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Today, I launch my newest article on this site. Fantasy Nascar Sleepers & Dark Horses. I touched on this last November in my final post of the 2016 season. So let's review a couple things. Firstly, these two terms are commonly confused. A lot of people like to confuse sleepers and dark horses. They are interchangeable terms, to only a certain extent. Sleepers are based on value. More specifically, they are drivers that aren't really known or expected to do much. But could exceed the original expectations of their standards. In other words, they are drivers like Paul Menard, Aric Almirola, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, etc long those lines.
Dark horses are significantly different. Like sleepers, they aren't expected to win but much more is expected of them though. Dark horses, commonly have to do with potential. Usually, they are drivers that had already stabilize themselves as top 10-cabiler drivers and have potential to win. However, they aren't expected to win, even though it isn't shocking when they do. Good examples would be drivers such as Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Austin Dillon (sometimes), Clint Bowyer, etc long those lines. So let's review again, sleepers are based on undervalue and dark horses are based on potential.
Alright let's get started!
Sleepers -
Aric Almirola - Last season was just a bad year for Aric Almirola overall. He just wasn't good nor was RPM. The best stats you say about him? He's gained 6.5 positions/per race in his final 10 races from the Bristol race to end of the year, excluding races he was involved wrecks/mechanical issues. Regardless of how bad Aric was last year, I think he could bounce back nicely. It will start with the Daytona 500. Aric is a great plate driver, too. His Daytona is pretty solid overall. In his last five races at Daytona, Aric's posted 4 Top 15 finishes. Same track, he also went to victory lane in 2014. Still, he has other good finishes. In his last 4 races here, he has posted 3 finishes of 15th or better. All between 12th-15th. Point being? Aric consistently get the results on the plate tracks. He had 3 top 15 finishes on this type of track in 2016. If you are looking for underrated option that could make a powerful punch, then Aric is your guy then.
Michael McDowell - What driver would you guess has the 9th-best average finish since July 2014 at Daytona? And what if I told you, that driver was Michael McDowell? Would you flip out? Well, hate to break the bad news, but McDowell has the 9th-best in the past 5 races at Daytona. In that span (he has 4 starts by the way), he's posted 3 finishes of 15th or better. Yes, that is correct finishes of 10th, 15th, 31st and 7th since July 2014. Overall, he has posted 4 Top 15 finishes in his past 6 races since the 2013 season. While two of his last three Daytona 500 races ended in 15th and 9th. Am I saying McDowell is that hidden weapon we look for every year at Daytona? Maybe. Could he wreck out or have blown engine on lap 1? Anything possible. Want to find out?
Cole Whitt - Cole Whitt isn't the first driver that you think of on the plate tracks, but he's finished 8 of the last 9 races at Talladega and Daytona in 25th or better. You are probably like, ''well that isn't impressive, anyone can do that.'' Fair point, but this is Cole Whitt though. Since 2015 (6 races ago), he's finished 5 of those races inside the top 22. While posting 3 Top 18 finishes in that span. Including 2 Top 18 finishes in 2016 alone. He won't be up front, he will likely hang out in the back and wait for the competition to wreck out. That Cole Whitt is a smart fellow! Why try to go swinging with the big boys and you can wait until they wreck out? Genius. So Whitty of him! Get it Whitty? Sorry, I am not funny. Anyhow, my point being he is consistent at the plate tracks. Usually finishes the races inside the top 25. I like that sort of thing. Is anyone a sure thing? No, but I would take a shot with him. Only if you like going all-in. If you don't like taking shots in the dark, then this isn't the pick for you.
Dark Horses -
Jamie McMurray - If this was an intermediate track such as Atlanta, I would likely place him under the sleeper list. But he has had plenty of success at Daytona and usually have great potential here. So I think it is fitting to label him as a dark horse. Jamie is usually one of the first drivers, we think of after the favorites. Rightfully so, too. Jamie is a two-time Daytona 500 winner. Overall, 4 of his career 5 wins came on the plate tracks. So yeah, good portion of his success been on this type of track. Recently, his success been minimal for the most part. As he's only had 5 Top 17 finishes in his past 9 races overall. But as Jeff Nathans pointed out in his Preview, his numbers during the races are far better than his finishes overall. Minus his 2014 Daytona 500 race (worst race in terms of performance), he's posted 19.6 average finish, 21.8 average start, 14.9 average running position, 65% of the laps inside the top 15 and 87.7 driver rating. Obviously 19.6 average finish isn't good overall, but it ranked 13th-best in those 8 races. Not bad. His average running of position of 14.9? 7th-best. Driver rating and % of laps inside the top 15? 7th-best and 7th-best. So across the board, Jamie is ranked as the 7th-best driver in terms of in-race performance. 8 races too much data for you? Alright, let's go to last 4 races at Daytona. 23.3 average finish, 14.8 average start, 15.8 average running position and 82.8 driver rating. 11th-best average running position and 10th-best driver rating. That's pretty good considering, his best finish is 14th and has two finishes outside of the top 25. That just says a lot about Jamie's strong performances on these tracks.
