Welcome to TimersSports
I am ready for the Dayonta 500 and I am also ready for my 5th season covering Fantasy Nascar with timerssports. I cannot tell you how many nights I spent up at 1 or 2 am, trying to finish up articles during the season. And then having a nice long drink, admiring all of my hard work. There's no better feeling, folks! There's many different methods you can use to find success in Fantasy Nascar. For me, I think there three key elements to consider: 1) momentum. 2) seasonal data (on that specific type of track) and past season data. 3) Relevant practice data and qualifying results. As for the Daytona 500, the only real thing we can look at is past season's data. As momentum is useless, since we don't have any races under our belts. And practice data is worthless at the plate tracks, in my opinion. If you want to take it into consideration then fine. But there's a good chance, you won't learn much from it!
Let's get started on today's article!
Preview -
1-JMac: I think JMac is one of the hardest plate racers to read honestly. You could say he's a great plate racer (as he has a knack for winning at these venues in the past) or you could say he's overrated. I think both are a little true about him. He won the Daytona 500 back in 2010 and then he won at Talladega in 2013 as well. However, his numbers has been average in recent years. He's usually run well at these plate tracks, but doesn't always get the finishes though. In his past 7 races, he has two poor races, where he couldn't finish the race. July 2016 (wreck - finished 34th) and July 2014 (wreck - 30th). If you take those two races out, he has compiled 16.0 average finish with 14.4 average running position and 86.4 driver rating. Performance wise, he's ranked as the 6th-best driver in terms of average running position in those 5 races. This comes as no surprise, as JMac is known to be a solid plate racer. Even though, he has only one top 10 finish in that span. Still, he is a solid plate racer. He has potential, but I think he is overrated in general though.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is considered one of the best plate racers in the series. He may have some bad races from time to time, but it not because lack of talent on this type of track. He always have strong performance and if he's finishes poorly, it is because of a crash. Over his past 5 races (minus 2015 Daytona 500 - had blown engine), he has compiled 14.2 average finish with 14.8 average running position and 89.9 driver rating. In that 5-race span, he's ranked about the 6th-best driver overall. His numbers at Daytona back up with we already know: Keselowski is an accomplished plate racer. He may not always get top 5 finishes, but he has what it take to get the job done. I would take a shot with him anytime we come to a plate race, because he's just that damn good. Also take into consideration, he has won 3 plate races over his past 10 plate races, too. We have a top 5 fantasy pick on our hands.
3-Austin Dillon: One of the biggest questions headed into the 2017 season is when will Austin Dillon win his first Cup race? Well, I am not exactly sure. However, I am willing to bet it will come at Daytona or Talladega. This dude been a straight up stud since his debut at both venues. Daytona is his better track though and wouldn't it be fitting his first win comes at the Daytona 500? It is realistic to think, he could win the big race honestly. Dillon loves Daytona and it loves him nack it seems. Since joining the #3 team (in 2014), Dillon has been unstoppable pretty much. In his past 6 races here, he has compiled 8.5 average finish with 16.8 average running position and 82.6 driver rating. Is his average running position and driver rating a little down from where I would like? Sure it is, but I am not going to complain when looking at his finishes. In those 6 races, he has finished 14th or better every single time. While finishing 5 of those 6 races inside the top 9. That's damn good!
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is another driver a lot of people had talked about in the off-season, on weather he would be the same driver from the last couple seasons? I think he will, after all I ranked him 2nd in my pre-season rankings. Why am I so high on him? Simply because I know what Kevin and Rodney are capable of doing. They will figure it and have that #4 car rolling after a couple races in. As for Daytona, I expect Harvick to be one of the primary drivers to beat. He's a great plate racer and know how to use the draft extremely well. Harvick doesn't always get the credit deserves at places like Daytona. But he should, as he is usually in the mix for the win at some point.
