Sunday, August 06, 2017

2017 Fantasy Nascar Sleepers & Dark Horses (The Glen)

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 Sleepers

Danica Patrick - Patrick is having the best stench of her career over the past month and her numbers on the road courses lately has been pretty good. In her last four race this season (dating back to Kentucky), she has 4 top 15 finishes. While, she also has finished 17th-21st in her last four road course races. In three of her last four road course races, she finished in 17th or 19th. At Watkins Glen, she haven't finished worse than 21st in her career, since joining the 10 team. I don't think she will finish in the top 15 in the race, but I think she will finish in the 17th-22nd place range. That's a good outlook for her, I think.

Michael McDowell -  Say hello to the best kept secret in the field this weekend. McDowell is a very talented road course racer, but he usually not in good enough equipment to do anything with it. Over the past year, the 95 team have improved a lot and so is Michael. He is running a lot better now and finished in the top 15 at Sonoma, earlier this season. That run was prove that the 95 team has improved, if you needed any. This weekend, he is running well and seems to poised to have another solid run. In his past two starts at Watkins Glenn, he's finished in the top 20. If he can run top 20 here before, then I think he is very capable of finishing in the top 15 when the checkers wave today.

Dark Horses

Clint Bowyer - Bowyer is one of my top dark horses headed into today's race and probably could be considered a favorite in some people eyes. He looked really good in practice on Saturday and displayed a lot of speed in racetrim. We didn't see a lot of practice time, but he was one of the drivers that stood out. This shouldn't come as a surprise though. He is considered as a road course ace in general. While, he haven't finished better than 6th here, he did win at Sonoma in 2012 and finished in the top 5 earlier this season at Sonoma. Different tracks, but still he knows how to get around the road courses. Outside of Kyle Busch and Marcos Ambrose, there haven't been any repeat winners since the 2008 season. History says, we are than likely to get a new winner on Sunday afternoon. Clint Bowyer is one of the drivers at top of my list!

Jamie Mac - Jamie is having a great season so far and is definitely a guy that can run well on the road courses. I don't think he is nearly talented as his younger teammate, but don't overlook him though. Since August 2013, Jamie has been of the more consistent finishers in the series. In 5 of his last 8 races on the road courses, he has finished 11th or better. It that sort of consistency that you want to see out of a fantasy pick. In his past 4 races at Watkins Glen, he's finished 14th or better three times. And I think Jamie is running better in general this season than he was in any of those seasons, too. If he is going to win a race between now and the playoffs cut-off, then it will likely be here at Watkins Glen. I think this is the most likely place that he can score a win.


Bonus -

RaceDay Bust

AJ Dinger - Dinger is my bust today and it not because he has shitty luck on the road course. I think his luck is a lot worse at Sonoma than it is at Watkins Glen. As he has solid finishes in 7 of 8 races here, but it has nothing to do with track record. It really have to do with that Dinger has looked considerably off this weekend. The driver of the No.47 car struggled on Saturday. He wasn't very happy with his car and was in the middle-pack on the speed charts. I am sorry, but that's not a good sign. I want to believe that Dinger can win the race (or at least contend), but I think he will be a bitter disappointment again. If he cannot win the race, then I don't see any point of using him this week. I also believe he will push his car to the limit and have some sort of issue. That seems to be a common problem for him on the road courses, too.

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