2018 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Austin Dillon

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Driver Name: Austin Dillon

Car #: 3

Make: Chevy

Season Debut: 2014 (First-Full Season)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 157

# of Career Poles: 3

# of Career Wins: 1

# of Career Top 5s: 9 

# of Career Top 10s: 26

# of Career DNFs: 12

# of Career laps led: 78

Career Average Finish: 18.7  

Career Average Start: 17.7

# of 2017 Wins: 1

# of 2017 Top 5s: 3

# of 2017 Top 10s: 4

# of 2017 Poles: 0  

# of 2017 DNFs: 5

# of 2017 laps led: 12

2017 Average Finish: 18.6

2017 Average Start: 19.1

2017 Fantasy Recap - Heading into the 2017 season, there were very high hopes for Austin Dillon. He was coming off a very strong and consistent season, where he appeared to be making that ''next step'' as I referred to as. Did he actually take the next step in 2017? It is very debatable. A lot of people say he did since he won a race. But for me, it is only part of it. Minus his win, his numbers across the board dipped dramatically. His top 5 went down from 4 to 3. His top 10 went down from 13 to 4. His average finish in 2016 was 14.8, in 2017 it was 18.6. While his average start in 2016 was 14.0, in 2017 it was 19.1. Dillon also saw his number of poles and laps led drop, too. So aside from wins, it is hard to say that Dillon really took that next step. It is great he scored the win, even though it was probably pure. Still, he need to prove himself before he is taken seriously as a top driver in Nascar.

Strong Tracks - Kansas, Charlotte, Michigan and Daytona  

Weak Tracks - Watkins Glenn and Richmond 

Yahoo Grouping Tier: B-list Grouping Tier 

2018 Fantasy Outlook - It is hard to say what to expect from Austin Dillon in 2018. He had a great 2016 and then had up and down 2017 season. His highlight was obviously his win, but other than he had very few good thing happen for him. His average finish of 18.6 says a lot about him last year and I don't really blame him for it though. RCR's speed was clearly a big factor for the lack of contention throughout 2017. Will it see improvement in 2018? I think there is the chance of that. The greatest thing about racing, it is always room for improvement and there are always room for thinking ways to improvement. It doesn't take much to find it, either. I think Dillon's success will have a lot to do with how quick they come out of the gate.

*All stats are from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2018 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Brad Keselowski

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Driver Name: Brad Keselowski

Car #: 2

Make: Ford

Season Debut: 2010  (First-Full Season)

Number of Championships: 1

# of Career Starts: 305

# of Career Poles: 14

# of Career Wins: 24

# of Career Top 5s: 90 

# of Career Top 10s: 247

# of Career DNFs: 20

# of Career laps led: 5,610

Career Average Finish: 14.2 

Career Average Start: 13.3

# of 2017 Wins: 3

# of 2017 Top 5s: 15

# of 2017 Top 10s: 21

# of 2017 Poles: 2

# of 2017 DNFs: 5

# of 2017 laps led: 778

2017 Average Finish: 12.4

2017 Average Start: 8.8

2017 Fantasy Recap -  I was pretty tough on Brad Keselowski throughout the 2017 season and for the most part it was because I knew what he was capable of. Overall, Keselowski wasn't in that top 3 or 4 group of drivers in terms of speed. But what he did very well was finish. He finished and he was very consistent. If you notice, he had 15 top 5 finishes and 21 top 10 finishes. He wasn't always a top 5 contender, but he almost always was close to that top 5 mark at end of the race though. His numbers were slighter better in 2016 than it was in 2017, but overall they are pretty similar. For comparison, his 2016 season was his second-best season in terms of stats overall.

Strong Tracks -  New Hampshire, Richmond, Chicago, Kentucky and Watkins Glenn

Weak Tracks - Sonoma and Daytona   

Yahoo Grouping Tier: A-list grouping tier

2018 Fantasy Outlook - Over 3 of the last 4 seasons, Keselowski has produced at least 3 wins with 15+ Top 5 finishes and 20+ Top 10 finishes. That's right up there among the elite in Nascar! I have high expectations for Brad Keselowski and the 2 team in 2018. He will be very consistent on a weekly basis and won't have many bad races. Keselowski's biggest advantage is probably his ability to qualify up front and to turn them into quality finishes. That's the model of the 2 team. Start up front and finish there, too. His strongest tracks will be the intermediate tracks, shorter tracks, flats and Watkins Glenn. I would have to say that Kentucky is his very best racetrack though. There or Watkins Glenn, really. Aside from those tracks, I really love him on the shorter flats, too. He's really good at places such as Phoenix, Richmond and Martinsville. He has had a lot of success at these tracks in seasons past.

*All stats are from DriverAverages.com


Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2018 Fantasy Nascar Profile: JMac

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Driver Name: Jamie Mac

Car #: 1

Make: Chevy

Season Debut: 2003 (First-Full Season)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 546

# of Career Poles: 11

# of Career Wins: 7

# of Career Top 5s:  61

# of Career Top 10s: 160

# of Career DNFs: 55

# of Career laps led: 1,888

Career Average Finish: 18.2 

Career Average Start: 18.1

# of 2017 Wins: 0

# of 2017 Top 5s: 3

# of 2017 Top 10s: 17

# of 2017 Poles: 0

# of 2017 DNFs: 5

# of 2017 laps led: 21

2017 Average Finish: 14.6

2017 Average Start: 10.1

2017 Fantasy Recap - Jamie Mac had incredible 2017 season. He posted a career high-17 Top 10 finishes and career-best 14.6 average finish. While posting his best mark of 3 top 5 finishes in the last three seasons and his career second-best average starting position of 10.1. Just by looking at those numbers, it is safe to say that he had a pretty productive season. He wasn't contending for top 5 runs often, but he was very consistent. Over the last few seasons, that has been Jamie's trademark. It is what has given him solid fantasy value. if you take away his consistent, I don't think he would offer much because of his lackluster upside. Overall, he had heck of a season in 2017!