Clint Bowyer - Bowyer could really be considered as a favorite when looking at his numbers, but he hasn't gone to victory lane since the 2013 season. So hence his dark horse status tag. Regardless, Bowyer should be a driver on your fantasy radar. In just his 8 Daytona races, he's finished 11th or better in 6 races. Yes, that is 75% of the time. His numbers go up if you look at just the past 5 races. In his last 5 races at Daytona, he's finished 4 of 5 races inside the top 10. That's 80% of the time. Clint, knows how to get the job done at Daytona. I am not going to say anymore about him. I just lay out his recent success at this track. I don't think there are many drivers out there that has a better case than Clint Bowyer. Wouldn't it be sweet for him to score his first win with SHR at Daytona? Think of the story lines it would cause.
Austin Dillon - Dillon is a legit driver at Daytona. He has amazing numbers at Daytona. If I had to pick a track for him to get his win on then I would choose Daytona. He's runs very well here and consistently seems to end of the good sides of things here. In his past 6 races at Daytona, he's posted the 2nd-best average finish of 8.5. It doesn't line up with his in-race numbers quite, but he is still top 11 in average running position (16.5) and driver rating (82.6). I think the best thing about Dillon is that he hasn't had a bad race yet with the #3 team. His worst finish is February 2015. For whatever it is worth, he has finishes of either 9th or 14th at the Daytona 500 in 4 starts. He has better finishes in the July races. Does not mean much though. I guess my point being of all of this is Dillon is a legit threat and a great fantasy option. He ran extremely well here last year and we should have high hopes for him at the 500. Just maybe, he can sneak into victory lane? It is a long shot, but there is a reason why he isn't listed as a favorite.
Alright, that is all I got.
**Stats are from DriverAverages and FantasyRacingCheatSheet
Email - briggs_garry48@yahoo.com
Twitter - @Garryy12
Today, I launch my newest article on this site. Fantasy Nascar Sleepers & Dark Horses. I touched on this last November in my final post of the 2016 season. So let's review a couple things. Firstly, these two terms are commonly confused. A lot of people like to confuse sleepers and dark horses. They are interchangeable terms, to only a certain extent. Sleepers are based on value. More specifically, they are drivers that aren't really known or expected to do much. But could exceed the original expectations of their standards. In other words, they are drivers like Paul Menard, Aric Almirola, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, etc long those lines.
Dark horses are significantly different. Like sleepers, they aren't expected to win but much more is expected of them though. Dark horses, commonly have to do with potential. Usually, they are drivers that had already stabilize themselves as top 10-cabiler drivers and have potential to win. However, they aren't expected to win, even though it isn't shocking when they do. Good examples would be drivers such as Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Austin Dillon (sometimes), Clint Bowyer, etc long those lines. So let's review again, sleepers are based on undervalue and dark horses are based on potential.
Alright let's get started!
Sleepers -
Aric Almirola - Last season was just a bad year for Aric Almirola overall. He just wasn't good nor was RPM. The best stats you say about him? He's gained 6.5 positions/per race in his final 10 races from the Bristol race to end of the year, excluding races he was involved wrecks/mechanical issues. Regardless of how bad Aric was last year, I think he could bounce back nicely. It will start with the Daytona 500. Aric is a great plate driver, too. His Daytona is pretty solid overall. In his last five races at Daytona, Aric's posted 4 Top 15 finishes. Same track, he also went to victory lane in 2014. Still, he has other good finishes. In his last 4 races here, he has posted 3 finishes of 15th or better. All between 12th-15th. Point being? Aric consistently get the results on the plate tracks. He had 3 top 15 finishes on this type of track in 2016. If you are looking for underrated option that could make a powerful punch, then Aric is your guy then.
Michael McDowell - What driver would you guess has the 9th-best average finish since July 2014 at Daytona? And what if I told you, that driver was Michael McDowell? Would you flip out? Well, hate to break the bad news, but McDowell has the 9th-best in the past 5 races at Daytona. In that span (he has 4 starts by the way), he's posted 3 finishes of 15th or better. Yes, that is correct finishes of 10th, 15th, 31st and 7th since July 2014. Overall, he has posted 4 Top 15 finishes in his past 6 races since the 2013 season. While two of his last three Daytona 500 races ended in 15th and 9th. Am I saying McDowell is that hidden weapon we look for every year at Daytona? Maybe. Could he wreck out or have blown engine on lap 1? Anything possible. Want to find out?
