2017 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Danica Patrick

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Patrick will enter her 5th-season at SHR as a full-time driver in the Monster Energy Nascar Series, she has struggled at the top level in Nascar. However, she has shown some sort of improvement in just about every season in the #10 car. In 2016, she had her best year ever in terms of average finish but failed to score a top 5 for the first time as a full-time driver, also posted career-low top 10 finishes. She had 0 top 10 finish in 2016, while posting 2 Top 10 finishes in 2015, 3 Top 10 finishes in 2014 and 1 top 10 finish in 2013. You would think her number of Top 20 finishes saw a huge improvement? Nope, barely at all in fact. Her total of top 20 finishes didn't see much of an uptick. In 2016, she had 14 Top 20 finishes, while posting 13 top 20 finishes (2015) and 14 Top 20 finishes in 2013.

Danica should be at her best on the intermediate tracks overall. I say the intermediate tracks, short tracks and shorter flat tracks are all strength for her. Not to say, she is overly impressive at any of them though. However, in 2016 she was very consistent at all three-type of tracks though. I consider the intermediate tracks as her strongest type of track because of the horsepower advantage she has over the competition she is racing. Usually Danica is good for a top 25 finish with upside to finish inside the top 20 on most weekends at them. Her competition mainly will not have anything other than top 25 outlook to offer. Advantage Danica!

The intermediate tracks is a type of track that I expect her to be consistent inside the top 25 with some upside on certain weekends to finish inside the top 20. I would say her ceiling in to finish about 17th or 18th. What specific tracks will she has the best chance to perform well on? Hard to say but I would say most likely at Atlanta, Michigan and Kansas. Those are the three tracks I would try to target her at, where she has the most value. I would say Atlanta is her best track on the schedule for Danica. From a career point of view and more recently, Danica's best track is called Atlanta. Over the past 3 seasons here, she has posted an 14.0 average finish with 3 Top 20 finishes. While in 5 career starts at Atlanta, she has posted 18.4 career average finish with 3 Top 20 finishes. Over her past 4 starts at Atlanta, she has finished 21st or better in all 4 races. Of course, she has finished 16th-21st in 3 of those 4 races. Her 6th place finish in 2014 was obvious better than usual. With that said, she posted an career-best 81.3 driver rating and most-laps spent inside the top 15 as well. In simpler terms, she had her best-performance at Atlanta. With that said, her likely range will be the low-twenties to high-teens as a potential finish!

Michigan is most likely her second-best intermediate track, it is larger than your average intermediate track but she has ran well at Michigan though. I wouldn't say that Michigan is a great track for her, but it is certainly a good enough one for her. Over the past 6 races at Michigan, she has posted 4 Top 21 finishes. With finishes between 17th-21st place. Pretty consistent, with finishes of 23rd and 25th in the other races. With that being said, she has posted better numbers in the June race than August. In the June's Michigan races, she has finishes of 21st (2016), 16th, 17th and 13th. In the August races, she has finished 3 of 4 races outside of the top 20. Not good, but no finishes worse than 25th though. If I was going to use her, then I would try to at the June's Michigan. She seems to have a knack for finishing well in June.

Short tracks are places that Danica was okay in 2016 and should be able to continue to find success with piling up top 25 finishes. I think she is a little safer at Bristol than Martinsville. She doesn't have major upside at either track though. At Bristol, she has been consistent with her finishes recently. Over the past 4 races at Bristol, she has compiled 3 Top 22 finishes. With finishes of 22nd, 9th and 18th. With finishes of 27th (three times) in her other three races. These aren't great numbers by any means and probably won't be anything beyond a top 25 finisher in 2017 either. However, not like she has been terrible either for her skill-set. At Martinsville, she has been unreliable, even though people tend to think she is a solid racer at Martinsville. It is hard to get a good read on her when looking at the numbers overall. She has made 8 starts since start of the 2013 season at Martinsville. In that span, she has been a tough driver to predict. In 4 of 8 those races, she has finishes of 16th, 7th, 17th and 12th. The other four races? 24th, 40th, 34th and 32nd. More recently, she has been good though. Over the past 4 races, she has posted 3 finishes inside the top 24. Including finishes of 16th and 7th. In fact, the spring races has been very kind to Danica overall. In 4 spring races (in March/April), she has posted 3 finishes of 16th or better. In the fall time (October races), she has posted 3 finishes of 24th or worse. Best result came in 2013 of 17th place.

The shorter flats will be another place where Danica is good enough but not really impressive at, but she could be an asset if you know how to use her in your fantasy format though. New Hampshire is her best flat track overall honestly. Since 2014, she has been pretty good at this place. When looking at it, over the past 6 races. In that span, she has finished 22nd or better in 4 of 6 races. Including a pair of finishes well in the teens. In 2016, she had finishes of 18th and 14th. She perform wasn't on par with that, but she got good results regardless. Also in that 6-race span, she has finished 24th or better in every single race. Pretty good, other than that DNF in August 2015.

She also has been good at Richmond and Phoenix as well. At Richmond, she been very good at the fall races recently. Over the past 3 races in the fall time, she has finished between 16th-19th place. The other 5 races at Richmond? 25th-34th. Not good numbers overall, but still it is something about the fall-time with her that she is getting some quality finishes. With that said, she has also performed better in the fall time than the spring time. So it is not like she has lucked into the finishes. I mean she has to a certain extend, of course. However, she been worthy of low-twenties performances. As always she will have that top 20 upside. So that makes sense, she has been able to finish in the middle to high teens. She has been good at Phoenix overall, I would say. In 9 career starts, she has posted an 26.3 average finish with 3 Top 20 finishes. However, she has been better lately. Over the past 5 races at PIR, she has posted 3 finishes of 22nd or better. All three of those finishes has been between 16th-22nd. Over the past couple seasons, that seems to be the range of Danica's good finishes. 16th-22nd is her likely outcome if she has a good race. Other than that, you can expect finishes outside of the top 24 and worse. But I can more often than not it will be in the high-teens and low-twenties.

Larger flats will be a real struggle for Danica Patrick in 2017, as it has been a consistent problem spot for her. She has been terrible at both tracks! I mean, she has been just trash and I don't see them being a good asset for her as a fantasy option. Statically speaking, Indy and Pocono ranked as her two worst tracks. I don't mean in the bottom 5 tracks, but worst of the worst. Ranked 22nd and 23rd of 23 tracks on the schedule. There's some serious issues with her on this type of track. In 4 career starts at Indy, she has never finish better than 22nd place. With that said, her finishes rate has been trending in the right direction. 30th place in her debut in 2013 and 42nd in 2014. How about the past two seasons? Well she has finishes of 27th (2015) and 22nd in last season race. So she has improved in the past three races at Indy. Always a good thing to see in fantasy stats. She has been much worse at Pocono though, as I have considered it as her worst-track on the schedule. In 8 career races, she has posted an 29.7 average finish. In her first 5 starts at the track, she finished no better than 29th place. Yet, no finishes worse than 37th. Yes, I know not like she set the bar high or anything. But she has shown improvements lately. Over the past three races at Pocono, she has posted two finishes between the 16th-22nd place range. Not saying that's anything special but it far better than earlier in her career.

Road courses and Plate tracks likely won't be a strength for Danica Patrick in 2017, but I do think she has the potential to have some quality runs overall. She not anything special at either type of track like so many people want to believe. So not sure why but people think she is a great road course racer. Sorry, but she is not but better than average though. She ran Open-wheel before Nascar, but that doesn't mean anything really. Now someone like Juan Pablo Montoya, Tony Stewart, even Casey Mears than sure. Those former open-wheel drivers were (in Mears' case is) successful in the transition. Danica? Not so much. With that said, she has been decent when comparing to most other tracks. In 8 career starts combined at Sonoma and Watkins Glenn, she has posted 4 Top 20 finishes. She is better at Watkins Glenn though, as it is the easier track of the two. In 4 races at WGI, she has finished between 17th-21st. Pretty consistent, again not great but still pretty good compared to most other tracks. At Sonoma, she has been okay I guess. Over the past 3 seasons, she has posted 3 finishes of 24th or better. Including finishes of 18th (2014) and 19th in last season's event. So over the past 6 races, she has finished 24th or better in every race on the road course. That's pretty much lines up with what to expect from her at most tracks in 2017. I wouldn't expect a lot from her at the Plate tracks overall. Either track has been specifically great for her, at best she is looking at top 25 potential. She may luck into a top 15 or so, but she is really not that good of a plate racer honestly. I am not even going to dig into the data on her, since we all pretty much know what to expect.

Overall in 2017, I would expect Danica to be at his best on the intermediate tracks, short tracks and shorter flats. She won't be anything special at any of those tracks. Most likely her range on any given weekend will be from 16th-24th place. That been the trend over the last couple seasons for her, especially in 2016. That is the range you can expect out of her, if she has a good race and stays out of trouble. She will also run pretty well at the road courses as well. She has been very consistent inside the top 20 to top 24 over the past 3 seasons. So I would expect similar results in 2017 as well. As far the bad days, she will likely struggle at the plate tracks and larger flats the most. I think she could have good days on both type of tracks, but I am not banking on it very much though. More than likely, she will be inconsistent and have nothing beyond top 25 outlook. In 2017, I think the key for Danica will be consistent and making improvements on 2016. If she can make progress and see improvements, then it should be a overall successful season for her in 2017!

**All stats are from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Aric Almirola

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Aric Almirola will be back behind the wheel of the No.43 car for RPM in 2017 as the only driver for the organization being field in Nascar's top series. A lot of people says that means RPM is headed towards the crapper, but that may not be true. It could be an indication but I disagree though. I think this is simple business decision. They cannot find a driver with the proper funding, so they are simply focusing on one car. It's like having an struggling dealership and then deciding to open up another at a different location. If you cannot afford to keep up with the competition with one dealership, it is pointless to have another one, too. That's basically what is happening here. RPM realizes, they need to focus their attention on the 43 team so that what they will do.