Strong Tracks -  Bristol, Martinsville, Dover, Richmond and Michigan

Weak Tracks - Kansas and Pocono 

Yahoo Grouping Tier: B-list grouping tier

2018 Fantasy Outlook -Jamie's 2018 season will most likely look very similar to 2017's numbers. He will have to remind consistent throughout the season to contuine to offer up solid fantasy value. If he isn't consistent, then he probably won't be a realistic option in most formats. Even if he is consistent, I am not sure if there are many games out there where he will be considered on a weekly basis. His lackluster upside will always be his biggest disavdantage. That doesn't mean, he is a bad option though. I love what he brings to a table. He is that ''safe and reablible option who can pretty much be counted on a weekly basis to deliver a top 12. He won't have many bad races, either. His best days will be on the shorter flats and intermediate tracks. I think he will be a wildcard on the plate tracks and road courses.

*All stats are from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Sleepers & Dark Horses (Homestead)

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First off, I want to thank every single person who clicked on a link or checked this site for Fantasy Nascar content! Thank you! You guys are the reason this website has been so successful. I hope it has been as fun reading as it been writing them up.

It always give me mix feelings when we come to Homestead, the final race of the Nascar season. I get excited because of the championship being determined. However, it also make me sad to know that we won't any cars on track until Daytona, again. That how it goes though. We have a lot of great content coming up for this off-season, too. So it is not all bad.

Like everyone else, I am looking forward to see who wins the championship. Martin Truex Jr, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick or Brad Keselowski? Obviously, Truex Jr is the odds-on favorite. But personally, I hope it is a good battle and keep us guessing until the final laps. Kinda like last year race at Homestead.

Of course, that is not what article is about though. You are reading this to see how I like for Sleepers and Dark horses! So let's start digging into that!

Sleepers -

Ricky Stenhouse Jr - I like Ricky this week and I liked him most weeks this season. The 1.5 mile tracks are pretty underrated for this 17 car, too. He has a lot of good runs on this type of track in 2017. And Homestead is a place where I think he will definitely excel on. He is starting from the 6th position in the race and is someone who can stay in the top 15, I think. And it helps, he is coming off top 10 finish at Phoenix, as well. In final practice, I thought he was pretty damn decent overall.

Jamie Mac - Jamie Mac has had a very good season, but things have fallen off for him here in the playoffs. He has been a bit more inconsistent than earlier in the season, too. I think his inconsistency has really hurt his fantasy value overall. Which is why I decided to list him as a sleeper. While there's a few reasons to believe that he will struggle at Homestead, I cannot convince myself he won't be at least top 10 or top 12 good though. He has been most consistent on the 1.5 mile tracks throughout the 2017 season. I got to believe things will go his way at Homestead. He's starting from 13th position

Dark Horses -

Erik Jones - Erik Jones will make his final start for the 77 team this weekend, before going over to the 20 team in 2018. Jones has been close to wins several times in 2017 and last week was the most recent race. I personally don't think he will win the race in Homestead, I do think he will be a solid contender. He's fast enough to challenge for a top 10 run and maybe more than that. He's a really good dark horse pick to consider.

Ryan Blaney - Blaney has ran well at times this season and he has ran inconsistent at times this season. I think earlier in the season, he was still trying to find himself as a driver. He was more up and down because he's a young driver trying to figure things out. As the season progressed into the playoffs, he gained confidences and been one of the more reliable drivers in the series. He is good enough this weekend to have potential to contend for a low-high top 10 finish. I would say about 8th or so place is his ceiling though.

Have a question or want to chat?

Email - briggs_garry48@yahoo.com

Twitter - @Garryy12

2017 Fantasy Nascar RaceDay Thoughts (Homestead)

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RaceDay Thoughts -

Jeff Nathans (@JeffNathans18):

- I think Truex Jr and Kyle Busch will be the biggest threats to each others

- Kyle Larson loves Homestead and he may be the guy to watch out for when it comes down to the win

-Fall-off here is pretty noticeable. Having a good-long run car is a requirement or you aren't going anywhere but backwards

-Ricky Stenhouse Jr is a good sleeper to consider for the race. He is starting 5th and this a Ricky kind of track.

Matt Aleza (@MattAleza):

- Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson and Erik Jones are a few drivers to watch out for who looking to spoil the championship party

- Clint Bowyer is under the radar, but he is having a decent end to the season and could be a very good option

- We will never see Matt Kenseth, Dale Jr and Danica Patrick on the same track at the same time again. Hard to believe, isn't it?

- Pit road may just decide the championship. A couple years ago, Joey Logano eliminated himself from the championship hunt on pit road.

Yahoo lineups -

Jeff's lineup - 18,42,21,19

Matt's lineup - 11,42,21,13

Dark Horse -

Jeff's Pick - Erik Jones

Matt's Pick - Erik Jones

Winner -

Jeff's Pick - Kyle Busch

Matt's Pick - Martin Truex Jr 

2017 Fantasy Nascar Picks (Homestead)

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Fantasy Nascar Picks -

Yahoo -

A:

Start - Denny Hamlin

Bench - Kevin Harvick 

Reasons -My plan was to use Kevin Harvick, but there's no chance that I am giving away 10 bonus points for leading a lap. Hamlin will start from the pole and it is almost impossible to bench the pole sitter. I just cannot do it

B:

Start - Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson

Bench - Ryan Newman , Kurt Busch

Reasons -Not a lot of hard calls for me this week. Kyle Larson has been very fast all year long on these 1.5 mile tracks and Homestead is considered his best track. He should be very good once again on Sunday. Blaney has been consistent of late and offer more upside than guys like Newman and Busch.



