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Fantasy Nascar Preview -
1-JMac: JMac added another top 10 finish to his season, including 5 of the past 7 races. He will need a few more of them over the next couple weeks. As his teammate (Kyle Larson) found victory lane, which means he only holds an 15 points advantage over Ryan Newman for the final spot. JMac have never been that good at Darlington, but he has gotten a lot of consistent results recently though. The Ganassi cars are also running better than they were at start of the season. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 15.0 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 81.9 driver rating. He been solid over the past two seasons here overall, I would say. He finished 14th last season and was a top 15 overall. The usually from him. Something I noticed about him at Darlington? He have led least 13 laps in 5 of his 10 career races. None, since the 2011 season. Entering this weekend, he have finished 8th place in 3 straight races. I think he will be good this weekend have good top 12 to top 15 potential. He may even sneak out a top 10 finish, if things goes right for him. Are those realist expectations? No, probably not. But I wouldn't rule it out either. Chip Ganassi Racing running well enough to have both cars finish inside the top 10 on a weekly basis. As we have seen in the recent weeks.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is having a pretty good season (better than Logano's, not many expected that) and have a lot of momentum entering the weekend. He have finished 3 of the past 4 races inside the top 3. The only race, he didn't? When he wrecked out at Bristol (a few races ago). So momentum wise, he have a lot going for him. He also been very good at Darlington since debuting here in 2009 with Hendrick (in #25 car). Over the past two seasons here, he have compiled 9.5 average finish with 4.5 average running position and 119.0 driver rating. In last season's race, he was very strong. He led 196 laps on his way to an 2nd place finish from the pole and an a race-high 137.1 driver rating. He also was strong here in 2014 as well. But I believe he had an issue late in the race and got some damage to his car, that sent him down the running order. If my memory is correct, both of the Penske cars had issues in the final 20 laps of that event. He have finished 4 of his first 7 cup races here inside the top 7. I should note that, he should have won this race last season and I wouldn't be shocked if he went to victory lane on Sunday night. Headed into the race, I view him as a top 5 fantasy pick and someone you should count on to be at the front when the checkers waves.
3-Austin Dillon: It haven't been a major topic last year or this year, but when is Austin Dillon going to win his first cup race? With Larson winning at Michigan, I think that is going to bought up more often. If you are hoping its happens at Darlington, then you are sadly going to be disappointed. I don't consider it his best track, in fact it probably more towards the bottom. Over his first two starts here, he have compiled 16.5 average finish with 20.0 average running position and 70.2 driver rating. At this point in Austin's career, we have a good idea of what tracks he have done well at and Darlington really isn't one of them. He only have made two starts, but he only have completed 7% of the laps inside the top 15 in those races. While it a small simple size, Dillon just haven't performed well. His driver rating also isn't that good. A good weekend for Dillon consists of an performance just inside the top 15. Honestly all I expect from Dillon is a solid low-highend to middle teen performance (and finish) from him. Which is about 14th-17th place range when breaking it down. If you are looking for a safe bet, then Dillon should be just that. If you are looking for least a top 10 contender, then you better keep looking.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick once again was very good at Michigan, but had settle for an top 5 finish. He was good at times at Michigan, but his car just wasn't right towards the end. He will move onto Darlington, a track that he have been the best in the series at recently. Over the past two races, he have compiled 3.0 average finish with 2.5 average running position and 136.2 driver raring. In fact, over that two-race span he have led the most laps and posted the most-fast laps. On top of being the only driver to complete all of the laps inside the top 15. Also Harvick is the only driver in the series to post 3 straight Top 5 finishes at this track currently. He have posted 5 Top 11 finishes over his past 7 starts at this place. And have led in 4 of past 6 races. Including leading least 44 laps in least 3 of the previous 5. Momentum wise, he have been good as anyone. As he have finished 5 of the past 6 Sprint Cup races inside the top 6. If we take out the Watkins Glen's race, he have posted 3 straight top 5 finishes this season. While leading in his past two races, in Bristol and Michigan. Harvick should be considered one of the heavy favorites headed into this weekend's race!