I think another reason for Aric Almirola seeing his worst year ever (literally) with RPM was because they started to build their own chassis in 2016.I am not sure if that was a really smart thing to do honestly, as it takes a lot to start building your own chassis for your cars. With that said, I think we will see improvements with it, since they have a year under their belts with building them. Hopefully in 2017, their chassis in the cars will be improved and should lead to better performance overall.

Aric Almirola big strength in 2017 will be at specific tracks and I think it is obvious at the tracks he can perform his best at. Almirola runs very well at smaller tracks in length. So the shorter flats and short tracks in general fits his style the best overall. Both short tracks in Bristol and Martinsville are probably his best tracks overall. If you have closely followed him the past couple years, then you realize he has ran well at both venues. Martinsville is probably his better track though. Since joining the #43 team in 2012 (10 races in total), he has finished 9 times in 21st or better. Which means, his only bad finish was back in last spring (40th). More impressive? Over his past 6 races at Martinsville, he has compiled 4 finishes of 16th or better overall. Over the past 10 races, he has finished 16th or better in 6 of 10 races. He has been just as good at Bristol as well. Over his past 7 races at Bristol, he has posted 5 top 17 finishes. With only two bad races with finishes of 34th and 41st. Over the past 6 races, he has posted 4 Top 17 finishes. With solid finishes of 14th, 17th, 13th and 3rd. Of course, he also had two poor finishes in that span. But when Aric finishes out races at Bristol, it usually leads to good things. Like finishing 14th in last summer race, during a down year.

The shorter flats will be the another primary strength for Aric Almirola in 2017! These venues I refer to as ''shorter flats'' are Richmond, Phoenix and New Hampshire. Aric has a history of running well at all three really, but statically speaking Richmond is his best shorter flat though. He been great since joining RPM and been recently and career point of view both a great track for him. Over the past 8 races, he has finished 21st or better in every race. More recently, he has finished 4 of 6 races in 17th place or better. Including finished 17th in last fall's race at Richmond. Statically speaking, he performed better in the spring race at Richmond last year but finished better in the fall race. He was awful in the fall race with only 63.6 driver rating. That's just garbage anyway you put, especially since he wasn't involved in any wrecks. Doesn't matter though, because he got the finished he needed.

Phoenix is probably his next-best track after Richmond. I would put it in his top 5 of tracks overall. I say it after Martinsville, Atlanta, Bristol and Richmond. Statically speaking, I would consider Phoenix as one of his best tracks since joining RPM. In 12 career starts, he has never finished worse than 27th. In fact, he has never had a DNF at Richmond or Phoenix. With career-worst finishes of 26th and 27th. Since joining the #43 team back in 2012 (10 races ago), he has finished 9 of those 10 races in 19th or better. In fact, his lone non-top 19 finish is 22nd place from this past Phoenix race in 2016. Pretty good, right? You bet! He is very consistent overall! Over the past 4 races, his finishes look a lot like this: 22nd, 13th, 10th and 19th place finishes. Those are very good for a driver like Aric! Then of course there is New Hampshire, another very good shorter flat for him. Of course, this is the only flat track that he has posted and DNF at too. That was during the year he made the chase and he pancaked the wall very hard. He was running just outside of the top 15 in that race. When looking rest of his numbers, they are impressive! Over the past 4 races (minus his wreck), he has posted finishes of 17th, 19th, 15th and 6th. If we take out that wreck, his worst finish ever with the #43 team is 28th place. New Hampshire might be his best shorter flat over the past couple seasons (minus the wreck), with that said they are all pretty close when comparing the numbers. I don't know if there is one is in front of the other, he will be a strong performer at all three shorter flats, folks!

Aric is a hidden gem on the plate tracks, okay laugh and go ahead but it is the truth. No, he really is! Don't believe? Okay fine! Let's dig into some stats at Daytona and Talladega! First off from a career point of view, most drivers' worst average finishes are at the plate tracks. Aric? For him, Talladeaga is ranked as his 6th-best track and Daytona as his 14th-best track (of 23) in terms of average finish. Usually those are pretty indication for a driver, if he is a good plate racer or not. Talladega is his better track and has the numbers to prove it as well.

If there is a track (not on the short tracks or shorter flats) you want to unload Aric at, it is most likely at Talladega. As he has posted an career-average finish of 19.8 with 9 Top 20 finishes in 14 starts. He isn't one of those drivers that will dominate up at the front, but he has the abilities to finish out races for some reason. In 10 career races with No.43 team (since 2012), he has finished 16th or better in 6 of 10 races. More recently, he has finished 3 of the past 4 inside the top 16 as well. Over the past 6 races, he has finished 16th or better in 4 races. Last spring, he finished in 27th place. But that because someone spun in front of him on a restart and he got damaged. His day was just downhill from there. He is not quite as good at Daytona, but his numbers are still damn good with RPM overall. He had two DNF in his first 4 starts with the No.43 team but since has been rock solid. Over the past 5 races at Daytona, he has actually been a bit better than he been at Talladega. Over the past 5 races at Daytona, he has compiled 4 finishes of 15th or better. Including an win! His past 5 races at Daytona looks like this: 15th, 12th, 34th, 15th and 1st. Pretty good, right? Overall yeah , Aric is very consistent on the plate track. Rarely will he be up front, but he is almost a lock for a quality top 16 finish. I will take that type of security all day long in Fantasy Nascar!

Intermediate tracks and Larger flats will be a big weakness for him in 2017, I think. No disrespect to Petty or Aric, but they just don't have enough of speed to be legit contender at either type of track. The intermediate tracks were a real troublesome spot for them. There were times, where they couldn't even qualify inside the top 30. That's bad! Of course, most times they moved up through the filed but that's not the point. They were a quality team in 2015 at this type of track. Never anything special, but you could bank on that top 18 to top 22 potential on a weekly basis. There were a couple good races by Aric at places like Atlanta and Kansas, but outside of that you were like blah that's just garbage. And it really was, the speed in the No.43 was really down and it really shown in practice and in the races.

There is only one real track I would consider him at on the intermediate tracks and that is Atlanta. It is arguably one of his best track in the series. When looking his career numbers, of course we only visit there once per year too though. Still, he has posted some awesome numbers overall. Over the past 3 races at Atlanta, he has compiled an average finish of 11.3 with 3 Top 15 finishes. In 6 career races, he has compiled 4 Top 20 finishes and career-worst 32nd place. He performed very well at Atlanta in 2014 and 2015. Performance-wise, he had his best races of his career there. Last season? Blah really. He didn't really run well, but lucked into a quality finish somehow. I didn't even think Aric could explain to Aric how they pulled that off. Dover would be another track, I would consider him at though. It is not your type intermediate track, but it is still considered as an intermediate track though. Only 1-mile long in length and Aric probably runs better there than any other track on schedule. Statically speaking, Dover is his best track and he loves the place. In 16 career races, he has compiled 16.2 average finish. In those 10 races, half of those races has ended in 16th place or better. Right around his average finish, too. He has been really recently with 3 Top 16 finishes over his past 4 races. Including finishes of 16th, 31st, 5th and 5th. In fact, during that 10-race span, he has posted 3 Top 6 finishes. He has more top 6 finishes there than at any other track. The other 22 tracks, he has an combined 7 Top 6 finishes.

At the larger flats, he will struggle at and big reason is the horsepower disadvantage he has. Aric will not be nothing more than an low-20 driver with little upside to be a top 20 contender. I think he will be a little better at Indy though. With that said, he has been straight trash at both tracks. In 15 career starts, he has posted just 4 Top 20. That's less than 30% cracking inside the top 20. For crying out loud, that's a whole new level of bad. I mean, he isn't in good equipment but still you are doing something serious wrong if you are posting those kind of numbers. At Indy, he started off his career with 2 Top 20 finishes of 17th and 19th. Since? Finishes of 21st, 38th and 27th. At Pocono, he has 2 Top 20 finishes over the past three races. So he is trending the right direction, correct? Well sort of, he also has 3 DNFs in that span as well. He was better off earlier in his career at Pocono. With 4 Top 22 finishes in his first 5 starts at Pocono. His highest-driver rating in a race is 68.0 over the past 5 races at Pocono. Followed by an 61.3 driver rating. Driver rating shows an strength of an driver's performance. Aric has been straight bad overall. Anything below 70 is unacceptable to me for him.

Road courses will be another weak spot for Aric Almirola, he has never been any good at them and I really don't expect anything to be different in 2017, either. With his equipment level, it is hard to see him being anything beyond a top 25 driver. In 12 career starts on the road courses (Sonoma and WGI), he has only posted 5 Top 20 finishes. His best race at Sonoma was back in 2015, when he finished 14th place. Which is by far an career-best. He also posted and 73.0 driver rating for that event, also an career-best as well. Otherwise, he has only one other top 20 finish and that was 20th place, back in 2013. He has finishes of 27th and 23rd in the other two races at Sonoma in 2014 and 2016. He has been a little better at Watkins Glenn, but that's not shocking though. As Watkins Glenn (WGI) is the easier track to run on. Sonoma takes more skill to master and be successful. Over the past three races (3 seasons), he has compiled 2 Top 20 finishes. With high finish of 16th place, back in 2015. He actually been pretty good when looking at WGI. Over the past 5 races at WGI, he has compiled 3 finishes of 18th or better. Not great, but not terrible either for him. He was terrible last year at both track. With finishing 27th at both Sonoma and Watkins Glenn.

Overall, I don't expect a lot from Aric Almirola. He will have his good days and bad days, all of that could depend on how much the No.43 team improves. I think we will see some noticeable improvement but not enough to make a major difference though. His best days will come on the shorter flats, short tracks and plate tracks. They are all places where he will have top 20 potential and enough of upside to score top 15 finishes. More often than not, history in last couple seasons says if he stays out of trouble on those track, then he will have a good chance at the top 16. Aric worst days will be on the larger flats and intermediate tracks. I think the intermediate tracks will be tough early on, but hopefully they find speed as the season goes on. If they do, he becomes a good sleeper for fantasy players. If not, he is just fool gold in most fantasy formats. Not much else to say, I guess other than it will be interesting to see how the season shakes out for Aric!

