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Richmond isn't a track that really benefit the mid-pack drivers like, say, a place such as Bristol did last week. Or Martinsville. Richmond has a lot of similarities to (another shorter-flat track) Phoenix. So if you were doing research this week, you should had been looking there to get a jump on the competition. What can you expect in today's race? Expect a lot of big names to be up at the front sooner or later. I think there will be some comers and goers throughout the event, but in the end, I think the race winner will come from a top 10 starter. More often than not, the winner at Richmond is from a top 10 starter. More specifically, there's a great chance that it will be from a top 5 starter. The past 5 Richmond races, the winner has came from the top 4 starting positions. The front row, itself, has produced the race winner in nearly 1/3 of the time at Richmond!
What's the point of me pointing out of that? Hitting on solid sleepers and dark horses will be what set apart the men and boys. Your average fantasy player will hit on a top driver, but a great fantasy player will find that hidden gem. That's there is where my expertise comes into play. Who are my favorite favorite plays today? Well here's you go!
Sleepers -
Aric Almirola - Aric Almirola is one of my favorite sleepers today. He will start 25th (which makes him a nice play in every format) and looked pretty good overall so far. In final practice, Aric was pretty happy with his car. Richard Petty Motorsports' twitter account said that Aric was overall happy with his car. When looking at the lap times, I would say that he is capable of making it into the top 20 and possibly a little more. Aric probably doesn't hold much fantasy value in standard scoring leagues that only score the final position. However, in deeper scoring leauges, he is someone that I always try to eye. Especially when he qualifies 25th or worse with a decent car.
Ryan Newman - When you take out his win at Phoenix (on pit road gamble), you are a little unimpressed by how Ryan Newman (and RCR in general) has performed. Outside of that Phoenix win, he has 1 top 10 finish. That finish was at Martinsville. Phoenix and Martinsville are categorized in the shorter-flat tracks group. Richmond is as well. So it is no accident that Newman has swept the top 10 on this sort of track. This weekend, he haven't been great, but he haven't been too bad either. I think he is in that next group between 11th-15th. That's typically Newman though. A low-teen driver with upside to snag a top 10 finish. That's exactly the position Newman is in headed into the race, in my opinion.
Kasey Kahne - Kasey Kahne isn't a driver that I like in general. Trust me, I been burned enough in the past to hold dislike toward him. With that said, the 5 team has been bringing quality cars to the track recently. Only problem is Kahne haven't been able to bring it across the line in the top 10 since early March. I am okay with that because it is about the ponetial, not past results. What facts do we know? Kahne has solid speed this weekend. Kahne has a really solid track record here recently. 3 Top 6 finishes in his past 4 races at Richmond. 3 of his last 5 spring races at Richmond also ended in 6th or better. So good track record and good speed in his car. That's good enough to take a flier on him! Would I recommend it? Probably not. But it not the worst idea I have heard this weekend.
Dark Horses -
Clint Bowyer - Clint Bowyer is a very solid dark horse pick this weekend. Remember dark horses are different than sleepers. Sleeper has to do with value and being under the radar. Now, dark horses are drivers that has great potential to win but aren't really expected to win. That right now describes Clint Bowyer to a exact tee. He has potential, but isn't actually expected to win. I will gladly take a shot with Clint Bowyer this weekend at Richmond. He's good this weekend overall. His crew chief said that Bowyer was consistent and they are going to be really good, if they keep it up. I like positive statements like that from a crew chief. Clint also has 2 Top 5 finishes in his past 3 races this season as well. His Richmond's record is pretty solid as well. If you exclude last season's races, he has finished 10th or better in 5 of his last 7 races. When MWR were at their peak in 2012 through 2014, Clint had 3 top 3 finishes in a 5-race span (September 2012 - September 2014). And 4 top 7 finishes in that 6 race span (April 2012- September 2014). Good track record, good speed, a lot of momentum = A dark horse pick to win!
Chase Elliott - Right now is the best time to climb aboard the Elliott's bandwagon! Why? Well, at the moment, it seem like Elliott has hit a snug in the road. The past few races, he haven't led any laps. What made him such a desirable fantasy option last year and early this season was running up front and leading laps. He haven't led a lap since Martinsville. His stock is trending in the wrong direction, due to his potential slipping a little. This weekend, most experts view him as a latter top 10 driver. I would agree with that overall. With that said, it is hard to overlook that he could easily find himself in the top 5 before the checkers. Elliott is one of those drivers that has unlimited upside.
Jamie Mac - Jamie Mac may be my favorite dark horse pick of the weekend. I think he is gonna win before we are in the chase and I think it will come on this kind of track. The 1 car been fast since unloading and look to have a car capable of winning. In practice, the 1 car looked better than the 42. And Larson had a car with top 5 speed. I thought both CGR cars were there with the Gibbs guys. Jamie Mac has a lot of long run speed in his car. Hamlin and Busch may have a little more than him, but he is right there though. I love what Jamie brings to the table. His consisency at Richmond, also makes him a great play for today's race. If you are looking for a solid dark horse pick, then you may not find a better one than Jamie Mac. I think he will challenge for a top 10 finish at least and be close to the top 5.
***All stats from DriverAverages.com
Have a question or want to chat?