5-Kasey Kahne: Kasey Kahne is coming off a good race at Michigan. He wasn't anything super special, but HMS as a whole found something at the Chicago test I have heard. Their counterparts at Ganassi Racing also said they saw improvements with their test. You have to believe, they used some of that information at Michigan. Or was it the product of the low-downforce package? Or maybe a combo of both? Either way, Kahne needs to win to make the chase. Will he? I highly doubt it personally, but who knows honestly. He been okay at Darlington in the past. Over the past two races here, he have compiled 24.5 average finish with 17.0 average running position and 83.0 driver rating. He finished 12th in last season's race. He wasn't ever a race-winning threat, but he was a top 15 driver though. In fact, he have finished 3 of his past 5 races at Darlington inside the top 12. Even better? He have led at least 4 laps in 4 of his past 5 races at this track. Also, he has compiled 7 Top 5 starts over his 13-race career here. Solid, but he have started 15th or worse in his previous two starts. He also have good momentum entering the weekend too. He have finished inside the top 15 in 3 of his past 4 Sprint Cup races this season. Headed into the weekend, I expect nothing beyond the top 15 finish from him.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is really starting to roll right now and has more momentum than anybody else in the series (at the moment). He is becoming much more reliable, as I figure he would be as the season goes on. He was the same way last season as well. Hamlin has knocked off 6 straight Top 10 finishes and 7 in the past 10 races. Even better over his 6-race Top 10 streak? He have qualified 6th or better for all 6 races. Including qualifying inside the top 4 in 5 of his last 6 races overall. So he has a lot going for him. This isn't even taking into account his track record here. He been very good for quite awhile at Darlington. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 11.0 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 103.6 driver rating. In 12 career races, he have finished 10th or better in 10 of those races. Impressive, right? While, you haven't seen anything until you dig deeper. Over the past 6 races here, he have posted 4 Top 3 finishes. With 3 of the past 4 races ending in 3rd or better. With half of his career starts (5 of 10) ending inside the top 3 overall. When you combine: Momentum, speed, strong qualifier and awesome track record, you get some special potential!
14-Tony Stewart: Smoke was really hot there for a good stench of races and finishing up inside the top 10. But then Bristol came and he hit a brick wall. Struggled pretty bad and finished well outside of the top 30. Then came to Michigan and struggled again and finished 21st. Have he just had no speed? Or he just lost his momentum? Either way, he doesn't hold the same value he did at Watkins Glenn and prior to that. He have performed well at Darlington in the past though. Over the past 2 races here, he have compiled 12.0 average finish with 17.5 average running position and 82.9 driver rating. He was pretty solid in last season's 15th place finish. And was better than his finish would lead you to believe. He was closer to the top 10 (performance wise). He struggled in 2014, even though he finished 9th. He got track position late in the race and he was able to keep it and finish respectably. Otherwise, he was headed straight to about an 20th place finish. However, he have 5 straight Top 15 finishes at this track though. With 3 of those 5 races ending inside the top 10. Headed into the weekend, I would view him as a low to middle teen type of driver. So a finish in the 12th-16th place is likely for him.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy and JGR struggled pretty bad at Michigan and it probably had a lot to do with the race package. They also struggled noticeably at the first Michigan race as well. I think they will be back to their old ways at Darlington though. Rowdy have been very good at this track throughout his career. Over the past 2 races here, he have compiled 6.5 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 100.9 driver rating. Kyle been great here, since joining JGR in 2008. In 7 races, he have posted 7 Top 11 finishes. Including 5 Top 7 finishes over his past 6 races. With 4 straight Top 7 finishes over his past 4 starts at this track, dating back to the 2012 season. Over the past two seasons, he have posted finishes of 6th and 7th. Another great aspect of Kyle's potential I like? He have led in 7 of his 8 races with JGR here. Kyle will be a strong performer this weekend and you can almost expect him to be up battling for the win.
19-Carl Edwards: Much like his teammates above, Edwards also has a great track record at Darlington. In 12 career starts, he have posted 11.5 average finish in 13 races so far. He have done pretty well here recently too. Over the past two races here, he have compiled 7.0 average finish with 20.5 average running position and 87.6 driver rating. He won this race last season, but only led about 13 laps of that race. He probably stole that win from Keselowski when the last caution came out. In 2014, he wasn't that competitive and finished 13th. To be fair, he was still with RFR though. They were under performing, so Edwards potential was limited! Overall, he have finished 5 of his past 7 races here inside the top 7. Including 4 of his past 5 races here inside the top 7. Edwards should be least considered an top 10 threat and probably even more.