**All stats are from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Preivew: Erik Jones

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Erik Jones will make the move to the Monster Energy Nascar Series (MENS) Top Series in 2017 and drives for the #77 team and FRR. This is ideal situation for Joe Gibbs Racing probably. They have current drivers whom all has ran well over the past 2 seasons. While FRR (Gibbs' alliance member) wants to add an second team. What better fit than to loan out promising Nascar prospect Erik Jones? There is none, because he is probably the most ready driver we had seen since Denny Hamlin back in 2006.

Erik Jones (in my opinion) has the potential to be the first legit winner as a rookie in Nascar's top series in quite awhile. And I mean competitively running up front and winning, not lucking into a race win. There's has been quite a few of them over the years. Anyhow, I really do like Erik Jones. He brings so many things to the table, but what stands out is how mature he is as a driver. He is one of the most well-rounded drivers overall. The make of him is just impressive. He can really wheel a car and can run well at just about every type of track. Not only that, but he will also be in the best-equipment available too. If you were impressed by Chase Elliott last year, then expect to have your socks blown off by Erik Jones. I think he can win a race and make the chase with the #77 team and then some. Just like any rookie, he will have his bad days. But Jones is one of those young dudes who don't shy away from the spotlight. He always seems to be clam and collected. That's key for a young driver, in my opinion. For Jones' sake, hopefully that translate to the top series for him.

The intermediate tracks will be likely a very strong spot for Erik Jones as a driver in 2017. Not only has he excelled at them in the lower series, but he be in the same type of equipment in 2017 as he was the last couple years. Sometimes, going to cup means you lose your top equipment which will really hurt a driver. Not Jones though. He will be in a top 10 car, right off the bat. Jones is ready for this, too. He is not like some of these drivers out here, thrown into a situation that he cannot handles. H didn't get any starts with JGR or FRR in 2016, but he did make an start back at Kansas in place of Kyle Busch though. How did he do? He was running inside the top 5 with the #18 car before he blew an tire. He was running like 4th at the time. That's impressive for his first start with literally very little time with a Cup car. Then he made another start back in late 2015 at Texas. That was the race, that Matt Kenseth was forced to miss because of suspension. He did alright in that race. Pretty good actually! He started 6th, posted 10th-best driver rating (92.6) and finished 12th.

Overall, the intermediate tracks should be an major strength for young Erik Jones. Not only will he be a top 10 contender (or at worst low-teen like contender), but he will have major upside on a weekly basis. Anytime, you put a driver like Erik in top equipment then you should expect the best case possible. He is one of those drivers whom can reach his true potential. I expect Jones to go to victory lane this season and I think it will most likely come on an intermediate track. Personally, I am expecting it to happen on an 1.5 mile track.

Flats tracks in general should be another strength for him, right behind the intermediate tracks. I think he will be a little better on the larger flats than the shorter flats though. I just get a feeling, he is one of those drivers that could excel at the large tracks more quickly because of his horsepower advantage. I think him being back by JGR will make him a quality driver at Pocono and Indy. Usually having that horsepower advantage gives a leg up on all of the 2nd-tier teams like RCR, CGR and RFR. Teams like Penske, HMS and Gibbs will be in the best position at the larger flats. Jones is basically an extra JGR car, so he will get to benefit from the horsepower they bring to places like Pocono and Indy. It should be huge for him, as he should be able to contend for top 10 finishes or at worst in the lower-teens. I say top 15 is likely for him easily at Indy and Pocono. I say he will have a better shot at Indy though. Pocono is just a tough track in general to truly master.

The shorter flats will be also an strong spot for him as well. I think it will be a type of track, where he more often than not hover inside the top 10 or just outside of it. He is familiar with them too, as he made a name for himself on them coming through the Nascar ranks. As Jones get experience on them, expect his performance on them to be standout-like and his finishes should improve as well. The first time around may not be perfect for him, but once we return I would have far higher standards for him. If he can get top 12 or something the first time around, then second time around his upside should flirt with the top 7 or 8. Experience is key as a rookie. Usually the first time around (of the tracks we visit twice), it about logging laps. The second time around it will be much easily. Commonly drivers see good amount of improvements too. I would expect top 12 to top 14 potential out of him in general on the flat racetracks honestly.

Short tracks will be hard to say about him, it is a tricky type of track for young drivers like Jones. Many drivers will struggle to be consistent because these races are usually filled with cautions. You can easily get caught up in someone's else mess and ruin your day. Also these tracks aren't easy to master, either. I say he will have a better chance to run well at Bristol than Martinsville though. I think Martinsville is one of the toughest tracks on the schedule to run well at. Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Austin Dillon, and Ryan Blaney all struggled to run well at Martinsville in their rookie years. I personally don't think Jones will be any different. He is in better equipment than most of them, but still I am not sure how much it will matter. Most drivers will get better here as they gain more track time at it. For now, Jones will likely be a top 20 driver at Martinsville.

 Road courses and Plate tracks are the tracks that I would try to avoid with Erik Jones overall. They are venues where I expect him to struggle. More so on the road courses, to be honest. No disrespect towards Jones but I am not sure if he is that good of a road course racer. I say that because he don't really have that much experience with them. It is one thing to run well at short tracks, but it is another to find success at road courses though. They are a whole new animal to deal with. Also he has never raced at Sonoma before. So it will make it tricky for him, no doubt. He raced at Watkins Glenn in the NXS though. Also, Jones doesn't really fit the mole as a road course racer. He was average in the lower series, the cup level will be even tougher. Plate tracks will also be tough because he is not a driver whom get lucky a lot. If you watched him last season in NXS, then you already know his ''luck'' isn't that good. With FRR? That's a bad combination to me. 

Overall, I expect Erik Jones to be one of the best rookies we have seen in quite awhile. He will have his bad days, but most times it will be countered by another impressive finish. His best days early in the season should be inside near the top 5 and his bad will be when he doesn't finish the race on the lead lap. Jones is a bad luck driver, so I fully expect him to find trouble. But as he gain experience, he should be able to limit the mistakes. Which is why I am expecting him to get better as the season goes on. Jones biggest asset is his maturity behind the wheel. He is so talented and doesn't drives like he is 20 years old. He drives like a vet and that's so impressive. Jones best days will likely be on the intermediate tracks and flats in generals. His worst performances will likely be on the road courses and short tracks. In 2017, I have very high hopes for him and personally I would be disappointed if he didn't reach victory lane. In his equipment, I think him getting to victory lane is almost a must. He has the talent, the knowledge and the equipment to get it there. It just up to him to find a way to make it happen honestly.

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Ty Dillon

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Ty Dillon will make the jump to full-time in the Monster Energy top series in 2017, as he joins the #13 team. Dillon has been apart of the RCR's lower series racing programs in recent years and will look to go full-time with the big boys in 2017. Clearly, Germin Racing isn't RCR or do they have anything close to that to offer. But RCR owner's Richard Childess (grandfather of Ty Dillon) will give a stable amount of support to the #13 team in 2017. They were getting quite a bit already, but I would expect them to get even more now. Personally, I believe the chance to improve their performance was the big reason they took RCR up on their business idea. Also, the 13 team were getting a lot of support already. So it's only makes perfect sense that they do the bidding for the hand that feeds them.

Ty Dillon will struggle more often than in the 2017 season, he will have his good days and bad. But unfortunately for him, the bad days will occur more often for him. Dillon is talented no doubt about it. I think he can be better than his brother long-term, but short-term he will struggle to match-up. The No.13 team equipment will no doubt slow down his progression as a driver. Many people has put him up there with another memorable rookies in recent years. However, Ty Dillon doesn't have the equipment of Chase Elliott, the experience of Austin Dillon or the talent of Kyle Larson. You could add Stenhouse and Blaney to that list as well. Those drivers I listed there were rookies that had some sort of those combinations. I think it is important to have talent and experience, but it means nothing without the proper equipment honestly. Ty lackluster equipment will hold him back, no doubt!

Shorter racetracks will be the likely venues that Ty Dillon has the most success at in 2017. Dillon was a stronger performer in the lower series on the intermediate\ tracks in the lower series, but the 13 team won't be able to offer that for him though. Most of us know what the No.13 team can do and cannot do. We know that they are more suited to set up cars on shorter tracks and the shorter flats. They have proven, they can be top 20 to top 25 contenders on a weekly basis on these type of tracks. Why? It usually take less horsepower to run on these shorter tracks. And Dillon just had the ablities to avoid trouble it seems. So that's definitely helps. I personally think, with additional help from RCR they will be able to get Dillon some solid runs in 2017. And there's a good chance it will come on the shorter racetracks on the schedule.

The intermediate tracks is a question mark to me, some people say he will be fine on these intermediate tracks. However, I am just not buying into that. I mean, what really helped the 13 team in years past was the experience of Casey Mears. But now, Dillon is in the driver seat. So that experience isn't there anymore. Dillon will bring additional funding with him from RCR, but they will take a hit in the experience category. Realistically, Dillon best days will come when he finishes in the high-teens to low-20s. I say on average weekend, Dillon will hover from 22nd-28th place. That is the range, I would say that you can expect most of finishes to come in. He is a young driver, so the setups won't be too aggressive for him. So I say a good weekend for early on will be about 23rd to 25th place. I am not expecting him to get many top 20 finishes early on, espeically on the intermedate tracks.

His goal on the intermediate tracks, especially in the first half of the year should be getting top 25 finishes and establishing top 25 consistency. If he cannot establish that, then he holds little value in most fantasy formats. With all of that said, we have no idea how good the No.13 team will be with Ty Dillon behind the wheel. So we cannot really say for sure what to expect from him. We can make all of the predictions we want, but none of us really know. If he looks similar to when he was in the No.95 car last year, then he should be in good shape then for the most part. He ran some good races in the top 25 range. Overall, my hopes aren't terribly high for him on the intermediate tracks. But I hope success my standards. Quite frankly, he most likely will.