C:

Start - Ty Dillon

Bench - Michael McDowell

Reasons - I don't really like either of these drivers, but Ty Dillon is the better option probably. I think best-case possible will be for a top 22 to top 25 finish here for either of these drivers.

Dark Horse - Erik Jones

Winner - Martin Truex Jr

Twitter - @MattAleza

2017 Fantasy Nascar Final Rankings (Homestead)

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Final Rankings -

1. Martin Truex Jr
2. Kyle Busch
3. Kyle Larson
4. Kevin Harvick
5. Denny Hamlin
6. Brad Keslowski
7. Matt Kenseth
8 Chase Elliott
9. Ryan Blaney
10. Jimmie Johnson
11. Kurt Busch
12. Joey Logano
13. Clint Bowyer
14. Erik Jones
15. Jamie Mac
16. Daniel Suarez
17. Ryan Newman
18. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
19. Dale Jr
20.  Kasey Kahne
21. Austin Dillon
22. Treovr Bayne
23. Aric Almirola
24. Paul Menard
25. Ty Dillon
26. Michael McDowell
27. AJ Dinger
28. Danica Patrick
29. Chris Buescher
30. Landon Cassill

Twitter - @MattAleza
 

2017 Fantasy Nascar Update (Homestead)

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Fantasy Nascar Update -

1. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr has been a stud on this type of track all season long and was the guy to beat for most of the Texas race, just few races ago. He will roll off 2nd and I consider him the odds on favorite to bring home the championship. He topped final practice on Saturday afternoon, too. There's not a lot to say about him, you probably haven't heard in recent weeks. He's simply the best driver in the series with the fastest car. Nothing has changed about that. Enjoy another strong points day with the 78 team.

2. Kyle Busch - Heading into this week, my thinking was that Kyle Busch would be Martin Truex Jr's best threat. So far this weekend, that exactly what it has looked like. I think the 18 car is right there with the 78 car. The biggest problem for me is that Truex Jr has made it a habit of winning on these 1.5 mile tracks this season. He has been nearly unstoppable. Can Kyle Busch find a way to win on Sunday? I think he's talent enough with more than speed to get it done. But it won't be easy. I think it will be down to the 78 and 18 at the end regardless though.

3. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin have been very fast this weekend and he is starting on the pole. He has been on a torn for most of 2nd half of the year. Last week, he had one of the best cars in the field. But his incident with Chase Elliott basically ruined his chances to race for a championship. Still, he has a fast car for this weekend's race. He's very good here at Homestead, some would say it is his best intermediate track. I wouldn't disagree with that, either. His numbers here are solid, no doubt. He is one of the drivers to keep an eye on, at least among the non-championship contenders.

4. Kevin Harvick - No disrespect to Harvick, but I don't think he will be able to stay with the 18 and 78. Two weeks ago at Texas, he won but I don't have that same feeling about him. It's just different to me this week. I think he can stay about 2-3 spots within striking distance, but that's not good enough. For him to have a really good shot at winning the championship, he will need something to go really well for him. I think Harvick is back-end top 5 or top-half of top 10 kind of driver for Sunday's race.

5. Kyle Larson -  Four weeks ago at Kansas, he had a fast car but he had mechanical issues. Two weeks ago, he was fast but had a tire go down, and last week he probably had the best car in the field. For the last four weeks, the final result has been the same: DNF. For Kyle Larson, it's no longer about speed. He has that now. For the last four weeks, it has been about having some good luck. Something, Larson has lacked lately. For most of the year, it was something that Larson was blessed with. Considered he has been having a career year in every single category. But if there was a track that I believe in him, then it's Homestead. He was leading very late two seasons ago, but a caution screwed that up. Then last year, he was dominant and put an ass whopping on the field. Until that final restart, when Jimmie Johnson did his thing. You get the point, right?

6. Brad Keselowski - I am not super high on Brad Keselowski here at Homestead. I wouldn't say that he no shot at winning the championship, but he is the clear underdog here. He has even admitted that they don't have the speed here on the 1.5 mile tracks. That have matched the theme so far this weekend, too. He is a driver that usually improves throughout the race. He's steady and don't make many mistakes. I think he and the No.2 team will have do that and some strategies to get off-schedule with everyone else. If the No.2 team end up winning the championship, I think a lot of that will have to do with from the elite calls from the pit box. This team know how to win a race or two from being different. His crew chief has made a living off it!  

7 Matt Kenseth - For the final time (for at least the time being), Matt Kenseth will prepare to get behind a wheel of cup car. What a amazing and pretty underappericated career, he has had. There's a lot of things you say about Matt's career in Nascar. But personally, I will always remember his constant bad luck with Joe Gibbs Raacing. It always seemed to happen at the worst possible times, too. So last week's win was pretty big for him.  If I were him, I would had said fuck it and not show up at Homestead. But that's just me though. Kenseth will be in the mix for a top 5 finish before end of the race on Sunday afternoon.

8. Ryan Blaney - Blaney has been a major question mark this season, but he is getting better as far as consistency goes. For this weekend, I say that he is a top 10 driver with that always high upside to be very dangerous. Other than those few early race in first half of the season, we haven't Blaney contend for wins or even top 5 very often. With that said, we have seen him become more predicable with his finishes than he was early in the season. I have him finishing between 7th-12th place. That has been the main finish range for him this season on the 1.5 mile tracks. More of the same for him in Sunday's race.

9. Chase Elliott - Elliott will start from outside of the top 15, but he will move up and likely challenge for a top 10 run. For the past month or so, Elliott has had several races where he was just laps away from grabbing his first career win. But each time, he failed to get the checkers flag. So he will have one more shot to win in the No.24 car, before he will switch over to the No.9 car in 2018. Can he get to victory lane on Sunday's afternoon? Personally, I haven't seen enough out of him. However, that doesn't mean he won't be good on Sunday. I think him having a solid run at Homestead is important. Ending on a high-note is something I think Elliott really wants after how these last few races ended for him. There's no stress now or high expectations. He can now, go out there and just race for a solid finish.

