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1-JMac: JMac is having the best season of his career and is still being overlooked on a weekly basis! I think a lot of that has to do with the success of Kyle Larson this season, it is easy to overlook JMac's success. I am not overlooking him though, especially not at one of his best tracks on the schedule. JMac has a knack for running and finishing well at Charlotte. Time and time again, he's shown us how good he is here. I think this weekend will be no difference, either. In his past four races at Charlotte, JMac has compiled 11.0 average finish with 2 Top 12 finishes. In his past 6 races overall at CMS, JMac has compiled 4 Top 12 finishes. Including three top 10 finishes. He's finished 3rd and 5th in 2014. I think he is having a similar season to that stellar 2014 season he had with CGR. The most common similarity from that 2014 is the CGR have a lot of speed. I expect a strong run from JMac, much like he done at all of the intermediate tracks! On 1.5 mile tracks in 2017, JMac has finished 8th or better in every race, minus Atlanta. At Atlanta, he's finished 10th. So in short, he's swept the top 10 on this type of track so far in 2017. Pretty good, don't you think?
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is having a great season, but he is not getting recognized for it though. I don't know why honestly. Usually, I am pretty low on Keselowski, but this season I have been giving him a lot of praises. Currently, he is leading the series in wins, top 5 finishes and top 10 finishes. His numbers on the intermediate are just as impressive, too. He had finished 6th or better in every race on this type of track. Not only that, but he has finished in the top 5 at Atlanta (won), Las Vegas (5th), Cali (2nd) and Kansas (2nd). Of his 7 top 5 finishes, he's finished 4 of them on intermediate tracks. That's nearly 60% of the time so far in 2017! His numbers at Charlotte are pretty good, too. In his past 7 races at this track, he's finished in the top 10 six times. His lone non-top 10 finish? 16th place back in October 2014. He had 97.5 driver rating and led 8 laps. Strong indication that he was much better than his final finishing position.
3-Austin Dillon: You know Austin Dillon ran well last week at Kansas, I cannot say that I was entirely shocked. But I wasn't expecting him to. Of course, he ended the race by wrecking. Which pretty much can sum up his season through 11 races. His finishes and overall performance on the 1.5 mile tracks this season has been eye-popping. And not in a good way, either! In 4 races on the cookie cutters, he had a season-high 16th place at Kansas. While finishing 25th or worse in his previous three races this season at Atlanta, Vegas and Texas. You can make all of excuses and all the stats you want, but it does not change anything. Facts remains that Dillon has been at his worst on the 1.5 mile racetracks and haven't proven to anyone of us that he can be trusted. Can Dillon turn it around? Sure and I thought Kansas was a positive sign. But it will take more than one race to convince me though. His Charlotte's record is nothing to get excited about, either. It is pretty consistent overall, I will say that. Excluding last fall's (32nd place finish) race, he had finished 16th or better in his first 5 races at Charlotte. Like I said, it is nothing to get excited about, but pretty consistent. While 2 of his past three races at Charlotte has ended in the top 12. Overall, Dillon is a mix bag of tricks. He is all over the place. There's positive and negative things about him when looking at the stats. Unfortunately, I don't think he is worth the risk this week. I need to see some consistency from him before I consider him!
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is having a pretty good season, but he is not getting the love that he is usually is. I think some of it could be due to SHR changing teams and being less comeptitive than in recent seasons. I think it could be due to the stiff competition in 2017 with new faces rising to the top. Or I think it could simply have to do with that Harvick has lost some of his fantasy value compared to the last couple season (which has a connection to my first reasoning.) But you wanna know a secret? I have a strong feeling it is a combination of all of those reason. This season, Harvick has been a little up and down. But he is trending in the right direction. Especially on the intermediate tracks lately. At Texas and Kansas, he had finishes of 3rd and 4th. While leading in both races. The most similar track is proabbly Atlanta though. He's led 292 laps on that day and finished 9th. With that said, I think Atlanta is more of a driver's track. It takes a wheelman to get around that place and Harvick is one of the best. Charlotte? Not so much. Based on what we seen from him recently, I think he is gonna be in pretty good shape overall. His record at Charlotte is pretty solid, too. In 5 of his past 8 races at Charlotte, he has finished in the top 2. Including 3 of his past 5 races at this track. In the past 4 seasons, Harvick has won twice. While his most win came in October 2014!