Larger Flats will be another question mark for him, but I think he will be okay on them for the most part. He doesn't have a lot of experience with them, however I hope he does well. It seems like the Dillon bros have a likeness for these large racetracks for some reason. So hopefully, that means something for success for Ty Dillon in 2017. Pocono has been a strong spot for the No.13 team in recent seasons. With Casey Mears, they finished 21st or better in 3 of 5 races. So if they can finish near the top 20 with Mears, then it should only means good things for Ty Dillon. I feel good about that to be honest. Dillon also finished 21st at Pocono in the #95 car last season, so that helps makes his case for Pocono's success. Need more convincing? He finished 3rd place in his lone NXS start in 2016 there. He started and finished 3rd. He wasn't bad in NXS at Indy either. In 3 starts, he has posted 6.3 average finish with 101.7 driver rating and lowest finish of 9th. Sure it was in top equipment, but it doesn't change the fact he ran well at both places. I would say it could translate into something in the low-20s for Dillon. Maybe a little better than too, but I wouldn't have too high of a bar though.

Plate tracks will definitely be a strong suit for him. He found a lot of success in 2016 and previously on this type of track in the lower series. Not to mention, the No.13 team has also found plenty of success in recent years at both Daytona and Talladega. Dillon is one of those young driver who just understands plate racing. He is one of those drivers who seems to get lucky a lot too, so I would put plate races under a strength for him, no doubt. Dillon won't have many chance for a top-tier finish, so I would try to take advantage of the shots when he does. The racing at Daytona and Talladega will help him with that. And like I said earlier, the No.13 team isn't stranger to pull off great finishes at these tracks, either. Could be a good combo in 2017!

Road courses will be a weak link for Ty Dillon in 2017. The No.13 team has found a lot of success in years past at both Watkins Glenn and Sonoma. But make no mistake, Casey Mears is an hidden gem on them. Ty Dillon isn't a driver who stands out to me as a good road course racer. In less equipment than in his NXS days, well things will be tough on him at both road courses. At best, he will be a mid-20s contender and finisher. If he can pull of that, then it will likely end up being a win for him. I would try to avoid him on these type of tracks. I personally believe Dillon will have some of his worst races on the road courses.

Overall, I expect Dillon to have good days and bad ones. There are two questions I need answered from Dillon and the No.13 team. How will the No.13 team perform with Dillon (and extra support from RCR) behind the wheel. And second, how will the lack of experience effect the 13 team? Mears biggest asset was he had the experience at every track at the highest level. Dillon doesn't have that, I believe it will hurt them a little. But how much is the question though. I think his best days will be on the shorter racetracks overall, along with the plate tracks as well. With the intermediate tracks and road courses being where he has his worst days. Especially the road courses overall. I think the intermediate tracks will be mostly in the lows-20 to middle-20s for Dillon (finish wise), but his best days it could be in the high-teens. I say they will be very unlikely though, except when there a couple crashes. Otherwise, you should be expecting finishes in the 20s. I say around 25th will be the average for him. Headed into 2017, you cannot expect the world from him. But don't write him off too early, I think as he get more experience in 2017, he will become a better driver.

**All stats are from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Dale Jr

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: Dale Jr

Car #: 88

Make: Chevy

Season Debut: 2000 (First-Full Season)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 595

# of Career Poles: 13

# of Career Wins: 26

# of Career Top 5s: 148 

# of Career Top 10s: 252

# of Career DNFs: 60 

# of Career laps led: 8,189 

Career Average Finish: 15.5

Career Average Start: 16.0

# of 2016 Wins: 0

# of 2016 Top 5s: 5

# of 2016 Top 10s: 6 

# of 2016 Poles: 0

# of 2016 DNFs: 4 

# of 2016 laps led: 53

2016 Average Finish: 15.6

2016 Average Start: 15.3

2016 Fantasy Recap - Dale Jr had an terrible year overall. He only was able to run in 18 of the 36 races, before an concussion put him out in the 2nd half of the season. Prior to that, he didn't really impress me too much. That 88 team was struggling to find speed and only seems to get worse when HMS lost speed after May. He didn't score a win and only posted 6 top 10 finishes in 18 races he completed in. Dale Jr looked off for most of the year, but had his best race of the season probably at Phoenix. Overall, there wasn't a lot to be thankful for if you were an Dale Jr fan. That team looked off and so did Dale Jr. And him being put out to injury only further made his 2016 campaign that much worse. I cannot say a lot of good things about him, in fact he was terrible on the plate tracks. And that's typically his bread and butter. Not in 2016, so that right there says a lot and probably sums up his year. I think Dale is ready to put 2016 behind him!

Strong Tracks - Daytona, Phoenix, Pocono, Michigan, Atlanta and Martinsville

Weak Tracks - Charlotte and Homestead

Yahoo Grouping Tier: A-list Grouping

2017 Fantasy Outlook - Dale Jr had a very tough 2016 season, personally I am not even going to take his stats into consideration too much. That 88 team was just off for most of the year, they didn't have many good runs to show for. Nor did Dale, so I am just going to chalk that up as a lost season overall. In 2017, I think we will see a bound back year from Dale Jr. HMS was running better at end of last year and hopefully for Dale's case, that will continue. The intermeidate tracks will likely be a solid type of track. He seems to excel at them because of the horsepower advantage but overall he is just really top 10 consistent. He should do well on the flats in general as well. Phoenix and Pocono stand out as his best tracks. His best two tracks over the past couple years has been Pocono and Phoenix. One is a larger flat (Pocono) and the other one is an shorter flat (Phoenix). Indy, Richmond and New Hampshire are more hit or miss. He has made good runs at all of them venues recently, but doesn't have a specific stand out run though. Plate tracks obviously will be his strongest type of track, but I don't think I need to mention that. He will run very well at both Daytona and Talladega. Unless something goes wrong like last year. Road courses are also becoming an area of strength for Dale Jr. I thought it was a fluke at first, but he is starting to deveolp into a nice little road course racer. Overall, I thought a bounce back year for Dale Jr in 2017. He will be very consistent, but will have a lack of upside most weekends. There will be certain tracks that he will have top 5 upside and possibly contend for the wins. Those tracks are most likely at Datyona, Talladega, Phoenix and Pocono.

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Martin Truex Jr

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: Martin Truex Jr

Car #: 78

Make: Toyota 

Season Debut: 2006 (First-Full Season)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 405

# of Career Poles: 12

# of Career Wins: 7

# of Career Top 5s: 48 

# of Career Top 10s: 134

# of Career DNFs: 46

# of Career laps led: 4,261 

Career Average Finish: 17.3

Career Average Start: 15.6

# of 2016 Wins: 4

# of 2016 Top 5s: 8

# of 2016 Top 10s: 17 

# of 2016 Poles: 5

# of 2016 DNFs: 4

# of 2016 laps led: 1,809

2016 Average Finish: 13.9

2016 Average Start: 9.1

2016 Fantasy Recap - Martin Truex Jr was a dominant driver at times during the 2016 season, but more often than not he would find some terribly bad luck. Unspeakable bad luck really, the type of luck you think the races were rigged for him to lose. They weren't but at times you would think they were though. From his dominance at Kansas to his shit luck at Pocono with a stupid fast racecar, Truex season can be summed up with bad luck. He won 4 times, but it felt like he should had won 10 or 12 times because how fast he was a on a weekly basis. He stood out at the intermediate track early and never really let it go! Every time we were at an intermediate track, he was one of the cars to beat. And as the season went on, he started to become a dangerous threat on other tracks like at New Hampshire, Martinsville and Bristol. But again, bad luck cause him to have poor finishes at those venues. Bad luck truly is the story of his career, but it doesn't change the fact that he was stupid fast all year long in 2016!

Strong Tracks - Texas, Atlanta, Charlotte, Dover, WGI and Darlington

Weak Tracks - Bristol and Martinsville

Yahoo Grouping Tier: A-list Grouping

2017 Fantasy Outlook - In 2017, I have some very high hopes for him and FRR. They will continue to be backed by JGR and will probably get even more support with new teammate Erik Jones. So that should only lead to more speed in their cars. Truex Jr had his best year ever and it is not even close. He entered the 2016 with just 3 career wins and had 4 wins in 36 races. And those are only the races that he was able to avoid bad luck. Just imagine how many wins, he would have had if things went differently for him? Crazy to think about! In 2017, I expect him to be his strongest at the intermedate tracks overall. He will run well at them all, but the worn-out tracks will be where he really excel at. Places like Homestead, Texas, Altanta, Charlotte, etc. I would say Texas is his best track and it probably not very close either, too. He will also have good runs on the road courses as well. He is a gem on the road courses, yet he doesn't quite as much credit for it. But he starting to show signs of a road course ace back in his MWR days. It showing even more at FRR! The flats tracks (larger and shorter) will be where has questionable outcomes. More often than not, he will have very good runs but just not elite-status runs though. I say he has top 10 potential at them all, but not sure if he at that next level. At least not like he is on the intermediate tracks. Overall, I expect great things from Truex in 2017. I think he will pull off about 2-3 wins with 12-14 top 5 finishes and roughly 18 Top 10 finishes. He will have some more bad luck in 2017, but I think it will happen less often though.

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Jimmie Johnson

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: Jimmie Johnson

Car #: 48

Make: Chevy

Season Debut: 2002 (First-Full Season)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 543

# of Career Poles: 34 

# of Career Wins: 80

# of Career Top 5s: 218 

# of Career Top 10s: 330

# of Career DNFs: 48

# of Career laps led: 18,433 

Career Average Finish: 12.0

Career Average Start: 11.1

# of 2016 Wins: 5

# of 2016 Top 5s: 11

# of 2016 Top 10s: 16 

# of 2016 Poles: 1

# of 2016 DNFs: 4

# of 2016 laps led: 737

2016 Average Finish: 14.0

2016 Average Start: 12.7

2016 Fantasy Recap - Last offseason I predicted that Jimmie Johnson would have a very strong start before cool off in the 2nd half of the season. Good news! I predicted the strong start and the cooling off in the 2n half. Bad news? He got hot again, after cooling off in the early to middle summer months. I felt like HMS figured out some things with the Chicago test just before the Michigan race. Because that whole organization saw a major uptick up speed on the intermediate tracks and Johnson said they felt really good about what they found after that. What are the odds of having an 10-hour test session and see major improvement in race performance happening, without them being related? Not sure, but I would say those odds are fairly long. I believe that test was a stepping stone for improvement at the intermediate tracks. The final 7 intermediate tracks (of 1.3 miles or longer) were dominated by teams of HMS, CGR and SHR. Just saying. They found something at HMS just before Michigan and I really do believe it was something they found in a test session. Anyhow, Johnson had a pretty awesome season! He had 5 wins, 11 top 5 finishes and 16 Top 10 finishes. It wasn't a great season by any means, as he was consistent after the month of May until the chase started. But he did get on the roll at the right time and won the races that he needed to win at to win the championship. But his 11 Top 5 finishes and 16 Top 10 finishes were eye-opening because you expect the champion to have far higher numbers than that. But he didn't and won the championship. The 5 wins were very key. At end of the day, the stats don't matters. It is how he finished and that exactly what matters most in Johnson's case. He was unbelievable in the chase!