10. Jimmie Johnson - I said for most of the year, I didn't think that Jimmie Johnson would be racing for a championship. And how many points he was off from the cut-off was just telling how far the competition was ahead of the 48 car throughout this season. Johnson will set career-lows in many categories across the board, regardless how well he will finish. Johnson's biggest weakness this season probably has been on the 1.5 mile tracks. Last year, he wasn't really a factor for the win until very late in the race. This year, I think he will be just top 10 good. Like most of the season, top 10 good with pretty limited upside.

Just missed - 

Kurt Busch
Daniel Suarez
Clint Bowyer
Erik Jones
Jamie Mac
Ryan Newman

****All stats are from FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com and DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Early Rankings (Homestead)

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Fantasy Nascar Early Rankings -

1. Martin Truex Jr
2. Kyle Larson
3. Kyle Busch
4. Kevin Harvick
5. Chase Elliott
6. Denny Hamlin
7. Brad Keselowski
8. Matt Kenseth
9. Jimmie Johnson
10. Ryan Blaney
11. Jamie Mac
12. Joey Logano
13. Kurt Busch
14. Erik Jones
15. Ryan Newman
16. Clint Bowyer
17. Daniel Suarez
18. Kasey Kahne
19. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
20. Dale Jr
21. Trevor Bayne
22. Austin Dillon
23. Paul Menard
24. Aric Almirola
25. Ty Dillon
26. Michael McDowell
27. AJ Dinger
28. Chris Buescher
29. Danica Patrick
30. Landon Cassill

Twitter - @MattAleza
 

2017 Fantasy Nascar Sleepers & Dark Horses (Phoenix)

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Most people at 5 a.m in the morning are still sleeping on a Sunday morning, but I am not most people. I am making an early breakfast and prepping to start writing up this article. I am not the kind of person to sleep in on any day of the week. Even when my day job use to be 2nd shift. I would get home at nearly midnight and I would be up at 6 or 7 a.m the next morning. Which is why I prefer to write up my articles at this time in the morning. Is that weird? Probably. But I don't really care and that really bring me to my point of all of this. Never be afraid to be yourself. Never afraid to be different, my friends. And that's exactly the mindset I have when I make my fantasy picks. I always look for that ''difference maker'' pick who can potentially set me apart. That usually where these sleepers and dark horses come into play. Am I saying to go out and make bunch of homer picks? Nope, but if the potential is there, then you take that shot.

Sleepers -

Aric Almirola - I have always has been a big supporter of Aric and I was very happy to hear that he got a quality ride for next season. It will be interesting to see what he can do with the No.10 ride in 2018. As for this weekend, I probably like him more than most do. He is starting from 22nd and has 9 Top 20 finishes in 10 career starts at Phoenix. He is the model of consistency at this track. He just lack the upside, that we are always craving and looking for. I say that he can finish in the top 20 again in today's race, but I think that's it. He's finished 18th or better at every race on Phoenix, Martinsville and Richmond this season. In his last four races this season, he has finishes of 18th or better in all four races, dating back to Talladega.

Ty Dillon - I know a lot of people will just look at Ty Dillon and say, ''meh he's just another driver out there.'' And yeah, he is just another driver out there for the most part. But he is someone who can make a very good value pick for today's race. In 7 of his last 10 races this season, Ty Dillon has finishes of 22nd or better. While finishing 15th and 16th in his last two races at Phoenix. Dillon finished 16th earlier this season at this track. The 13 team has a history of finishing well in recent seasons with their former driver, Casey Mears, too. Obviously, they will have some work to do today to get finish like that. However, I wouldn't count a possible top 20 finish out. I say a low-end twenty to high teen-like finish is very likely. So 17th-22nd is the likely area that I am thinking of for him.

Other Sleepers - Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Austin Dillon

Dark Horses -

Ryan Blaney - Blaney is starting on the pole for today's race and he have a shot at possibly winning, too. I would say it's likely he end actually winning the race, but he should be able to stay around for awhile. If Blaney and the 21 team can keep up with the track position, then it's a good possibility that he can contend for at least a top 10 finish. Personally, I think he can finish in the top 5, but he will need to have some things go into his favor though. That's just me being realistic. In three career starts at this track, he has two top 10 finishes. Earlier this season, he was very strong and was in contention for a top 5 finish. But he had an issue late in the race and finished 23rd. I think we all know what kind of potential he has. Now, it is all about putting that ponetial together for a full-race on a consistent basis.

Chase Elliott - Elliott will need to win today in order to advance to Homestead. I think that will be a very tall order for him to accomplish, but it is not the craziest thing to happen. Still, I think he will need a lot to go right today. He is starting from inside the top 5 with a pretty damn good car though. His numbers at Phoenix are quite good, too. In three career starts, Elliott has never finished worse than 12th. However, his finishes has gotten worse in each start. He finished 8th in his debut at this track, 9th in last fall race and 12th in this past spring race. He did lead a lot of laps this past spring though. He led 106 laps on his way to a disappointing 12th place finish. He also led 123 laps at Martinsville, a couple weeks ago, for what little that means.

Other Dark horses - Jamie Mac, Kurt Busch, Daniel Suarez and Erik Jones

****All stats are from DriverAverages.com

Have a question or would like to chat?

Email - briggs_garry48@yahoo.com

Twitter - @Garryy12

2017 Fantasy Nascar RaceDay Thoughts (PIR)

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RaceDay Thoughts -

Garry Briggs (@Garryy12):

-Track position will be key

- I think Kyle Larson get back on track and have a really strong race today

-Hamlin will do enough to advance to the next round as the last driver to get in

- People are sleeping on Truex Jr this weekend and I love it! Rookie mistake right there


Jeff Nathans (@JeffNathans18):

- Gibbs cars will be strong again in today's race.