20-Matt Kenseth: Let's keep the strong track record trend keep going here, because Kenseth also have been good here throughout his Cup career. However, Kenseth is coming off one of his worst races of the season at Michigan. But I feel like he will rebound fairly nice though. He been good here recently. Over the past 2 races here, he have compiled 12.5 average finish with 17.5 average running position and 93.9 driver rating. He have posted finishes of 4th and 21st. He wasn't much of an factor when it came down it last season here and finished 21st, after starting from 17th. In 2014, he was very strong and finished 4th. He led 13 laps in that race and was top 5 good for that event. In 2013, he actually went to victory lane for the first time at this track. Not the first time have won success. Over the past 10 races here (dating back 2003), he have posted 7 Top 10 finishes overall. Kenseth isn't new to finding success at Darlington and I am sure he will be up inside the top 10 on Sunday night. But I don't know how much fantasy value he will have. This season it seems like he is nothing more than an top 10 guy. He have from time to time ran inside the top 5, but not consistent enough though.
21-Ryan Blaney: I thought Blaney was gonna be a major factor at Michigan and he did exactly that. And he got the finish he deserved too. At Bristol, he had one of his best races but got robbed of a good finish though. So I think he a bit more even now. What can you expect from him at Darlington? I am not real sure. He was just junk here last year and faded quickly through the field. Of course, he has much more experience in a Cup car now. So I expect him to be vastly improved, but what is his possible potential? Hard to say honestly! If he can go and limit his mistakes, then I say he will definitely contend for a top 15 finish and maybe challenge for a top 10. Blaney big problem this season have been staying out of trouble. For some reason, the 21 team have often put themselves in a hole. At Darlington, that seems to often lead to poor finishes. Remember this is a driver track too.
22-Joey Logano: Logano for the second straight races end up being a disappointment for fantasy players. At tracks that he suppose to be one of the heavy favorites. He should have a good chance to rebound at Darlington though. Over the past two races here, he have compiled 19.5 average finish with 7.5 average running position and 101.3 driver rating. In last season's race, he was very good and was a top 5 contender. He led 29 laps on his way to that 4th place finish. He wasn't quite as good as teammate Keselowski's but he could stay with the Gibbs bunch and Harvick though. In 2014 (it was held in the spring time just for the record - in case you don't have a good memory), he finished 35th. He had issues with 14 to go, after being a top 5 to top 10 contender for majority of that race. Actually led 37 laps from the 2nd starting spot. Just poor luck is all. In his debut with Penske in 2013, he just wasn't competitive at Darlington. It should be noted, Logano's career with Penske didn't take off until after the Charlotte's race that season. He was still finding his footing with his team at that point in 2013. Headed into the weekend, I would call him a boarderline top 5 driver with some winning potential.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott may have let his best chance to go to victory slip past him for the second time this season at Michigan. Hard to not feel bad for this kid, but trust me he is gonna win sooner or later. Will it come at Darlington this weekend? Maybe. I think Darlington is right in his wheelhouse in terms of his driving style. At this place, the driver is more in control. You run right up against that wall. Elliott is usually pretty good at keeping his car off the wall and stuff. Also, he won't make too many mistakes either. On top of that, he usually runs his best on the intermediate tracks. And Darlington does qualify as an intermediate racetrack. Even if it is a ''odd'' track at 1.33 miles long. Headed into the weekend, I would pin Elliott as a top 15 driver with major upside to contend for a top 10 finish. Maybe even more!
31-Ryan Newman: Ryan Newman is in a tough spot right now. With only two races to go, he needs to gain 15 points on the final chase spot. But if he doesn't make the chase, it probably goes back to him having a poor stench of races recently. Over the past 5 Sprint Cup races this season, he have finished 16th or worse in 4 of those races. That's not very Ryan Newman-like. He usually a consistent low-teen finisher. Truth be told, RCR just doesn't have the speed right now. I think we saw that last week at Michigan. He been good at Darlington though. Over the past 2 races here, he have compiled 11.5 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 87.0 driver rating. He have posted finishes of 13th and 10th over the past two seasons here. In fact, Newman have compiled 8 Top 10 finishes over his past 11 races at this track! Including, 3 straight Top 13 finishes this track overall. But no finish better than 10th place since finishing 5th in 2011 at this track. I really like Newman this weekend overall. He needs good finishes and I expect his team to do everything they can to get him inside the top 10 the next two weeks.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch wasn't ever a contender at Michigan, but he wasn't super terrible either. Just wasn't that good overall. Being good for Kurt Busch this season have been being a top 10 contender and his starting position didn't do him any favors. How will he do at Darlington? I think he will be top 10 good like most race weekends this season. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 18.5 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 95.7 driver rating. He doesn't have best track record, when looking at his numbers recently. He finished 6th at this track last season, but that's his only top 10 over his previous 5 races. And only 2 Top 10 finishes over his past 11 races this track. He posted 4 top 7 finishes over 5 races span from 2002 to 2004, but not much since though. More recently, he have finished 16th or worse in 4 of his past 6 races at Darlington. With that said, I think past stats are misleading. We cannot base everything off the ''past'', it called the past for the reason. I legitimately think he can be a top 10 contender. Worst case for him, he finishes just outside of the top 10.