5-Kasey Kahne: I will give credit where's credit is due: Kasey Kahne and the #5 team went on an impressive run to end last season. I will say that he delivered consistency for most of the chase and I jumped on the Kahne bandwagon. However, heading into the Daytona 500, I am not sure how he will do in 2017. I think he will do better than the last couple seasons, but I refuse to touch him on the plate tracks regardless. Kahne is a mess waiting to happen and usually find ways to locate the nearest crash. He can (most likely will) find a way to finish off the lead lap. As 6 of his last 8 Daytona races ended in 27th or worse. That's terrible! There is good news on the Daytona front though. Yes, I know after reading a stat like, it is tough to find a silver lining. However, he does have two top 15 finishes in those 8 races. His last two Daytona 500 finishes are 9th and 13th. Not saying much, since it is a small sample-size tend. But it is better nothing, right? Like I said, I wouldn't touch Kahne here.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin used to be a very average plate racer (at best), but he has turned it around over the past three seasons. And he is now known as the best plate racer in Nascar. No driver has been as good as Hamlin, especially at Daytona. Over his past 6 Daytona races, he has compiled 5.5 average finish (series-best; 2nd best is Dillon at 8.5), 8.7 average running position (Series-best; 2nd-best is 12.0) and 108.0 driver rating (Series-best; 2nd-best is 96.8). Point being? Hamlin has been great for the past three seasons and doesn't stop there honestly. He's been running well for the past 10 Daytona races actually. Over his past 10 Daytona races (back to start of 2012 season), he has compiled 11.2 average finish (2nd-best to Dale Jr's 10.3), 1 win (tied for 2nd-most; Junior has 2 wins), 5 Top 5 finishes (tied for the most top 5 finishes), 6 Top 10 finishes (tied for the most top 10 finishes), 242 laps led (2nd-most in the series to Matt Kenseth's 279), 11.7 average running position (series-best), 79% of the laps completed inside the top 15 (Most in the series) and 102.7 driver rating (Series-best). Point being? He is ranked inside the top 3 in every category over the past 10 Daytona races. No other driver can say that. Also his Daytona 500 finishes in that span are stupid good: 1st, 4th, 2nd, 14th and 4th. So 4 of the past 5 Daytona 500 races has ended inside the top 5 for Hamlin.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: RFR has been tightly under watch over the past couple seasons and the organization unwrapped some more this off-season. After they announced, they were downsizing to just 2-cars. Now that Biff is gone, all eyes are screwed on Ricky Stenhouse Jr and the No.17 team. The driver that replaced Matt Kenseth after the 2012 season. Stenhouse showed flashes of potential last season but couldn't put it together. But one thing been consistent since he entered the top series though and that been his consistency on the plate tracks. Stenhouse Jr is decent enough of a plate racer to back it up, too. In career starts, he has compiled 6 Top 20 finishes in 9 races. In 2016, he's compiled 13.5 average finish with 18.5 average running position and 71.1 driver rating, while spending roughly 40% of the laps inside the top 15. In 9 career races, he has finished just under 50% of them inside the top 12. His numbers are much better at Talladega, but still Ricky is a good wildcard to gamble on. You don't need him to finish top 10 every time at Daytona. You just need to strike your target once. He wouldn't be the worst driver to pick. Realistically, I say he's finishes inside the top 20. I say anything beyond 15th is gavy.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy doesn't have standout numbers at Daytona, but he was a force on plate races in 2016. In three races (excluding Talladega fall race), he's compiled 2.3 average finish (Series-best) with 6.0 average running position (Series-best) and 110.4 driver rating (2nd-best in series). He was a stud on this type of track. While finishing 2nd and 3rd at Daytona in 2016. Problem is those are his only top 10 finishes since the 2011 season. He has performed extremely well over his past 6 races at Daytona though. In his past 6 races at Daytona, he has compiled 11.8 average finish (6th-best) with 13.8 average running position (4th-best) and 94.3 driver rating (3rd-best). His performance numbers suggests he has been a top 5 driver over his past six races at Daytona. This is excluding the 2015 race, which really doesn't change much honestly either way. Also over his past 18 Daytona races (back to July 2007 with drivers that has at least 10 starts), he has compiled the 4th-best average finish (15.6), best-average running position (12.1) and best-driver rating (99.4). Also, he has compiled the 2nd-most laps led (355), most fast laps (80), highest % of the laps completed inside the top 15 (72%) and tied for the 2nd-most top 5 finishes (6). Rowdy was great on the plates in 2016, I think he can keep it going on this type of track at the Daytona 500!