5-Kasey Kahne: I don't get the hype behind Kasey Kahne, I am sorry. I get he's drive for Hendrick Motorsports, so by default, he will always get more attention than he deserves. But really, I have yet to be impressed with him. Last week, he was pretty good and had his best car of the season. But, like usual, he took a great car and finished 15th. So if you exclude his Talladega finish, he haven't finished better than 14th dating back to Phoenix. He finished 4th at Atlanta and 12th at Las Vegas. He got the Atlanta's finish on pit strategy. He use to be an elite driver at Charlotte at one time. But it has been a couple years since we seen that Kasey though. From October 2011 to October 2013, he was a force at this place. In that 6 race span, he compiled 4 Top 4 finishes. Three of those ended in the top 2. Overall, Kahne has 12.3 career average finish with 4 wins. However, three of those four wins came with Evernham between 2006 and 2008. In recent seasons with HMS, Kahne has been just good enough. In his past 6 races at CMS, Kahne has compiled 4 Top 14 finishes. While finishing in the top 10 just two times. His most recent finish is 3rd in last fall's race. With that said, I think the No.5 team was performing at a higher level at end of last year compared to right now, too. This season, he haven't really fair that well. In 11 races, he have 3 top 10 finishes. Two of those three were on plate tracks. While 6 of the 11 races only ended in the top 15. You could say, well he had some bad luck, give him a break. What bad luck? Zero DNFs on the season and only race he finished outside of the top 30 was Texas. It is not bad luck folks. He is just not performing well. As nearly half of his races this season has ended in the mid-teens to mid-20s. That's not bad luck, it is a trend.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has had a tough season and I really thought he was starting to turn it around. Of course, then he laid an egg at Kansas and in the all-star race. So now, I am pretty puzzled and have decided to abort ship. But he does have a lot of potential for this weekend, especially if you look at his track record at Charlotte. It has always been a pretty good track for him overall. In his past 11 of 13 races at Charlotte, he has finished 10th or better. His numbers of late are even more impressive. In his past 5 races, he has finished 9th or better in four of five races. Inlcuding a pair of 4th place finishes in 2 of his past 3 races. While 8 of his past 10 races has ended in 9th or better. Half (5 of 10) of those races ended in 4th or better as well. Solely on track record, Hamlin should be one of the better fantasy picks. But I don't solely go on track record. If anything, it a little ways down on my check list usually. Track-type success, momentum and consistency comes first for me. Hamlin does not check off any of those boxes at the moment. And that's a big problem, friends!
18-Kyle Busch: Kyle Busch won the All-star race and will look to use it as momentum for the 600. Kyle haven't had a lot of good luck this season. It seem every time that he is on edge of breaking through for his first win of the season, something goes horribly wrong. At Las Vegas, it was getting wrecked. Phoenix it was a slow pit stop and letting the 42 team win the race off pit road. At Martinsville, it was getting passed late after his car went away in the closing laps. At Texas, it was a late caution by Logano that derailed him. At Bristol, it was tire failures. Folks, I can go on and on about his luck. You get the point, right? I am telling you, he is going to win very soon and then he is going to get very hot. Could he get it done at Charlotte? I see no reason why not. He been fast all year on the 1.5 mile tracks and is usually pretty good at Charlotte. In his past 11 races at this track, he has compiled 7 Top 10 finishes. While having 5 finishes in the top 5 as well. He's finished 6th at Charlotte last fall. Overall in 18 starts at Charlotte at JGR, Rowdy has compiled 13 Top 10 finishes. He's rarely have a off-day at this track, so I think it is safe to say that he will be a top 10 contender. With clear upside to challenge for the win, of course.
19-Daniel Suarez: Suarez isn't having a great rookie season, but he is constantly improving though. I thought he was quite impressive at Kansas, a couple weeks ago. That was the first time this season that I thought he was a legit cup driver. You know what I love most about this guy? He is a great learner and applies the information at end of races. He don't try to get it in one swing. Nope. He is not trying to be Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott or Ryan Blaney. All had impressive rookie seasons in their respected seasons. Daniel is trying to be his own driver and not worried about living up to other young talent that came through recently. He is completing laps and finding a way to finish in the top 20 every week. If he keep doing this, then I think he is gonna be just fine at end of the season. I don't expect him to hit it out of the park every race, but it is encouraging to see solid performances out of him. What will we see out of him this weekend at Charlotte? I really don't know. It will be the longest event of his career. Anything could happen in all honestly, but I would say that 16th-22nd place range is his likely finish range. As always, he could finish better than that. But for his first 600, I wouldn't bank on it.
