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We are headed to Vegas this weekend, where we visit yet another 1.5 mile racetrack. I personally have some mix feeling about this race package after watching the Atlanta race. Some teams nailed Atlanta and while other absolutely missed it. I thought the racing was really good, even though we started off with a long-200+ laps green flag run. I also don't think it is fair to judge this low-downforce package based on Atlanta. I think we will get a better understanding of it at Vegas this weekend. A lot of the data we got from Atlanta can be used at Vegas, and there also will be a test session later this week, so we can use that data to make our early fantasy picks. Alright let get into today's content!
1-JMac: Jamie Mac struggled pretty bad at Atlanta overall, despite having a strong starting positon. In fact both of the CGR cars looked incredibly off. Either of them contend for even top 15 runs once the fast cars rose to the top of the board. I expect them both to rebound at Vegas though. JMac was pretty good here in last season's race. He started 10th, finished 11th and held 13.0 average running position. Over the past 3 seasons at Vegas, he have compiled 13.0 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 83.4 driver rating. He have finished 8th-15th place range over the past 4 races at Vegas, dating back to the 2012 season. His worst performance over that span was probably in 2014 when he finished 15th. He posted his lowest average running position (16.0) and lowest driver rating (76.3) since the 2012 season. In the other three races, he posted 10.7 average finish with 12.7 average running position and 89.5 driver rating. He finished 8th-13th in those 3 races as well. Based on recent numbers at Vegas, I would pin him as lower to mid teen-type driver headed into the weekend.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski wasn't bad at Atlanta, but he never looked really great. Always seemed to fade on the long runs. He should be better at Vegas though. Last season at Vegas, he started 11th, finished 7th and held 10.0 average running. He been very good at Vegas over the past three seasons. Over the past 3 seasons here, he have compiled 3.7 average finish with 6.7 average running position and 118.6 driver rating. I would say he been good as anyone since the 2013 season at this place. I think he will be close to a top 5 guy headed into the weekend and have a fast car for Sunday's race. Even though I felt like Penske was just a bit behind at Atlanta, I think they will quickly be able to make adjustments and be back to being heavy contenders for race wins.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon was very good at Atlanta. He ran inside the top 15 all day and nearly finished inside the top 15. He could keep up the good run at Vegas as well. Last season he wasn't too bad at Vegas. He started 25th, finished 20th and held 18.0 average running position. So he was slightly better than his final finishing position. Over the past 2 seasons in the #3 car, he have compiled 18.0 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 78.8 driver rating. He was stronger in 2014 in the #3 car. He posted a stronger performance, but to be fair he started all the way up in 4th starting position, so his overall performance may be a bit inflated. I have a feeling Austin Dillon will have a pretty good year. He came on strong in second half of last season and showed similar promise in the first two races of 2016. Question is can he keep it up? We will see!
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is easily one of the favorites headed into this weekend's race at Vegas. He was the driver to beat last weekend at Atlanta and should be one of the drivers to beat once again. Last season at Vegas, he was very strong. He started 18th, finished 1st and posted an stout 4.0 average running position. He was very strong all race long and only had competition he had was Jimmie Johnson probably. Over the past 3 races at Vegas, he have compiled 17.0 average finish with 7.7 average running position and 111.3 driver rating. He won here last season. But blew an engine and finished 41st in 2014. He have been very good here overall though. Since the 2008 seasons (8 races), he have compiled 6 Top 12 finishes. Including 3 Top 11 finishes over his past 4 starts, dating back to the 2012 season. He should be on everyone fantasy radar this week.
5-Kasey Kahne: If you used Kahne at Atlanta, then you probably got burned. I cannot say that I am shocked by that. He ran poorly all race long and eventually managed an 23rd-place finish. Which was probably better than he ran for most of the race. Yeah it was pretty bad overall for him. I think he will be better at Vegas though. How much better is the question though. Last season here, he was very strong until he got into Carl Edwards after a restart. Prior to that point, he was running top 5 all day long. He ended that day in 17th place with a banged up racecar. Over the past 3 seasons at Vegas, he have compiled 9.0 average finish with 7.7 average running position and 110.7 driver rating. His RP and driver rating are pretty impressive. However that stat line is a bit overrated tbh. Mainly because how stout he was in the 2013 event. Started 4th, finished 2nd, led 114 laps and posted 3.0 average running position with 138.3 driver rating. Over the past 2 seasons at Vegas, he have compiled 12.5 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 96.8 driver rating. Still pretty solid overall, but I don't get the feeling he will be that good this weekend. Top 15 is in my opinion his ceiling.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is a solid fantasy choice for this weekend race at Vegas. Even though he struggled at Atlanta last week. He spent majority of the second half of the race a lap down after being lapped. Last season at Vegas, he was pretty good all race long and finished 5th. He posted 7.0 average running position and 108.7 driver rating. He always been pretty reliable at Vegas. Over the past 3 seasons here, he have compiled 10.7 average finish with 10.7 average running position and 94.6 driver rating. So he haven't been great over the past three seasons, but still pretty respectable though. He started off his career at Vegas farily solid with 3 Top 10 finishes. However over the past 7 races since, he have only accounted 2 Top 10 finishes. More worrisome, he have finished 12th-20th in 3 of the past 4 races. On the plus side, his best-career performance came in last season's event where he posted his 2nd-best finish and career-best RP (7.0) and career-best driver rating (108.7). In fact, he never posted an driver rating beyond 92.6 before last season's event. And JGR is much faster at this time this season than it was last season.
