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Fantasy Nascar Update -
1. Matt Kenseth - I sat here late last night (and early this morning) and tried to find a legit reason to not rank Matt Kenseth number 1. And well, I didn't come to any. He is starting on the pole and had a great car all day on Friday. That usually does not automatically translate, but he was great here in 2016 in the fall race. I think he could had a shot at winning, if he didn't have issues. Also, Kenseth has a history of leading a lot of laps from the front row. The last two times he has started on the front row, he have led 164 laps and 352 laps. He led 164 laps from the pole earlier this season in the spring race. And he led 352 laps in 2015 in the fall race. He kicked the shit out of the field that day. Don't be shocked, if that happened again.
2. Kyle Busch - Kyle is starting further back in the field than we are use to, but he is great here at Richmond. He loves this track and I think he can go to victory lane tonight. Earlier this season here, he was strong. He could have won that race, if he didn't get a penalty late in the event. He charged through the field late, but it should had been a much better result. In recent weeks, we have seen the 18 car be the most consistent driver in the field. Since dominating at Indy, Kyle has been on a tear. Every single race, he has finished in the top 2, minus Watkins Glen. He is starting 7th, but you can expect the 18 car to be a heavy contender in tonight's race. He has speed, momentum and a great record. Usually those are signs of a great fantasy pick!
3. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is the defending race winner of this event and last week's race winner, too. So yeah, it is good to be Denny Hamlin right now. He was great here last year. I wouldn't call him the dominant car (him and Truex Jr both were), but he was the one who went to victory lane. Hamlin always been great at Richmond and he is starting on the front row. Starting up front at Richmond recently has led to nothing but great things. In 5 of the last 6 races, the winner has started in the top 4. Including the past two fall race winners starting either 1st or 2nd. Weather you want to believe it or not, starting position has been huge in prediction the winner at Richmond. This always haven't been the case, but the past few years it has been.
4. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr is the forgotten man when we head to these kind of tracks, but I am 100% okay with that. He has been great on this kind of track. He led a lot of laps here last year and proved to us that he can run up front on these shorter tracks. He is a bit more inconsistent at places like Richmond, but that doesn't mean he cannot be a contender. Mark my words, he will be a contender and some will be shocked. If you pay enough attention to Nascar on a weekly basis, you should not be surprised that Truex Jr will have one of the better cars again tonight. He is just not good on the intermediate tracks. That team has worked very hard to improve across the board. They have that and Truex Jr should be considered one of the drivers to beat.
5. Kurt Busch - I see you there, Kurt Busch! Week after week, I have heavily criticized Kurt Busch and this 41 team. Week in and week out since middle of last year. But over the past few weeks, my tone has completely changed on this 41 car. They have speed and they are running more towards the front. Last week, he was great. He led some laps and finished in the top 5. This weekend, I think he may have a even better car. He is starting 3rd and he is a former winner at this track. One of his wins with the 41 team has came here. With all of the momentum that he has in the recent weeks, it might be the best time to jump on the Kurt Busch bandwagon.
6. Kyle Larson - A lot of people are high on the driver of the No.42 this weekend, but I am just not buying the product that he is selling. Sorry, but I think he will fall back at some point. Larson has a habit of starting of front (lately) and falling back as we get into second half of the race. Not only lately, but here at Richmond, too. In 7 career starts, he has only once finished better than he started. And that was back in 2014, when he started 11th and finished 8th. And if you notice something of Larson lately, then it is he haven't had many top 10 finishes, either. Let's exclude his Michigan win and look at his numbers: Past 5 races, he has finished worse than he started. With no finishes better than 9th. Outside of his win, he is looking lackluster overall. He runs well, but for whatever reason, he is fading late in races. History is not on his side at Richmond!
7. Kevin Harvick - Harvick was great in last weekend's race at Darlington. He was strong all night long, but his pit strategy never worked out. I think his race really went to hell when he had to pit early. Not enough drivers came to pit road with him. The guys that were running ahead of him all stayed out longer. In the end, we didn't get another caution and he had to lay in his bed. If things went differently, I still think he would had finished like 4th or 5th. He was the 5th best car towards end of that race. Hamlin, Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch and Truex Jr were better, in my opinion. Early in the race, he was the best car. But he was also out in clear air. My point of going back to all of this? Kevin Harvick is still lacking speed and he cannot get over the hump. This weekend, I think he can challenge for a top 5 run, but like most weeks, he will likely settle in and finish just in the top 10.
8. Joey Logano - I know there are some people thinking that Joey Logano can win tonight. I don't disagree with that. He can win here and he has enough speed to do it, however he has slim chances to get it done. Week after week, the 22 team is nothing more top 10 good. And sometimes, they fall outside of the top 15. Heck, we seen it happen several times over the past few weeks. We saw it last week at Darlington, in fact. Point being? Logano has nothing to lose. He has a good car, but I don't think it is good enough to challenge for the win. He is a former winner here, but Penske isn't on the same level as in the past. That's a problem, if you are Joey Logano. If you want to bet against me and use him, then go right ahead. I will take the odds and say he doesn't make the playoffs.
9. Brad Keselowski - I probably should have Keselowski higher, but I am usually not super high on Keselowski. Time and time again, Keselowski has proven this summer that he isn't a threat to win or can consistently challenge for a top 5 run. Outside of Michigan, I haven't seen him be a top 5 contender. There were times last week, where he looked capable but otherwise he is looking just okay. So putting it altogether, he is a top 10 driver. I wouldn't be shocked if he can sneak into the top 5 and make a run. But like with Logano, I believe that Penske is lacking. I say he will finish between 6th-11th range. That is usually the range for him.
10. Chase Elliott - I am not sure what to expect from Elliott this weekend. He have been just okay at Richmond so far in his cup career. This was considered one of his best tracks in the lower series, so I have expected more from him.And this season as whole has been a guessing game for the most part with predicting Elliott's finishes. So logically, he will end up going to victory lane, right? He is starting in the top 10, so he has that going for him. In his past 8 races this season, he has finished 11th or better in 5 races. Including last week at Darlington. He finished 11th back at New Hampshire, if you were curious. I say he finished in the 8th-14th range. I don't think will contend much in the top 5, but high single digits and low teens seems pretty likely though.
Next -
Erik Jones
Jamie Mac
Jimmie Johnson
Ryan Newman
Clint Bowyer
****All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