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson is prove, if you run well consistently good things will eventually happen. For him, he led to him finally going to victory lane. Bad news for the chase field though. As he has a lot of great track coming up and one of them is the next one on the schedule. He only have made two starts at Darlington, but have made the most out of them. Over his first two starts, he have compiled 9.0 average finish with 13.5 average running position and 90.7 driver rating. In his rookie season (in 2014), he wasn't bad at all. He just had a better finish than he performed. He finished 8th place and posted 81.9 driver rating. Last season, he was vastly improved and finished 10th. However, he was much better than that though. He was top 5 or 6 good for much of the second half of the race. In fact, he was running inside the top 5 before a late caution dropped him in the running order. With Chip Ganassi Racing unloading faster cars, I think Larson has a good shot at going for back-to-back wins. I doubt it happens, but you never know. Realistically, I have him as top 10 contender entering the weekend.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is coming off one of his best races of the season (or least in quite awhile). Johnson probably could have won at Michigan, but he had a tire issue in second half of the race. He still finished top 10 though. Johnson now have back-to-back top 10 finishes for the first time since Martinsville and Texas (back in April). He also have posted 4 Top 12 finishes over his past 6 races this season. So he has some momentum on his side, too. Darlington always been fairly good to Johnson. Over the past two races here, he have compiled 11.0 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 90.8 driver rating. He have posted 19th and 3rd in his past 2 races at this track! He have posted 4 top 3 finishes over his past 7 races. From career standpoint, he have been one of the best drivers in the series. In 17 career starts, he have posted 9.0 average finish with 9 Top 4 finishes. A good portion of those came between 2003 and 2007, but as I mention he has 4 Top 4 finishes over his past 7 races, as well. It too early for me to jump back on the Johnson's express, but I am starting to feel he may be getting back on track. If that's true, then he could be a solid option in the incoming weeks. For now, I view him nothing more than an top 10 fantasy option though.
78-Martin Truex Jr: You don't even have to watch the races anymore, to know if Truex found bad luck. It almost like someone personally doesn't want him to finish well. The real funny thing is? He finds new ways to finish poorly! At Michigan? The jack came down and damage his car. The jack, his own team killed his chances! Bad enough he has bad luck on his side on the track, now his pit crew is chipping in. Not good for him. Doesn't take away the fact he was fast once again. He been very fast all season long, however time and time again he finds ways into trouble. He been good at Darlington. Over the past two races here, he have compiled 18.0 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 88.8 driver rating. He finished 9th in last season here, but was a top 5 contender for good portion of the race. Not sure why, but just before the final caution his car was going south very quickly. I would assume it was because his lost handling. If that caution didn't come out, he may have finished outside of the top 10. He finished 27th in 2014. But he have posted 4 Top 12 finishes over his past 5 races here. Including 3 finishes of 10th or better. Overall, he have finished 14th or better in 8 of his 10 career races. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 10 driver with upside to be a top 5 threat. As usual, his bad luck will drag his fantasy value down.
88-Jeff Gordon: Jeff Gordon will return to behind the wheel of the No.88 car at Darlington. He always have been as strong contender at Darlington and should be a good bet once again. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 11.5 average finish with 6.0 average running position and 108.5 driver rating. Gordon have been a force at this track throughout his career. Over his past 11 races, he have posted 8 Top 5 finishes. That's too deep for a track, we only go to once a year. So let's dial it back some. Over the past 3 seasons, he have posted finishes of 16th, 7th and 3rd. In 2014, he was top 5 strong and posted an 120.2 driver rating. He should be a solid bet to be a top 10 contender on Sunday night. Watch practice, but I am not too concerned about him. He been running better in recent cup races as well.