Email - briggs_garry48@yahoo.com
Twitter - @Garryy12
Richmond isn't a track that really benefit the mid-pack drivers like, say, a place such as Bristol did last week. Or Martinsville. Richmond has a lot of similarities to (another shorter-flat track) Phoenix. So if you were doing research this week, you should had been looking there to get a jump on the competition. What can you expect in today's race? Expect a lot of big names to be up at the front sooner or later. I think there will be some comers and goers throughout the event, but in the end, I think the race winner will come from a top 10 starter. More often than not, the winner at Richmond is from a top 10 starter. More specifically, there's a great chance that it will be from a top 5 starter. The past 5 Richmond races, the winner has came from the top 4 starting positions. The front row, itself, has produced the race winner in nearly 1/3 of the time at Richmond!
What's the point of me pointing out of that? Hitting on solid sleepers and dark horses will be what set apart the men and boys. Your average fantasy player will hit on a top driver, but a great fantasy player will find that hidden gem. That's there is where my expertise comes into play. Who are my favorite favorite plays today? Well here's you go!
Sleepers -
Aric Almirola - Aric Almirola is one of my favorite sleepers today. He will start 25th (which makes him a nice play in every format) and looked pretty good overall so far. In final practice, Aric was pretty happy with his car. Richard Petty Motorsports' twitter account said that Aric was overall happy with his car. When looking at the lap times, I would say that he is capable of making it into the top 20 and possibly a little more. Aric probably doesn't hold much fantasy value in standard scoring leagues that only score the final position. However, in deeper scoring leauges, he is someone that I always try to eye. Especially when he qualifies 25th or worse with a decent car.
Ryan Newman - When you take out his win at Phoenix (on pit road gamble), you are a little unimpressed by how Ryan Newman (and RCR in general) has performed. Outside of that Phoenix win, he has 1 top 10 finish. That finish was at Martinsville. Phoenix and Martinsville are categorized in the shorter-flat tracks group. Richmond is as well. So it is no accident that Newman has swept the top 10 on this sort of track. This weekend, he haven't been great, but he haven't been too bad either. I think he is in that next group between 11th-15th. That's typically Newman though. A low-teen driver with upside to snag a top 10 finish. That's exactly the position Newman is in headed into the race, in my opinion.
Kasey Kahne - Kasey Kahne isn't a driver that I like in general. Trust me, I been burned enough in the past to hold dislike toward him. With that said, the 5 team has been bringing quality cars to the track recently. Only problem is Kahne haven't been able to bring it across the line in the top 10 since early March. I am okay with that because it is about the ponetial, not past results. What facts do we know? Kahne has solid speed this weekend. Kahne has a really solid track record here recently. 3 Top 6 finishes in his past 4 races at Richmond. 3 of his last 5 spring races at Richmond also ended in 6th or better. So good track record and good speed in his car. That's good enough to take a flier on him! Would I recommend it? Probably not. But it not the worst idea I have heard this weekend.
Dark Horses -
Clint Bowyer - Clint Bowyer is a very solid dark horse pick this weekend. Remember dark horses are different than sleepers. Sleeper has to do with value and being under the radar. Now, dark horses are drivers that has great potential to win but aren't really expected to win. That right now describes Clint Bowyer to a exact tee. He has potential, but isn't actually expected to win. I will gladly take a shot with Clint Bowyer this weekend at Richmond. He's good this weekend overall. His crew chief said that Bowyer was consistent and they are going to be really good, if they keep it up. I like positive statements like that from a crew chief. Clint also has 2 Top 5 finishes in his past 3 races this season as well. His Richmond's record is pretty solid as well. If you exclude last season's races, he has finished 10th or better in 5 of his last 7 races. When MWR were at their peak in 2012 through 2014, Clint had 3 top 3 finishes in a 5-race span (September 2012 - September 2014). And 4 top 7 finishes in that 6 race span (April 2012- September 2014). Good track record, good speed, a lot of momentum = A dark horse pick to win!
Chase Elliott - Right now is the best time to climb aboard the Elliott's bandwagon! Why? Well, at the moment, it seem like Elliott has hit a snug in the road. The past few races, he haven't led any laps. What made him such a desirable fantasy option last year and early this season was running up front and leading laps. He haven't led a lap since Martinsville. His stock is trending in the wrong direction, due to his potential slipping a little. This weekend, most experts view him as a latter top 10 driver. I would agree with that overall. With that said, it is hard to overlook that he could easily find himself in the top 5 before the checkers. Elliott is one of those drivers that has unlimited upside.
Jamie Mac - Jamie Mac may be my favorite dark horse pick of the weekend. I think he is gonna win before we are in the chase and I think it will come on this kind of track. The 1 car been fast since unloading and look to have a car capable of winning. In practice, the 1 car looked better than the 42. And Larson had a car with top 5 speed. I thought both CGR cars were there with the Gibbs guys. Jamie Mac has a lot of long run speed in his car. Hamlin and Busch may have a little more than him, but he is right there though. I love what Jamie brings to the table. His consisency at Richmond, also makes him a great play for today's race. If you are looking for a solid dark horse pick, then you may not find a better one than Jamie Mac. I think he will challenge for a top 10 finish at least and be close to the top 5.
***All stats from DriverAverages.com
Have a question or want to chat?
Email - briggs_garry48@yahoo.com
Twitter - @Garryy12