Strong Tracks - Martinsville, Texas, Atlanta, Indy, Dover and Cali

Weak Tracks - Michigan and Talladega

Yahoo Grouping Tier: A-list Grouping

2017 Fantasy Outlook - Jimmie Johnson is coming off an histic season where he placed himself in history as only the 3rd Nascar driver to ever win 7 Cup Series Championships. That's awesome! It's truly really! Like or hate him, he is doing something very special as a driver. We are knowing the greatest driver of this era tear down the record books, folks. 80 wins and hasn't slowed down yet. Over the past 13 seasons, he has won at least 4 times in 12 of those seasons. It's insane! All he does is win and win races! It's mind-blowing really. In 2017, I expect more great things from him. He should be at his best on the intermediate tracks. Especially the 1.5 mile tracks. He will also have good days at places like Cali, Dover and Darlington. All are intermediate tracks, but on non-traditional 1.5 mile venues though. His best intermediate tracks will be Atlanta, Texas and Las Vegas. He will also have strong runs on the flats tracks (large and short). He will be more consistent on the larger flats of Indy and Pocono. Both has been excellent tracks for him in his career. He has been a bit inconsistent of late, but still very good overall. The shorter flats will be good to him, but it is harder for him to be that top tier threat though. Mainly because the HMS cars seems to lack the speed on the shorter in length tracks like Phoenix, New Hampshire and Richmond. Those races are typically dominated by the Gibbs and Penske cars. Road courses and plate tracks will another strong places to use him at. Road courses will be where is most underrated at by far. Johnson is an road course ace and people don't give him enough credit. He is a stud at both Sonoma and WGI. More so at WGI, as his record speaks for itself. He has been more inconsistent at Sonoma in his career. Plate tracks will be good to him, but like any driver will need some luck. Overall, I expect amazing things from Jimmie Johnson in 2017. I think he will win 3-5 times and posted doule-digit Top 5 finishes, while contending for possibly another championship!

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: AJ Dinger

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: AJ Dinger

Car #: 47

Make: Chevy 

Season Debut: 2008 (First-Full Season)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 299

# of Career Poles: 4

# of Career Wins: 1

# of Career Top 5s: 9 

# of Career Top 10s: 47

# of Career DNFs: 28

# of Career laps led: 494 

Career Average Finish: 21.0

Career Average Start: 19.9

# of 2016 Wins: 0

# of 2016 Top 5s: 2

# of 2016 Top 10s: 9 

# of 2016 Poles: 0

# of 2016 DNFs: 4

# of 2016 laps led: 29

2016 Average Finish: 17.8

2016 Average Start: 17.2

2016 Fantasy Recap - Dinger had a very good year in 2016, but I wouldn't call it a great year by any means. He is still struggle to be consistent with the 47 team, however he had his best year ever with JTG team though. He posted 2 Top 5 finishes, 9 Top 10 finishes with an very solid 17.4 average finish. Statically speaking from a career vantage point, he had his 2nd-best season ever. 2011 was the only season that he posted better numbers and it wasn't really that wide of margin either though. In fact, 2016 was only the 3rd time in his career where he had better than an 20.0 average finish for the season. Another thing I love? He had by far his best season ever with the 47 team, too! He had 2 Top 5 finishes and 8 Top 10 finishes in his first two-full seasons with the #47 team. And had 23.1 and 20.1 average finishes. He blow all of those stats out of the water in 2016 alone. Quite impressive! He saw one of the greatest improvements from 2015 to 2016. In 2015, he had 0 Top 5 finishes finishes and 2 Top 10 finishes with 23.1 average finish and 21.6 average start. He saw improvements in every category. In my last Profile (Aric Almirola), we saw a driver decrease significantly in every major stat. In this one, we saw AJ Dinger improve in every statically category. AJ has to be very happy with his 2016 efforts!

Strong Tracks - Sonoma, WGI, Martinsville, Phoenix and Richmond

Weak Tracks - Kentucky and Chicago 

Yahoo Grouping Tier: B-list Grouping

2017 Fantasy Outlook - Dinger had his best season ever at JTG and is prime to continue the success in 2017. The big key for Dinger in 2016, I think he was more patience and saw improvements in his cars overall performance. The technical alliance with RCR probably was a big-asset for him overall as well. So where will be the best places to use him in 2017? I think that is pretty previous by looking at recent seasons data and career-history. Obvious the road courses are where he will have his best chance to go to victory or grab a strong finish. But as we all know, he has proven he cannot be consistent with getting the job done. With that said, the chance is hard to past up when we come to Sonoma and Watkins Glenn though. Next, I would target him the short tracks and the shorter flats. So Martinsville and Bristol (Short tracks), along with the shorter flats of Phoenix, Richmond and New Hampshire. All of those venues are places where the Dinger has found success at in the past. However, I would primary target Martinsville as it considered his best non-road course track. Also he is pretty good at Phoenix. Does have nearly as high of a ceiling but has finished 16th or 17th in past 4 of 5 races there. Hard to beat that kind of consistency overall. He has uptrending potential at Bristol as well. As he ran pretty well in both races there. Over the past 5 races here, he has 3 races where he topped 82.0 driver rating. That's a very good rating for him, as it shows he was a top 20 contender. You like seeing driver ratings above 80 for Dinger, it usually a good indication he was a decent option. As for New Hampshire and Richmond, I am still meh about overall. I think he is in that 20 to 25 range with limited upside. He just has been that good in the past 3 races at either track. No finish better than 20th. That's need to change in 2017, for him to an asset to me. Still, he has ran well in the past though. It's all about the potential, so he is worth keeping an eye on. He will have days on the other tracks like the intermediate tracks, plates and larger flats. However, I think there will be inconstent results. He doesn't have the speed to be a true contender overall, his best days will be in the low to mid teens. However, he will have a lot of races where he contends just around 20th all day. Those are the races, where he is unlikely a real asset for fantasy teams. As for Dinger, he needs to have teen-like upside to be a true option consider. Overall, I am expecting very good things from the Dinger! He could surprise some people overall!

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Aric Almirola

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: Aric Almirola

Car #: 43

Make: Ford

Season Debut: 2012 (First-Full Season)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 215

# of Career Poles: 1

# of Career Wins: 1

# of Career Top 5s: 8 

# of Career Top 10s: 26

# of Career DNFs: 31

# of Career laps led: 174 

Career Average Finish: 21.7

Career Average Start: 21.1

# of 2016 Wins: 0

# of 2016 Top 5s: 0

# of 2016 Top 10s: 1 

# of 2016 Poles: 0

# of 2016 DNFs: 6 

# of 2016 laps led: 1

2016 Average Finish: 23.3

2016 Average Start: 23.9

2016 Fantasy Recap - Aric had a very disappointing season with RPM, I expected much more out of him overall. He had a very solid 2015 campaign , so I was expecting something similar out of him. Instead, he saw a decline in every category across the board. In fact, he posted career-lows as a full-time driver. Since 2012, he has never posted worse numbers than he did in 2016. He had career-worst 23.3 average finish (never worse than 21.3), 23.9 average start (never worse than 22.3), 0 Top 5 finishes (had at least one in every season prior), 1 Top 10 finish (never had less than 4) and 1 lap led (also a career-low). Of all of the driver profiles, this is the first time a driver have actually saw a decline in every major statically category. That's just crazy! He went from having his best season ever in 2015 to having his worst-season ever. You don't see that very often, it was truly a down year for Aric and the 43 team!

Strong Tracks - Richmond, Dover, Phoenix and Bristol

Weak Tracks - Cali and Indy

Yahoo Grouping Tier: B-list Grouping

2017 Fantasy Outlook - In 2017, RPM will dial back to just 1 car in the Sprint Cup Series. I personally really love this move overall. It will allow RPM to focus on one car. Which would lead to his best year ever at the Cup because they are just putting funds and time into one driver. That could lead to good things or bad, just all depends though. Aric should be at his best on the shorter racetracks such as the shorter flats. Places like New Hampshire, Richmond and Phoenix. The shorter flats will be his strongest type of track, he will be consistent. And more importantly, it will be the type of track that he has his highest ceiling at too. Meaning, his best results and performance are likely at them. He will also do well on the short tracks (Martinsville and Bristol), but he will be more inconsistent. Make no mistake though, he will have strong runs if everything goes according to plan. Likely in the 12th-18th range, I would say. I would also put Dover as a strong track for him. It's not considered a short track or a shorter-flat, but it fits (in length) into what kind of track he runs well at. He also will be good on the plate tracks, pretty consistent into the high teens for the most part. He does a very good job at finishes races at Daytona and Talladega. However, don't go out and expect him to give you the world though. As for intermediate tracks (Nascar's bread and butter), he will have some serious issues at. On an average weekend, he will contend and finish somewhere in the low-20s. It is an area that I am very concerned about. The best we can hope for is he qualifies poorly consistently in the mid to high 20s, so he becomes a valuable piece for position differential leagues. Otherwise, I don't see him having much value at all. Overall, I am expecting a good year from Aric. Not a great one though. Aric will have his bad days but he will have his good ones too. Most likely on shorter tracks in length. Bristol, Martinsville, Richmond, Dover, New Hampshire and Pheonix are by way the best places to use him. Anywhere else, you are playing with the house's money. And kids, you don't want to be caught stealing it, as it could be costly!