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Fantasy Nascar Preview -
1-JMac: JMac added another top 10 finish to his season, including 5 of the past 7 races. He will need a few more of them over the next couple weeks. As his teammate (Kyle Larson) found victory lane, which means he only holds an 15 points advantage over Ryan Newman for the final spot. JMac have never been that good at Darlington, but he has gotten a lot of consistent results recently though. The Ganassi cars are also running better than they were at start of the season. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 15.0 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 81.9 driver rating. He been solid over the past two seasons here overall, I would say. He finished 14th last season and was a top 15 overall. The usually from him. Something I noticed about him at Darlington? He have led least 13 laps in 5 of his 10 career races. None, since the 2011 season. Entering this weekend, he have finished 8th place in 3 straight races. I think he will be good this weekend have good top 12 to top 15 potential. He may even sneak out a top 10 finish, if things goes right for him. Are those realist expectations? No, probably not. But I wouldn't rule it out either. Chip Ganassi Racing running well enough to have both cars finish inside the top 10 on a weekly basis. As we have seen in the recent weeks.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is having a pretty good season (better than Logano's, not many expected that) and have a lot of momentum entering the weekend. He have finished 3 of the past 4 races inside the top 3. The only race, he didn't? When he wrecked out at Bristol (a few races ago). So momentum wise, he have a lot going for him. He also been very good at Darlington since debuting here in 2009 with Hendrick (in #25 car). Over the past two seasons here, he have compiled 9.5 average finish with 4.5 average running position and 119.0 driver rating. In last season's race, he was very strong. He led 196 laps on his way to an 2nd place finish from the pole and an a race-high 137.1 driver rating. He also was strong here in 2014 as well. But I believe he had an issue late in the race and got some damage to his car, that sent him down the running order. If my memory is correct, both of the Penske cars had issues in the final 20 laps of that event. He have finished 4 of his first 7 cup races here inside the top 7. I should note that, he should have won this race last season and I wouldn't be shocked if he went to victory lane on Sunday night. Headed into the race, I view him as a top 5 fantasy pick and someone you should count on to be at the front when the checkers waves.
3-Austin Dillon: It haven't been a major topic last year or this year, but when is Austin Dillon going to win his first cup race? With Larson winning at Michigan, I think that is going to bought up more often. If you are hoping its happens at Darlington, then you are sadly going to be disappointed. I don't consider it his best track, in fact it probably more towards the bottom. Over his first two starts here, he have compiled 16.5 average finish with 20.0 average running position and 70.2 driver rating. At this point in Austin's career, we have a good idea of what tracks he have done well at and Darlington really isn't one of them. He only have made two starts, but he only have completed 7% of the laps inside the top 15 in those races. While it a small simple size, Dillon just haven't performed well. His driver rating also isn't that good. A good weekend for Dillon consists of an performance just inside the top 15. Honestly all I expect from Dillon is a solid low-highend to middle teen performance (and finish) from him. Which is about 14th-17th place range when breaking it down. If you are looking for a safe bet, then Dillon should be just that. If you are looking for least a top 10 contender, then you better keep looking.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick once again was very good at Michigan, but had settle for an top 5 finish. He was good at times at Michigan, but his car just wasn't right towards the end. He will move onto Darlington, a track that he have been the best in the series at recently. Over the past two races, he have compiled 3.0 average finish with 2.5 average running position and 136.2 driver raring. In fact, over that two-race span he have led the most laps and posted the most-fast laps. On top of being the only driver to complete all of the laps inside the top 15. Also Harvick is the only driver in the series to post 3 straight Top 5 finishes at this track currently. He have posted 5 Top 11 finishes over his past 7 starts at this place. And have led in 4 of past 6 races. Including leading least 44 laps in least 3 of the previous 5. Momentum wise, he have been good as anyone. As he have finished 5 of the past 6 Sprint Cup races inside the top 6. If we take out the Watkins Glen's race, he have posted 3 straight top 5 finishes this season. While leading in his past two races, in Bristol and Michigan. Harvick should be considered one of the heavy favorites headed into this weekend's race!