13-Casey Mears: Mears is someone that surprised me at Atlanta, I didn't really expect him to be as strong as he was. He started inside the top 15 and finished inside the top 15. That is pretty impressive for a small team like the 13 team who have primary been a low to mid 20 type finisher in prior seasons on the intermediate racetracks. Over the past three seasons, he have compiled 27.3 average finish with 26.7 average running position and 58.6 driver rating. In last season's event, he had his best race at Vegas since the 2008 race (with Hendrick Motorsports). In last season's race, he started 17th (best start since 2008), finished 25th (tied for best finish since 2008), had 25.0 average running position (best RP since 2008) and 68.8 driver rating (best driver rating since 2008). You see a trend there across the board, don't you? I believe the 13 team will be even better this season. Can we expect a similar performance to last week's? No I don't but I think this 13 team is getting better each season and I believe they are capbale of top 20 this week. We will see though. I will make that call after practice though.
16-Greg Biffle: The Biffle and RFR came out swining at Atlanta and looked pretty good all weekend long. He finished 13th at Atlanta and have given us fantasy players so hope that RFR have returned to respectable status. However I am not jumping on the bandwagon quite yet. I need to see how they perform out west and then I will make that call. He was pretty good last season here too. Not great by any means, but decent overall. In last season's event, he started 16th, finished 14th and posted 16.0 average running position. Over the past 3 seasons at Vegas, he have compiled 17.7 average finish with 20.3 average running position and 68.9 driver rating. His numbers are little better than that though. He performed very poorly in the 2014 event. In that race, he started 25th, finished 22nd, had 27.0 average running position and 52.5 driver rating. How bad was that race? That was his worst career start (25th), 2nd worst-career finish (22nd- minus his debut with blown engine), worst career RP (minus his debut) and worst career driver rating (minus his debut). However he have two top 17 finishes over the past three seasons, so there plenty of hope for a decent run out of the Biff this weekend.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Before the season started, I said if RFR can develop then Stenhouse would be the main beneficial driver. He showed that at Atlanta and finished 10th. RFR clearly have made some gains as a whole and it will be interesting if they can keep it up. Last season at Vegas, Ricky wasn't that good though. He was terrible actually! He started started 31st, finished 29th and posted 27.0 average running position. He wasn't much better in the 2014 event where he finished 27th and posted 20.0 average running position and 68.8 driver ating. To be fair, he started 6th for this event in 2014. So that probably helped padding his performance for that event. He had his best career race in 2013 in his debut at this track. In that event, he started 7th, finished 18th and posted 13.0 average running position and 83.5 driver rating. So he was pretty solid in that race. Like with Biff, I am not willing to jump back on board with RFR yet. However I am going to have my eye on them during the next couple races.
18-Kyle Busch: Kyle Busch is off to great start to the season in 2016 an should keep it up at his hometown racetrack of Vegas! He missed last season's race, but that won't matter. JGR have fast cars and Busch is hot right now. Last week at Atlanta, he never really got to show how good he was until late in the event because he had to start dead last. He showed some muscle on those restarts late, so there is no worries about him. Over the past 2 Vegas races, he have compiled 7.5 average finish with 6.5 average running position and 113.3 driver rating. He started off his career very well here with 5 Top 11 finishes in his first 6 races. 3 of those 5 finishes ended inside the top 5 (including a win 2009 event from the pole). However over his past 5 races at Vegas (since 2010 race - missed last season race), he have only managed 1 Top 10 finish and that was in 2013 where he finished 4th. In 2014 event, he was very strong and led 52 laps. But he only could finish 11th in that race. Regardless, I expect him to be tough to beat this weekend. I think JGR will have some fast cars once again and all be least top 10 capable.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards was strong at Atlanta and finished 5th. He should be in for another great weekend at Vegas as well. I consider this as one of his very best racetracks (much like Atlanta is). In last season's event, he was running inside the top 5 before wrecking with Kasey Kahne after a restart. Unlike Kahne, he was not so lucky and had go to garage to get reapired. He should have a great chance at rebounding this weekend though. Over the past 3 races here, he have compiled 17.3 average finish with 13.7 average running position and 89.1 driver rating. Prior to finishing 42nd last season, he had wheeled off 5 straight Top 5 finishes at Vegas. Including a win in the 2011 event. Overall 6 of the past 9 races at Vegas for Edwards have ended inside the top 6. Do you really want to bet against him with that type of effectiveness? I sure wouldn't!
