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Fantasy Nascar Update -
1. Kyle Busch - Rowdy is the heavy favorite going into the race. He has a great track record here and he is starting on the pole. He has looked fast all weekend and overall been happy with his car. Nobody is perfect, but I think he is closer than most are. On top of that, he has finished 7th or better in every race this season, since Atlanta. He has finished 3rd or better in every race since Las Vegas. Personally, I think Kyle will be tough to beat whenever we do go green. If you want to go to victory lane, you will have to beat the guy that has everything right now.
2. Kyle Larson - Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson both seem to be really strong at Bristol, but both also seem to get snake bitten with bad luck often, too. So there is that risk, but the upside is the sky. At a place like this, you gamble for the pay off. Larson runs better than most drivers in the field here and often has a top 5 car. On Saturday, he ran a lot of laps. In the two sessions, he ran more laps than anyone else. Which means, he didn't spend a lot of time in the garage. In fact, Larson ended practice about 10 minutes early because his team ran out of tires. He loves Bristol and I think he may be the man to beat if that top comes in. He was the only driver that went up there and practiced higher up the track. He also mentioned that his car was pretty decent on the bottom, too.
3. Joey Logano - Logano has been pretty good this weekend and I really haven't heard many bad things about him or seen many things I can complain about for the most part. He is having a nice season so far and he said that 22 car is good. His record here is solid too over the past two seasons with 9.5 average finish in his last 4 races. Including 3 top 10 finishes. His 9.5 average finish ranked 5th among all drivers in the series since April 2016. If I was a betting man, I would place him the 3rd-7th place range for him to finish. Realistically, he is more likely to finish in the latter part of that range, but I love his upside. He will be good enough to challenge for a top 5 finish.
4. Brad Keselowski - It is really amazing how much bad luck Keselowski has had since that 2015 season. More specifically that spring 2015 rain filled race. Just before the race was placed under red flag conditions (for several hours), him and teammate Joey Logano wrecked battling for the lead. Keselowski has had just one top 10 finish since then. Of course, many times he had just simple bad luck. Something always seem to derail his good performances. With the way the Ford has performed this season, I think he will have a shot at a top 5 to top 10 finish. I think pit selection will be huge and we all know what that can do with his elite pit crew. Not saying it is going to win him the race, but it certainly vaults him above some other contenders starting deeper in the field. He will start 3rd, which also plays a major factor into my rankings. With one groove, it will be tough pass until that second groove eventually comes in. The guys with a solid car up front will greatly benefit in the early going, in my opinion.
5. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is starting from mid-pack and he struggled often on Friday and Saturday. But at end of final practice, they got that 11 car looking pretty good. It didn't look like he was fighting that car like he was earlier in the session. His lap times were competitive, too. Hamlin has a long road ahead of him, but he knows how to get through the field. Some people may write him off, but I am not ready to do that yet. The 11 car will at least finish in the top 10. He is someone that I will have my eye on!
6. Ricky Stenhouse Jr - I should probably rank him lower than this, but I think that 17 car is gonna be really good in the race. On Friday, he qualified 4th. He followed that up on Saturday and posted the best-20 lap average in the morning session. He remained fast in final practice. Stenhouse Jr also has impressive track record here, and many (including myself) would ranked this as his best track. Don't be fooled, this 17 car will be a serious contender whenever we do indeed go racing.
7. Martin Truex Jr - Aside from Texas and Daytona, Truex Jr has not finished outside of the top 5. And he will start further back than usual, but I do believe that the 78 car will finish in the top 10 when it is over. This is one of the best drivers in the series and has ran very well in recent years here. As for this weekend, he has enough speed to get a top 10 finish probably. I think it may be difficult for him to win, but you are a fool if you think he doesn't finish in the top 10. I cannot recall the last time, he did not challenge for a top 10 in a race. He will be fine!
8. Ryan Blaney - I am not super high on Blaney this weekend as most people are, but he has ran well at Bristol in the past (WHEN he finishes on the lead lap) during his young cup career. And it does not hurt that he is one of the top rides in the series. Still, I am not super confident in Ryan Blaney. In practice, it did not sound like he was where he wanted the car to be at overall. I really don't have a lot more to say about him. So far in his career, Blaney has been top 11 or bust. Not exactly smoothing if you ask me. I have question about Ryan this weekend, but he has finished 3 of his last 5 races this season in the top 5.