- I think Blaney will hang up front long as he can, before fading to the top 10

- I wonder if Kevin Harvick will return to his winning ways at Phoenix? He just might

-I am interested in how Chase Elliott does today! He is one of those must-win drivers and something tells me that he might be in a gambling mood. It might make or break his day, too

Yahoo lineups -

Garry's lineup - 18,1,21,19

Jeff's lineup - 4,21,24,77

Dark horse -

Garry's Pick - Blaney

Jeff's Pick - Blaney

Winner -

Garry's Pick - Kyle Busch

Jeff's Pick - Kevin Harvick

2017 Fantasy Nascar Picks (Phoenix)

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Fantasy Nascar Picks -

A:

Start - Kevin Harvick

Bench - Kyle Busch

Reasons -Tough decision to make this week, but I am going with Harvick as my starter. He is the safe bet and looks good for a top 5 run in the race. That's exactly what I am looking for. I will take it.

Busch, Truex Jr and Johnson are also all very good options that will not be far behind Kevin Harvick. I would take those drivers in that order, too.

B:

Ryan Blaney, Jamie Mac, Chase Elliott, Kurt Busch

Reasons -I don't have any real regrets this week in this grouping tier. Blaney is starting on the pole and should be able to stay in the top 10. Jamie Mac should be able to move up and possibly challenge for a top 10 run.

Elliott and Larson are the best options again this week, but I would save both of them for Homestead. Kurt Busch and Clint Bowyer both should have decent runs on Sunday, too. I would prefer Kurt among those two options. I would think both of those guys run just outside of that top 10 area. Maybe a little better, if they play the track position strategies! 

C:

Start - Daniel Suarez

Bench - Ty Dillon

Reasons -All week I had planned to use Daniel and that's set in stone now. The 19 car is capable of finishing in the top 10 and running there on Sunday. He is miles better than a guy such as Ty Dillon. I think Dillon can score a finish around 20th or so.

Dark Horse - Ryan Blaney

Winner - Kevin Harvick

Twitter - @MattAleza

2017 Fantasy Nascar Update (PIR)

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Fantasy Nascar Update -

1. Kevin Harvick - I am not saying that Kevin is on the level that he has been in recent years at Phoenix, but it is hard to pick against him right now though. He is at his best track and he is coming off a win at Texas. His consistency at Phoenix is unmatched by any other driver recently. Also, his momentum is something that I really love. His speed this weekend isn't bad either, probably right where it need to be for him to be a contender.

2. Martin Truex Jr - You cannot bet against Truex Jr, regardless of the track we are headed to. He's that damn good and he has been in the nix this weekend. Obviously not quite as good as those intermediate tracks, but he's shown top 5 speed since unloading at Phoenix. You can pretty much expect him to be a threat to win once again. There isn't a lot to say about the 78 team. They are consistent front runners and that won't change on Sunday afternoon.

3. Kyle Busch - Kyle has already advanced to the championship race at Homstead, but he will try to win again this weekend though. He's really good here at Phoenix and is a former winner at this track. He has solid speed (as usual) and should be able to mix it up for another possible win on Sunday afternoon. I wouldn't say that he has the car to beat (I think the top 4 or 5 are under a blanket), but you be sure he will be in the conversation. Track position will be the ultimate deciding factor.

4. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is having an incredible second half of the season (much like the past couple seasons) and can punch his ticket to Homestead with a really strong finish on Sunday afternoon. He more than likely need to win to advance though. Hamlin has a fast car this weekend once again. He is starting from 2nd (again - he started 2nd last week too) and could possibly lead some laps early on. He was ranked 3rd in the best-ten lap average during final practice on Saturday afternoon.

5. Ryan Blaney - Blaney is starting on the pole, but I don't really trust him to stay up there in the top 2 or 3 though. He's a good driver, no doubt, but I don't think he has the speed to stay up there on the long run. It may be a bit much for me ranking him in 5th, too. But I think he will hover from about 5th-9th area for much of this race. A lot like last weekend's race. He stood his ground for long as he could, before he faded to just outside of the top 5. I am expecting something similar to happen to him.

6. Chase Elliott - Elliott has shown speed in recent weeks and showing it once again, but I don't think he has enough to win though. He will need to win to advance to the next round, but it will be tough for it to happen. Elliott is probably top 10 good this weekend, but nothing beyond that 6th-9th range. I wouldn't call this a great track for Elliott, either. He's just good at Phoenix. I also have a fear that he will gamble to try to win at some point. I think that could hurt him in the end, too. But what other choice does he have?

7. Jimmie Johnson -  I been tough on Johnson all season long, but it has been for good reason. Johnson has been pretty much average for much of the season. His top 5 total is big reason for it, too. He won't win at Phoenix (based on what I have seen), but he may have the most upside of the drivers in bottom half of my rankings. Phoenix use to be a great track for him. He was nearly unstoppable before the repave, but he haven't been the same since. He is getting closer to returning to his old self, but still not what he was though. Like most of the playoffs, he will be top 10 good and that's about it. I will say that he has enough upside to sneak into the top 5, if things play out correctly for him.

8. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth announced that he will not be returning to Cup full-time next season and that wasn't shocking to me. Like former teammate Greg Biffle, he rather be out of the sport than run competitively. Simply put, there isn't a ride out there where he would be a championship contender. He will be a good top 10 contender with obvious upside to challenge for a possible top 5 finish. For whatever reason, I don't have a good feeling about that happening. I think the usual top 10 is where he will spend most of his day. Phoenix haven't been a memorable place for him recently. Two years ago, he wasn't able to race because he was supsended. And last year, he was contending for a championship and was wrecked with less than 10 to go. He was leading at that moment, too. Brutal couple years, wouldn't you say?

9. Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson has three straight bad finishes in a row, even though he had the car to beat early at Texas last week. He just never seemed to himself late in the race and then of course he wrecked it eventually. It has been a tough ending for Larson here in 2017 and things haven't exactly been great at Phoenix for him. Other than his 2nd place earlier this season, he has been a pretty average driver at this track. I would call it one of his worst tracks. He been good here, just not good enough for extended period of time during races. I would set his likely running range in the top 10 or top 12. As always, Larson has that phenomenal ceiling to take the checkers flag. But I say that more likely at Homestead!

10. Brad Keselowski - Much like most of the season, I am not really on board with Keselowski overall. He will be good in the race and more than likely move up and challenge for a solid finish. But he won't be able to challenge for the win or even a top 5 finish. At least, not without some track position which isn't crazy. When you think about it, this is Keselowski best shot of the three races in this round to win. Phoenix is a track position game, you need a smart man on top of the pit box. Paul Wolfe might whip something up and shock everyone. Who knows though. As of right now, he is in the latter part of the top 10 entering the race.


Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Final Rankings (PIR)

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Fantasy Nascar Final Rankings -

1. Martin Truex Jr
2. Kevin Harvick
3. Kyle Busch
4. Denny Hamlin
5. Matt Kenseth
6. Chase Elliott
7. Ryan Blaney
8. Jimmie Johnson
9. Kyle Larson
10. Brad Keselowski
11. Joey Logano
12. Jamie Mac
13. Clint Bowyer
14. Kurt Busch
15. Erik Jones
16. Daniel Suarez
17. Ryan Newman
18. Kasey Kahne
19. Dale Jr
20. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
21. Austin Dillon
22. Trevor Bayne
23. Paul Menard
24. Aric Almirola
25. AJ Dinger
26. Ty Dillon
27. Danica Patrick
28. Michael McDowell
29. Chris Buescher
30. Landon Cassill

Twitter - @MattAleza

2017 Fantasy Nascar Early Rankings (Phoenix)

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Early rankings -

1. Martin Truex Jr
2. Kyle Busch
3. Kevin Harvick
4. Denny Hamlin
5. Matt Kenseth
6. Kyle Larson
7. Brad Keselowski
8. Chase Elliott
9. Jimmie Johnson
10. Kurt Busch
11. Clint Bowyer
12. Ryan Blaney
13. Joey Logano
14. Ryan Newman
15. Jamie Mac
16. Kasey Kahne
17. Erik Jones
18. Daniel Suarez
19. Dale Jr
20. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
21. Austin Dillon
22. Paul Menard
23. Trevor Bayne
24. Aric Almirola
25. AJ Dinger
26. Ty Dillon
27. Michael McDowell
28. Danica Patrick
29. Chris Buescher
30. Landon Cassill

Twitter - @MattAleza

2017 Fantasy Nascar Sleepers & Dark Horses (Texas)

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It has been quite awhile since I have had entire weekend off, in fact first time since the first weekend of September. So why not whip up an early morning post? Sounds like heck of an idea to me! Also, I cannot sleep worth shit with my early morning mindset.

Anyways, there's only three races left for the 2017 season and I am very excited to see how it play out. Last weekend triggered a chain of events that could have a major impact over the next two weeks. As far as sleepers and dark horses, it should be pretty cut and dry. At least it SHOULD be, because we saw how things played out at Kansas. For the most part, we know the dark horse who can challenge for the win. And we do know the potential sleepers who can be nice value plays. But it doesn't mean that things will go according to plan. At end of the day, you just have to take a leap and hope there's no rocks at the bottom.

Let's get rolling!

Sleepers -

Ricky Stenhouse Jr - The biggest strength (aside from the plate tracks) has been the intermediate tracks for Ricky and the 17 team in 2017. He was more consistent on this type of track in the regular season, but it doesn't change anything. He's finished 6 of 9 races on the 1.5 mile tracks in 15th or better. And every time that he has finished outside of that top 15, it was because he had issues during the race with something. He is showing decent speed on the charts this weekend, too. Top 20 in both sessions. Not really surprising since this has been a very good track for Ricky. In 4 of his last 5 starts here, he has finishes between 14th-16th. Very consistent. There's a pretty good chance, he will likely finish in that range once again.

AJ Dinger - AJ Dinger was a bitter disappointment last week at one of his best tracks, but he has a chance to rebound and cotend for a top 20 finish, in my opinion. Texas has been a very consistent track for him. In his last 6 races at this track, Dinger has 6 straight finishes of 22nd or better. But no finishes better than 18th. But, you get the point that I am driving. He is consistent in the low 20s-high teens. These are the type of tracks we are looking to employ Dinger on. This weekend, he have looked better than average for intermediate track. He was 17th and 20th in terms of single fastest lap on Saturday afternoon. He will start from inside the top 20 as well. He didn't post any 10-lap averages, however that is a little concerning. Still, I would take a shot with him, if you are looking for a under the radar option with ''potentially'' swipe a top 20.

Also, I like Aric Almirola as a possible decent sleeper. I feel better about him at a place like last week (at Martinsville) and next week at Phoenix though. Still, he could deliver a solid finish in the low-20s. But I think top 20 would be pushing it for that 43 car though.

Dark Horses -

Erik Jones - Erik Jones has great potential for today's race. He has been very fast this weekend and just may have one of the cars to beat. He was 2nd in best-ten lap averages on Saturday and looked very good on the long runs. He won the NXS race on Saturday night and now look poised to go back-to-back on Sunday afternoon. We saw him display top 5 speed throughout the season, but it went away the past couple weeks. It is back now and he could take advantage of that in today's race.