5-Kasey Kahne: Kasey Kahne is coming off a good race at Michigan. He wasn't anything super special, but HMS as a whole found something at the Chicago test I have heard. Their counterparts at Ganassi Racing also said they saw improvements with their test. You have to believe, they used some of that information at Michigan. Or was it the product of the low-downforce package? Or maybe a combo of both? Either way, Kahne needs to win to make the chase. Will he? I highly doubt it personally, but who knows honestly. He been okay at Darlington in the past. Over the past two races here, he have compiled 24.5 average finish with 17.0 average running position and 83.0 driver rating. He finished 12th in last season's race. He wasn't ever a race-winning threat, but he was a top 15 driver though. In fact, he have finished 3 of his past 5 races at Darlington inside the top 12. Even better? He have led at least 4 laps in 4 of his past 5 races at this track. Also, he has compiled 7 Top 5 starts over his 13-race career here. Solid, but he have started 15th or worse in his previous two starts. He also have good momentum entering the weekend too. He have finished inside the top 15 in 3 of his past 4 Sprint Cup races this season. Headed into the weekend, I expect nothing beyond the top 15 finish from him.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is really starting to roll right now and has more momentum than anybody else in the series (at the moment). He is becoming much more reliable, as I figure he would be as the season goes on. He was the same way last season as well. Hamlin has knocked off 6 straight Top 10 finishes and 7 in the past 10 races. Even better over his 6-race Top 10 streak? He have qualified 6th or better for all 6 races. Including qualifying inside the top 4 in 5 of his last 6 races overall. So he has a lot going for him. This isn't even taking into account his track record here. He been very good for quite awhile at Darlington. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 11.0 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 103.6 driver rating. In 12 career races, he have finished 10th or better in 10 of those races. Impressive, right? While, you haven't seen anything until you dig deeper. Over the past 6 races here, he have posted 4 Top 3 finishes. With 3 of the past 4 races ending in 3rd or better. With half of his career starts (5 of 10) ending inside the top 3 overall. When you combine: Momentum, speed, strong qualifier and awesome track record, you get some special potential!
14-Tony Stewart: Smoke was really hot there for a good stench of races and finishing up inside the top 10. But then Bristol came and he hit a brick wall. Struggled pretty bad and finished well outside of the top 30. Then came to Michigan and struggled again and finished 21st. Have he just had no speed? Or he just lost his momentum? Either way, he doesn't hold the same value he did at Watkins Glenn and prior to that. He have performed well at Darlington in the past though. Over the past 2 races here, he have compiled 12.0 average finish with 17.5 average running position and 82.9 driver rating. He was pretty solid in last season's 15th place finish. And was better than his finish would lead you to believe. He was closer to the top 10 (performance wise). He struggled in 2014, even though he finished 9th. He got track position late in the race and he was able to keep it and finish respectably. Otherwise, he was headed straight to about an 20th place finish. However, he have 5 straight Top 15 finishes at this track though. With 3 of those 5 races ending inside the top 10. Headed into the weekend, I would view him as a low to middle teen type of driver. So a finish in the 12th-16th place is likely for him.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy and JGR struggled pretty bad at Michigan and it probably had a lot to do with the race package. They also struggled noticeably at the first Michigan race as well. I think they will be back to their old ways at Darlington though. Rowdy have been very good at this track throughout his career. Over the past 2 races here, he have compiled 6.5 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 100.9 driver rating. Kyle been great here, since joining JGR in 2008. In 7 races, he have posted 7 Top 11 finishes. Including 5 Top 7 finishes over his past 6 races. With 4 straight Top 7 finishes over his past 4 starts at this track, dating back to the 2012 season. Over the past two seasons, he have posted finishes of 6th and 7th. Another great aspect of Kyle's potential I like? He have led in 7 of his 8 races with JGR here. Kyle will be a strong performer this weekend and you can almost expect him to be up battling for the win.
19-Carl Edwards: Much like his teammates above, Edwards also has a great track record at Darlington. In 12 career starts, he have posted 11.5 average finish in 13 races so far. He have done pretty well here recently too. Over the past two races here, he have compiled 7.0 average finish with 20.5 average running position and 87.6 driver rating. He won this race last season, but only led about 13 laps of that race. He probably stole that win from Keselowski when the last caution came out. In 2014, he wasn't that competitive and finished 13th. To be fair, he was still with RFR though. They were under performing, so Edwards potential was limited! Overall, he have finished 5 of his past 7 races here inside the top 7. Including 4 of his past 5 races here inside the top 7. Edwards should be least considered an top 10 threat and probably even more.