19-Daniel Suarez: The biggest move in the off-season was when Carl Edwards announced he was retiring from Nascar immediately. This move created a chain of reactions within the JGR program. It moved up NXS Champ to the #19 ride, while making Matt Tiff (a JGR driver) a full-time driver in NXS. So yeah Edwards' surprising departure created a ripple effect-like. So what can you expect out of Daniel at Daytona? Honestly, I don't have much of a clue. He has 0 Cup starts, no experience behind the wheel of these cars and was forced into a ride. Not exactly a good combination for a young driver. Still, he is with Joe Gibbs Racing. A team that had shown major speed over the past couple seasons. I think it depends how well, he learns to use the draft. I am not super high on him at Daytona, he would probably be happy to finish on the lead lap. Top 20 would be ideal for him at the 500 in terms of realistic expectations.
20-Matt Kenseth: There are some people are who super high on Matt Kenseth at the Daytona 500 and I cannot disagree. Kenseth is a great driver on the plate tracks, but problem is he haven't had a lot of luck on the plate tracks in recent years. He's always seem to find trouble, despite performing well. Look at last season's Daytona 500? Running top 5 all race long, until Hamlin played hero and moved him up out of the way and dropped in the running order. Things like that seem to happen to him at every plate race. Hell, that seems to be the theme for Kenseth at any track over the past couple seasons. Such as Phoenix, for example. Or Kansas in 2015. It's always something with this guy, isn't it? Since joining JGR (8 races ago), he has only compiled 2 Top 15 finishes. While only finishing inside the top 20 in 3 races. Not good as his top 20% is below 40%. His consistent top 5 runs from 2008 to 2012 (with RFR) seem to be over. He does have ''strong performances'' from time to time more often than not, but cannot put together the results at Daytona with the #20 team though. Over his past 8 Daytona races (all since his debuting with JGR), he has compiled 24.5 average finish with 18.0 average running position (12th-best) and 80.2 driver rating (8th-best). So in terms of performance, he hasn't been bad but haven't been great like people would like to think in general. The thing that hurt him is, he hasn't gotten many top 15 finishes with JGR. Like any driver, you just need some luck. With some luck, Kenseth would be a super fine fantasy option at the 500. Question is will he will have it or will we see another disappointing finish from him? Guess we will find out!
21-Ryan Blaney:Blaney is entering his 2nd-full season as a cup driver with the wood bros. I think the plate tracks are a good type of track for him, but his better results has came at Talladega. While, Daytona really haven't been bad to the young driver of the #21 car. He also haven't scored any top 10 finishes, but that doesn't mean he hasn't ran well though. In his debut start, he had a blown engine and finished 39th (2014). In his past two races, he has compiled 16.5 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 88.9 driver rating. His average running position (12.5) is ranked 8th-best in the series, while his drive rating in those two races is ranked 7th-best. He's also has completed 73% of the laps inside the top 15 in his past two Daytona races. Good numbers, folks. Does this translate into results? Nope, not even close. Number of things will have to go right, but I have faith that Ryan will be a solid option for the 500. He's talented enough to get the job done.
22-Joey Logano: Logano was once an average plate racer, but that no longer the case. Many people think he was jut good on the plate races in 2016, but he been good at Daytona for the past three seasons. In past 5 races (minus poor performance in July 2015), he has compiled 7.8 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 105.7 driver rating. In those 5 races, he's ranked as the 2nd-best driver overall to only Denny Hamlin. In those 5 races, he is ranked 2nd in average finish (7.8), average running position (9.0), driver rating (105.7) and % of the laps completed in top 15 (82%). His best stat of all? He he has the best-lowest driver rating of 95.2. There's only 12 driver with a high-driver rating better than 95.2. That's just ridiculous. Joey also has been a stud on at the Daytona 500, too. In his past five Daytona 500 races, he has finished 11th or better in 4 of those races. So 80% of the time over the past 5 seasons. Folks that is damn good! He has finished 6th or better in 3 of those 4 top 11 finishes, as well. I don't know about anyone else, but I think we have a hidden gem that is obvious.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott is coming off the best rookie season since Kyle Larson in 2014 and could only get better in 2017. However, as I mentioned in my Driver Preview (last month) I do think he could regress in 2017. Hard to repeat 10 top 5 finishes and 11.3 average finish as young driver. Wouldn't surprise me if he has even better season, either though. As for plate tracks, it is the type of track that I would avoid him on though. Simply because he does not have any value on these kind of tracks. He haven't proven, he is a legit plate racer and will be too valuable at other places. If you play in a salary cap format, then he will likely be too pricey to gamble with and too valuable in limited usage formats. I am not going bore you with bunch of numbers here. He is in top equipment and has enough speed to run up front. But will he get the finish? I don't know. He could or he could not. For me, I haven't seen enough of him to trust him at Daytona. Show me something in the 500 and then my opinion might be a little different in July.