Daniel Suarez - Another rookie who is having a unbelievable season is Daniel Suarez! The rookie is coming in his own as the season has progressed and is showing everyone why he belongs here. Early in the season, he was struggling and then lucking into good finishes. Now, he is running well and finishing even better. In 7 of his last 8 races, he has finished 15th or better. Including 4 top 8 finishes in that span. From Richmond to Charottle, he had 4 in 5 races. None since though. However, we have raced at Talladega, Kansas (crazy race) and Martinsville during that span. It's tough to have a lot of positive results for a young driver with those races. Still, he had a pair of 15th place finishes in 2 of those 3 races. Daniel is showing a bunch of speed of this weekend, too. He's right there with fellow rookie Erik Jones. This kid may have something for them when we go green!

Ryan Blaney - Blaney has been a very challenging driver to figure out, but he has been very consistent on the 1.5 mile tracks throughout the 2017 season. In 9 races this season, he's posted 6 top 12 finishes. Including 3 top 11 finishes during the chase. Earlier this season, he finished 12th place at Texas back in April. He was very strong and led 148 laps. He faded late, after winning the first two stages of the race. That was the race, where a lot of were like, ''This kid can win a race this season.'' I don't think he will be nearly as strong, but his consistency on this type of track alone will make him a solid bet. I think he has top 10 kind of speed with some obvious upside. He was 3rd in terms of single-fastest lap speed and 12th in terms of best-ten lap average during final practice. At a place like Texas, I think looking at who near top of the board is little more important. The lap times don't fall off at a significant rate, so posting a fast-single lap is a bit more relevant than at a place such as Charlotte or Atlanta. It doesn't mean you have a super fast car or lock to be strong on the long runs, but it is something you can look at for convincing yourself purposes. Blaney has been near the top since unloading.

Have a question or want to chat?

Email - briggs_garry48@yahoo.com

Twitter - @Garryy12

2017 Fantasy Nascar RaceDay Thoughts (Texas)

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RaceDay Thoughts -

Jeff Nathans (@JeffNathans18):

- The SHR cars have some speed in them

- The Gibbs bunch are fast again. Shocker, right?

- Rookies Erik Jones and Daniel Suarez can play spoiler

- Kurt Busch will be strong to start, but he will fade as the race goes on

Matt Aleza (@MattAleza):

- Kyle Larson was fast all day Saturday and should challenge for the win

-Denny Hamlin has been crazy consistent since July with 10 Top 5 finishes. He can add another one today.

- Erik Jones has a legit shot to win

- AJ Dinger might be someone to watch as a possible sneaky sleeper. Good record here and looked good on the charts.

Yahoo lineups -

Jeff's lineup - 78,42,41,77

Matt's lineup - 18,42,21,77

Dark Horse -

Jeff's Pick - Erik Jones

Matt's Pick - Erik Jones

Winner -

Jeff's Pick - Martin Truex Jr

Matt's Pick - Martin Truex Jr

2017 Fantasy Nascar Update (Texas)

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Fantasy Nascar Update -

1. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr haven't looked dominated or starting on the front row, however he is the man on the 1.5 mile tracks. Sure, he is starting from 7th but I don't think it will matter. He will be in the mix all race long and that usually leads to very good things for Truex Jr. Especially on the 1.5 mile tracks, where he has done some serious damage. In fact, he has led the most laps on this type of track this season and has the most wins on this type of track. He has won the past 4 races on the 1.5 mile intermediate tracks and 6 of 9 on the season overall. Don't doubt the numbers and trust in Martin's consistency!

2. Kyle Busch - Rowdy has been consistency one of the fastest drivers on the track throughout the season and he is locked into the next round. What should we expect from Rowdy? I think we should expect a lot of things and a lot of good things, too. He is a stud at Texas and usually can be counted to lead laps. He has speed this weekend. Top 5 speed and that's a very good sign for Kyle Busch. When he unloads fast, it usually foreshadows the #18 car being a contender. He may not always win, but he will be in the mix. At Texas, he is a tough guy to beat. And his record on the 1.5 mile tracks this season says he is a top 5 at least.

3. Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson has had a couple of rough weeks, but he's fast again this weekend and looks like he can challenge for the win. He didn't qualify as well as I would had liked, but he has been very strong on the 1.5 mile tracks. He is a machine on this type of track in 2017 and should be a very safe bet to go with. I love Kyle Larson for this weekend. He has been at top of the charts since unloading, I think that will be the case on Sunday as well.

4. Kevin Harvick - Harvick haven't won on an intermediate track this season with the #4 team, but he has a great track history at Texas with SHR. And the SHR Fords look very good this weekend and his teammate is sitting on the pole for Sunday's race. Another thing to like about Kevin Harvick? He has finishes of 3rd, 3rd and 8th in his last three races on this type of track. Also, he has led at least 37 laps in each of those races. In 7 of 9 races on the 1.5 mile tracks this season, Harvick has led at least 10 laps. While 6 of those 9 races, he's led 37 or more laps. Harvick has the numbers and the speed to be a top fantasy pick for Sunday's afternoon race!

5. Denny Hamlin - Denny Hamlin is not a very popular man in the world of Nascar right now, after the events that happened at Martinsville. I am not gonna say what's my take is on it because it is not gonna be a very popular one. However, I think last week will be on his mind still though. Regardless, I don't think it will matter much in the end. He has a good enough car to challenge for the win on Sunday and he will start alongside of polesitter Kurt Busch. Throughout the second half of the season, Hamlin has been one of the best drivers in the series. In his last 16 races this season, he has compiled 10 Top 5 finishes. With only 4 finishes of worse than 7th(!) place! It also doesn't hurt that he has a pretty good track record at Texas Motor Speedway!

6. Chase Elliott - Chase Elliott was inconsistent through part of the 2017 season and still has a little inconsistency to him in the playoffs. But he is showing flashes of his true potential right now. He is fast week in and week out! The last few weeks, he has been very close to getting to victory lane. All year long, I have been looking for Elliott to show me something. Show me that he is THAT guy who can go up front and challenge for the win. For the first 25 or 30 races, I didn't see it. The past few races? He has stepped up. And if he going to win one of these next three races, I think it will be on Sunday afternoon at Texas. I think this is his best shot at going to victory lane. He's fast, but starting in the back.

