Thursday, September 10, 2015

Fantasy Football Starts/Sits (Week 1)

Welcome to TimersSports

Fantasy Football is back and I couldn't be happier! It is that time of the year again! Fantasy drafts are in full swing as the season is basically here as we are just days away from opening night (on Thursday). So today we'll look at what players you should start and sits. I always hate week 1 of the season because there are some many unknowns. We don't have any season data, so we have to go on previous seasons stats which could be risky since teams can improve in the offseason.However we don't have anything else to go on , so it better than nothing, right?

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Let get started!


Starts -

Quarterbacks:

Tony Romo -Tony Romo had a pretty good 2014 season where he finished among the top 13 Quarterbacks for the year. He should continue that success in week 1 against the Giants! Last season New York was terrible against opposing Quarterback and allowed the 4th-most fantasy points per game. They only allowed 25 Touchdowns, but allowed the 12th-most passing yards last season. Romo himself have had a lot of success against this team though. Last season he threw for 554 yards (277/per game) and 7 Touchdowns (3.5/per game). He isn't the first Quarterback you would probably want leading your team, but he should get the job done in week 1!

Matt Ryan - Ryan is a very underrated Quarterback. He isn't Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck, but he doesn't need to be. Ryan should have QB1 potential long as Julio Jones stays healthy. In week 1, the Falcons get a very good match-up for their Quarterback.  The Eagles shouldn't be much of a challenge for Matty-ice. Why do you ask? Well for starters, the Eagles allowed the 3rd most fantasy points vs opposing Quarterbacks (23.9 points/per game). It get worse though. They also allowed the most passing yards to Quarterback on the defense side of the ball. They were the only one of two team in the NFL last season to allow over 285 yards per game. The other was the Atlanta Falcons (ironic, right?) Also allowing nearly 2 Touchdown per game didn't help either. Ryan on the other hand finished 7th in fantasy points per game (22.6 points/per game) and finished 5th in passing yards (293.3 yards/per game). I expect a high scoring affair, so you probably should start the Quarterbacks on both teams!

Tom Brady - Let me put it simple: Brady is mad and the Steelers will be his stress reliever! Last season Brady finished 14th among all Quarterbacks (21.9 points/per game). While that won't blow anyone away, I do think Brady will have a better season in 2015. He should start the season off very well on Thursday vs Pittsburgh. The Steelers don't have the defense they use to and it showed last season vs the pass. They allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to Quarterbacks as a unit. I am willing to bet that Brad least rack up 250 yards and 2 Touchdowns vs this defense.


Running backs -


Doug Martin - Yes I know some of you aren't fully with me on Martin as he have probably burned you several times over the past few seasons. However this season will be different, trust me! He looked great in the preseason, he was faster, he was healthy and he looked stronger than previously! Winston will make his NFL debut which could means that Tampa look to ground and pound againist a league-worst run defense from last season. In 2014, the Titans allowed a league-high 2000 yards on the ground! Overall they allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points (23.1 points/per game). The Titans also were 2nd in allowing rushing Touchdowns. Only Atlanta (19) were scored more on the ground than the Titans's 19 scores. If Tampa get a early then you should enjoy a solid day from your running back!

Jonathan Stewart - I have not drafted a Carolina running back, since Jake Delhomme was the starting Quarterback. Yeah I feel pretty old at the moment! I guess I didn't like drafting a running back from this team is because Williams and Stewart went hand and hand. Now that Williams is up in Pittsburgh, I don't have to worry about that. Stewart is the sole back on this team with fantasy value. In week 1, he will have a very good matchup against Jacksonville. While the Jags are showing improvements with offseason additions, they are still ways away from being a competitive football team. Last season Jacksonville allowed the 5th-most fantasy points vs running backs. On average they allowed over 100 yards on ground per game. I wouldn't be shocked if Stewart hit that number, since I would expect Carolina to jump out to comfortable lead early on.


Andre Ellington - I am not sure how Ellington will do this season. On one hand, he have a potential to be a top 15 or top 20 back in fantasy football when he is healthy and given a respectable load. On the flip side, it sound like he will lose carries to Chris Johnson and rookie David Johnson as the season wears on! However he have a very good matchup vs the Saints. He should be able to take advantage of this. Last season, this defense allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to running backs. I like Ellington even more in PPR leagues though. In standard leagues,  he should flirt with 100 yards since I expect Palmer to dump it off to him often on Sunday. When Ellington healthy, I think he is one of the funniest running backs in league to watch!

