to say how much it matters. Regardless, Larson is a top 10 driver at least this weekend!
***stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheat.com
Have a question?
Email - briggs_garry48@yahoo.com
Twitter - @Garryy12