Cole Whitt - Cole Whitt isn't the first driver that you think of on the plate tracks, but he's finished 8 of the last 9 races at Talladega and Daytona in 25th or better. You are probably like, ''well that isn't impressive, anyone can do that.'' Fair point, but this is Cole Whitt though. Since 2015 (6 races ago), he's finished 5 of those races inside the top 22. While posting 3 Top 18 finishes in that span. Including 2 Top 18 finishes in 2016 alone. He won't be up front, he will likely hang out in the back and wait for the competition to wreck out. That Cole Whitt is a smart fellow! Why try to go swinging with the big boys and you can wait until they wreck out? Genius. So Whitty of him! Get it Whitty? Sorry, I am not funny. Anyhow, my point being he is consistent at the plate tracks. Usually finishes the races inside the top 25. I like that sort of thing. Is anyone a sure thing? No, but I would take a shot with him. Only if you like going all-in. If you don't like taking shots in the dark, then this isn't the pick for you.
Dark Horses -
Jamie McMurray - If this was an intermediate track such as Atlanta, I would likely place him under the sleeper list. But he has had plenty of success at Daytona and usually have great potential here. So I think it is fitting to label him as a dark horse. Jamie is usually one of the first drivers, we think of after the favorites. Rightfully so, too. Jamie is a two-time Daytona 500 winner. Overall, 4 of his career 5 wins came on the plate tracks. So yeah, good portion of his success been on this type of track. Recently, his success been minimal for the most part. As he's only had 5 Top 17 finishes in his past 9 races overall. But as Jeff Nathans pointed out in his Preview, his numbers during the races are far better than his finishes overall. Minus his 2014 Daytona 500 race (worst race in terms of performance), he's posted 19.6 average finish, 21.8 average start, 14.9 average running position, 65% of the laps inside the top 15 and 87.7 driver rating. Obviously 19.6 average finish isn't good overall, but it ranked 13th-best in those 8 races. Not bad. His average running of position of 14.9? 7th-best. Driver rating and % of laps inside the top 15? 7th-best and 7th-best. So across the board, Jamie is ranked as the 7th-best driver in terms of in-race performance. 8 races too much data for you? Alright, let's go to last 4 races at Daytona. 23.3 average finish, 14.8 average start, 15.8 average running position and 82.8 driver rating. 11th-best average running position and 10th-best driver rating. That's pretty good considering, his best finish is 14th and has two finishes outside of the top 25. That just says a lot about Jamie's strong performances on these tracks.
Clint Bowyer - Bowyer could really be considered as a favorite when looking at his numbers, but he hasn't gone to victory lane since the 2013 season. So hence his dark horse status tag. Regardless, Bowyer should be a driver on your fantasy radar. In just his 8 Daytona races, he's finished 11th or better in 6 races. Yes, that is 75% of the time. His numbers go up if you look at just the past 5 races. In his last 5 races at Daytona, he's finished 4 of 5 races inside the top 10. That's 80% of the time. Clint, knows how to get the job done at Daytona. I am not going to say anymore about him. I just lay out his recent success at this track. I don't think there are many drivers out there that has a better case than Clint Bowyer. Wouldn't it be sweet for him to score his first win with SHR at Daytona? Think of the story lines it would cause.
Austin Dillon - Dillon is a legit driver at Daytona. He has amazing numbers at Daytona. If I had to pick a track for him to get his win on then I would choose Daytona. He's runs very well here and consistently seems to end of the good sides of things here. In his past 6 races at Daytona, he's posted the 2nd-best average finish of 8.5. It doesn't line up with his in-race numbers quite, but he is still top 11 in average running position (16.5) and driver rating (82.6). I think the best thing about Dillon is that he hasn't had a bad race yet with the #3 team. His worst finish is February 2015. For whatever it is worth, he has finishes of either 9th or 14th at the Daytona 500 in 4 starts. He has better finishes in the July races. Does not mean much though. I guess my point being of all of this is Dillon is a legit threat and a great fantasy option. He ran extremely well here last year and we should have high hopes for him at the 500. Just maybe, he can sneak into victory lane? It is a long shot, but there is a reason why he isn't listed as a favorite.
Alright, that is all I got.
**Stats are from DriverAverages and FantasyRacingCheatSheet
Email - briggs_garry48@yahoo.com
Twitter - @Garryy12