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth had a rotten day at Atlanta overall. He was very strong to start the race and probably had the car to beat all day long. However around the mid-way point, he got black flagged after improper fueling and miscommunication with crew cost him two laps. He never rebound, even though he had one of the best cars at Atlanta. He was also had a pretty good car in last season's event at Vegas. He wasn't overly great, but still top 10 driver. He started 6th, finished 9th and posted 12.0 average running position with 92.6 driver rating. Over the past 3 races at Vegas, he have compiled 6.7 average finish with 9.7 average running position and 102.0 driver rating. He haven't super competition up front over the past two seasons, with only being just a top 10 driver in both races. However he won this race in 2013 and probably had the 2nd-best car to Kasey Kahne (who finished 2nd). Overall Vegas always been a very good racetrack for Kenseth as he holds an career average finish of 11.8 and have won here 3 times. Overall 5 of the past 6 races have ended inside the top 11. Expect least another top 10 finish from Kenseth this weekend!
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney should be a decent fantasy option in selected fantasy leagues and ran very well last weekend at Atlanta. Of course he was involved in a wreck late in the race and derailed his strong finish to the race. He ended in 25th place when the dust finally settled. Even though he was up inside the top 15 for most of the afternoon though. He have one career start at Vegas and that was last season. However he had a engine issue in that race (I remember because I started him in few of my leagues). So we really don't have any data to go on that is relevant to us. So not a whole lot to say about him, other than he probably will have a car capble of finishing inside the top 15. It should be noted, before having issues last season he was running around the 15th place position.
22-Joey Logano: Logano didn't look great in practice at Atlanta, but he sure showed up in the race and made his way up to the top 5 in the race. However he got a pit road penalty (ran over the orange cone) that he never was able to recover from with the lack of cautions. He was strong at Vegas last season and had a top 5 to top 10 car all race long. He started 2nd, finished 10th, led 47 laps and posted 8.0 average running position. He started off the race very strong and led number of laps. However early last season, it seemed like that Logano would fade late in races more often than not. Hence why he didn't get a better finish than 10th. Over the past 3 Vegas races, he have compiled 8.7 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 98.3 driver rating. He started on the pole in the 2014 race and finished 4th. That remains his lone top 5 finish at this racetrack. He had finishes of 10th and 12th in 2015 and 2013. His only other top 12 finish came back in 2010 in his 2nd career start with at Vegas where he finished 6th place. Should be noted, his last two starts (2014 and 2015), he have recorded his best two performance based on the numbers. That is usually a good sign for things to come.
24-Chase Elliott: I debated weather to even list Elliott in my fantasy preview, since there no real data on him at this place. Sure we have last week data, but that is only one race. He ran very well last week and finished 8th. I was impressed, but I wouldn't expect that type of performance on a weekly basis though. Realistically you can expect a finish somewhere in the teens-area, I said last week somewhere in the mid to high teens. But I will give him the benefit of the doubt and say lower to mid teens instead. Like I said, there is not a lot to go on. So my take on Chase is pretty limited overall. Once we get more data, we can get a better idea about him. For now, it more of a guess game how he will do this weekend.
