Monday, December 26, 2016

2017 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Ty Dillon

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Ty Dillon will make the jump to full-time in the Monster Energy top series in 2017, as he joins the #13 team. Dillon has been apart of the RCR's lower series racing programs in recent years and will look to go full-time with the big boys in 2017. Clearly, Germin Racing isn't RCR or do they have anything close to that to offer. But RCR owner's Richard Childess (grandfather of Ty Dillon) will give a stable amount of support to the #13 team in 2017. They were getting quite a bit already, but I would expect them to get even more now. Personally, I believe the chance to improve their performance was the big reason they took RCR up on their business idea. Also, the 13 team were getting a lot of support already. So it's only makes perfect sense that they do the bidding for the hand that feeds them.

Ty Dillon will struggle more often than in the 2017 season, he will have his good days and bad. But unfortunately for him, the bad days will occur more often for him. Dillon is talented no doubt about it. I think he can be better than his brother long-term, but short-term he will struggle to match-up. The No.13 team equipment will no doubt slow down his progression as a driver. Many people has put him up there with another memorable rookies in recent years. However, Ty Dillon doesn't have the equipment of Chase Elliott, the experience of Austin Dillon or the talent of Kyle Larson. You could add Stenhouse and Blaney to that list as well. Those drivers I listed there were rookies that had some sort of those combinations. I think it is important to have talent and experience, but it means nothing without the proper equipment honestly. Ty lackluster equipment will hold him back, no doubt!

Shorter racetracks will be the likely venues that Ty Dillon has the most success at in 2017. Dillon was a stronger performer in the lower series on the intermediate\ tracks in the lower series, but the 13 team won't be able to offer that for him though. Most of us know what the No.13 team can do and cannot do. We know that they are more suited to set up cars on shorter tracks and the shorter flats. They have proven, they can be top 20 to top 25 contenders on a weekly basis on these type of tracks. Why? It usually take less horsepower to run on these shorter tracks. And Dillon just had the ablities to avoid trouble it seems. So that's definitely helps. I personally think, with additional help from RCR they will be able to get Dillon some solid runs in 2017. And there's a good chance it will come on the shorter racetracks on the schedule.

The intermediate tracks is a question mark to me, some people say he will be fine on these intermediate tracks. However, I am just not buying into that. I mean, what really helped the 13 team in years past was the experience of Casey Mears. But now, Dillon is in the driver seat. So that experience isn't there anymore. Dillon will bring additional funding with him from RCR, but they will take a hit in the experience category. Realistically, Dillon best days will come when he finishes in the high-teens to low-20s. I say on average weekend, Dillon will hover from 22nd-28th place. That is the range, I would say that you can expect most of finishes to come in. He is a young driver, so the setups won't be too aggressive for him. So I say a good weekend for early on will be about 23rd to 25th place. I am not expecting him to get many top 20 finishes early on, espeically on the intermedate tracks.

His goal on the intermediate tracks, especially in the first half of the year should be getting top 25 finishes and establishing top 25 consistency. If he cannot establish that, then he holds little value in most fantasy formats. With all of that said, we have no idea how good the No.13 team will be with Ty Dillon behind the wheel. So we cannot really say for sure what to expect from him. We can make all of the predictions we want, but none of us really know. If he looks similar to when he was in the No.95 car last year, then he should be in good shape then for the most part. He ran some good races in the top 25 range. Overall, my hopes aren't terribly high for him on the intermediate tracks. But I hope success my standards. Quite frankly, he most likely will.

Larger Flats will be another question mark for him, but I think he will be okay on them for the most part. He doesn't have a lot of experience with them, however I hope he does well. It seems like the Dillon bros have a likeness for these large racetracks for some reason. So hopefully, that means something for success for Ty Dillon in 2017. Pocono has been a strong spot for the No.13 team in recent seasons. With Casey Mears, they finished 21st or better in 3 of 5 races. So if they can finish near the top 20 with Mears, then it should only means good things for Ty Dillon. I feel good about that to be honest. Dillon also finished 21st at Pocono in the #95 car last season, so that helps makes his case for Pocono's success. Need more convincing? He finished 3rd place in his lone NXS start in 2016 there. He started and finished 3rd. He wasn't bad in NXS at Indy either. In 3 starts, he has posted 6.3 average finish with 101.7 driver rating and lowest finish of 9th. Sure it was in top equipment, but it doesn't change the fact he ran well at both places. I would say it could translate into something in the low-20s for Dillon. Maybe a little better than too, but I wouldn't have too high of a bar though.

Plate tracks will definitely be a strong suit for him. He found a lot of success in 2016 and previously on this type of track in the lower series. Not to mention, the No.13 team has also found plenty of success in recent years at both Daytona and Talladega. Dillon is one of those young driver who just understands plate racing. He is one of those drivers who seems to get lucky a lot too, so I would put plate races under a strength for him, no doubt. Dillon won't have many chance for a top-tier finish, so I would try to take advantage of the shots when he does. The racing at Daytona and Talladega will help him with that. And like I said earlier, the No.13 team isn't stranger to pull off great finishes at these tracks, either. Could be a good combo in 2017!

Road courses will be a weak link for Ty Dillon in 2017. The No.13 team has found a lot of success in years past at both Watkins Glenn and Sonoma. But make no mistake, Casey Mears is an hidden gem on them. Ty Dillon isn't a driver who stands out to me as a good road course racer. In less equipment than in his NXS days, well things will be tough on him at both road courses. At best, he will be a mid-20s contender and finisher. If he can pull of that, then it will likely end up being a win for him. I would try to avoid him on these type of tracks. I personally believe Dillon will have some of his worst races on the road courses.

Overall, I expect Dillon to have good days and bad ones. There are two questions I need answered from Dillon and the No.13 team. How will the No.13 team perform with Dillon (and extra support from RCR) behind the wheel. And second, how will the lack of experience effect the 13 team? Mears biggest asset was he had the experience at every track at the highest level. Dillon doesn't have that, I believe it will hurt them a little. But how much is the question though. I think his best days will be on the shorter racetracks overall, along with the plate tracks as well. With the intermediate tracks and road courses being where he has his worst days. Especially the road courses overall. I think the intermediate tracks will be mostly in the lows-20 to middle-20s for Dillon (finish wise), but his best days it could be in the high-teens. I say they will be very unlikely though, except when there a couple crashes. Otherwise, you should be expecting finishes in the 20s. I say around 25th will be the average for him. Headed into 2017, you cannot expect the world from him. But don't write him off too early, I think as he get more experience in 2017, he will become a better driver.

**All stats are from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18