Wide Receivers -

Davante Adams - Davante Adams was one of my personal favorite sleepers headed into the 2015 preseason, he quickly became a star with the injury to Jordy Nelson. I know a lot of you are concerned with the return of James Jones. However I wouldn't unless Adams underperform and then I could see Jones chopping into his fantasy value. As of week 1, I am 100% sold on this kid. Trust me the Chicago Bears won't be able to stop the this high-power Green Bay offense which means targets for everyone! Last season the Bears weren't very good against the pass, as they allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to Wide Receivers. That shouldn't be as alarming as what Green Bay did to Chicago last season! In 2 games, they outscored them 93-31. I don't think it will be that bad this time, but still look for Aaron Rodgers to lit up this inexperience Chicago defense. Adams should be in for a very solid day, especially if Cobb isn't at 100%.

John Brown - Last season you probably heard a thing or two about John Brown who was a rookie on a very talented Arizona team. This season you will hear a lot about Brown though. Larry Fitzgerald thinks Brown is the next big thing. Larry knows a thing or two about being a great wide receiver, so I am taking his word for it. I think Palmer will look for his young wide out early and often vs the Saints. Last season the Saints struggled vs the pass. They allowed the 7th-most fantasy points against Wide Receivers in 2014, while they tried to improve their secondary I don't it was enough. Also with no Lewis, i think this defense will be exposed big time by this Arizona passing game!

Jordan Matthews - Jordan should take advantage of this matchup vs a questionable Atlanta defense on Monday night. Personally I fully expect Atlanta to field a better defense than most are thinking based off of last season's efforts. However they made a lot of great offseason addition to a lackluster unit. Still probably won't slow down this Eagle high-paced offense though. I think this game will be a good old shootout. Question is who can score more touchdowns? Matthews should be good for least 5-7 catches on somewhere around least 75 yards and maybe a score or two.

Tight Ends -

Larry Donnell - I consider Donnell's Three Touchdown performance last season vs Washington one of my favorite parts about the 2014 season. It was so much fun to watch him destroy opposing fantasy teams. Donnell is a very underrated Tight end as well. He won't beat you by breaking off a big run or nothing, but it about opportunity. Facts are he is the lone tight end with fantasy relevancy in New York. He isn't the go-to-guy either, but he is a mismatch in the red zone. Eli Manning will find ways to get him the ball and that alone gives him enough value for consideration! Least for this week, after this week I rather wait and see with him. As we don't know the pecking order in this offense after Beckham Jr.

Tyler Eifert - I followed Eifert career since he stepped on to the Notre Dame football program and I always been impressive by this kid. If he can stay healthy, then he have the potential to do great things in this Cincy offense. Behind AJ Green and Jeremy Hill, I would think Eifert have most upside in terms of fantasy outlook for the 2015 season. I like Eifert a lot in week 1 vs a improved Oakland defense. However it probably not improved enough to stop Andy Dalton from finding Eifert on Sunday. I wouldn't expect the world from Eifert, but I could see him being a top 10 play vs Oakland or close to it!

Sits -

Quarterbacks -

Jay Cutler - Jay Cutler vs the Green Bay Packers is a terrible mismatch! Jay Cutler have been bad against Green Bay home or away. Quite frankly it doesn't seem to matter. How bad have he been at home? His last Touchdown pass was in 2010. Do I really need to go into detail? I mean that stat alone should probably tell you a lot how Cutler have performed against this defense. Green Bay improved their secondary in the offseason by drafting two guys in the first 3 rounds. That was addition to last year first round selection was also to straighten the secondary. I expect Green Bay to shut down Cutler for the most part, but I guess a few touchodowns wouldn't be too shocking though.

Colin Kaepernick- CK7 was once considered a top Quarterback in the NFL, but that was in 2013. Weird , isn't it? Colin have really fell off over the past year. Then again, the entire 49ers team have fell apart. So I guess it not too surprising. I expect CK7 to be better than he was last season though. In the offseason they added Wide out Torrey Smith and pass-catcher Reggie Bush. Both should benefit him, but I don't they will be game changer for him. Personally I think this team needs get their Tight-end Vernon Davis more in the mix. In week 1, I think Colin will struggle vs a tough Minnesota defense. Last season this united allowed 6th-fewst fantasy points per game to opposing Quarterback. I think this defense will only get better as they enter the 2nd year under Zimmer.