27-Paul Menard: Paul looked lost for most of the weekend at Atlanta and came away with a pretty decent 18th-place finish. I was shocked that he finished that well, since he ran around 25th place for the most part. Not exactly something I want to hear, if I was considering him for Vegas. Even though he been impressive of late at this racetrack. Over the past 3 seasons at Vegas, he have compiled 8.3 average finish with 12.7 average running position and 93.1 driver rating. Menard had his worst performance to date since joining RCR in 2011 at Vegas. He tied his career worst finish with the organization of 12th place finish and posted his worst overall performance with only a 16.0 average running position and 80.9 driver rating. Of course prior to finishing 12th last season, he had 3 straight top 5 finishes.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch looked pretty good at Atlanta from the pole and led some laps early on, before fading to latter part of the top 10 later in the race. He missed last season's race at Vegas because of being suspended by Nascar. Over the past 2 Vegas races, he have compiled 23.0 average finish with 22.0 average running position and 65.6 driver rating. Really the only race that is relevant to Kurt's fantasy value is the 2014 event, since that is his lone start since joining SHR. In that event, he started 23rd, finished 26th and posted 22.0 average running position. Regardless he have never performed well at Vegas. In 14 career starts, he have only managed 3 Top 10 finishes (best career finish was 3rd in 2005 - lone Top 8 finish as well). Overall he have accounted 1 Top 5, 3 Top 10s, 4 Top 15 finishes and only 7 total Top 20 finishes at Vegas. I think he will be better this time around at his hometrack, but man I don't like those stats one bit. Even though he have proven past stats can be thrown out the window sometimes.
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson is a great talent, but he run well when the team missed the setup on the car. That exactly what happened this past weekend at Atlanta. He was terrible on lap 1 and well never could get out of the early hole. Reminds me so much of the Charlotte race last season where he and teammate Jamie Mac sucked all race long. The results mirrored that race as well. Still I think he can rebound this weekend at Vegas. He was very good here last season and finished 8th in that event. He had a top 10 car all day long and finished there too. In 2 career races at Vegas, he have compiled 13.5 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 89.5 driver rating. He showed significant improves from year 1 to year 2 at Vegas. In his debut, he started 17th, finished 19th and posted 20.0 average running position and 76.6 driver rating. In last season event, he started 5th, finished 8th and posted 8.0 average running position and 102.3 driver rating. I think it will all depend on how CGR unload this weekend, weather or not Larson have any fantasy value. If he doesn't look good in practice, then I am not touching him.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson was impressive at Atlanta and ended up going to victory lane like I expected him to after practice. He now have a good chance of making it back-to-back wins, which is something that seems to be a common occurrence from the 48 early in the season. He may have had the best car in last season's event, but believe he got into the wall during the race and had to get repaired. If I recall correctly, he was already a lap down from pitting for a loose wheel. Over the past 2 races (prior to last season's race), he have compiled 6.0 average finish with 3.0 average running position and 124.3 driver rating. Prior to finishing 41st in last season's event, he have finished 6th or better in 4 of the past 5 races. But only twice did he finish inside the top 5 though. It should be noted, one of those 2 finishes resulted in wins (2010). Johnson is a 4-time Vegas winner, but his last one came in 2010. Actually all 4 of his wins came from 2005 to 2010 seasons (6-year span). I view Johnson as one of the heavy favorites headed into the weekend!
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr was impressive at Atlanta and should be back in the mix at Vegas. He was awesome here last season and I don't see any reason why he won't be again this week. Over the past 3 seasons at Vegas, he have compiled 8.0 average finish with 6.7 average running position and 105.8 driver rating. He finished 2nd in last season's race and was really strong all day long. Started 8th, finished 2nd and posted 6.0 average running position and 117.6 driver rating. He always been pretty good at Vegas though. He have finished 14th or better in 3 straight Vegas races and 2 of those 3 have ended inside the top 8. Overall he have 3 Top 8 finishes over his past 5 races here. In 10 career races at Vegas, he have finished 6 of those 10 races inside the top 15. Pretty good, don't you agree?
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr is probably the best-kept secret in fantasy racing and he proved that last week at Atlanta. I had a strong feeling he was going to be a factor all day long after watching him in practice. He finished 2nd. He should be very good at Vegas too. He have been one of the most reliable fantasy options in the game lately. In fact that exactly what he been. He leads the series with 5 straight Top 10 finishes (no other driver can say that). Over the past 3 Vegas races, he have compiled 4.3 average finish with 5.3 average running position and 116.4 driver rating. He have knock off back-to-back Top 5 finishes (only driver to accomplish this), 3 straight Top 10 finishes (only one of three driver to accomplish this) and have 7 top 10 finishes over his past 8 races (leads the series in that span). Since joining HMS in 2008 (8 races), he have compiled an series best 7.4 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 105.4 driver rating. Plain and simple, Dale Jr is one of the most underrated fantasy options headed into the weekend and most people don't even realize it!
I have a new twitter account (@JeffNathans18), as the last one kept getting hacked into. So if you would like to give it a follow than that is cool. Alright that's it for today's preview. Have a good week!