7. Kurt Busch - Kurt Busch has displayed some speed this weekend, but I am not convinced that he will be able to stay up front and challenge for the win. I would be honestly very shocked if that happened. I expect to see something similar to what happened to teammate Kevin Harvick at Texas in April. Started up front, but fade late in the first run and then stay in the 6th-10th place range. That is the most likely thing to happen to Kurt Busch on Sunday afternoon. Still, he is one of the better fantasy options in leagues such as Yahoo Fantasy Racing. In leagues that depend on position differential? Not so much.

8. Matt Kenseth - I cannot sit here and tell you that I love Matt Kenseth, but I certianly don't hate him, either. This season, Kenseth haven't gone to victory lane. He has been close, but he has gone south since the playoffs started. That usually a bad sign as the year comes to a close. No momentum means less chance that he will challenge for a top 5 finish or a win. In 7 races during the playoffs, he has just one finish better than 9th place. Even though 3 of the last four races has ended in 9th-14th. Still, that's not very good overall. Kenseth is a big time driver and you expect top 5 finishes from him. In most formats, you probably cannot afford to use him otherwise. I think he will be top 10 good, at least based on what I have seen.

9. Jimmie Johnson - I haven't been high on Jimmie Johnson for most of the year. Why should I start now? He will be good like usual, but that's it. Nothing over the top and most likely finish somewhere in the top 10. He's a 7-time winner at this track, but he has just 2 Top 5 finishes in his LAST 25 RACES. Both of those top 5 finishes came at Dover. On the 1.5 mile tracks, he doesn't have a finish better than 7th place since winning here at Texas back in April. And he wasn't a top 5 car for that event, either. They got him really good late in the race. He led 18 laps on his way to victory lane. On the season, Johnson only has 2 top 10 finishes on the 1.5 mile tracks. Both of them has been in the playoffs though. I think he will be a top 10 driver in the race!

10. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski like usually haven't stood out that much this weekend. It has been a common theme to see Keselowski just being decent on the 1.5 mile intermediate tracks this season. That is the same sense I have gotten from him on Saturday. You know he will be good, but you also know that he has a limited ceiling, too. Consistency and finishing out races well is what really has carried him this far in the season. For whatever reason, Penske haven't ever recovered from that strong start that suddenly disappeared. Since finishing 2nd at Kansas, he has only one finish better than 15th on the 1.5 mile tracks. There's some bad luck involved, but you get my point.

Just Missed

Erik Jones

Ryan Blaney

Daniel Suarez

Joey Logano

Jamie Mac

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

 

2017 Fantasy Nascar Final Rankings (Texas)

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Final Rankings -

1. Martin Truex Jr
2. Kyle Busch
3. Kyle Larson
4. Denny Hamlin
5. Kevin Harvick
6. Kurt Busch
7. Jimmie Johnson
8. Chase Elliott
9. Matt Kenseth
10. Erik Jones
11. Brad Keselowski
12. Ryan Blaney
13. Daniel Suarez
14. Clint Bowyer
15. Joey Logano
16. Jamie Mac
17. Kasey Kahne
18. Ryan Newman
19. Dale Jr
20. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
21. Austin Dillon
22. Trevor Bayne
23. AJ Dinger
24. Aric Almirola
25. Ty Dillon
26. Michael McDowell
27. Paul Menard
28. Danica Patrick
29. Chris Buescher
30. Landon Cassill

Twitter - @MattAleza 

2017 Fantasy Nascar Picks (Texas)

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Fantasy Nascar Picks -

Yahoo -

A:

Start - Kyle Busch

Bench - Martin Truex Jr

Reasons - I don't really have a prefer driver here, but I am going with Kyle Busch because I have more starts with him. That is really the only reason I am going with him over Truex Jr. Otherwise, I think they are both pretty close.

B:

Start - Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney

Bench - Chase Elliott, Clint Bowyer

Reasons -I wanted to go with Larson and Elliott, but things worked out okay overall though. I can save my Elliott start from Homestead now. And use Blaney here instead. I think Elliott has a better car, but I won't risk it with him starting so deep in the field.

Kurt Busch is the best start-save option in the field for Sunday's race. I also like Ricky Stenhouse Jr as a deep sleeper, too. I also think Jamie Mac will better than he has shown so far this weekend.

C:

Start - Erik Jones

Bench - Ty Dillon

Reasons - Heading into the playoffs, I thought that Texas was the place for Erik Jones to make a statement. I circled this place as a possible start for Jones. He haven't disappointed yet. He's very fast and could easily challenge for the win, too.

Daniel Saurez is a nice substitute option to go with, if Jones is not avliable for you.

Dark Horse -Erik Jones

Winner - Martin Truex Jr

Twitter - @MattAleza

2017 Fantasy Nascar Early Rankings (Texas)

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Early Rankings -

1. Martin Truex Jr
2. Kyle Busch
3. Kyle Larson
4. Kevin Harvick
5. Denny Hamlin
6. Matt Kenseth
7. Chase Elliott
8. Jimmie Johnson
9. Brad Keselowski
10. Ryan Blaney
11. Jamie Mac
12. Joey Logano
13. Clint Bowyer
14. Kurt Busch
15. Ryan Newman
16. Erik Jones
17. Daniel Suarez
18. Kasey Kahne
19. Dale Jr
20. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
21. Austin Dillon
22. Trevor Bayne
23. Paul Menard
24. Aric Almirola
25. Ty Dillon
26. Michael McDowell
27. AJ Dinger
28. Danica Patrick
29. Chris Buescher
30. Landon Cassill

Twitter - @MattAleza