20-Matt Kenseth: Let's keep the strong track record trend keep going here, because Kenseth also have been good here throughout his Cup career. However, Kenseth is coming off one of his worst races of the season at Michigan. But I feel like he will rebound fairly nice though. He been good here recently. Over the past 2 races here, he have compiled 12.5 average finish with 17.5 average running position and 93.9 driver rating. He have posted finishes of 4th and 21st. He wasn't much of an factor when it came down it last season here and finished 21st, after starting from 17th. In 2014, he was very strong and finished 4th. He led 13 laps in that race and was top 5 good for that event. In 2013, he actually went to victory lane for the first time at this track. Not the first time have won success. Over the past 10 races here (dating back 2003), he have posted 7 Top 10 finishes overall. Kenseth isn't new to finding success at Darlington and I am sure he will be up inside the top 10 on Sunday night. But I don't know how much fantasy value he will have. This season it seems like he is nothing more than an top 10 guy. He have from time to time ran inside the top 5, but not consistent enough though.
21-Ryan Blaney: I thought Blaney was gonna be a major factor at Michigan and he did exactly that. And he got the finish he deserved too. At Bristol, he had one of his best races but got robbed of a good finish though. So I think he a bit more even now. What can you expect from him at Darlington? I am not real sure. He was just junk here last year and faded quickly through the field. Of course, he has much more experience in a Cup car now. So I expect him to be vastly improved, but what is his possible potential? Hard to say honestly! If he can go and limit his mistakes, then I say he will definitely contend for a top 15 finish and maybe challenge for a top 10. Blaney big problem this season have been staying out of trouble. For some reason, the 21 team have often put themselves in a hole. At Darlington, that seems to often lead to poor finishes. Remember this is a driver track too.
22-Joey Logano: Logano for the second straight races end up being a disappointment for fantasy players. At tracks that he suppose to be one of the heavy favorites. He should have a good chance to rebound at Darlington though. Over the past two races here, he have compiled 19.5 average finish with 7.5 average running position and 101.3 driver rating. In last season's race, he was very good and was a top 5 contender. He led 29 laps on his way to that 4th place finish. He wasn't quite as good as teammate Keselowski's but he could stay with the Gibbs bunch and Harvick though. In 2014 (it was held in the spring time just for the record - in case you don't have a good memory), he finished 35th. He had issues with 14 to go, after being a top 5 to top 10 contender for majority of that race. Actually led 37 laps from the 2nd starting spot. Just poor luck is all. In his debut with Penske in 2013, he just wasn't competitive at Darlington. It should be noted, Logano's career with Penske didn't take off until after the Charlotte's race that season. He was still finding his footing with his team at that point in 2013. Headed into the weekend, I would call him a boarderline top 5 driver with some winning potential.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott may have let his best chance to go to victory slip past him for the second time this season at Michigan. Hard to not feel bad for this kid, but trust me he is gonna win sooner or later. Will it come at Darlington this weekend? Maybe. I think Darlington is right in his wheelhouse in terms of his driving style. At this place, the driver is more in control. You run right up against that wall. Elliott is usually pretty good at keeping his car off the wall and stuff. Also, he won't make too many mistakes either. On top of that, he usually runs his best on the intermediate tracks. And Darlington does qualify as an intermediate racetrack. Even if it is a ''odd'' track at 1.33 miles long. Headed into the weekend, I would pin Elliott as a top 15 driver with major upside to contend for a top 10 finish. Maybe even more!
31-Ryan Newman: Ryan Newman is in a tough spot right now. With only two races to go, he needs to gain 15 points on the final chase spot. But if he doesn't make the chase, it probably goes back to him having a poor stench of races recently. Over the past 5 Sprint Cup races this season, he have finished 16th or worse in 4 of those races. That's not very Ryan Newman-like. He usually a consistent low-teen finisher. Truth be told, RCR just doesn't have the speed right now. I think we saw that last week at Michigan. He been good at Darlington though. Over the past 2 races here, he have compiled 11.5 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 87.0 driver rating. He have posted finishes of 13th and 10th over the past two seasons here. In fact, Newman have compiled 8 Top 10 finishes over his past 11 races at this track! Including, 3 straight Top 13 finishes this track overall. But no finish better than 10th place since finishing 5th in 2011 at this track. I really like Newman this weekend overall. He needs good finishes and I expect his team to do everything they can to get him inside the top 10 the next two weeks.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch wasn't ever a contender at Michigan, but he wasn't super terrible either. Just wasn't that good overall. Being good for Kurt Busch this season have been being a top 10 contender and his starting position didn't do him any favors. How will he do at Darlington? I think he will be top 10 good like most race weekends this season. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 18.5 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 95.7 driver rating. He doesn't have best track record, when looking at his numbers recently. He finished 6th at this track last season, but that's his only top 10 over his previous 5 races. And only 2 Top 10 finishes over his past 11 races this track. He posted 4 top 7 finishes over 5 races span from 2002 to 2004, but not much since though. More recently, he have finished 16th or worse in 4 of his past 6 races at Darlington. With that said, I think past stats are misleading. We cannot base everything off the ''past'', it called the past for the reason. I legitimately think he can be a top 10 contender. Worst case for him, he finishes just outside of the top 10.
