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Honestly, this schedule at Pocono kinda pisses me off! I know for most of you, it doesn't really matter. But for us hardcore fantasy nascar people, it is really a punch to the gut. Qualifying at 11 am and race at 3? Really? Are you serious? Qualifying won't end until like 1 pm. Maybe little after 12, if we are lucky. At best, we are getting 3 hours between qualifying and the race. I am sorry, but that just not enough of time. Especially not for us writers, who need a hour or two to write up a ''solid'' analyze of the weekend. You just cannot take 15 or 20 minutes and slap together a half-ass article. You have look at practice data, look up numbers, determine how qualifying results have a impact, etc.
Usually, we get to see practice and qualifying on Friday and Saturday. Not this week though. And honestly, I am not going to try to throw together an article, just a few hours before the race. The final hour before the race is usually the part, where you have your lineup pretty much set. Pointless.
So below, I wrote up my top 10 drivers headed into Qualifying on Sunday's morning. This is based on practice results, track-type success, momentum and among other things.
Enjoy!
Fantasy Nascar Update -
1. Kyle Busch - Rowdy has another fast racecar and it should had been clear as day headed into the weekend, too. As I mentioned earlier this week, he has dominated both large flats this season and has started on the pole in both races, while leading at least half of the laps in both races. He didn't win at either Pocono (earlier this season) or last week (at Indy), but they have the 18 car figured out for this kind of track. He should be the favorite for the pole and the race. Also, it helps that he has the best pit stall once again. Since, drivers picking pit selection based on last week's qualifying.
2. Martin Truex Jr - I don't think Truex Jr has been dominant on the large flats (or close to it, compared to other weeks), but he is consistently one of the quickest cars on the track. I doubt that will change on Sunday. I wouldn't say that he had the car to beat last weekend, but he was a easy second. Pretty much, what I am expecting this weekend as well. He looked solid in final practice, on what limited track time we saw of him. This is nothing new. He is former winner here and should be the favorite behind the 18 team. His record at Pocono is questionable lately, but as I mentioned in my preview on Monday, all of his poor finishes can be explained if you do research. Then of course, I went on to explain. Check that out from Monday (Pocono Preview), if you are interested. He's a top 5 threat and that shouldn't be questioned.
3. Kevin Harvick - This season, it seems like Harvick get overlooked because he doesn't have the eye-popping speed as guys like the 18,78 and 42 do. But Harvick is pretty solid this weekend. He's fast enough to contend for a top 5 finish and he's great at Pocono, too. In his past 6 races at Pocono, he has finished in the top 2 in 50% of those races. Also, he almost won at this place back in June. On top of that, he finished 6th in last weekend's race. Good sign for him. Harvick will also have good pit selection for Sunday's race. He has momentum, too. With 4 Top 6 finishes in his past 7 races this season. Hard to really hate Harvick this weekend. I sure don't and expecting nothing good things from him!
4. Kyle Larson - I had some questions about Larson after his performance last weekend at Indy. I was very interested in how he would look in practice this weekend and in the race. Well, any concerns I had were magically washed away. He was very fast in final practice and looks like a real threat to get to victory lane. Larson has bad pit selection this week, but I don't think it will matter much. He will be one of the quickest cars on the track tomorrow and never finished worse than 12th at this track. Larson doesn't seem to be a dominant driver on this type of track yet, but he is very consistent with his finishes. Last week was the first time, he didn't finished in the top 12 on the large flat tracks. He has a better car than last week, too. And Larson was top 10 good last weekend, too. So you almost expect that he is a top 5 contender.
5. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin been on a roll since Michigan and looked solid speed in final practice. If you exclude finishes from Daytona and last week (at Indy), Hamlin haven't finished outside of the top 5 since very early June. To put it simply, he has been on a quite a roll. Including a win a couple weeks ago at New Hampshire. JGR in general has been fast for the past couple weeks and it seems all the cars are getting close to breaking through. Hamlin is the only Gibbs driver to win so far, but I think that will change over the few weeks. I think Hamlin is in a great position right now. He has a win and his consistently getting fast car given to him. His record here is kinda up and down. In his first 12 starts at this track, he went to victory lane a total of 4 wins with 7 top 5 finishes. Since, he has one top 5 finish. Not good, but this is all after the repave. I think it will eventually come back around to him. It will just take some time though. As far as this weekend, he is probably just in or outside of the top 5 in terms of potential. I still think it goes 18,78,42, then a host other cars, including the 11. I think that is common thing right now where eve we tend to go.
6. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth use to be just another driver out on the track, before he came to Joe Gibbs Racing. But now, he is one of the favorites headed into the weekend. From 2008 to 2014, Kenseth only recorded two top 10 finishes. Then came to 2015 and he flipped a switch or something. In 2015, he had finishes of 6th and 1st (the fuel mileage race). In 2016, he had finishes of 7th and 17th. He finished 10th earlier this season at Pocono. Overall, he has 8.2 average finish since start of 2015. While posting the 2nd-best average finish in the series, among driver who has made 5 starts in that span. If you add his recent success with the latest speed in his car, you get something awesome. Not to mention, he has top 5 finishes in his past two races (New Hampshire and Indy). You get the feeling that Kenseth is getting closer to returning to victory lane!
7. Brad Keselowski - A lot of people has been on the Keselowski train this week and honestly I don't know why. Sure, he has a great record here and everything and finished 2nd last week. But honestly, I cannot say that I see him winning like some people are thinking. To me the speed haven't been quite there in recent weeks and it isn't there this weekend (to win). Sure, he is easily good enough to be a top 10 contender and I think that is obvious. But, I think it would be diffcult for him to win at Pocono, as Penske is still a little off at the moment. Not saying, he won't finish great, but on pure speed, I think he is that 6th-9th range. Still, there is a lot to like him this week. He is a former winner at this track and has a great average finish over the past few seasons here. When it is all said and done, I think he will be just outside of the top 5.
8. Jimmie Johnson - I always have a soft spot for a driver having a consistent season. I like that shit. Consistency is a good baseline for a fantasy pick. And the drivers that don't display that, I am usually a little harsher on. Let a lone a 7-time champion. Yeah, I been harder on Johnson than most. Most people give him a free pass because he is a 7-time champ. I don't. He has 3 wins, but he also only has 3 top 5 finishes this season. Which pretty much means, he is win or nothing. And look at his top 10 finishes this season? Only 7 on the entire season and 3 of those came since mid-May. That's over 2 months ago. 3 Top 10 finishes in over 2 months? You have to do better than that, Jimmie! As far as this weekend, I think he will top 10 good. But as usual, he seems to be lacking speed compared to the top 4 or 5 guys.
9. Ryan Blaney - Blaney should be a great dark horse pick this weekend. He won here back in June and could very well do it again. He looked pretty fast in practice and is once again displaying a lot of speed. I don't think the speed is the issue for him. He shows this kind of speed every week, but the results aren't usually there for him. His win back in Pocono one of his few bright spots since May. Week in and week out, he is showing speed in practice that seems to be capable of winning on Sunday. During the race, he is contneding up front. But somewhere between the halfway point and the finish line, things seem to go wrong. Frustrating part? You never know when he will have that great finish. Listen to his finishes since May 13th (at Kansas): 4th (Kansas), 24th, 32nd, 1st, 25th, 9th,26th, 10th, 19th and 23rd. I mean, I cannot begin to break that down. He's all over the board really. He does have something going for him though. When he has had at least back-to-back bad finishes, his next good finish ended in a top 5 finish. He had 3 straight finishes outside of the top 30 from Bristol to Talladega, before finishing 4th at Kansas. He had bad finishes at Charlotte and Dover, before winning at Pocono. On top of that, Blaney has career average finish of 7.3 at Pocono in 3 starts. With Blaney, I think the risk is always worth the reward!
10. Chase Elliott - I will disregard what happened to Elliott last weekend at Indy and pretend it never happened. Because, it wasn't his fault that he had a bad engine. Prior to last week, he had a strong string of finishes going for him. In his past 7 races, he had 6 Top 11 finishes. This is of course, excluding (not counting) last week's race. His lone non-top 11 finish was at Daytona. I think this is one of track size, where Elliott will likely win his first race on. These larger tracks are where he seem to excel on. Not saying it will be on a large flat track, but I think the track size in general will be more on the larger size. He finished 8th earlier this season, but what was impressive is he started back and 25th and still posted a still driver rating. Good indication on performance, a lot of times. This weekend, he looks pretty good. He is probably fast enough to challenge for a top 10 finish and maybe a little more, depending how the race goes for him.