20-Matt Kenseth: Much like teammate, Kyle Busch, Kenseth is also having a bad luck-riddled season. Of course, for Kesneth this is a reoccurring issue every season at Joe Gibbs Racing. So I highly doubt that he is shocked by how his season has gone. Like usual, he will figure it out eventually. Through 11 races, Kenseth has only produced 4 top 10 finishes. His most recent one came over a month ago now, and that was at Bristol Motor Speedway. His numbers on the 1.5 mile tracks haven't been too bad this season overall. He's finished 9th and 3rd at Vegas and Atlanta. Add 12th place at Kansas and 16th at Texas. So all four races has ended in 16th or better. Is that terrible? Not by any means, but he also haven't contended for any wins, either. Still, it haven't been too bad. His record at Charlotte is pretty solid. In his past 7 races, he has compiled 5 top 7 finishes. Four times, he has finished in 4th or better during that span. He's finished 2nd in last fall's race. In his past three 600 races, he has compiled finishes of 7th (last year), 4th (2015) and 3rd (2014). Those are pretty strong finishes, despite it trending in the wrong direction.
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney is having a pretty good season so far, but I think it is obvious which tracks he can truly excess at and ones that he is just another driver on the track. Yes, it is the intermediate tracks, if you haven't put that together yet. More specifically, it is the 1.5 mile tracks. He was extremely strong at both Texas and Kansas. He was also very good at Vegas earlier in the season. Of all of the tracks that we have visited this season, I think Atlanta is the most similar track to compare it to. It does not have major tire-wear such as Atlanta. But I still think it is the most similar track. Kansas, Texas and Vegas has less fall-off than at a place like Charlotte. Also, it has that worn-out feel to it. Just not quite as much as at Atlanta. Before the Texas' repave, I probably would had made a strong comparison to it. But it is a different track now though. It would had been perfect since, it was far more recently. Anyways, I think Blaney will be pretty good this weekend. Problem is, his track record here is pretty unimpressive, but he's also only have four starts. Still three of four races, he was pretty noncompetitive, too. His best race by far was in 2015, where he's finished 14th place. I have mix feelings about Blaney this weekend. I want to believe that he will contend up front, but part of me cannot. After practice, I am sure I will have a better idea regardless. Right now, I have him penciled in as a low-end top 10 driver to low-teen driver!
22-Joey Logano: Logano is a driver that I feel like is not getting a lot of love this week for Charlotte. I am totally fine by that because personally I have him on my fantasy radar. Most people are jumping off the Logano's bandwagon because he had a bad race at Kansas. I get that and understand that logically. However, I usually like staying on the bandwagon after a driver have a bad week. Why? Because good chance that they will be motivated to finish well the next race. Sounds crazy, but it usually pan out pretty well. He's also been pretty good on the intermediate tracks this season. Outside of Kansas, he has finishes of 6th, 4th and 3rd in his first three races on this kind of track. Another thing to like about Logano? 8 of 11 races this season has ended in 6th or better. Sure his past two races ended in 31st and 37th, but neither were his fault though. At Talladega, he was involved in a wreck. At Kansas, he had a mechanical failure. His record at Charlotte is nearly spotless, too. In 16 career starts, he has 13 finishes of 13th or better. In those 16 races, he has 9.5 career average finish. More recently, he has compiled 3 top 9 finishes in his past five races.
24-Chase Elliott: It is still up for debate weather or not that Elliott is having a sophomore slump, but after 11 races I think he is having one. There's still plenty of time to turn it around, but in the off-season I thought it nearly impossible for him to have a better season in 2017 than his rookie year. As his rookie year was so good, we are bound to be disappointed in year number 2. It's Kyle Larson in 2015 and 2016 all over again with Elliott. That's the downside to coming into the top level with such a bang. People are spoiled and expect the results to continue. The facts are Elliott is a young driver and will have his ups and downs. Right now, he is struggling to contend for wins unlike last year. He is running up front in portions of the races, but he doesn't seem to stay there for long. His last top 5 finish (and laps led) were back at Martinsville. That streak will extend to 2 months, if he fails to finish in the top 5 or lead any laps this weekend. He was very strong at Charlotte in last fall's event, but I think HMS was performing at a much higher level than though.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman is having a pretty down year in 2017 so far. Even on the short tracks, Newman is looking just decent overall. The intermediate tracks on the other hand has been a complete disaster. He did finish 15th at Cali, but on the 1.5 mile tracks, it has much worse. His results on the four tracks: 35th, 17th, 26th and 40th. It is a little unfair to base him on sole results. He had a couple good runs that ended poorly. He ran top 10 strong at Atlanta, but had issues late. He was top 10 good at Vegas, but had issues on pit road. He sucked at Texas, there is no way around that. At Kansas? Top 10 to top 15 good, but he had a oil pump issue. So it is not like that he has been complete garbage, it just that he haven't gotten any results. His numbers are pretty solid at Charlotte, for whatever it is worth. In his past 4 races here, he has compiled 8.75 average finish with 3 top 10 finishes. In his past 5 races overall at Charlotte, Newman has compiled 4 top 10 finishes. He is currently has 8 straight top 15 finishes at this track. Including 6 Top 10 finishes since the 2013 season.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt is having a okay season, but personally I think he is tad overrated. He is getting much more credit than I think he deserves. Sure, he won the Daytona 500 but otherwise he has been just above average. In 10 races since that Daytona win, Kurt has only produced 4 top 10 finishes. But everyone treating him like a superstar? I don't know about that. Sure, he is getting good runs most weeks, but just top 10 finishes? That's not good enough to me. He need to run in the top 5 more often before I start to give him more respect than I already do. With that said, he is running better of late than he was between Vegas and Bristol. I view him as a top 10 driver this weekend personally. I think it is a pretty safe bet honestly.
