Saturday, April 29, 2017

2017 Fantasy Nascar Update (RIR)

Welcome to TimersSports

Fantasy Nascar Update -

1. Matt Kenseth - Let me tell you a thing or two about Matt Kenseth. He isn't a driver that will come out and show his hand in practice or qualifying. He like to keep the people guessing, so when he's start up front with a good car, then watch out! That's exactly what happened this weekend, too. He's started on the pole and a lot of people view him as one of the guys to beat. His car looked pretty strong in final practice and that's a bad sign for the competition. Here's how things has gone when Matt Kenseth has started 3rd or better at Richmond, since joining JGR. In April 2013, he's started on the pole and led 140. Finished 7th that day. In August 2015, he's started 2nd and led 352 laps. Simply dominated the event from lap 1 and won. In last September's race, he's started 3rd and led 3 laps, but finished 38th after wrecking. It should be noted that he was a top 3 driver before hitting the wall. Behind Denny Hamlin and Truex Jr, I would say that he was the best of the rest.

2. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch is fast once again this weekend at Richmond. This is the type of track that the Gibbs cars are at their best right now, in my opinion. They are still searching on the intermediate tracks, but I think the Gibbs camp will be strong in Sunday' race. In final practice, Clint Bowyer said the 18 car was fast as shit. The driver of the No.18 car been a badass this season on the shorter flat tracks. He's dominated Martinsville and had the car to beat at Phoenix. I would consider Phoenix as the most similar track that we visited so far. He was head and shoulders the man there. Kyle had the 8th-best ten lap average in final practice. Rowdy will start from 7th, but I don't expect him to stay there very long though.


3. Brad Keselowski - I like Keselowski more than most do this weekend honestly. He doesn't seem to have a lot of short-run speed, but in final practice he seemed to get better on the long run. He was down on the ten lap average more than I would had liked, but as a run went on it seemed like he just got better and better. That's usually the case with the driver of the No.2 car. Paul Wolf knows how to dail that car in and Keselowski knows how to drive. This week, a lot of people steered away from him. I am not sure if it was because of poor finishes recently here or the egg that he dropped last week. Either way, there wasn't a lot of buzz around him. I was kinda surprised about that honestly. I figured more people would had been on his bandwagon. Outside of Bristol and Daytona, Keselowski been putting up some big-time numbers this season. He will start from the 15th position, but I think he will find himself in the top 5 before it is all over though.

4. Denny Hamlin - Denny Hamlin will start from 16th, but I loved the speed that he's showed in final practice. He was fast on the short run and was pretty good on the long run, too. Some drivers were really good on the short runs and other were really good on the long runs. Hamlin was solid on both. I don't know, if there was another driver that I could say that about. I think a lot of people will overlook him because of that, but I am not. He's won here last fall, after him and Truex Jr dominated the event for the most part. Him having one of the cars to beat shouldn't come as a shock, either. This is one of his best tracks on the schedule and always seems to be pretty good here. With that said, he's seems to be better in the fall races than the spring races. However, I think he is more than capable of finishing inside the top 5, maybe more on Sunday!

5. Kevin Harvick - Harvick always been a pretty good driver here and I don't expect that to change much honestly. I don't think he will really fall off the wagon, even though SHR haven't had the speed they had in recent seasons. In final practice, he was quite a bit down on the ten-lap average chart in 22nd. But he was 16th on the 15-lap average chart and 14th on the 20-lap average chart. His speed and lap times didn't really changed much. It seems to be more consistent than other drivers, hence why he rose up through the field on those charts. While others weren't as consistent and saw their times fall-off and down the charts. Harvick will fine, he will be a top 10 cotender with more than enough upside to challenge for a top 5 finish. He does have back-to-back top 5 finishes, if that makes anyone feel better. Right now, he is still trying to find himself but I think he will be just fine and be a top 10 contender on Sunday.

6. Martin Truex Jr - A lot of people are looking at that fast-ten lap average and saying wow Truex Jr is going to be a stud this weekend. And you know, that very well could happen. But I have some concerns when I look at the data from final practice. His longest run in final practice was about 18 laps, which worries me because the fastest cars were at least 25, most made close to or 30+ laps. Also, he only made 46 laps total for the session. Outside of Ryan Newman, he's ran the few laps in the session among the big-name drivers. That's not always a bad thing, but usually not a great thing though. I view him as a top 10 driver for now. I am by no means writing him off and saying he cannot go and win. He was great here last fall and had the 2nd-best car. However, I am saying there is reason to believe that he may not be that driver this week though. Prove me wrong Martin!

7. Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson will start deeper in the field on Sunday afternoon than normal this season, as he will start from the 18th starting spot. That's nothing new though, as he's started 34th at Texas. Kyle has been a stud all season long, finding himself in the top 5 in every race at some point. More often than not, he's stay there for most of the event. Getting to the front this weekend will be tougher with track position being so tough. However, he has a great car for Sunday's race. He has really good long run speed, which should help him move through the field. I think you need a car like that to get anywhere at this track. Doesn't hurt that Kyle is one of the best at restart this season, too. Larson big issue last season here (in the fall race) was fading on the long runs, but being fast on the short runs. I think the opposite will be true when the green flag waves on Sunday afternoon.

8. Jimmie Johnson - Jimmie Johnson has won back-to-back races now and will look to make it three in a race. However, I don't think that will happen. Yes, Johnson can go on a hot streak like he is on right now. However, I just don't see him winning at Richmond this weekend. A lot of people trying to compare Richmond and Bristol. Just stop right now, you are making yourself look stupid. Outside of both being short tracks, they have nothing in common. Richmond is a short-flat track. If you are going to compare Richmond to something, then compare it to Phoenix. They are similar tracks, not Bristol. Alright back on topic, I think Johnson will be top 10 good, but I am not jumping on the bandwagon yet. He doesn't look to have a top 5 car to me and this isn't a great track for him. In his past 16 races, he has only finished in the top 5 in three 3 races. And only 8 Top 10 finishes in those 16 races. That's not very Jimmie Johnson-like. He does have 5 straight Top 11 finishes here though.

9. Jamie Mac - There a lot of good drivers to choose for this final ranking spot, but I am going with Jamie Mac though. He has a lot of long run speed in his car. He may not be that good on the short runs, but like teammate Kyle Larson, he's stout on the long runs though. He's loves his car on the long run. He was pretty happy with it. Doesn't hurt that he has a pretty good record as well. Over the past two seasons, he has 10.0 average finish and that's good enough for the 8th-best average finish in that span. I think there's a lot to like him this weekend from the 10th starting spot.

10. Joey Logano - I had Logano ranked 3rd in my final overall rankings as I love what he brings to the table, but after I originally posted my article, it was then announced he would start in the back. That was a major bummer for me, as I had to rewrite my thoughts on him. I don't hate Joey by any means, I still think that he will be a fine fantasy pick. Problem is, his most attractive asset was his starting position. Track position is important here and he won't have it to start the race. It will be fun to watch go through the field, but starting dead last is tough no doubt though. Add in that, he haven't blown me away on the speed charts and he get knocked down the my rankings pretty good. I think Logano will still be a top 10 finisher, but there's a lot better options out there. 



****All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheat.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18