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson is prove, if you run well consistently good things will eventually happen. For him, he led to him finally going to victory lane. Bad news for the chase field though. As he has a lot of great track coming up and one of them is the next one on the schedule. He only have made two starts at Darlington, but have made the most out of them. Over his first two starts, he have compiled 9.0 average finish with 13.5 average running position and 90.7 driver rating. In his rookie season (in 2014), he wasn't bad at all. He just had a better finish than he performed. He finished 8th place and posted 81.9 driver rating. Last season, he was vastly improved and finished 10th. However, he was much better than that though. He was top 5 or 6 good for much of the second half of the race. In fact, he was running inside the top 5 before a late caution dropped him in the running order. With Chip Ganassi Racing unloading faster cars, I think Larson has a good shot at going for back-to-back wins. I doubt it happens, but you never know. Realistically, I have him as top 10 contender entering the weekend.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is coming off one of his best races of the season (or least in quite awhile). Johnson probably could have won at Michigan, but he had a tire issue in second half of the race. He still finished top 10 though. Johnson now have back-to-back top 10 finishes for the first time since Martinsville and Texas (back in April). He also have posted 4 Top 12 finishes over his past 6 races this season. So he has some momentum on his side, too. Darlington always been fairly good to Johnson. Over the past two races here, he have compiled 11.0 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 90.8 driver rating. He have posted 19th and 3rd in his past 2 races at this track! He have posted 4 top 3 finishes over his past 7 races. From career standpoint, he have been one of the best drivers in the series. In 17 career starts, he have posted 9.0 average finish with 9 Top 4 finishes. A good portion of those came between 2003 and 2007, but as I mention he has 4 Top 4 finishes over his past 7 races, as well. It too early for me to jump back on the Johnson's express, but I am starting to feel he may be getting back on track. If that's true, then he could be a solid option in the incoming weeks. For now, I view him nothing more than an top 10 fantasy option though.
78-Martin Truex Jr: You don't even have to watch the races anymore, to know if Truex found bad luck. It almost like someone personally doesn't want him to finish well. The real funny thing is? He finds new ways to finish poorly! At Michigan? The jack came down and damage his car. The jack, his own team killed his chances! Bad enough he has bad luck on his side on the track, now his pit crew is chipping in. Not good for him. Doesn't take away the fact he was fast once again. He been very fast all season long, however time and time again he finds ways into trouble. He been good at Darlington. Over the past two races here, he have compiled 18.0 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 88.8 driver rating. He finished 9th in last season here, but was a top 5 contender for good portion of the race. Not sure why, but just before the final caution his car was going south very quickly. I would assume it was because his lost handling. If that caution didn't come out, he may have finished outside of the top 10. He finished 27th in 2014. But he have posted 4 Top 12 finishes over his past 5 races here. Including 3 finishes of 10th or better. Overall, he have finished 14th or better in 8 of his 10 career races. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 10 driver with upside to be a top 5 threat. As usual, his bad luck will drag his fantasy value down.
88-Jeff Gordon: Jeff Gordon will return to behind the wheel of the No.88 car at Darlington. He always have been as strong contender at Darlington and should be a good bet once again. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 11.5 average finish with 6.0 average running position and 108.5 driver rating. Gordon have been a force at this track throughout his career. Over his past 11 races, he have posted 8 Top 5 finishes. That's too deep for a track, we only go to once a year. So let's dial it back some. Over the past 3 seasons, he have posted finishes of 16th, 7th and 3rd. In 2014, he was top 5 strong and posted an 120.2 driver rating. He should be a solid bet to be a top 10 contender on Sunday night. Watch practice, but I am not too concerned about him. He been running better in recent cup races as well.
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