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Kyle Larson

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: Kyle Larson

Car #: 42

Make: Chevy

Season Debut: 2014 (First-Full Season)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 111

# of Career Poles: 1

# of Career Wins: 1

# of Career Top 5s: 20 

# of Career Top 10s: 42

# of Career DNFs: 13

# of Career laps led: 548 

Career Average Finish: 16.5

Career Average Start: 15.3

# of 2016 Wins: 1

# of 2016 Top 5s: 10

# of 2016 Top 10s: 15 

# of 2016 Poles: 0

# of 2016 DNFs: 2

# of 2016 laps led: 379

2016 Average Finish: 14.7

2016 Average Start: 15.6

2016 Fantasy Recap - Kyle Larson had his breakout season in the Cup Series in 2016, as he finally went to victory lane. That was arguably the most popular win of the 2016 season. Larson in his first two seasons was heavily criticized for not winning enough or contending up front. In 2016, he had his share of disappointment. But he made some major progress as well. Larson showed he is a well-around driver. He didn't really consistently run well on any specific type of track, but proved he can run well at every type of track. The consistency and finishing is his issue though. I think Larson is well ahead of the learning curve as a driver, what he accomplished in 2016 was pretty impressive. He improved in everything really. This was after just 2 Top 10 finishes in the first 11 race and only 5 Top 20 finishes in those 11 races. Bad start, but he ended with an win, 10 Top 5 finishes and 15 Top 10 finishes. Including 14.7 average finish as well. Wins, top 5 finishes, top 10 finishes, average finish and laps led all saw a major uptick in 2016. Also improved in top 20 finishes, from 20 to 26. Across the board, Larson saw very good stats. Another thing people don't take into consideration is his equipment level. He's not driving for Hendrick or Gibbs, but he is still running near the front more often than not. Overall, Larson had a very solid season. He accomplished everything he needed to and that was making strides as a cup driver. He took a step forward and that's all you can ask for, he did that and much more in my opinion. Solid season!

Strong Tracks - Homestead, Dover, Michigan, Pocono and Indy

Weak Tracks - Kentucky and  Martinsville

Yahoo Grouping Tier: B-list Grouping

2017 Fantasy Outlook - In 2016, I expected Larson to take that next step as a driver and he did that, as he finally got to victory lane. In 2017, I think we will see him get even better though. Especially since no driver fits the new race package than Larson. The looser these cars get, the more it will benefit a driver like Larson. Also Chip Ganassi Racing should see some improvement. One of the reason for Larson's slow starts last year was his new crew chief Chad Johnston. Those two didn't get on the same page until like May and that exactly when the results started to come in for them. From May to November, they were consistent top 10 threats and contended for top 5 too. So where do I expect Larson to do his best work out? Hard to say, but I would say the shorter-flats and larger flats to be the safest places for him. Pocono and Indy are by far his best tracks as track types. Very good on them both. No poor finishes in his career at either track. Been very competition. Richmond and Phoenix are places were Larson has been good at and overall very consistent. Mainly in the top 10 to low-teens. New Hampshire, he has been off at (minus his first two starts). He will be good on the intermediate tracks like his first three seasons. But I think CGR is lacking the speed for him to be a consistent top 5 threat though. So expect mix results, but he will have the potential though. Road courses are tracks, he has showed he can run very well at, however he usually has some type of bad luck. In 2016, he had top 5 cars in both races, until bad luck hit him late. Overall, Larson will have impressive runs in 2017. But he is one of those drivers that can find bad luck at drop of an hat. And he will have those days, where everything going great and then bang he is on pit road with some type of issue. The kid is talented, but he is also impatience at times. He has worked on that at, but its still shows as he is developing. In 2017, I expect 1 win, 10-12 Top 5 finishes and 16 to 18 Top 10 finishes. He may be a bit under those numbers, but give or take a couple seems likely for him. I am expecting another solid year for Kyle Larson!

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Kurt Busch

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: Kurt Busch

Car #: 41

Make: Ford

Season Debut: 2001

Number of Championships: 1

# of Career Starts: 576

# of Career Poles: 21

# of Career Wins: 28

# of Career Top 5s: 125 

# of Career Top 10s: 243

# of Career DNFs: 60

# of Career laps led: 8,858  

Career Average Finish: 16.7

Career Average Start: 15.2

# of 2016 Wins: 1

# of 2016 Top 5s: 9

# of 2016 Top 10s: 21 

# of 2016 Poles: 2

# of 2016 DNFs: 2

# of 2016 laps led: 238

2016 Average Finish: 12.03

2016 Average Start: 12.1

2016 Fantasy Recap - If you followed my Fantasy Nascar Previews in 2016, then you know I wasn't on the Kurt Busch bandwagon really at all. I personally just didn't see why Kurt was such an appeal fantasy option. Other than being a consistent driver for first half of the season. Now he wasn't terrible by any means, as he had 9 top 5 finishes and 22 Top 10 finishes with 12.0 average finish. That's solid, but he wasn't really appealing to me. Kurt is an top driver, so I expected more upside than he showed in 2016. Most weekends, he was only a contender from the top 10 to low teens. He was predictable but the lack of upside landed him on my bad side. After all of the speed he showed in 2015, I just was disappointed in him. Overall, it was a good year for Kurt. He wasn't nearly as good as Kevin Harvick, but I think SHR announcing their departure from Chevy hurt Kurt. I doubt HMS was giving Kurt, Danica and Smoke as good equipment, once that announcement was made. Since there was benefit for them to do that. Once they announced they move to Ford in 2017, we started to see a decline in Kurt's numbers. All-in-all, it was a good year for Kurt. Not great, but definitely good enough to be called an success!

Strong Tracks - Pocono, Sonoma, Phoenix, and Cali

Weak Tracks - Martinsville and Michigan

Yahoo Grouping Tier: B-list Grouping

2017 Fantasy Outlook - The big off-season buzz that I have heard since the 2016 season ended was about how will SHR do with switching to Ford?  Personally, I don't think it will effect SHR that much at all. SHR only will be building their own chassis and being getting the engine support from Ford. In short, I am not too worried about them. They should be able to translate from Chevy to Ford pretty smoothly! In 2017, I expect Kurt strengths to be intermediate tracks and road courses. Kurt should be a top 10 contender at most intermedate tracks. He will contend for a couple low-teen finishes as well, but mainly he will contend for the top 10. He most likely won't have enough upside to finish inside the top 5. But I wouldn't rule it out either though. Road courses will be another strength for him. He always have ran well on the road courses and in recent years have shown everyone why he should be feared. He didn't show it so much in 2016, but I think it will be a rebound year for him. Flats in general should be solid for him. He will run very well at Pocono, I would say it is his best track on the schedule. He loves this place and have the track record to back it up. I will go much more into details with that next month. He should also run well on all of the shorter flats as well. Phoenix, Richmond and New Hampshire are all pretty good places to use him. Phoenix stands out as his best shorter-flat track though. Overall, I expect a solid year from Kurt in 2017. I don't know if we will see him score more than 22 Top 10 finishes but I think he will be around the same as last year. I would expect about 11 Top 5 finishes, 19 Top 10 finishes with an win as what to expect from him. So around the same as last year or maybe a little better, too.

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Ryan Newman

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: Ryan Newman

Car #: 31

Make: Chevy

Season Debut: 2002 (First-Full Season)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 548

# of Career Poles: 51

# of Career Wins: 17 

# of Career Top 5s: 105 

# of Career Top 10s: 225

# of Career DNFs: 62

# of Career laps led: 4,702 

Career Average Finish: 16.0

Career Average Start: 12.0

# of 2016 Wins: 0

# of 2016 Top 5s: 2

# of 2016 Top 10s: 10 

# of 2016 Poles: 0

# of 2016 DNFs: 3 

# of 2016 laps led: 24

2016 Average Finish: 15.7

2016 Average Start: 14.1

2016 Fantasy Recap - Like teammate Paul Menard, Ryan Newman had one of his worst seasons of his career. In fact, his numbers in 2016 were the worst since he joined RCR. Since joining Cup full-time in 2002, this was probably his third-worst season when comparing the numbers. He only had 2 Top 5 finishes and 10 top 10 finishes, those are career-low over the past 7 previous seasons. We have to go back to the 2008 season (his final season with Penske in the #12 car), to find a year where he posted worse numbers. Since joining SHR in 2009, he has been Mr. Consistency. Sure, his average finish of 15.7 wasn't terrible. But not on the same level as we saw in his first two seasons with RCR. He posted at least 5 Top 5 finishes and top 15 finishes with average of 13.6 or better in 2014 and 2015. Numbers across the board were down in 2016. I think his downtrend is due with Austin Dillon's rise. It would explain why both him and Menard saw unpredictable reduce of production. I am just gonna make a wild theory that RCR put more effort into Dillon's equipment. Since he probably has the best shot to win. Or it could just be a pure accident that Dillon saw his best year ever, while his teammates had their worst years ever. Either way, Newman didn't have his best year. But it wasn't a total loss, he just missed out on the chase.