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
We are headed to Vegas this weekend, where we visit yet another 1.5 mile racetrack. I personally have some mix feeling about this race package after watching the Atlanta race. Some teams nailed Atlanta and while other absolutely missed it. I thought the racing was really good, even though we started off with a long-200+ laps green flag run. I also don't think it is fair to judge this low-downforce package based on Atlanta. I think we will get a better understanding of it at Vegas this weekend. A lot of the data we got from Atlanta can be used at Vegas, and there also will be a test session later this week, so we can use that data to make our early fantasy picks. Alright let get into today's content!
1-JMac: Jamie Mac struggled pretty bad at Atlanta overall, despite having a strong starting positon. In fact both of the CGR cars looked incredibly off. Either of them contend for even top 15 runs once the fast cars rose to the top of the board. I expect them both to rebound at Vegas though. JMac was pretty good here in last season's race. He started 10th, finished 11th and held 13.0 average running position. Over the past 3 seasons at Vegas, he have compiled 13.0 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 83.4 driver rating. He have finished 8th-15th place range over the past 4 races at Vegas, dating back to the 2012 season. His worst performance over that span was probably in 2014 when he finished 15th. He posted his lowest average running position (16.0) and lowest driver rating (76.3) since the 2012 season. In the other three races, he posted 10.7 average finish with 12.7 average running position and 89.5 driver rating. He finished 8th-13th in those 3 races as well. Based on recent numbers at Vegas, I would pin him as lower to mid teen-type driver headed into the weekend.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski wasn't bad at Atlanta, but he never looked really great. Always seemed to fade on the long runs. He should be better at Vegas though. Last season at Vegas, he started 11th, finished 7th and held 10.0 average running. He been very good at Vegas over the past three seasons. Over the past 3 seasons here, he have compiled 3.7 average finish with 6.7 average running position and 118.6 driver rating. I would say he been good as anyone since the 2013 season at this place. I think he will be close to a top 5 guy headed into the weekend and have a fast car for Sunday's race. Even though I felt like Penske was just a bit behind at Atlanta, I think they will quickly be able to make adjustments and be back to being heavy contenders for race wins.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon was very good at Atlanta. He ran inside the top 15 all day and nearly finished inside the top 15. He could keep up the good run at Vegas as well. Last season he wasn't too bad at Vegas. He started 25th, finished 20th and held 18.0 average running position. So he was slightly better than his final finishing position. Over the past 2 seasons in the #3 car, he have compiled 18.0 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 78.8 driver rating. He was stronger in 2014 in the #3 car. He posted a stronger performance, but to be fair he started all the way up in 4th starting position, so his overall performance may be a bit inflated. I have a feeling Austin Dillon will have a pretty good year. He came on strong in second half of last season and showed similar promise in the first two races of 2016. Question is can he keep it up? We will see!
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is easily one of the favorites headed into this weekend's race at Vegas. He was the driver to beat last weekend at Atlanta and should be one of the drivers to beat once again. Last season at Vegas, he was very strong. He started 18th, finished 1st and posted an stout 4.0 average running position. He was very strong all race long and only had competition he had was Jimmie Johnson probably. Over the past 3 races at Vegas, he have compiled 17.0 average finish with 7.7 average running position and 111.3 driver rating. He won here last season. But blew an engine and finished 41st in 2014. He have been very good here overall though. Since the 2008 seasons (8 races), he have compiled 6 Top 12 finishes. Including 3 Top 11 finishes over his past 4 starts, dating back to the 2012 season. He should be on everyone fantasy radar this week.
5-Kasey Kahne: If you used Kahne at Atlanta, then you probably got burned. I cannot say that I am shocked by that. He ran poorly all race long and eventually managed an 23rd-place finish. Which was probably better than he ran for most of the race. Yeah it was pretty bad overall for him. I think he will be better at Vegas though. How much better is the question though. Last season here, he was very strong until he got into Carl Edwards after a restart. Prior to that point, he was running top 5 all day long. He ended that day in 17th place with a banged up racecar. Over the past 3 seasons at Vegas, he have compiled 9.0 average finish with 7.7 average running position and 110.7 driver rating. His RP and driver rating are pretty impressive. However that stat line is a bit overrated tbh. Mainly because how stout he was in the 2013 event. Started 4th, finished 2nd, led 114 laps and posted 3.0 average running position with 138.3 driver rating. Over the past 2 seasons at Vegas, he have compiled 12.5 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 96.8 driver rating. Still pretty solid overall, but I don't get the feeling he will be that good this weekend. Top 15 is in my opinion his ceiling.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is a solid fantasy choice for this weekend race at Vegas. Even though he struggled at Atlanta last week. He spent majority of the second half of the race a lap down after being lapped. Last season at Vegas, he was pretty good all race long and finished 5th. He posted 7.0 average running position and 108.7 driver rating. He always been pretty reliable at Vegas. Over the past 3 seasons here, he have compiled 10.7 average finish with 10.7 average running position and 94.6 driver rating. So he haven't been great over the past three seasons, but still pretty respectable though. He started off his career at Vegas farily solid with 3 Top 10 finishes. However over the past 7 races since, he have only accounted 2 Top 10 finishes. More worrisome, he have finished 12th-20th in 3 of the past 4 races. On the plus side, his best-career performance came in last season's event where he posted his 2nd-best finish and career-best RP (7.0) and career-best driver rating (108.7). In fact, he never posted an driver rating beyond 92.6 before last season's event. And JGR is much faster at this time this season than it was last season.
