Friday, May 08, 2015

Fantasy Nascar Update (Kansas)

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A:

1. Kevin Harvick - There a lot to like about Harvick this weekend at Kansas. He was bad fast in both practices and looks poised to take command early. Its also encouraging he was real strong last season here and been the driver to beat on this type track in 2015. In fact on similar tracks , he holds an 1.8 average finish and 4 Top 2 finishes. Hard to ignore stats like those. Especially one that are relevant! He have to be the favorite heading into Saturday's race.

My Overall Ranking: 1st

2. Joey Logano - Logano once again look like one of the favorite to win. He was pretty solid in both practice sessions. More noticeably he was especially strong on the long runs. Showed excellent speed all around. Hard to see Joey not being a contender on Saturday night. I say he will finish anywhere in the top 5. I really like him in Yahoo though. Leading a lap early on could give owners extra confident , in case he fades to latter part of the top 5/top 10 late in the race. Something I always look for in a option. He have a habit of leading laps early in races this season.

My Overall Ranking: 2nd

3. Jimmie Johnson- Johnson have finished 4th or better in 4 straight races. A lot to like about Johnson this weekend at Kansas. He showed decent speed in both practices , but I wouldn't say I was impressed though. Johnson was pleased at end of first practice with the car. However two things Johnson have that I like: 1) Stout Kansas track record. 2) Extremely strong record on similar tracks in 2015. Hard to deny thise things are very important when looking at fantasy picks. I say Johnson will contend for an top 5 on Saturday. Not sure if he is good enough to dominate up front though. I have him finishing around 3rd - 7th place range when the checkers waves. Despite starting mid-pack(ish).

My Overall Ranking: 3rd

4. Dale Jr - Junior looked real good in pair of practices on Friday. Shouldn't be surprised at all! Last fall , Dale Jr should have won this race. In my opinion he had a car capable of dominating at Kansas. He led 45 laps before a blown tire ended his day. I have very high hopes for the 88 this weekend. In the first practice , Dale was overall very fast and ended 4th. He backed that up in final practice , as he posted some very fast laps. Noticeably Dale completed the most laps in the first practice. Most times (in my opinion) that is a good indication , the driver happy with his car. He roll off from just outside the top 12.

My Overall Ranking: 4th

5. Brad Keselowski - Didn't pay much attention to Keselowski in either practices , but his lap times on the speed charts looked real good. So I assumed he was pretty good. His finished both sessions in the top 10 in terms of fastest lap. Also in the first practice , he posted the 7th-best ten lap average (183 mph). Only about 10 cars put down laps. Keselowski should be a top 10 option with potential top 5 upside. However I wouldn't count on it. He was pretty much on the line of top 5/top 10. I would put my money on just outside the top 5 when the checkers waves. I have crossing the line in 6th.

My Overall Ranking: 6th

Other Options - Jeff Gordon (8th) , Matt Kenseth (9th) , Ryan Newman (11th) ,and Denny Hamlin (13th)

B:

1. Martin Truex Jr - Truex is having an awesome season , and you can expect another strong run out of him at Kansas. He was strong in both practices and should be easily an top 10 car. I would be surprised if he finished worse than 8th. I am pretty high on Truex for several reasons. Not only because of his practice results , but he have 3 Top 5s in his past 4 Kansas races. Not to mention , he have finished every race on this type track in the top 10 this season. Everything points to Truex having another great run. I wouldn't be shocked to see him in victory lane.

My Overall Ranking: 5th

2. Carl Edwards - Edwards looked good in both sessions on Friday. He finished practice 1 in 3rd. Clearly was q-trim. He spent most (if not all) of that practice focusing on qualifying. In final practice , I expect he spent majority of it in race trim. He should be an top 10 car for Saturday race. Not sure if he can finish though. The key for Edwards is to get some momentum before the 600. I think Edwards finally steps up to the plate and deliver. I have him across around 10th. I would have him higher , but for now it best to give him little room for error.

My Overall Ranking: 10th

3. Kasey Kahne - We didn't hear much about Kahne on Friday. Despite finishing 13th and 9th in the Friday's practices. In final practice , Kahne posted the 3rd-best ten lap average. However there were only 7 cars eligible to be placed on this speed chart. There two things I like about Kahne: 1) he have finished 2nd or 3rd in his past 2 Kansas spring races. 2) His strength on the high-speed Intermediate tracks in 2015. I don't see him running inside the top 5 all race long , but another top 10 isn't out of the outside. Personally I think that the most likely outcome for the driver of the #5 car. I have him across the line around 8th. Unfortunately I don't entirely trust him , so I had to bump in my overall rankings.

My Overall Ranking: 12th

4. Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson rolled off the truck pretty fast. He was very pleased with his car throughout practice 1 and ended 6th on the charts. He wasn't quite as good in final practice , but I wouldn't be worried at all. Larson focused on race trim mainly and finished 21st ultimately. I expect a breakout race for the young 2nd-year driver. The weather getting warmer and he is due for a great run. Among under the radar drivers , Larson showed the most promise on Friday. I say he have an top 10 run. However he been really inconsistent this season , so that really hurt him in my overall rankings.

My Overall Ranking: 14th

5. Kurt Busch - I am not super high on Busch! In 18 career starts , only 1 Top 5 and 4 Top 10s. No I am not talking about his brother Kyle. His numbers are even worse. His career at Kansas is irreverent , but he didn't exactly scream "winning potential" in either practice. Honestly he more between Top 10 and top 15 than anything. I just cannot trust a guy with the last name Busch at Kansas. However he been bad fast all season , so no reason to believe he won't find a way to the front. Tough to say since this is a night race! I him across the line somewhere just inside or outside the top 10.

My Overall Ranking: 15th

Other Options - Jamie Mac (16th) , Aric Almirola (17th) , Paul Menard (19th) and Clint Bowyer (20th)

C:

1. Erik Jones - Jones was pretty impressive in practice , considering this is only his first career start. I think he can knock off an top 20. Not entirely sure if he can muster something like top 10 or even top 15 finish. Its difficult to run that competitive for a rookie in his first career start. Not to say , he won't. Generally speaking , it is quite difficult. I definitely think he can run top 15. His inexperience may be his ultimate flaw that does him in. I have him across the line at 18th.

My Overall Ranking: 18th

2. David Ragan -Ragan isn't exactly my ideal no.2 option , but you could do much worse in this tier. He wasn't too bad in those practices. He ended 23rd (practice 1) and 19th (final practice). Cannot say he gonna be able to finish inside the top 20. But MWR said they're making gains lately with their cars. I am not against rolling the dice with Ragan. He could be the top option in this tier , if Jones goofs up. I have him across the line around 23rd.

My Overall Ranking: 23rd

3. Danica Patrick -Patrick struggled in both practices on Friday. In my Preview (on Monday) , I pointed out Danica only had an 24.0 average running position and finished 16th last fall. I kinda feel like she will have an similar performance on Saturday. Honestly I don't know if she can sneak into the top 20 this weekend. I say it unlikely , but she have a habit of finishing better than she performs.

My Overall Ranking: 25th

4. Ty Dillon - Not sure what to expect from Dillon. He being backed by RCR , but that team scares the hell out of him. Blown engines have been a common occurrence of late. Including at Daytona and Texas. He wasn't too bad in practice , but nothing overly impressive. Not a lot to like about Ty really. Honestly he probably most useful in leagues that offer points for position differentiate.

My Overall Ranking: 26th

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