Strong Tracks - Pocono, Michigan, New Hampshire, Kansas and Phoenix

Weak Tracks - Indy and Daytona

Yahoo Grouping Tier: B-list Grouping

2017 Fantasy Outlook - I think Ryan Newman will see improvement from his 2016 numbers overall, he wasn't very Ryan Newman-like. Only an 15.7 average finish, which is the 2nd-worst average finish over the past 8 seasons. Also his 2 Top 5 finishes and 10 Top 10 finishes also ranked as career-low since start of the 2009 season. Hard seeing him, not improving them numbers. How much will he improve though? I don't really know honestly. RCR as whole in the past has been best at the intermediate tracks. So logic points to that being a strength for Newman. When looking at his performance from a whole in 2016, he was probably at his best on the intermediate tracks. So I would expect those trends to continue in 2017. 6 of 11 results ended inside the top 10 on the intermediate tracks. Also, both of his top 5 finishes came on the 1.5 mile tracks (Kansas, Charlotte). With that said, Newman said something very interesting on twitter around mid-point of last season. He said his team's (meaning the 31 team) strength was short tracks and I would believe that. Newman is a short-track racer, so logically he will be a good performer on the shorter racetracks (traditionally a mile or less in length). He should perform well on the shorter flats and larger flats in general. He will be a bit better on the shorter flats. New Hampshire, Richmond and Phoenix are historically good tracks for him. He didn't really run well at these venues in 2016, it was just an off year for him overall. As for the larger flats, he has found success at both Indy and Pocono. But my money is on Pocono as he considers it one of his best tracks and been on the record saying that. The results speak for itself, too. Short tracks (Martinsville and Bristol) and road courses (WGI and Sonoma) will be good venues for him in 2017. I don't expect any top 5 runs, but like most tracks you can expect somewhere in the low teens from him with upside in the high-single digits. Overall in 2017, I expect to see improvement from 2016 but he will have his bad days. They will be far in between as he will be mainly an consistent driver. Newman will depend on consistency to have any decent fantasy value. Two tracks I would like to use him at is Michigan and Pocono. They been one of my favorites places to use him at in recent seasons. For whatever reason, he just seem to give it a little extra effort. Expect good but not great things from Newman in 2017!

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Paul Menard

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: Paul Menard

Car #: 27

Make: Chevy 

Season Debut: 2007 (First-Full Season)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 363

# of Career Poles: 1

# of Career Wins: 1

# of Career Top 5s: 17 

# of Career Top 10s: 55

# of Career DNFs: 27

# of Career laps led: 312 

Career Average Finish: 20.7

Career Average Start: 20.4

# of 2016 Wins: 0

# of 2016 Top 5s: 0

# of 2016 Top 10s: 3 

# of 2016 Poles: 0

# of 2016 DNFs: 6 

# of 2016 laps led: 20

2016 Average Finish: 22.0

2016 Average Start: 19.5

2016 Fantasy Recap - Menard had a very disappointing 2016, I personally didn't have super high standards for him, but he way worse than I expected. He has shown signs of improvements the last couple years, so logically you would think he was due for a solid year. But nope, he finished 25th in points with only 19 top 20 finishes with 3 Top 10 finishes and 22.0 average finish. He only had 3 Top 10 finishes, which isn't great. But the really strange thing is, it wasn't on any one specific type of track. He finished top 10 at Martinsville (short track), Phoenix (shorter flat track) and Indy (larger flat track). Three different tracks with the same outcome, which probably means the luck factor was a big key for him. Overall, Menard didn't have a good year. On most good weekends, he contend for a mid to high teen finish (somewhere from 15th-19th) and on a average weekend ran in the low-20s. He also had some really bad days when he didn't contend for a top 25 finish and there were some races like that too. Menard had his worst year ever at RCR! He posted a career low in both top 5 and top 10 finishes. Also posted an career-low 22.0 average. Previously, he never had an average finish worse than 18.0 (rookie season). Prior to this season, Menard was a good source of good quality finishes. Especially the last couple seasons. In 2016, he really took a nosedive and it wasn't really expected either.

Strong Tracks - Cali, Michigan and Talladega

Weak Tracks - Pocono and Charlotte

Yahoo Grouping Tier: B-list Grouping

2017 Fantasy Outlook - In 2017, I expect Menard to have a rebound season from 2016. He had his worst year by far since joining the #27 back in 2011, so logically he is due to have a nice year. How good? I don't know, but I am sure he can top 3 Top 10 finishes and 19 Top 20 finishes on 22.0 average finish. I mean, if he cannot then there's something wrong. In his equipment, he should hover with top 20 potential on a weekly basis with enough upside to contend for top 15 finishes. He struggled on the intermediate tracks last season, but I feel like he can rebound on this type of track in 2017. So I expect that to be his primary strength as RCR always seem to do well on them. Short tracks should be next in line. He has ran well at both Bristol and Martinsville in recent years. Very underrated driver overall. Of course plate tracks will another type of track that he runs well at, but it will come down to luck for him. He seems to be better at Talladega than Daytona. Road courses and flats tracks will be hit or miss. He should have a mix results of finishes. I doubt he will should any consistent pattern, but he will have his chances to be a fantasy steal every now and then. It about looking at the trends and figuring out when you should take a chance with him. Overall, I don't expect the world from Menard but he could surprise some people.

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Chase Elliott

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: Chase Elliott

Car #: 24

Make: Chevy

Season Debut: 2016 (First-Full Season)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 41 

# of Career Poles: 2

# of Career Wins: 0

# of Career Top 5s: 10 

# of Career Top 10s: 17

# of Career DNFs: 3

# of Career laps led: 358 

Career Average Finish: 16.0

Career Average Start: 12.9

# of 2016 Wins: 0

# of 2016 Top 5s: 10

# of 2016 Top 10s: 17 

# of 2016 Poles: 2

# of 2016 DNFs: 2

# of 2016 laps led: 358

2016 Average Finish: 14.6

2016 Average Start: 11.3

2016 Fantasy Recap - Chase Elliott had a very good 2016 season. He had one of those special rookie seasons. He had a better rookie year a bit better than Kyle Larson did back in 2014 and what he did was pretty impressive. Elliott had 10 Top 5 finishes and 17 Top 10 finishes in 2016 with 2 pole awards and 14.6 average finish. He was very strong on the 1.5 mile tracks and saw several chances at win slip away on the intermediate tracks in general. Michigan (2.5 mile intermediate track) was the place where I felt he really screwed up twice. Was in position to win back races and let them slip away. Also had races slip away at Chicago and Charlotte in the chase. He had the car to beat late in the both races, but say misfortune occur late. That was the story of his season, close but cigar for Chase Elliott. He had a impressive season and one that will be hard to match. For a young driver like him, it was mightily impressive. Long as he in the #24 car, he should be in line for pretty solid numbers like we saw in 2016!

Strong Tracks - Texas, Michigan, Atlanta, Chicago and Cali

Weak Tracks - Sonoma and Indy

Yahoo Grouping Tier: B-list Grouping

2017 Fantasy Outlook - Many people have high standards for him, and I don't disagree. I think his potential is limitless. He definitely has the equipment and the talent to win and add more top 5 and top 10 finishes than he did last season. My concern? The epic Sophomore slump. This is something we see several successful rookies deal. They hit that high in their rookie year and then bang the brick wall appears. Will Elliott suffer a similar fate? I hope not for fantasy purposes, but I wouldn't rule it out. Okay so let's pretend, he won't have a Sophomore slump. Where will be the best places to use him? Off top of my head, I want to use him at the intermediate tracks. Specifically places like Texas, Atlanta, Charlotte and Chicago. They have something in common and that they are worn-out racetracks. Elliott does a great job of tire management and we saw that help him at these places quite often. Besides the intermediate tracks, I am not sure if there is a specific type of track that he will be extremely strong on. He should be good on the shorter flats, but he will have his bad days. I say most weekends he will have low-teen potential with upside in the top 10. Probably most much more than just top 10. He is still developing on this type of track. Just not at that next level based on his rookie year. Short tracks (Bristol and Martinsville) will be a weakness for him. He is still trying to find himself at Martinsville as I would consider it his worst track. He been nothing more than an top 20 driver. Bristol he has shown more promise at, but still working progress. Road course and plate tracks will be another weakness. I think the plates will be hit or miss for Elliott. He can run well, but still have work to do. Same goes for road courses, I just don't get the feeling he is one of those drivers who can be a game changer yet on road courses. Overall, I expect a very good year from Elliott. He will have his best days on intermediate tracks. He will have his moments on the shorter flats and larger flats, but you can expect him to have his bad ones too. Short tracks and road courses will be on the opposite end of the stick, but it all about his development on them though.

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Joey Logano

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: Joey Logano

Car #: 22

Make: Ford

Season Debut: 2009 (First-Full Season)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 291

# of Career Poles: 17

# of Career Wins: 17

# of Career Top 5s: 81 

# of Career Top 10s: 136

# of Career DNFs: 23

# of Career laps led: 3,878 

Career Average Finish: 15.0

Career Average Start: 13.2

# of 2016 Wins: 3

# of 2016 Top 5s: 16

# of 2016 Top 10s: 26 

# of 2016 Poles: 3

# of 2016 DNFs: 3 

# of 2016 laps led: 703

2016 Average Finish: 10.5

2016 Average Start: 8.1

2016 Fantasy Recap - Another season with the #22 team, another year that Logano looked like an top 5 driver. Week-in and week out, he looked awesome in 2016. Since middle of 2013, Logano has been one of the most consistent drivers in the series. There has only been a few races where he hasn't contended for at least an top 10 finish. More often than not, he showed flashes of top 5 upside. Over the past 3 seasons (since start of 2014), he has posted 3+ wins, 16+ Top 5 finishes and 22+ Top 10 finishes with at least 11.3 average finish in all three seasons. He has no doubt been one of the best drivers, not many can be consistent year-in and year-out like that. In 2016, he struggled to show that upside we love so much. However, he was still a consistent top 10 threat like he did. Even though, we saw the wins total and average finish drop. He was still able to keep a stable number of top 5 and top 10 finishes. He still decline across the board, but that was expected. He had a such a great year in 2015, it was pretty much a given his numbers would drop. All-in-all, it was another year great year for Joey Logano. 3 wins, 16 Top 5 finishes and 26 Top 10 finishes is extremely good for anyone at the Cup level.