27-Paul Menard: Menard is coming off his worst season ever with RCR. Is it an accident that Ryan Newman had his worst season (in terms of stats) in quite a long time too? While Austin Dillon made the chase for the first time in his career? Anyways, that is a theory for another day. Menard is going to try to rebound in 2017, after a surprising disappointing season in 2017. One consistent strength for Menard so far in his career been on the plate tracks. He is better at Talladega but he can be productive at Daytona, too. In his past 4 races at Daytona (excluding his 36th place finish in July 2016), he has compiled 18.8 average finish with 16.3 average running position and 76.6 driver rating. Those are decent numbers overall. He has been good, I would say. As he has finished 3 of those 4 races between 16th-18th. Not bad at all for a driver like Menard. Most weekends, we can expect top 20 finishes out of Menard or maybe low-teen results on above average weekends. So if he can finish on the lead lap, then we get what we rostered him for. And don't forget, Paul had proven in the past that he can run up front on this type of track. He is a decent plate racer, there is no denying that. His numbers just isn't very good though.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman had a disappointing 2016 season (see above about Menard) and will try to refocus and make the chase in 2017 with the #31 team. At Daytona, I would say that he is an average driver honestly. There's nothing special about him at either plate track, however, he does consistently get the job done every time though. Over his last 9 Daytona races, he has compiled 6 Top 18 finishes. While 5 of those 6 finishes ended in 11th or better. Including finishes of 11th and 8th in 2 of his past three races.There is not much to say about Ryan Newman honestly. He's usually hang out back to avoid any damage and then comes to the front late in the race. There is not much else to say, other than, history says he will get a decent finish somewhere in or near the top 15.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch disappointed me last season as whole, even though he was very consistent for the first half of the season. With that said, I am not going to have high standards for him in 2017. That should fix that, haha. Anyways, I believe Kurt is the best plate racer to never win in a points-paying race. He is a straight stud on this type of track. It is time for people to start giving him some of the love. In his last 6 races at Daytona (so last 7 races for most everyone else - Kurt missed 2015 Daytona 500), he has compiled 11.3 with 11.7 average running position and 95.0 driver rating. In that span (compared to the competition), he has the 6th-best average finish (11.7), 2nd-best average running position (11.7), 2nd-most laps completed inside the top 15 (73%) and 3rd-best driver rating (95.0). In simpler terms, Kurt is a damn stud at Daytona! Additional to those numbers, he has posted 4 Top 10 finishes over his past 6 races at Daytona. I don't know what else to say about him, other than he has the right track record to make a excellent fantasy pick!
42-Kyle Larson: Before the start of the 2016 season, Kyle Larson said They (meaning Nascar) would have demolish the plate tracks for him to be comfortable on them. Oh Kyle, Kyle. Guess the Nascar Gods heard him and thought, ''I will fix you'', as Kyle Larson posted 3 Top 6 finishes in 4 races on the plate tracks. Including a pair of top 10 finishes at Daytona. Not really sure, where that came from but he is headed in the right direction based off 2016. With that said, we had seen this sort of thing before. A driver have one good year and then bang back having DNFs. However, I don't view Larson as just another driver. He is a student of the game (well race), he's love knowledge and soaks it up quickly. It will only be matter of time, before he is a common name at Daytona and Talladega both. I am not going to spend much time on stats with Larson because there isn't a lot to go on. But, I like his potential. He has a great teammate (in JMac) and will keep on improving. I do think Larson will be boom or bust at the Daytona 500 (like most drivers), so take a gamble at your own risk.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is coming off his 7th-championship season in 2016, a season many thought HMS was dead in the water around Indy. That was before the entire organization came on strong during the chase. Well deserved for the greatest driver of past 20 years. Also, Johnson is very underrated on the plate tracks. At Daytona, he is a 3-time winner and twice since start of the 2013 season. Of course, he swept Daytona that same to score those two wins. Still, doesn't take away that he is consistent solid performer at this place. As he has compiled 5 Top 5 finishes in his past 8 races overall. In his past 8 races at Daytona, he has compiled 13.4 average finish with 13.0 average running position and 98.6 driver rating. When you lay out the numbers, he is ranked inside the top 5 in all three of those categories. Behind Hamlin and Jr, I would say that Johnson been the third-best performer since 2013. He didn't really perform well in 2016, as he had finishes of 16th and 35th and his numbers were average at best. However, he is currently on a trend to love! Every other year, he has swept the top 5 since 2013. In 2013, he won both races. In 2014, he had finishes of 5th and 42nd. In 2015, he had finishes of 2nd and 5th. In 2016, he had finishes of 16th and 35th. If the trend keep up, he should be primed for another monster year at Daytona. Of course, that is just trends. Trends can be broken in any given race at any moment notice. But I do really like him for the Daytona 500. Could be a great play, nobody talking about.
