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Fantasy Nascar Update -
1. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr has been a stud on this type of track all season long and was the guy to beat for most of the Texas race, just few races ago. He will roll off 2nd and I consider him the odds on favorite to bring home the championship. He topped final practice on Saturday afternoon, too. There's not a lot to say about him, you probably haven't heard in recent weeks. He's simply the best driver in the series with the fastest car. Nothing has changed about that. Enjoy another strong points day with the 78 team.
2. Kyle Busch - Heading into this week, my thinking was that Kyle Busch would be Martin Truex Jr's best threat. So far this weekend, that exactly what it has looked like. I think the 18 car is right there with the 78 car. The biggest problem for me is that Truex Jr has made it a habit of winning on these 1.5 mile tracks this season. He has been nearly unstoppable. Can Kyle Busch find a way to win on Sunday? I think he's talent enough with more than speed to get it done. But it won't be easy. I think it will be down to the 78 and 18 at the end regardless though.
3. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin have been very fast this weekend and he is starting on the pole. He has been on a torn for most of 2nd half of the year. Last week, he had one of the best cars in the field. But his incident with Chase Elliott basically ruined his chances to race for a championship. Still, he has a fast car for this weekend's race. He's very good here at Homestead, some would say it is his best intermediate track. I wouldn't disagree with that, either. His numbers here are solid, no doubt. He is one of the drivers to keep an eye on, at least among the non-championship contenders.
4. Kevin Harvick - No disrespect to Harvick, but I don't think he will be able to stay with the 18 and 78. Two weeks ago at Texas, he won but I don't have that same feeling about him. It's just different to me this week. I think he can stay about 2-3 spots within striking distance, but that's not good enough. For him to have a really good shot at winning the championship, he will need something to go really well for him. I think Harvick is back-end top 5 or top-half of top 10 kind of driver for Sunday's race.
5. Kyle Larson - Four weeks ago at Kansas, he had a fast car but he had mechanical issues. Two weeks ago, he was fast but had a tire go down, and last week he probably had the best car in the field. For the last four weeks, the final result has been the same: DNF. For Kyle Larson, it's no longer about speed. He has that now. For the last four weeks, it has been about having some good luck. Something, Larson has lacked lately. For most of the year, it was something that Larson was blessed with. Considered he has been having a career year in every single category. But if there was a track that I believe in him, then it's Homestead. He was leading very late two seasons ago, but a caution screwed that up. Then last year, he was dominant and put an ass whopping on the field. Until that final restart, when Jimmie Johnson did his thing. You get the point, right?
6. Brad Keselowski - I am not super high on Brad Keselowski here at Homestead. I wouldn't say that he no shot at winning the championship, but he is the clear underdog here. He has even admitted that they don't have the speed here on the 1.5 mile tracks. That have matched the theme so far this weekend, too. He is a driver that usually improves throughout the race. He's steady and don't make many mistakes. I think he and the No.2 team will have do that and some strategies to get off-schedule with everyone else. If the No.2 team end up winning the championship, I think a lot of that will have to do with from the elite calls from the pit box. This team know how to win a race or two from being different. His crew chief has made a living off it!
7 Matt Kenseth - For the final time (for at least the time being), Matt Kenseth will prepare to get behind a wheel of cup car. What a amazing and pretty underappericated career, he has had. There's a lot of things you say about Matt's career in Nascar. But personally, I will always remember his constant bad luck with Joe Gibbs Raacing. It always seemed to happen at the worst possible times, too. So last week's win was pretty big for him. If I were him, I would had said fuck it and not show up at Homestead. But that's just me though. Kenseth will be in the mix for a top 5 finish before end of the race on Sunday afternoon.
8. Ryan Blaney - Blaney has been a major question mark this season, but he is getting better as far as consistency goes. For this weekend, I say that he is a top 10 driver with that always high upside to be very dangerous. Other than those few early race in first half of the season, we haven't Blaney contend for wins or even top 5 very often. With that said, we have seen him become more predicable with his finishes than he was early in the season. I have him finishing between 7th-12th place. That has been the main finish range for him this season on the 1.5 mile tracks. More of the same for him in Sunday's race.
9. Chase Elliott - Elliott will start from outside of the top 15, but he will move up and likely challenge for a top 10 run. For the past month or so, Elliott has had several races where he was just laps away from grabbing his first career win. But each time, he failed to get the checkers flag. So he will have one more shot to win in the No.24 car, before he will switch over to the No.9 car in 2018. Can he get to victory lane on Sunday's afternoon? Personally, I haven't seen enough out of him. However, that doesn't mean he won't be good on Sunday. I think him having a solid run at Homestead is important. Ending on a high-note is something I think Elliott really wants after how these last few races ended for him. There's no stress now or high expectations. He can now, go out there and just race for a solid finish.
10. Jimmie Johnson - I said for most of the year, I didn't think that Jimmie Johnson would be racing for a championship. And how many points he was off from the cut-off was just telling how far the competition was ahead of the 48 car throughout this season. Johnson will set career-lows in many categories across the board, regardless how well he will finish. Johnson's biggest weakness this season probably has been on the 1.5 mile tracks. Last year, he wasn't really a factor for the win until very late in the race. This year, I think he will be just top 10 good. Like most of the season, top 10 good with pretty limited upside.
