Welcome to TimersSports
Jeff's Daytona Picks:
2-Brad Keselowski: Kes have a history of delivering big time wins & have turned into one of the best plate racers. He finish inside top 5 at Daytona 500 last season & won at Talladega in the fall. Brad will likely miss most rosters. Due to people lack of knowledge on Brad plate skills. Lower the % of people pick him , the riskier he becomes. On the flip side , lower the % more the value. Meaning he could be the big BANG play some of you looking for.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon arguably had one of the better rookies seasons on plate tracks in quite a long time. Dillon did what was need of him by avoiding wrecks , costly mistakes , and other key things. Not too many were surprised by his solid 2014 finishes at Daytona and Talladega though. He was pretty good in the lower-leveled series at these respected venues.
10-Danica Patrick: Danica isn't by any means by top choice for a fantasy pick at any racetrack. But in Yahoo Fantasy Racing she will be a very popular one with a thin selection of drivers. Danica is a proven plate racer with a habit of starting up front. In 3 Daytona 500s , Danica have finishes of 8th, 38 and 40 for 28.6 average finish. Far from impressive , but have finished 14th or better 3 of her last four starts. Those are her only 4 starts at Daytona as a full-time driver in NSCS. She worth a look if the price or value seems legit. My advice in Yahoo Fantasy Racing is to leave her off your Daytona roster. She clearly the best option in that grouping tier. But you want 9-Top 20 from Danica throughout the season. Nothing is certain at Daytona.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is someone I like a bunch since most people will overlook Hamlin as most will likely pick someone like Kenseth , Dale Jr , Gordon , Harivick , etc. You know the big names. In leagues such as Yahoo , Hamlin will hold the most value. Big reason is Hamlin won't get pick because of all the big names. I love Hamlin for the Daytona 500. In fact I like the JGR SuperSpeedway program. They been legit the past few season. Another reason to be positive about Hamlin. If the value right take a shot with Hamlin. Denny had a 4.0 average finish last season in the two Daytona races. He been much better at the 500 then the July race though. Over the past 3 Daytona 500s , Hamlin have a 10.7 average and 2 Top 5s. In the July races, Denny have an 22.3 average finish. Those stats are irrelevant when it comes down to it at Daytona. Hamlin needs to stay up & avoid wrecks.
13-Casey Mears: Mears is a driver I been eying since all offseason for the Daytona 500. By pure logic most people will overlook Mears because he isn't a top driver in elite equipment. Last season he was one of the few driver who had a average finish inside the top 10. Mears does a great job of avoiding trouble and finding ways to the front at end of the race. He won't be used a lot during the 2015 season , but it consideration for Daytona. What I love most about him? Currently only selected by 4% on Yahoo. Most fantasy games have him at a similar %. Least from the games I have seen. But I would expect a upstick in players targeting Mears for the 500. Especially after a 3rd in the Unlimited race.
16-Greg Biffle: The Biff have gone under the radar as the Daytona 500 approaches. Nothing is better then a stout plate racer under the radar at the sport's biggest race. Biff have been the best driver over the past 3 seasons. No diver have a better Average Running position (ARP). That is the most reverent stat at the plate races. Also it helps Biff have a very good record here. Roush cars usually show up with a lot of speed. He finished 2nd last season & was very competitive in the July race.
20-Matt Kenseth: I like Kenseth much as his teammate Hamlin. Kenseth have been one of the strongest plate racers for a long time. Doesn't matter in the 17 car or 20 car , Kenseth seems to be a top contender either way. Last season Kenseth had some bad luck at Daytona. But don't be fooled. He was a legitimate contender in both races. Finished 3rd in the 500. 2 key qualities I like about Kenseth. 1) He an experience & successful plate race who understands how to use it to his advantage. 2) Kenseth is a relatively safe fantasy pick who won't make a stupid mistake while going for the win. Two good qualities I like in a fantasy pick. Of course no pick is Daytona-proof. I do like how strong he was at the Unlimited Race.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman unlikely to be a popular fantasy pick at Daytona. Not sure why especially in deeper formats. Newman have turned his bad luck around over past few seasons. Now Newman haven't had Dale Jr like-numbers, but he been solidly one of the better picks. I wouldn't be against take a shot in the dark & going off sequence in certain formats. After all anything can happen in 500 laps. Plenty of time for Newman to end up in the garage early or in victory lane.
88-Dale Jr: The obvious pick for the Daytona 500 is Dale Earnhardt Jr. A lot of upside on picking Dale Jr. Probably 50% of every team will have Dale Jr on his roster. Probably more like 75% in some formats. The downside to picking Dale Jr? You won't be able to separate yourself from everyone else. But if he wins like last season , you probably won't be complaining. If Dale should finish poorly, then it won't hurt much either. Win-win in my opinion. Last season Dale Jr won the Daytona 500 & finished inside the top 10 in July. Dale Jr is a golden chip. Do you play it safe & fold or do you rip up your Dale card & go all in with the minority.
1-JMac: Jamie Mac is dead to me on plate tracks. I am sorry, but I don't see the logic in picking a guy who wreck out ( or multiple laps downs) every 3 of 4 plate races. That's like banging your head off the wall 3 times. Last season I don't think JMac even notch a top 20 finish. Yet he once again a popular sleeper among the fantasy nascar community. Outside of Talladega win in 2013 and Daytona 500 win , JMac have been either hit or miss. At this point , JMac is a bust. Remember Saturday Unlimited Race? He was one of the strongest drivers until bad luck found him. That been his problem for years. Unlikely to change suddenly.