77-Erik Jones: Jones will enter his Daytona 500, on a type of track that he has no experience on at the Cup level. The young FRR driver is very talented and I was very high on him in my fantasy preview in late December. I stand by what I said about him and have my very high standards for him in 2017. What should you expect from Jones at Daytona 500? I am not sure honestly. He isn't a super-fantasy option to consider at Daytona honestly. He isn't a driver that I think will be great on the plate tracks. Not like guys such as Ricky Stenhouse Jr and Austin Dillon, when they came in, there was different feeling about them. Jones is just okay on this type of track. In the lower series (recently in NXS), he's posted just 3 Top 20 finishes in 6 starts. Not really great, as his best finish been 8th. Again, he is a young driver. So I am not super high on him overall. I would expect a top 20 out of him, but not much more. Maybe somewhere in the middle-teens and that to me would be the best-case possible for him.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr was so ever close to winning the Daytona 500 in 2015. He was so close, he could taste until Denny Hamlin snagged it from him at literally the final second. That exactly what happened too. Don't think that is weighting on his mind? Or maybe the factor that he was one of the most dominant drivers of 2016 but didn't get a shot at the title because of Talladega? This man will be determined to win it all in 2017 and that will start with the Daytona 500. Truex Jr had found plenty of success so far with the #78 team at Daytona. In his past 5 races, he has compiled 3 Top 15 finishes. While his past two Daytona 500 races has ended in 2nd and 8th. He finished poorly in his last two plate races (Daytona's July race and Talladega's fall race), but he had one of the best cars at Talladega. And Daytona was messy last year, too. Also, don't forget that the 78 team is backed by JGR. So he will likely have one of the fastest cars at the Daytona 500. I like Truex Jr a lot as a off-sequence pick. He isn't the sexy product, but he is someone who proven to get the job done recently.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Earnhardt Jr will return to action in 2017, after missing second half of last season. Dale Jr is considered one of the best plate racers ever! Anyone that follows fantasy nascar knows Dale's history at Daytona. He has found so much success at this place, you cannot agure that he is complete stud here. Based on pure numbers, Hamlin had taken over the number 1 spot in regardless to plate racers. But this was after a pahtetic 2016 season from the 88 team. He wrecked twice at Daytona. Still, Hamlin barely have better numbers since 2013. Over his past 8 Daytona races, Dale Jr has compiled 10.8 average finish (2nd-best) with 12.1 average running position (2nd-best) and 98.3 driver rating (3rd-best). While posting the 2nd-most laps led (197) as well. Dale is inside the top 3 in every single category since the 2013 season. That's 8 races, so you know how well he has performed. I am not going to say anymore to convince. Good chance, you have made of your mind what you will do with Dale at the Daytona 500. Are you going to side with the majority and play it safe or take a gamble and go against him?
Look, I don't think stats are that important at plate races. We mainly use them to justify making our fantasy picks. But in the end, one crash could wipe out all of ours picks. That is plate racing. There is no good strategy and there is nothing you can do to ensure an advantage. Just go with your gut, if these numbers help then great. I personally go with the strong plate racers, because being at the front seems to be the place to be. So that why, I put a heavily amount of pressure on stats like average running position, laps inside the top 15 and driver ratings. They tell us who been strong.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheat.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