13-Casey Mears: Mears is someone that surprised me at Atlanta, I didn't really expect him to be as strong as he was. He started inside the top 15 and finished inside the top 15. That is pretty impressive for a small team like the 13 team who have primary been a low to mid 20 type finisher in prior seasons on the intermediate racetracks. Over the past three seasons, he have compiled 27.3 average finish with 26.7 average running position and 58.6 driver rating. In last season's event, he had his best race at Vegas since the 2008 race (with Hendrick Motorsports). In last season's race, he started 17th (best start since 2008), finished 25th (tied for best finish since 2008), had 25.0 average running position (best RP since 2008) and 68.8 driver rating (best driver rating since 2008). You see a trend there across the board, don't you? I believe the 13 team will be even better this season. Can we expect a similar performance to last week's? No I don't but I think this 13 team is getting better each season and I believe they are capbale of top 20 this week. We will see though. I will make that call after practice though.
16-Greg Biffle: The Biffle and RFR came out swining at Atlanta and looked pretty good all weekend long. He finished 13th at Atlanta and have given us fantasy players so hope that RFR have returned to respectable status. However I am not jumping on the bandwagon quite yet. I need to see how they perform out west and then I will make that call. He was pretty good last season here too. Not great by any means, but decent overall. In last season's event, he started 16th, finished 14th and posted 16.0 average running position. Over the past 3 seasons at Vegas, he have compiled 17.7 average finish with 20.3 average running position and 68.9 driver rating. His numbers are little better than that though. He performed very poorly in the 2014 event. In that race, he started 25th, finished 22nd, had 27.0 average running position and 52.5 driver rating. How bad was that race? That was his worst career start (25th), 2nd worst-career finish (22nd- minus his debut with blown engine), worst career RP (minus his debut) and worst career driver rating (minus his debut). However he have two top 17 finishes over the past three seasons, so there plenty of hope for a decent run out of the Biff this weekend.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Before the season started, I said if RFR can develop then Stenhouse would be the main beneficial driver. He showed that at Atlanta and finished 10th. RFR clearly have made some gains as a whole and it will be interesting if they can keep it up. Last season at Vegas, Ricky wasn't that good though. He was terrible actually! He started started 31st, finished 29th and posted 27.0 average running position. He wasn't much better in the 2014 event where he finished 27th and posted 20.0 average running position and 68.8 driver ating. To be fair, he started 6th for this event in 2014. So that probably helped padding his performance for that event. He had his best career race in 2013 in his debut at this track. In that event, he started 7th, finished 18th and posted 13.0 average running position and 83.5 driver rating. So he was pretty solid in that race. Like with Biff, I am not willing to jump back on board with RFR yet. However I am going to have my eye on them during the next couple races.
18-Kyle Busch: Kyle Busch is off to great start to the season in 2016 an should keep it up at his hometown racetrack of Vegas! He missed last season's race, but that won't matter. JGR have fast cars and Busch is hot right now. Last week at Atlanta, he never really got to show how good he was until late in the event because he had to start dead last. He showed some muscle on those restarts late, so there is no worries about him. Over the past 2 Vegas races, he have compiled 7.5 average finish with 6.5 average running position and 113.3 driver rating. He started off his career very well here with 5 Top 11 finishes in his first 6 races. 3 of those 5 finishes ended inside the top 5 (including a win 2009 event from the pole). However over his past 5 races at Vegas (since 2010 race - missed last season race), he have only managed 1 Top 10 finish and that was in 2013 where he finished 4th. In 2014 event, he was very strong and led 52 laps. But he only could finish 11th in that race. Regardless, I expect him to be tough to beat this weekend. I think JGR will have some fast cars once again and all be least top 10 capable.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards was strong at Atlanta and finished 5th. He should be in for another great weekend at Vegas as well. I consider this as one of his very best racetracks (much like Atlanta is). In last season's event, he was running inside the top 5 before wrecking with Kasey Kahne after a restart. Unlike Kahne, he was not so lucky and had go to garage to get reapired. He should have a great chance at rebounding this weekend though. Over the past 3 races here, he have compiled 17.3 average finish with 13.7 average running position and 89.1 driver rating. Prior to finishing 42nd last season, he had wheeled off 5 straight Top 5 finishes at Vegas. Including a win in the 2011 event. Overall 6 of the past 9 races at Vegas for Edwards have ended inside the top 6. Do you really want to bet against him with that type of effectiveness? I sure wouldn't!
