Saturday, September 02, 2017

2017 Fantasy Nascar Update (Darlington)

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Fantasy Nascar Update -

1. Kevin Harvick - It is very hard to  overlook Kevin's numbers over the past couple seasons here at Darlington. He has been very impressive, while leading over 200 laps in 2 of his last three starts here. He will start from the pole once again and has clearly inserted himself as the odds-on favorite to win on Sunday night. In practice, I thought he was in the top 3 or 4. But I don't think there was a obvious favorite, but he put himself over the top in qualifying though. Just because he was good on Friday and Saturday, does not mean he will be as good on Sunday. HOWEVER, it is hard to go against him though. Everything points to Kevin Harvick leading laps at a track that he has been strong on lately.

2. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch is running in a league of his own over the past month or so and he will start 4th on Sunday night. I don't think he has a car that will lead the most laps, because I think all of the contenders are pretty close overall. But I think Kyle's abilities behind the wheel will help set himself from rest of the pack. Not just anybody can master this place, but the driver of the No.18 car has. He is a great driver here and has been throughout his cup career. He looked pretty good in practice and like usual he is a top 5 driver. Good track record, good speed, good momentum. He is hitting all of the main points.

3. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr is having amazing season so far and he hope to keep it up at Darlington. He won this race last season and he will start from 2nd place on Sunday night at Darlington. I think the 78 car will be strong once again this weekend. He haven't looked quite as good as he have during other weekends, but still pretty good overall. I believe he will be a heavy contender for the win. I think Harvick is going to lead laps early on, but the guy starting next to him will eventually take commend though. Two weeks ago at Bristol, it was a rare flute that he didn't lead any laps. He had to pit for a down tire. If he didn't, he would had something to say about who won that race. The week prior to that, Truex Jr got passed with 2 to go. I think this 78 team will be motivated to get back to victory lane. I wouldn't be shocked if he won again this weekend.

4. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is having a nice second half of the season, as many of fantasy nascar peeps were thinking. He has done this the past couple seasons, so guess it is not too shocking. Darlington is a very good track for him, too. From career point of view, I would consider it as one of his best tracks. He always run well here and he is starting up in the top 10. Hamlin starting in the top 10 here has led to very good things. When starting 9th or better at Darlington, he haven't finished worse than 6th place since 2007 season. In his last such starts, he haven't finished worse 4th. Including 4 of his last 6 races here at Darlington, he have finished 4th or better overall. Momentum wise, he is on a roll lately. In his past 10 races (since mid-June), he have compiled 7 finishes of 4th or better. Don't overlook Denny Hamlin this weekend!

5. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth looks really good again this weekend, as he did a few weeks ago at Bristol. I am not shocked at all the 20 car has some speed in it as he is on the cut line right now. All it will take is a win from a guy like Erik Jones or someone. And with the way that Jones is running, I would be pretty concerned. If I was Matt Kenseth and everyone on that 20 team, I would be busting my ass of to get back to victory lane. There's only two races left before the cut-off, but that's plenty of time for someone to swoop in there and steal a playoffs spot. He's good enough this weekend to challenge for a top 5 finish, in my opinion. He will need some things to go in his favor to win though.

6. Kyle Larson - Larson is having a great season so far and he will start from 4th. Larson has been at his best on the intermediate tracks, but he is showing speed on every type of track pretty much. With that said, he has off considerably of late though. In his 4 of his past 5 races, he have finished worse than he started. He has a win during that span though. At Darlington, he is very good here. He's never finished outside of the top 10, but I wouldn't say he ever contended for a win here, either. He did finish career-best in last season's race. I think the 42 car has one of the better cars here throughout the weekend and proved it by qualifying well. However, I don't think he will win. The 42 team has been trending in the wrong direction at end of the races lately. For whatever reason, Larson seems to be running his best in the first half of the race. He need to break out of that funk. I do think he is capable of winning. He certainly has enough speed to finish in the top 5 (or at least challenge for it).

7. Brad Keselowski - My opinion of Keselowski during the summer months haven't really changed much, other than the Michigan's race. The Penske has been pretty predictable overall. Top 10 good, but that's it. This weekend at Darlington it seems like that's the common theme once again. Good, but not good enough to be a true threat to win. He may hover around the top 5 or so, but I don't see him contending for the win though. I wouldn't honestly be shocked if he finished in the top 5. I say he finishes somewhere between 6th-10th. Penske just seems to be a little behind the top teams right now.

8. JMac - The past couple months, Jamie have had a habit of finishing worse than he started. The good news is that he is starting from 5th place and there is a good chance that he can finish in the top 10. I wouldn't expect a top 5 finish, regardless of where he is starting from. Jamie is just not that kind of driver. He is not someone who will go out there and exceed his expectations. It's just not him and we cannot expect it from him. When he does it, then it's awesome. However, most weeks his upside is just top 10. He's defintely good enough to challenge for a top 10 finish, in my opinion. If worse comes to worse, he will finish no worse than 12th. If is if everything goes according to plan.

9. Ryan Blaney - Blaney is having a tough summer, despite winning earlier this season at Michigan. In his last 13 races (dating back to his win in June), he have just 5 Top 10 finishes. If you exclude his win, he does not any finishes better than 8th place and that was Watkins Glen. As you can see, he haven't got many ''great'' finishes over the past couple months. At best, he is back end of the top 10 or in the teens. From 8th-15th is where I think is where he will most likely finish in. Time to time, he have ran better than that. But never seem to be there at end of the races. Being there at end of races is very important. Blaney has a good enough car to challenge for a top 10 finish, but his team won't be able to get him over the hump and beyond.

10. Kurt Busch - If you need a good dark horse for Sunday's night race, maybe you should consider the pole sitter's teammate in Kurt Busch. The 41 car has been pretty good all weekend long and he will start from inside the top 10. He is clearly not as good as his teammate (Kevin Harvick), but he is not suppose to be anyways. He is coming off a top 5 finish at Bristol and he is looking to keep that momentum going from it. I wouldn't call this a great track for him, but it is not terrible though. I like him a lot as a top 10 contender with some upside. I think he is someone who can suprise a lot of people during the race.

Also consider -

Jimmie Johnson
Joey Logano
Erik Jones
Chase Elliott
Ryan Newman

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

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