Just missed -
Kurt Busch
Daniel Suarez
Clint Bowyer
Erik Jones
Jamie Mac
Ryan Newman
****All stats are from FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com and DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Fantasy Nascar Update -
1. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr has been a stud on this type of track all season long and was the guy to beat for most of the Texas race, just few races ago. He will roll off 2nd and I consider him the odds on favorite to bring home the championship. He topped final practice on Saturday afternoon, too. There's not a lot to say about him, you probably haven't heard in recent weeks. He's simply the best driver in the series with the fastest car. Nothing has changed about that. Enjoy another strong points day with the 78 team.
2. Kyle Busch - Heading into this week, my thinking was that Kyle Busch would be Martin Truex Jr's best threat. So far this weekend, that exactly what it has looked like. I think the 18 car is right there with the 78 car. The biggest problem for me is that Truex Jr has made it a habit of winning on these 1.5 mile tracks this season. He has been nearly unstoppable. Can Kyle Busch find a way to win on Sunday? I think he's talent enough with more than speed to get it done. But it won't be easy. I think it will be down to the 78 and 18 at the end regardless though.
3. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin have been very fast this weekend and he is starting on the pole. He has been on a torn for most of 2nd half of the year. Last week, he had one of the best cars in the field. But his incident with Chase Elliott basically ruined his chances to race for a championship. Still, he has a fast car for this weekend's race. He's very good here at Homestead, some would say it is his best intermediate track. I wouldn't disagree with that, either. His numbers here are solid, no doubt. He is one of the drivers to keep an eye on, at least among the non-championship contenders.
4. Kevin Harvick - No disrespect to Harvick, but I don't think he will be able to stay with the 18 and 78. Two weeks ago at Texas, he won but I don't have that same feeling about him. It's just different to me this week. I think he can stay about 2-3 spots within striking distance, but that's not good enough. For him to have a really good shot at winning the championship, he will need something to go really well for him. I think Harvick is back-end top 5 or top-half of top 10 kind of driver for Sunday's race.
5. Kyle Larson - Four weeks ago at Kansas, he had a fast car but he had mechanical issues. Two weeks ago, he was fast but had a tire go down, and last week he probably had the best car in the field. For the last four weeks, the final result has been the same: DNF. For Kyle Larson, it's no longer about speed. He has that now. For the last four weeks, it has been about having some good luck. Something, Larson has lacked lately. For most of the year, it was something that Larson was blessed with. Considered he has been having a career year in every single category. But if there was a track that I believe in him, then it's Homestead. He was leading very late two seasons ago, but a caution screwed that up. Then last year, he was dominant and put an ass whopping on the field. Until that final restart, when Jimmie Johnson did his thing. You get the point, right?
6. Brad Keselowski - I am not super high on Brad Keselowski here at Homestead. I wouldn't say that he no shot at winning the championship, but he is the clear underdog here. He has even admitted that they don't have the speed here on the 1.5 mile tracks. That have matched the theme so far this weekend, too. He is a driver that usually improves throughout the race. He's steady and don't make many mistakes. I think he and the No.2 team will have do that and some strategies to get off-schedule with everyone else. If the No.2 team end up winning the championship, I think a lot of that will have to do with from the elite calls from the pit box. This team know how to win a race or two from being different. His crew chief has made a living off it!
7 Matt Kenseth - For the final time (for at least the time being), Matt Kenseth will prepare to get behind a wheel of cup car. What a amazing and pretty underappericated career, he has had. There's a lot of things you say about Matt's career in Nascar. But personally, I will always remember his constant bad luck with Joe Gibbs Raacing. It always seemed to happen at the worst possible times, too. So last week's win was pretty big for him. If I were him, I would had said fuck it and not show up at Homestead. But that's just me though. Kenseth will be in the mix for a top 5 finish before end of the race on Sunday afternoon.
8. Ryan Blaney - Blaney has been a major question mark this season, but he is getting better as far as consistency goes. For this weekend, I say that he is a top 10 driver with that always high upside to be very dangerous. Other than those few early race in first half of the season, we haven't Blaney contend for wins or even top 5 very often. With that said, we have seen him become more predicable with his finishes than he was early in the season. I have him finishing between 7th-12th place. That has been the main finish range for him this season on the 1.5 mile tracks. More of the same for him in Sunday's race.
9. Chase Elliott - Elliott will start from outside of the top 15, but he will move up and likely challenge for a top 10 run. For the past month or so, Elliott has had several races where he was just laps away from grabbing his first career win. But each time, he failed to get the checkers flag. So he will have one more shot to win in the No.24 car, before he will switch over to the No.9 car in 2018. Can he get to victory lane on Sunday's afternoon? Personally, I haven't seen enough out of him. However, that doesn't mean he won't be good on Sunday. I think him having a solid run at Homestead is important. Ending on a high-note is something I think Elliott really wants after how these last few races ended for him. There's no stress now or high expectations. He can now, go out there and just race for a solid finish.
10. Jimmie Johnson - I said for most of the year, I didn't think that Jimmie Johnson would be racing for a championship. And how many points he was off from the cut-off was just telling how far the competition was ahead of the 48 car throughout this season. Johnson will set career-lows in many categories across the board, regardless how well he will finish. Johnson's biggest weakness this season probably has been on the 1.5 mile tracks. Last year, he wasn't really a factor for the win until very late in the race. This year, I think he will be just top 10 good. Like most of the season, top 10 good with pretty limited upside.
Just missed -
Kurt Busch
Daniel Suarez
Clint Bowyer
Erik Jones
Jamie Mac
Ryan Newman
****All stats are from FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com and DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
