Saturday, April 02, 2016

Fantasy Nascar Update (MVille)

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Fantasy Nascar Update -

A:

1. Joey Logano - Logano will start from the pole in Sunday's race. Joey have found plenty of success at Matinsville and there no reason why he cannot find more. While he haven't won yet, he have managed 3 Top 5 finishes over his previous 4 races. He should be considered a top 5 threat headed into the race. I wouldn't say he had the best car in any of the practices, but I think him starting from the pole will be give him a sizable advantage. Especially when it comes to pitting. In practice, I thought he was pretty good overall. I would expect a similar performance to last fall. Lead the race for awhile, then settle inside the top 5 somewhere.

2. Denny Hamlin - I thought Hamlin had one of the fastest cars in practice on Saturday! Not only does he have a great car, but he also starting from the 8th starting position. Then add-in his impressive track history, we get an monster fantasy pick. I find it very hard to bet against him this weekend. In fact, I would consider him the favorite to win at Martinsville. He is everything you want in fantasy pick. A great combo of speed, starting position and track history.

3. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch have not won a grandfather clock yet in the Cup Series, but I think that could change in the near future. He already have won a grandfather clock on Saturday and will look to double-down. He had a very fast car in practice and posted some really strong lap times in final practice. Busch have scored 4 Top 5 finishes this season and I think he makes it number 5 when the checkers wave on Sunday. He is on my short-list of drivers who could find themselves in victory lane on Sunday afternoon.

4. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson looked like crap on Friday and qualified in mid-pack. Which isn't uncommon for the 48 this season. More often than not, he have started mid-pack in 2016. However he have always found his way to the front and contend for the win. I don't think this weekend will be any difference. He wasn't good in qualifying, but he looked pretty solid in practice though. He may not have the car to beat, but definitely have some top 5 potential. It may take awhile, but I would expect to see Jimmie fighting for the win before Sunday's race is said and done. Personally I have Johnson finishing somewhere around 3rd or so. He looked really good on the longer runs too!

5. Kevin Harvick -  Harvick usually isn't this far down, but he will fine during the race. He will start from the 19th starting position and should move his way up through the field on Sunday. He have a fast car, but I don't think it is good enough to win though. After while, I expect him to settle in around 5th or 6th place. That is the area that, I would expect him to eventually finish in. To me, Harvick holds less fantasy value for a few reasons and that is the main factor in a lower ranking. Personally I believe, he isn't useable in most fantasy formats this week. Not because he doesn't have a quality car. But because he is either isn't worth the price or will have too many other great performances this season. Save him for the intermiedate racetracks is my advice.

Other Options - Matt  Kenseth, Kurt Busch and Dale Jr

B:

1. Martin Truex Jr: Truex once again looks really strong in practice, but he haven't scored a top 10 finish since Atlanta. It starting to make me wonder, if we can trust the 78 yet or should we wait to pull the trigger. Truex have a fast car, so I think he can make up inside the top 10 and probably the top 5. Question is can he stay there and finish up front? I don't know. However he did finish 6th in both events in 2015, so not like he doesn't know how to finish well at Martinsville. Personally I expect a finish somewhere around 6th-9th place probably. Given, Truex does not have any issues during the race. I thought he had one of the best cars in final practice for anyone who was wondering!

2. Ryan Newman - This is the best, I have seen Ryan Newman this season in practice. He starting up front (from 5th position) and looked pretty good in practice. His lap times were solid in both sessions on Saturday and should be considered a top 10 driver headed into the race. Newman have posted inconsistent results this season, but the RCR gang seems to have found some speed this week as a whole. That is encouraging to see, since short-tracks aren't considered this organization's primary strength. Usually when Newman looks like anything beyond a top 15 car, then it is a good sign for the race. I have finishing in latter part of the top 10 on Sunday!

3. Carl Edwards - I haven't been impressed with Edwards in practice or qualifying this weekend. However I am not too worried about the 19 team, as I am sure they'll fix him up and get him up towards the front. As his three teammates are looking really good so far at Martinsville. Headed into the race, I view Edwards a low-end Top 10 driver/high-end Top 15 driver. He have some work to do, but I think we will see the 19 car finish somewhere around 10th or 12th though.

4. Paul Menard - Much like Ryan Newman, Menard also have looked pretty good all weekend long. He will start from the 4th starting position and will try to have his best run of the season come Sunday. He showed some speed in practice and should be able to least contend for a top 15 finish based what I have seen so far. Menard also have 3 Top 15 finishes over his previous 4 races at Martinsville, so that should give fantasy players something to fall back on. Honestly I been little surprise with Menard, I didn't really see him qualifying or practicing quite as good as he have. Regardless I think he can have his best run of the season on Sunday afternoon.

5. Kasey Kahne - Kasey arguably had his best practice sessions of the season at Martinsville on Saturday and qualified 2nd as well. It hard to deny that Kahne is primed for a solid top 10 run on Sunday, however it also hard to overlook his results this season as well. I think there a lot of potential with Kahne as a fantasy option, but I also think there a lot of risk too. Headed into the race, I view him as a top 15 driver and that pretty much it. Another thing that worries me is that, he never really made any long runs in final practice. He made a 13-lap run to start final practice, but never made anything longer than that.

Other Options - Kyle Larson, Jamie Mac and AJ Dinger

C:

1. Brain Vickers - Vickers have looked really good all weekend long and will start from the 3rd starting position. Vickers have the speed and experience at Martinsville to make a solid fantasy option in all formats. This is the best he have looked all season behind the wheel of the No.14 car and should be considered least a top 15  driver. If not a top 10 driver headed into Sunday's race. Few weeks ago at ACS, he posted a season-high 11th place finish. He have a chance to improve upon that mark. Not to mention, Vickers have a history of having success on the short tracks in Nascar.

2. Chase Elliott - Elliott didn't have much fun in last season's event, he is hoping for this time around to be much more fulfilling. So far, he have looked much more improved from a year ago. Elliott have shown promise with his No.24 car and could definitely make some noise before the Sunday afternoon is over. Elliott have consistently outproduced our standards for on a weekly basis it seems and I wouldn't be shocked, if he does so again this weekend. Headed into the race, I view him as a top 20 driver with top 15 upside.

3. Ryan Blaney - Blaney haven't been as impressive as his rookie counterpart, but I still think that Blaney and the 21 Wood brother team will make some noise on Sunday. Blaney have been pretty impressive all season and should contine at Martinsville. My only concern is the Wood brother inactiveness at the short tracks. Obviously it won't be too much of a concern once they get into the race and into a rhythm. But it is a back of my mind, considering this team have had some bad luck this year and most of last year. Just a few thoughts. However I do think he get a top 20 out of the weekend though.

Twitter - @MattAleza