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth had a rotten day at Atlanta overall. He was very strong to start the race and probably had the car to beat all day long. However around the mid-way point, he got black flagged after improper fueling and miscommunication with crew cost him two laps. He never rebound, even though he had one of the best cars at Atlanta. He was also had a pretty good car in last season's event at Vegas. He wasn't overly great, but still top 10 driver. He started 6th, finished 9th and posted 12.0 average running position with 92.6 driver rating. Over the past 3 races at Vegas, he have compiled 6.7 average finish with 9.7 average running position and 102.0 driver rating. He haven't super competition up front over the past two seasons, with only being just a top 10 driver in both races. However he won this race in 2013 and probably had the 2nd-best car to Kasey Kahne (who finished 2nd). Overall Vegas always been a very good racetrack for Kenseth as he holds an career average finish of 11.8 and have won here 3 times. Overall 5 of the past 6 races have ended inside the top 11. Expect least another top 10 finish from Kenseth this weekend!
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney should be a decent fantasy option in selected fantasy leagues and ran very well last weekend at Atlanta. Of course he was involved in a wreck late in the race and derailed his strong finish to the race. He ended in 25th place when the dust finally settled. Even though he was up inside the top 15 for most of the afternoon though. He have one career start at Vegas and that was last season. However he had a engine issue in that race (I remember because I started him in few of my leagues). So we really don't have any data to go on that is relevant to us. So not a whole lot to say about him, other than he probably will have a car capble of finishing inside the top 15. It should be noted, before having issues last season he was running around the 15th place position.
22-Joey Logano: Logano didn't look great in practice at Atlanta, but he sure showed up in the race and made his way up to the top 5 in the race. However he got a pit road penalty (ran over the orange cone) that he never was able to recover from with the lack of cautions. He was strong at Vegas last season and had a top 5 to top 10 car all race long. He started 2nd, finished 10th, led 47 laps and posted 8.0 average running position. He started off the race very strong and led number of laps. However early last season, it seemed like that Logano would fade late in races more often than not. Hence why he didn't get a better finish than 10th. Over the past 3 Vegas races, he have compiled 8.7 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 98.3 driver rating. He started on the pole in the 2014 race and finished 4th. That remains his lone top 5 finish at this racetrack. He had finishes of 10th and 12th in 2015 and 2013. His only other top 12 finish came back in 2010 in his 2nd career start with at Vegas where he finished 6th place. Should be noted, his last two starts (2014 and 2015), he have recorded his best two performance based on the numbers. That is usually a good sign for things to come.
24-Chase Elliott: I debated weather to even list Elliott in my fantasy preview, since there no real data on him at this place. Sure we have last week data, but that is only one race. He ran very well last week and finished 8th. I was impressed, but I wouldn't expect that type of performance on a weekly basis though. Realistically you can expect a finish somewhere in the teens-area, I said last week somewhere in the mid to high teens. But I will give him the benefit of the doubt and say lower to mid teens instead. Like I said, there is not a lot to go on. So my take on Chase is pretty limited overall. Once we get more data, we can get a better idea about him. For now, it more of a guess game how he will do this weekend.