Running Backs -

Alfred Blue - Blue who I think have potential to be a decent running back in the NFL one day will get the start in week 1 in place of injured Arian Foster. Foster still have no timeable return as of this time. I think Blue will probably only be a low-end RB2 or Flex at stage in his career. His matchup against Kansas City isn't one that he will take advantage of though. KC was among the top half of the league at stopping the run. They allowed the 11th-fewest points per game (16.3)  last season. They also allowed 5 touchdowns last season to running backs. That including through the air as well (which Blue doesn't have to worry about). While I think Blue will have his moments this season, I don't think one of them will be in week 1. Keep him on your bench for a rainy day!

Mevlin Gordon - Rarely does rookie running backs hit the ground running. In recent years, we have saw Alfred Morris, Eddie Lacy, Doug Martin,etc come into the NFL swinging with impressive rookie seasons. Gordon was very impressive as a college player, but he struggled in the preseason. He is the preferred starter in San Diego I am sure, but Danny Woodhead will take over the load if Gordon cannot find his footing against the Loins. While I agree the Loins aren't as nearly good as they were last season up front, but I still don't think Gordon will be able to do much. If anything he is probably a flex at best. If he can take command of the starting job, then he probably have RB2 potential as the season goes on!

Wide Receivers -

 Brandon Marshall - You could give me a list of 20 reason why Marshall should be started this week and I wouldn't care. Why? Well for one this is the New York Jets we are talking about. Last season this offense struggled to produce much of anything, even with Decker as the leading man. Marshall is more suited to be the Number 1 option than Marshall. However do you really want to risk putting yourself in a hole this early in the season, if things don't pan out? Sure Marshal could be great, but he also have never played a regular season game with the Jets. How will he click with Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick? What is his ceiling in the Jets offense? I don't know if I can answer those questions without seeing a game first! I would probably use him as a flex though if I really needed to.

Golden Tate - Golden Tate have the potential to be very good in 2015, but i think that may depend on the health of Calvin Johnson. Last season, Johnson wasn't much of a factor considering he spent most of the season hurt! This season he starting the season off healthy and that bad news for Tate owners! Johnson will be the primary target. In case you don't pay enough attention to the Loins, Matthew Stafford love throwing to Johnson! Sure Tate will get his share of the bacon, but I am not sure what to expect from him heading into week 1. Like Marshall I would rather play the wait and see game. If you need to start Tate because you have no real other option, then I am okay with that. Since he probably have the upside to be a WR2 or WR3 guy vs the Saints!

Tight Ends -

Vernon Davis - I always been a big V-Davis fan as I consider him to be one of the best at this position. However CK7 didn't use him last season like he should have. There was a report in the offseason that the 49ers wanted to use him more this season, but I haven't hear anything more about it since. I would jump on Davis if CK7 and him start clicking  vs the Dolphins on Sunday. However there a lot of Ifs and unknowns with Davis. For now he isn't a TE1 in my opinion and probably won't be unitl he is used properly in the 49ers offense. The Dolphins were tough on tight ends last season as well! They allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game last season (6.4) vs Tight ends.

Coby Fleener- Not a good offseason for Fleener! The addition of Andre Johnson will probably means more passes will go the wide receivers. Also the Colts added Dorsett as their first round draft pick back in the spring and host of other weapons still in the Indy offense. He will probably lose production to Johnson this season and might even lose some target to fellow tight end Allen. The fact that Allen a far better block will mean that Fleener will likely come off the field more often. That will hurt in the long run for sure! Aside from that , week 1 is not a good matchup for any tight end on the Colts offense. Last season the Bills allowed the few fantasy points per game (4.2) vs opposing Tight ends. In terms of yards and touchdowns, they allowed 34.6 yards per game and 0.1 touchodowns per game. In basic terms, the Bills were very brutal against this position. Sit Fleener!

**All Scoring is based off of FF Today

**All stats are from FFToday

**Also you check out William's Week 1 Rankings

That's all for this edition of Fantasy Football Starts & Sits! I would have liked to add more starts and sits to this post, but I just don't have the time to do it!

If you have any lineup question, then feel free to send me a tweet on twitter!

 Twitter - @MattAleza