Just missed -
Jamie Mac
Joey Logano
Erik Jones
Ryan Newman
Clint Bowyer
****All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Honestly, this schedule at Pocono kinda pisses me off! I know for most of you, it doesn't really matter. But for us hardcore fantasy nascar people, it is really a punch to the gut. Qualifying at 11 am and race at 3? Really? Are you serious? Qualifying won't end until like 1 pm. Maybe little after 12, if we are lucky. At best, we are getting 3 hours between qualifying and the race. I am sorry, but that just not enough of time. Especially not for us writers, who need a hour or two to write up a ''solid'' analyze of the weekend. You just cannot take 15 or 20 minutes and slap together a half-ass article. You have look at practice data, look up numbers, determine how qualifying results have a impact, etc.
Usually, we get to see practice and qualifying on Friday and Saturday. Not this week though. And honestly, I am not going to try to throw together an article, just a few hours before the race. The final hour before the race is usually the part, where you have your lineup pretty much set. Pointless.
So below, I wrote up my top 10 drivers headed into Qualifying on Sunday's morning. This is based on practice results, track-type success, momentum and among other things.
Enjoy!
Fantasy Nascar Update -
1. Kyle Busch - Rowdy has another fast racecar and it should had been clear as day headed into the weekend, too. As I mentioned earlier this week, he has dominated both large flats this season and has started on the pole in both races, while leading at least half of the laps in both races. He didn't win at either Pocono (earlier this season) or last week (at Indy), but they have the 18 car figured out for this kind of track. He should be the favorite for the pole and the race. Also, it helps that he has the best pit stall once again. Since, drivers picking pit selection based on last week's qualifying.
2. Martin Truex Jr - I don't think Truex Jr has been dominant on the large flats (or close to it, compared to other weeks), but he is consistently one of the quickest cars on the track. I doubt that will change on Sunday. I wouldn't say that he had the car to beat last weekend, but he was a easy second. Pretty much, what I am expecting this weekend as well. He looked solid in final practice, on what limited track time we saw of him. This is nothing new. He is former winner here and should be the favorite behind the 18 team. His record at Pocono is questionable lately, but as I mentioned in my preview on Monday, all of his poor finishes can be explained if you do research. Then of course, I went on to explain. Check that out from Monday (Pocono Preview), if you are interested. He's a top 5 threat and that shouldn't be questioned.
3. Kevin Harvick - This season, it seems like Harvick get overlooked because he doesn't have the eye-popping speed as guys like the 18,78 and 42 do. But Harvick is pretty solid this weekend. He's fast enough to contend for a top 5 finish and he's great at Pocono, too. In his past 6 races at Pocono, he has finished in the top 2 in 50% of those races. Also, he almost won at this place back in June. On top of that, he finished 6th in last weekend's race. Good sign for him. Harvick will also have good pit selection for Sunday's race. He has momentum, too. With 4 Top 6 finishes in his past 7 races this season. Hard to really hate Harvick this weekend. I sure don't and expecting nothing good things from him!
4. Kyle Larson - I had some questions about Larson after his performance last weekend at Indy. I was very interested in how he would look in practice this weekend and in the race. Well, any concerns I had were magically washed away. He was very fast in final practice and looks like a real threat to get to victory lane. Larson has bad pit selection this week, but I don't think it will matter much. He will be one of the quickest cars on the track tomorrow and never finished worse than 12th at this track. Larson doesn't seem to be a dominant driver on this type of track yet, but he is very consistent with his finishes. Last week was the first time, he didn't finished in the top 12 on the large flat tracks. He has a better car than last week, too. And Larson was top 10 good last weekend, too. So you almost expect that he is a top 5 contender.
5. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin been on a roll since Michigan and looked solid speed in final practice. If you exclude finishes from Daytona and last week (at Indy), Hamlin haven't finished outside of the top 5 since very early June. To put it simply, he has been on a quite a roll. Including a win a couple weeks ago at New Hampshire. JGR in general has been fast for the past couple weeks and it seems all the cars are getting close to breaking through. Hamlin is the only Gibbs driver to win so far, but I think that will change over the few weeks. I think Hamlin is in a great position right now. He has a win and his consistently getting fast car given to him. His record here is kinda up and down. In his first 12 starts at this track, he went to victory lane a total of 4 wins with 7 top 5 finishes. Since, he has one top 5 finish. Not good, but this is all after the repave. I think it will eventually come back around to him. It will just take some time though. As far as this weekend, he is probably just in or outside of the top 5 in terms of potential. I still think it goes 18,78,42, then a host other cars, including the 11. I think that is common thing right now where eve we tend to go.
6. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth use to be just another driver out on the track, before he came to Joe Gibbs Racing. But now, he is one of the favorites headed into the weekend. From 2008 to 2014, Kenseth only recorded two top 10 finishes. Then came to 2015 and he flipped a switch or something. In 2015, he had finishes of 6th and 1st (the fuel mileage race). In 2016, he had finishes of 7th and 17th. He finished 10th earlier this season at Pocono. Overall, he has 8.2 average finish since start of 2015. While posting the 2nd-best average finish in the series, among driver who has made 5 starts in that span. If you add his recent success with the latest speed in his car, you get something awesome. Not to mention, he has top 5 finishes in his past two races (New Hampshire and Indy). You get the feeling that Kenseth is getting closer to returning to victory lane!
7. Brad Keselowski - A lot of people has been on the Keselowski train this week and honestly I don't know why. Sure, he has a great record here and everything and finished 2nd last week. But honestly, I cannot say that I see him winning like some people are thinking. To me the speed haven't been quite there in recent weeks and it isn't there this weekend (to win). Sure, he is easily good enough to be a top 10 contender and I think that is obvious. But, I think it would be diffcult for him to win at Pocono, as Penske is still a little off at the moment. Not saying, he won't finish great, but on pure speed, I think he is that 6th-9th range. Still, there is a lot to like him this week. He is a former winner at this track and has a great average finish over the past few seasons here. When it is all said and done, I think he will be just outside of the top 5.
8. Jimmie Johnson - I always have a soft spot for a driver having a consistent season. I like that shit. Consistency is a good baseline for a fantasy pick. And the drivers that don't display that, I am usually a little harsher on. Let a lone a 7-time champion. Yeah, I been harder on Johnson than most. Most people give him a free pass because he is a 7-time champ. I don't. He has 3 wins, but he also only has 3 top 5 finishes this season. Which pretty much means, he is win or nothing. And look at his top 10 finishes this season? Only 7 on the entire season and 3 of those came since mid-May. That's over 2 months ago. 3 Top 10 finishes in over 2 months? You have to do better than that, Jimmie! As far as this weekend, I think he will top 10 good. But as usual, he seems to be lacking speed compared to the top 4 or 5 guys.
9. Ryan Blaney - Blaney should be a great dark horse pick this weekend. He won here back in June and could very well do it again. He looked pretty fast in practice and is once again displaying a lot of speed. I don't think the speed is the issue for him. He shows this kind of speed every week, but the results aren't usually there for him. His win back in Pocono one of his few bright spots since May. Week in and week out, he is showing speed in practice that seems to be capable of winning on Sunday. During the race, he is contneding up front. But somewhere between the halfway point and the finish line, things seem to go wrong. Frustrating part? You never know when he will have that great finish. Listen to his finishes since May 13th (at Kansas): 4th (Kansas), 24th, 32nd, 1st, 25th, 9th,26th, 10th, 19th and 23rd. I mean, I cannot begin to break that down. He's all over the board really. He does have something going for him though. When he has had at least back-to-back bad finishes, his next good finish ended in a top 5 finish. He had 3 straight finishes outside of the top 30 from Bristol to Talladega, before finishing 4th at Kansas. He had bad finishes at Charlotte and Dover, before winning at Pocono. On top of that, Blaney has career average finish of 7.3 at Pocono in 3 starts. With Blaney, I think the risk is always worth the reward!
10. Chase Elliott - I will disregard what happened to Elliott last weekend at Indy and pretend it never happened. Because, it wasn't his fault that he had a bad engine. Prior to last week, he had a strong string of finishes going for him. In his past 7 races, he had 6 Top 11 finishes. This is of course, excluding (not counting) last week's race. His lone non-top 11 finish was at Daytona. I think this is one of track size, where Elliott will likely win his first race on. These larger tracks are where he seem to excel on. Not saying it will be on a large flat track, but I think the track size in general will be more on the larger size. He finished 8th earlier this season, but what was impressive is he started back and 25th and still posted a still driver rating. Good indication on performance, a lot of times. This weekend, he looks pretty good. He is probably fast enough to challenge for a top 10 finish and maybe a little more, depending how the race goes for him.
Just missed -
Jamie Mac
Joey Logano
Erik Jones
Ryan Newman
Clint Bowyer
****All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