4-Kevin Harvick: Not really on the Harvick hype train in 2015. Least at the Daytona 500. Harvick is a well-known plate racer. Honestly I feel like kinda his value-killer right there. With combination of the defending Nascar champ title , Harvick get overvalued. I hate overpaying for fantasy options at Daytona. Plus there plenty of other places to use him. In limited useage leagues , I would rather wait on Harvick. Way too valuable in my opinion. In Salary cap leagues , I am not against using Harvick as one of my drivers. Long as the price is right.
5-Kasey Kahne: I am relatively high on Kasey Kahne in 2015. Daytona however isn't one of the tracks I am high on Kahne at. Kahne so far in career with HMS have been all or nothing. Hard to feel confident about anyone with those terms associated with him/her. I suggest waiting with Kanhe , least until we have a few race under our belts.
14-Tony Stewart: Smoke always a popular pick at Daytona. Smoke have high good deal of success. Even at the Daytona 500 , Smoke have found success. He have never won , but he have scored multiple Top 5 at this venue. But I would rather stay away from him for the time being. Last time he finished a plate race was like 2012 on the lead lap. Could be wrong about that , but pretty sure he was multiple laps down all 4 races in 2014. He raced in 3 plate races in 2013 and had same results as 2014. So 7 straight non-top 20s. I cannot roster someone I don't have faith in. Smoke is one of the best ever at Daytona. But I need to see him finish one of these race again. Before I pull the trigger on him again.
18-Kyle Busch: Busch always will have the potential to have a respectable finish at Daytona. But he yet to put together a true breakthrough race. In the past he been competitive , but haven't been able to put all the pieces together. Until he can put all the pieces together , Busch will be a liability. Save him for Atlanta and beyond.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is in a top notch ride (JGR) , while Edwards always seems to be in the mix , he never seems to be able to deliver the deal. I don't expect that to change from RFR to JGR. Even though Edwards was pretty strong at the Unlimited race. Not a big believer in one-race sample. Edwards will be much more useful at other upcoming tracks. I would rather wait and see how Edwards does at Daytona , then we will talk about Talladega. I would consider him in formats that offered bonus points for fastest lap & lap led (example- Fantasy Live).
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon isn't someone I really like at Daytona. Gordon finished in the top 5 last season at the Daytona 500. But those been one of his few good results at plate tracks recently. A good finish from a stud like Gordon is top 10. Gordon have been one of the most untrustworthy options at Daytona. Gordon was once a very good option. Could I be wrong? Heck yeah. I just wouldn't recommend. In fantasy nascar it about the outcome & the probability of finishing on the lead lap. There much better places to use Gordon. Don't use Gordon because it his last Daytona 500. That's idiotic. Save him for another day. Gordon have a lot of great tracks coming up.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson in my opinion is a good but not great plate racer. Johnson seems to always be contention for the win. But doesn't always deliver in the end. Usually he scores a top 5 or finishes outside top 25. Kinda huge risk/ huge reward. Honestly in certain formats I would probably play him. Depends on the formats. This article is based on Yahoo Fantasy Racing format , so I would leave him off. In formats which enhances the overall race & don't necessary put huge focus on final finish. Those are the formats I would recommend considering Johnson at. Fantasy Live wouldn't a terrible game to select him in. Given the price is reasonable though.
22-Joey Logano: Logano isn't exactly known for his stout plate skills , but he should make a fine fantasy option to any team for the Daytona 500. I love Penske for the 500 because they have ran up front lately there and complied a lot of points for their respected fantasy players. Last season the Penske cars were two of the strongest cars in the entire field at both Daytona(s) and Talladega(s). Logano price may be too high in some games , but if the price is right then I like the hidden value he brings. Stats don't really tell the whole story. Logano have turned into one of the better racers at Daytona.
27-Paul Menard: Menard is one of my favorite sleepers in the field. The results haven't been there for Menard. But he usually show up competitive until something happens to him. Last season at the 500 , Menard was one of the best drivers during speedweeks & well into the Daytona 500 race itself. He actually led quite a few laps early. In general , the RCR cars had the plate tracks figured out. They were very strong in qualifying & the races. Not sure if I would pull the trigger on Menard , but there are worse options to pick.
41-Kurt Busch: I consider Kurt Busch the best driver to never win a plate race. He is way underrated when it comes to these races. Despite zero wins , Busch always been in the mix for the win and he will once again be exactly that. I don't see Kurt breaking through to victory lane though. He is a good pick for the daredevils out there. Especially in costumed leagues where they offered additional bonus points for number of categories. He should be a nice option in that regard.
43-Aric Almirola: Almirola most known for his Daytona-shorten win back in July , but Aric actually have found success on the plate tracks. His win back in July was truly his breakout race , but don't be fooled he not a terrible plate racer. If I was a gamble , I wouldn't mind a small piece of action on Aric. Don't expect another win out of Aric , but a solid top 20 is probably in order. He is a deep sleeper though. Anyone who decides to risk it with Almirola , you are playing with fire. Only take one bad move to start your year off in the toilet.
51-Justin Alliager: Justin was not a strong , but decent performer at plate tracks in 2014. He showed promise from time to time. The one race that stood out to me was the first Talladega race. He up front dueling it out with the sport's top names with less then 30 to go. He didn't get a great finish due to a late race blown tire or something. Still was good to see. I want to see more of him up front. Starting at Daytona.
Well folks that how I feel heading into the Daytona 500. Feel free to do whatever you like what the information above. Just know everyone in the field have a equal chance to finish 1st or wreck out. My advice is to go with your gut. At end of the day , you will make your final decisions Not me. Not any other expert out there , but you.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