27-Paul Menard: Paul looked lost for most of the weekend at Atlanta and came away with a pretty decent 18th-place finish. I was shocked that he finished that well, since he ran around 25th place for the most part. Not exactly something I want to hear, if I was considering him for Vegas. Even though he been impressive of late at this racetrack. Over the past 3 seasons at Vegas, he have compiled 8.3 average finish with 12.7 average running position and 93.1 driver rating. Menard had his worst performance to date since joining RCR in 2011 at Vegas. He tied his career worst finish with the organization of 12th place finish and posted his worst overall performance with only a 16.0 average running position and 80.9 driver rating. Of course prior to finishing 12th last season, he had 3 straight top 5 finishes.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch looked pretty good at Atlanta from the pole and led some laps early on, before fading to latter part of the top 10 later in the race. He missed last season's race at Vegas because of being suspended by Nascar. Over the past 2 Vegas races, he have compiled 23.0 average finish with 22.0 average running position and 65.6 driver rating. Really the only race that is relevant to Kurt's fantasy value is the 2014 event, since that is his lone start since joining SHR. In that event, he started 23rd, finished 26th and posted 22.0 average running position. Regardless he have never performed well at Vegas. In 14 career starts, he have only managed 3 Top 10 finishes (best career finish was 3rd in 2005 - lone Top 8 finish as well). Overall he have accounted 1 Top 5, 3 Top 10s, 4 Top 15 finishes and only 7 total Top 20 finishes at Vegas. I think he will be better this time around at his hometrack, but man I don't like those stats one bit. Even though he have proven past stats can be thrown out the window sometimes.
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson is a great talent, but he run well when the team missed the setup on the car. That exactly what happened this past weekend at Atlanta. He was terrible on lap 1 and well never could get out of the early hole. Reminds me so much of the Charlotte race last season where he and teammate Jamie Mac sucked all race long. The results mirrored that race as well. Still I think he can rebound this weekend at Vegas. He was very good here last season and finished 8th in that event. He had a top 10 car all day long and finished there too. In 2 career races at Vegas, he have compiled 13.5 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 89.5 driver rating. He showed significant improves from year 1 to year 2 at Vegas. In his debut, he started 17th, finished 19th and posted 20.0 average running position and 76.6 driver rating. In last season event, he started 5th, finished 8th and posted 8.0 average running position and 102.3 driver rating. I think it will all depend on how CGR unload this weekend, weather or not Larson have any fantasy value. If he doesn't look good in practice, then I am not touching him.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson was impressive at Atlanta and ended up going to victory lane like I expected him to after practice. He now have a good chance of making it back-to-back wins, which is something that seems to be a common occurrence from the 48 early in the season. He may have had the best car in last season's event, but believe he got into the wall during the race and had to get repaired. If I recall correctly, he was already a lap down from pitting for a loose wheel. Over the past 2 races (prior to last season's race), he have compiled 6.0 average finish with 3.0 average running position and 124.3 driver rating. Prior to finishing 41st in last season's event, he have finished 6th or better in 4 of the past 5 races. But only twice did he finish inside the top 5 though. It should be noted, one of those 2 finishes resulted in wins (2010). Johnson is a 4-time Vegas winner, but his last one came in 2010. Actually all 4 of his wins came from 2005 to 2010 seasons (6-year span). I view Johnson as one of the heavy favorites headed into the weekend!
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr was impressive at Atlanta and should be back in the mix at Vegas. He was awesome here last season and I don't see any reason why he won't be again this week. Over the past 3 seasons at Vegas, he have compiled 8.0 average finish with 6.7 average running position and 105.8 driver rating. He finished 2nd in last season's race and was really strong all day long. Started 8th, finished 2nd and posted 6.0 average running position and 117.6 driver rating. He always been pretty good at Vegas though. He have finished 14th or better in 3 straight Vegas races and 2 of those 3 have ended inside the top 8. Overall he have 3 Top 8 finishes over his past 5 races here. In 10 career races at Vegas, he have finished 6 of those 10 races inside the top 15. Pretty good, don't you agree?
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr is probably the best-kept secret in fantasy racing and he proved that last week at Atlanta. I had a strong feeling he was going to be a factor all day long after watching him in practice. He finished 2nd. He should be very good at Vegas too. He have been one of the most reliable fantasy options in the game lately. In fact that exactly what he been. He leads the series with 5 straight Top 10 finishes (no other driver can say that). Over the past 3 Vegas races, he have compiled 4.3 average finish with 5.3 average running position and 116.4 driver rating. He have knock off back-to-back Top 5 finishes (only driver to accomplish this), 3 straight Top 10 finishes (only one of three driver to accomplish this) and have 7 top 10 finishes over his past 8 races (leads the series in that span). Since joining HMS in 2008 (8 races), he have compiled an series best 7.4 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 105.4 driver rating. Plain and simple, Dale Jr is one of the most underrated fantasy options headed into the weekend and most people don't even realize it!
I have a new twitter account (@JeffNathans18), as the last one kept getting hacked into. So if you would like to give it a follow than that is cool. Alright that's it for today's preview. Have a good week!
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