Strong Tracks - Charlotte, Kansas, Michigan, Watkins Glenn and Texas

Weak Tracks - Darlington and Pocono

Yahoo Grouping Tier: A-list Grouping

2017 Fantasy Outlook - The last three seasons, I had picked Joey Logano to win the championship. Each time he looked primed to take the championship, but failed to grab the gold. Joey, you making me look bad! But just think about it though, he haven't won a championship despite all of the success he had since joining Penske. Personally, I think it only matter of time before he breaks through. Question is when though. In 2017, I have high standards for him once again. I think he can repeat last season's numbers and beyond. Over the past 3 seasons, he has at least 3 wins, 16 Top 5 finishes and 22 Top 10 finishes. I am expecting him to repeat those kind of numbers once again. Also I think the 2017 package will be favorable to him which should only help him even further. His best tracks will likely be the intermediate tracks. Specially places like Charlotte, Texas, Michigan and Kansas. Those 4 tracks has stood for him over the past couple of seasons. Logano also will perform well at the shorter flats (New Hampshire, Richmond and Phoenix), as he has been one of the best in the series recently. Same goes for Bristol and Martinsville, his numbers are misleading. He been better than what his numbers suggest. I will go deeper into in his preview next month though. Road courses should also be an strength for him as well. He so underrated at the road courses since he has joined Penske. Potentially weak places for him? Pocono and plate tracks stood out to me. He been good at these venues, but not sure if he on the next level. I think he has some boom or bust to him on the plates. He has won at both Daytona and Talladega, but he also mid of the pack finishes as well. Overall, there aren't a lot of tracks where he can be considered weak at. Logano is the full-package. Strong just about everywhere we go. I expect another impressive year from Logano!

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Ryan Blaney

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: Ryan Blaney

Car #: 21

Make: Ford

Season Debut: 2016 (First-Full Season)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 54

# of Career Poles: 0

# of Career Wins: 0

# of Career Top 5s: 4 

# of Career Top 10s: 11

# of Career DNFs: 7

# of Career laps led: 31 

Career Average Finish: 20.7

Career Average Start: 14.7

# of 2016 Wins: 0

# of 2016 Top 5s: 3

# of 2016 Top 10s: 9 

# of 2016 Poles: 0

# of 2016 DNFs: 2 

# of 2016 laps led: 11

2016 Average Finish: 18.5

2016 Average Start: 14.9

2016 Fantasy Recap - Blaney had a pretty good rookie year, just not a impressive one. He was punched in the mouth and stream rolled by Chase Elliott. Also in lesser equipment (and a bit less talented) didn't help any either though. Blaney's progression was obvious from start of the season compared to the end. He struggled at certain tracks and made mistakes early on. But he had much more success in second half of the season. In the final 13 races of the season, he posted 8 Top 15 finishes. Consistency was key for his fantasy value in that stench. He wasn't blowing anyone away, but he getting results starting at the Michigan race. He also had a type of track that he performed best at too. He was at his best on track that had a lot of grip. Such as Michigan, Kansas and Phoenix. Those three tracks are the places that I would say that he had top 3 performances at. I don't have to even look at the results, because I remember those performance because they stood out to in my mind. He had a lot of teen performances, but when he was impressive, you knew it.

Strong Tracks - Michigan, Kansas, Phoenix and Talladega

Weak Tracks - TBD

Yahoo Grouping Tier: B-list Grouping

2017 Fantasy Outlook - Last season Blaney had a up and down year, not a bad one at all. He had his moments, but never was a consistent threat for a top 10 finish. He obviously has some developing to do still as a driver. In 2017, I expect him to make more progress and add more to his 2016 totals. Where do I expect him to perform his best at? I would say the intermediate tracks in general are his best shots at top 5 and top 10 finishes. More specifically at places like Michigan, Vegas and Kansas. Places that see limited fall-off, he doesn't seem to be quite that good at tire management. He is getting better though. He also should be pretty good at the shorter flats of New Hampshire and Phoenix. Two tracks he know to perform well at, especially at Phoenix (he sweep top 10 in 2016). He will struggle on the short track of Martinsville. He is still trying to learn at that place. He had terrible runs at Bristol in 2016, but it was pure bad luck. He will also struggle at the road courses. In 2017, I am expecting him to go winless again, score 7-10 Top 5 finishes and about 12-14 top 10 finishes. He will see some progression, but not expecting a major uptick though.

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Matt Kenseth

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: Matt Kenseth

Car #: 20

Make: Toyota 

Season Debut: 2000 (First-Full Season)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 614

# of Career Poles: 16

# of Career Wins: 38

# of Career Top 5s: 171 

# of Career Top 10s: 309

# of Career DNFs: 54

# of Career laps led: 11,330 

Career Average Finish: 14.1

Career Average Start: 17.3

# of 2016 Wins: 2

# of 2016 Top 5s: 8

# of 2016 Top 10s: 19 

# of 2016 Poles: 1

# of 2016 DNFs: 4 

# of 2016 laps led: 948

2016 Average Finish: 13.7

2016 Average Start: 9.6

2016 Fantasy Recap - Kenseth had a tough start to the 2016 season. His bad luck was on a different level for the first 8 races or so. I think the Richmond race was the turning point for him though. He finished 7th in that race. He followed that up with 23rd, 4th and a win at Dover. Then he added two 7th place finishes the next two races as well. I think that stench of races were a big reason for the turn around for him. He got momentum at Richmond and ran with it. I thought after Daytona, he was one of the best drivers in the series. In fact, if we didn't see a late caution (at Phoenix) then he would had advanced to Homestead and had shot at the championship. Things didn't quite work out for him at end of the season. But still, 9 Top 5 finishes is pretty solid when his first didn't come until the 11th race of the season. And 19 Top 10 finishes is a very solid mark, too. Overall, he probably had his worst year ever since joining JGR. As his numbers ranked as his worst since joining in 2014. If 9 Top 5 finishes and 19 Top 10 finishes with 13.7 average finish, while just laps away from contending for a title is considered a down year, then I am excited for him in the years to come!

Strong Tracks - Kentucky, Atlanta, New Hampshire, Bristol and Dover

Weak Tracks - Sonoma and Pocono

Yahoo Grouping Tier: A-list Grouping

2017 Fantasy Outlook - Matt Kenseth saw his worst season yet with JGR, but I highly doubt that will continue for him in 2017 though. Matt has proven he is one of the best drivers in the series, last season he kinda reminded me of teammate Hamlin's 2015 season. Sluggish first half and a very strong second half. He should post better numbers in 2017 and once again be a heavy contender for the championship. Much like his teammates, he will be at his strongest on the 1.5 mile intermediate tracks. His biggest problem on this type of track, he doesn't always deliver the homerun ball like Harvick, Johnson, Rowdy,etc does. He is consistent top 10 driver, but not quite at that next level. That been Kenseth his entire career. Good bet for a solid finish, but just missing that signature standout upside. Personally, if I was going to use him it would be at the shorter tracks. Places in 1-mile or less in length more specifically. Places like Bristol, Martinsville, Richmond, Dover, etc are the places were you can really cash in on Kenseth's potential. Not to say, he won't run well at other tracks. But you are more than likely just trying to find value where it will be limited. I would try to avoid him on the road course and plate tracks to a certain level. He is getting better at road courses, much better since joining JGR. But I am not ready to jump on the bandwagon yet. I do really like how he has been trending. As for plate races, he never seem to have any luck there. Something always happen. For 2017, I am projecting him to have about 2-3 wins, 10-15 Top 5 finishes and 18 to 22 Top 10 finishes. Those numbers are very doable for Matt's caliber level driver.

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Carl Edwards

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: Carl Edwards

Car #: 19

Make: Toyota 

Season Debut: 2005

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 445

# of Career Poles: 22

# of Career Wins: 28

# of Career Top 5s: 124 

# of Career Top 10s: 220

# of Career DNFs: 31

# of Career laps led: 6,144 

Career Average Finish: 13.5

Career Average Start: 14.2

# of 2016 Wins: 3

# of 2016 Top 5s: 9

# of 2016 Top 10s: 18 

# of 2016 Poles: 6

# of 2016 DNFs: 6

# of 2016 laps led: 918

2016 Average Finish: 13.9

2016 Average Start: 7.2 

2016 Fantasy Recap - Carl Edwards started the 2016 off very hot and looked like one of the top drivers in the series for the first 9 races. He finished 8 of the first 9 races inside the top 7. Including 4 Top 5 finishes, with 2 wins back to back at Richmond and Bristol. If we dig further into it, he posted 12 Top 8 finishes in the first 18 races. However, after Kentucky he really started to fall off with his overall speed and production. How much did he fall off? He only posted 7 Top 10 finishes in the final 18 races. Including only 3 Top 10 finishes during the chase. He finished 19th or worse in the final 4 of 5 races. Overall, he posted 10 Top 15 finishes in those 18 final races. For a big-time driver like Carl, he needs to do more than that. For the most part, Carl had a good but not great year. He posted 9 Top 5 finishes and 18 Top 10 finishes. Those are good numbers, but far below his teammates had. He was actually the weak link when you are  comparing the 4  drivers. Who would have thought that after start he got of to? Definitely not me, but even as the weak link he almost won the championship too. Hard to complain about what Carl did in 2016, it was his best season since the 2011 season. He posted his most top 5 finishes, top 10 finishes and wins since the 2011 season. Also posted career-high in poles as well.

Strong Tracks - Atlanta, Texas, Bristol and WGI

Weak Tracks - Talladega and Indy

Yahoo Grouping Tier: A-list Grouping

2017 Fantasy Outlook - You should expect big things from Carl Edwards in 2017 with him being in the #19 Toyota for JGR. The Gibbs bunch once again should be the front runners on most weekends, when they aren't it proabbly more often than not a fluke. Expect Edwards strength to be on the intermediate tracks and short tracks. More specifically at the 1.5 mile racetracks in general. If you are going to aim to use at a specific track then I would go with the 1.5 mile tracks. His best racks are Atlanta, Texas and Homestead. He seems to really excel on the worn-out racetracks, and that what all three have in common too. He also should be very good on road course and shorter flats as well too. Plate tracks will likely be his weakness, along with the larger flats of Pocono and Indy. Headed into the 2017 season, I view him as borderline top 5/top 10 driver with upside to contend for a win at certain tracks. Tracks I expect him to contend for wins would be Texas, Homestead, Charlotte, Atlanta, Bristol and Watkins Glenn. Places like New Hampshire and Richmond will also be good places for him to be true race contenders. In 2017 I project something like 2 wins, 8-11 Top 5 finishes and 17-20 Top 10 finishes. I expect more good things for Carl Edwards in 2017!

Twitter - @JeffNathans18