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Before we get started on Fontona , I want to say how about Kevin Harvick winning his 2nd race of the season. Man has he been impressive.
We are headed to Fontana. This is an 2-mile track commonly compared to Pocono , Indy and Michigan. To be fair , Vegas/Atlanta and Fontana have more in common than most realize. Despite the size different , we should be able to get the relevant info to figure out who will be contenders. All three share the same worn-out surface characteristic.
1-Jamie Mac: JMac is someone to watch after an 2nd place run at Phoenix. Back at Vegas , he also scored an top 10. This 1 team goes vastly unnoticed most weeks. I like the value he brings once again. JMac finished 6th and 19th the past two seasons. At Las Vegas , he finished 10th. From career point of view , JMac only have 1 Top 15 since 2007 though.
2-Brad Keselowski: Brad K looked like Brad K at Phoenix. Actually was pretty impressed to tell you the truth. He was never a contender at Vegas few weeks ago though. He finish in the top 10 , but didn't looked great throughout. I am not real high on him for ACS honestly. He had a fast car last season , but this is a bad track for him. 5 Of his 6 career starts have ended outside of 20th. Last season was actually his best overall performance here though. Posted 94.4 driver rating and led 38 laps before finishing one lap down.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon isn't exactly my ideal pick for Auto Club. Yes he does have an 11.0 average finish. But he only have one career start. Let dig deeper into last season race and find out how good he actually was. In that race he only held an 74.4 driver rating. Most people will jump the gun and select Dillon to their fantasy team without doing further research. He wasn't very impressive at Vegas or Atlanta either. You're better off with keeping Dillon in the garage.
4-Kevin Harvick: I already used Harvick twice in Yahoo and honestly I don't mind burning all my Harvick before Charlotte. Especially if the results are like this. Last season Harvick had a top 3 car before having an blown tire ruined Harvick day. Two weeks ago Harvick put on a clinic at Las Vegas on his way to victory lane. At Atlanta , he led the most lap to an 2nd place finish. From career point of view , Harvick been very reliable! 8 of the past 10 races at ACS have ended in 13th or better. Including 7 Top 10 and 4 of those ended in 4th or better.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne is coming off an 4th place. He like a woman's mind! Always inconsistent. His record at Auto Club been actually fairly decent. Last season Kahne finished 41st after a blown tire. But before last season race , KK had recorded 4 straight Top 14s. Including a pair of 9th place efforts and a 4th. Two weeks ago at Vegas , Kahne arguably had the 2nd best car before getting wrecked.
10-Danica Patrick: Danica is coming off an 26th at Phoenix. Auto Club fit right into Danica wheelhouse. Big and fast. Last season she showed she could run well at similar type track. Unfortunately success doesn't always transfer over. Last season she posted a 63.4 driver rating and finish 14th. Her finish is clearly misleading. I think she could knock off an top 20 at Auto Club.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin and Auto Club don't go together too well lately. In 2013 , him and Logano wrecked which sent him into a non-safer barrier wall and missed last season race due to an eye injury. Finishing all the laps would be a win for Hamlin this year. Honestly I don't trust any JGR driver not named Matt Kenseth. They're still lacking speed and cannot keep up the chevys. Even though I would consider sneaking Hamlin on. He was pretty impressive at Vegas and was much better than his actually finish. Had a top 5 car before wrecking in front most of the field.
14-Tony Stewart: Stewart isn't even worth consideration anymore and that a damn shame. He was having a great run at Phoenix , until he spun. Last season at Auto Club he finished 4th , but wasn't a much of a contender overall. Mainly a teen-ish driver from a overall performance vantage point.
16-Greg Biffle: The Biff is coming off an 27-place finish at Phoenix and RFR looks completely lost after 4 races. Honestly I don't see anyway I would put Biffle on my team in the near future. RFR been irreverent for awhile now and soon they will be off the map as a major organization. Last season Biff finished 40th after a blown tire late in the event. Wasn't much of a contender either. Few weeks ago at Atlanta and Vegas , Biff wheeled home an top 20. Expect more of the same for Auto Club.