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson is a driver that I will have my eyes on this weekend in the 600. He seems to have semi-bad luck here often through his young career. But Larson is on a mission this season it seems to make up for his lack of performance in recent seasons. He is fast week in and week out, I don't think it will change at Charlotte. Something I did notice at the All-star race? Kyle Larson only got better as the run went on. Short stages, but he could make passes at end of stages. Unlike most drivers out there towards the front. With track position and clean air being key, I think having that long run speed will be important. Larson has had it more often than not this season. If I had to pick a driver to go to victory lane right now, it would be the driver of the No.42 car. He haven't finished worse than 6th on his type of track this season. And only once this season has he finished worse than 2nd on this type of track. And that was at Kansas, after fading late in the event to outside of the top 5.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson had a strong race at the all-star race and will look to use it as momentum at the 600. I think the 48 car will be one of the drivers to beat this weekend in the big race. Johnson has impressive track record at Charlotte and can easily build on that, after success on recent 1.5 mile tracks. He was pretty good at Kansas, a couple weeks ago, but got involved in a wreck. He won at Texas last month, so he have both of those things going for him right now. So the momentum and track-type success is on his side at the moment. Does he cash in on Sunday night? He could and I definitely wouldn't rule it out. But personally, I think Johnson will be overrated by the nascar community. I don't think he is a top 3 driver headed into the weekend.
77-Erik Jones: There is a lot of things that I could say about Erik Jones after 11 races, but the obvious would be that he is very talented. He is very talented, but he does have a lot to learn. If he can limit the mistakes, I think Jones can go to victory lane before the season is over. I think Jones big issue is that over drives his car sometimes and that leads to problems. He is aggressive and is not afraid to let you know it, either. I also think that Jones have a knack for finding bad luck. Not a good thing. As for the 600, I think Jones will be a major player in the event. He is very capable of finishing in the top 10, but I am also afraid that he won't put a full-race together. That maybe his biggest issue right now. Not putting the races together.
78-Martin Truex Jr: After his win at Kansas, I think many people (like myself) are expecting Truex Jr to go out and dominate the 600. As he did last year. But you know what I was hearing after the All-star race? What was wrong with Truex? I thought he would dominate? Or whatever people came up with. Folks, there's a difference between a sprint and 600 mile event. He didn't really do that well in last year all-star and still dominated the 600. Exactly why I don't put much into the All-star race. It is fool gold. I take little things away, but I never put too much stock into it. I think Truex Jr going to one of the drivers to beat the 600. You can take the money to the bank. The No.78 car will be a factor and you count on it. The 78 car over the past couple seasons been at it best on the 1.5 mile tracks. This weekend will be no different!
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr is having a terrible season and he had a terrible season last year, even before his injury. I think it is time to face that Dale Jr is no longer an elite driver. For a couple years there in the 88 car, he was the most consistent driver in the series. And no, I am not just saying that. From 2013 to 2015, no driver in the series had a better average finish. Week in and week out, he was near the front. That Dale Jr isn't there, he has faded and no longer contending for top 10 finishes on a weekly basis. But I am not completely giving up on him. I think there are some races were, he can definitely get quality finishes at. Is Charlotte one of them? Probably not. Since joining HMS in 2008, Dale Jr has only compiled 4 top 10 finishes in 16 starts. While only producing 6 top 15 finishes in those 16 races. I wouldn't hold my breath for Dale Jr to add another top 10 to his season total. But who knows, right?
****All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