18-David Ragan: I really wish Kyle Busch was back. This rule package screams his name. Unfortunately we have to make due with David Ragan. He nothing special. In the recent weeks with JGR , Ragan have been a high-teen to low-twenties caliber driver. The results can back that up. Expect similar type results come Sunday.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is coming off an 13th place finish and honestly I haven't been very impressive after 4 races to be honest. Auto Club is a great track for Edwards though. Only twice have he finished worse than 13th. In 17 career starts , Edwards have compiled 8 Top 5s and 14 Top 10s. Edwards is almost a lock for a top 10 from a career vantage point. Two weeks ago at Vegas , Edwards was running top 5 before wrecking into Kahne.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth finished 16th at Phoenix and now looks to bounce back at Auto Club. This is a decent track for Kenseth too. In 22 career starts , Matt have recorded 15 Top 10s and 8 Top 5s. From September 2005 to February 2009 , Kenseth had one of the most impressive runs at this track. In that span he recorded 8 straight top 7. Which included 5 Top 5s and 3 of those top 5s were wins. Since? 3 Top 7 in past 4 races. Only race he didn't score a top 7 was a rain-shorten race. At Atlanta and Las Vegas , Kenseth scored finishes of 5th and 9th.
22-Joey Logano: Logano have a obvious trend this season and I think it should be taken notice. He start up front and run well for about the first 1/2 and then fade to the latter part of the top 10. Sounds like a great option for Fantasy Live if you ask me. Since joining Penske , JoLo have been very fast on the Intermediates. In his debut in 2013 , he finished 5th. He unfortunately was involved in the epic tire wreckfest last season. Logano have compiled an 7.0 average finish at Vegas and Atlanta. More noticeable is his 1.5 average starting position though.
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon score his first top 10 of 2015 at Phoenix. People keep asking , "Why isn't Gordon contending for wins like last season?" Answer last year rule package was pretty much perfect for Gordon driving style. This year not so much. He will contend for top 10s , but that will be his ceiling at most of these intermediate tracks. At Atlanta and Vegas , Gordon pretty much resembled that. He struggled to even be a top 10. I don't buy into poor starting position. You can goes from back to front in under 100 laps at worn-out tracks.
27-Paul Menard: Menard is a great potential sleeper at Auto Club. Menard is like the most underrated driver I think I ever seen to start a season. The dude is so damn consistent , yet just keep going unnoticed. He may not be running top 15 at the start , but he find ways to be reliable in the end. At ACS , he have hit on something the past two seasons. Back-back Top 10s which is very encouraging since he had 12.5 average finish on the first two intermediate tracks.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman is similar to teammates Paul Menard and Austin Dillon. Consistent , but only different is Newman have much more upside. I see an potential top 10 week at Auto Club. Kinda funny how consistent he been. If I need to make up ground , this might be my man. Last three races (Atlanta , Vegas and Phoenix) , he have posted an 5.3 average finish. Including 2 Top 5s back-to-back. Any takers?
41-Kurt Busch: Busch is back and at a great time too. He finished 5th at Phoenix and now go to two of his top tracks over the next two races. At Auto Club , Busch have 21 start. 15 times he have finished 13th or better and 7 of those were 7th or better. Including 6 of his past 8 races. I like his chances at another top 10 this week.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson is off to a disappointing start (according to most) , but he started off as I expected. Larson loves the slick tracks. Once the weather get warmer , this kid gonna be a top 5 machine. I am personally waiting on him. But I like him at Auto Club. If it warm on raceday , he could definitely win this week. At ACS last season , he nearly sweep the weekend. He finish second to only Kyle Busch.
47-AJ Dinger: After an disappointing 17th place finish , the Dinger is under the radar. I like back at similar tracks in 2015 (Vegas & Atlanta) , he compiled an 6.5 average finish. More impressive? He ran competitively too. At Auto Club last season , Dinger actually had a great 8th place run. If he stay up front , I really like what value he has though. I have a feeling he will be overlooked.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Everyone have their own opinion regarding Johnson. I totally respect that , but I believe 48 Team may be already experimenting. Especially since they've a win. I could be wrong though. His stats here are top notch. In 20 starts , Johnson have 12 Top 3 finishes! That's 60% insane folks! Also 19 of 20 races , Johnson finished inside the top 16. Only race he haven't? Last season (24th). He was leading with under 15 to go when his tire let go.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Look I am not gonna bore you with stats nor am I gonna tell you how fast he been this season. Just ride the hot streak he is on! Its doesn't matter what game you play. He is a excellent value , especially with uncertainty if he can keep this pace.
88-Dale Jr: Junior is coming off an 43rd place finish at Phoenix. But good news is , he been among the best drivers on the first two intermediate tracks. He posted an 3.5 average finish. He been one of the most reliable options since 2011 (last 4 races) with an 7.2 average finish at this track. He may be a sneaky play this week.
*All stats from Driver averages.com
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