9. Kevin Harvick - Harvick is throwing some major red flags so far this weekend, but for me it is hard to rank him any lower than this. He has been one of the best drivers in the series every week so far in 2018. And you don't go to complete trash in an instant. He has struggled with his cars (he went to backup on Friday), but I got to believe that they will fix him up before 500 miles is up. The 4 team will figure it out and get him at least in the top 10. Even with his starting dead last, I think he has a good shot at a top 10 finish. I have my doubts about the top 5 though.
10. Chase Elliott - This last spot was really tough between Elliott, Johnson and Jones. I don't love any of them honestly. I think all three will hover from 9th-14th range. One of them will probably sneak into the top 10 and finish there. Elliott probably showed the most of three on Saturday. I doubt if he contends for anything other than a latter finish in the top 10, but I have been wrong before though. This is a solid track for Elliott. He has 11.0 average finish in his 4 career starts. He has finished 7th and 4th in two career spring races.
Just missed on -
11. Erik Jones
12. Jimmie Johnson
13. Clint Bowyer
14. Aric Almirola
15. Kurt Busch
****All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Fantasy Nascar Update -
1. Kyle Busch - Rowdy is the heavy favorite going into the race. He has a great track record here and he is starting on the pole. He has looked fast all weekend and overall been happy with his car. Nobody is perfect, but I think he is closer than most are. On top of that, he has finished 7th or better in every race this season, since Atlanta. He has finished 3rd or better in every race since Las Vegas. Personally, I think Kyle will be tough to beat whenever we do go green. If you want to go to victory lane, you will have to beat the guy that has everything right now.
2. Kyle Larson - Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson both seem to be really strong at Bristol, but both also seem to get snake bitten with bad luck often, too. So there is that risk, but the upside is the sky. At a place like this, you gamble for the pay off. Larson runs better than most drivers in the field here and often has a top 5 car. On Saturday, he ran a lot of laps. In the two sessions, he ran more laps than anyone else. Which means, he didn't spend a lot of time in the garage. In fact, Larson ended practice about 10 minutes early because his team ran out of tires. He loves Bristol and I think he may be the man to beat if that top comes in. He was the only driver that went up there and practiced higher up the track. He also mentioned that his car was pretty decent on the bottom, too.
3. Joey Logano - Logano has been pretty good this weekend and I really haven't heard many bad things about him or seen many things I can complain about for the most part. He is having a nice season so far and he said that 22 car is good. His record here is solid too over the past two seasons with 9.5 average finish in his last 4 races. Including 3 top 10 finishes. His 9.5 average finish ranked 5th among all drivers in the series since April 2016. If I was a betting man, I would place him the 3rd-7th place range for him to finish. Realistically, he is more likely to finish in the latter part of that range, but I love his upside. He will be good enough to challenge for a top 5 finish.
4. Brad Keselowski - It is really amazing how much bad luck Keselowski has had since that 2015 season. More specifically that spring 2015 rain filled race. Just before the race was placed under red flag conditions (for several hours), him and teammate Joey Logano wrecked battling for the lead. Keselowski has had just one top 10 finish since then. Of course, many times he had just simple bad luck. Something always seem to derail his good performances. With the way the Ford has performed this season, I think he will have a shot at a top 5 to top 10 finish. I think pit selection will be huge and we all know what that can do with his elite pit crew. Not saying it is going to win him the race, but it certainly vaults him above some other contenders starting deeper in the field. He will start 3rd, which also plays a major factor into my rankings. With one groove, it will be tough pass until that second groove eventually comes in. The guys with a solid car up front will greatly benefit in the early going, in my opinion.
5. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is starting from mid-pack and he struggled often on Friday and Saturday. But at end of final practice, they got that 11 car looking pretty good. It didn't look like he was fighting that car like he was earlier in the session. His lap times were competitive, too. Hamlin has a long road ahead of him, but he knows how to get through the field. Some people may write him off, but I am not ready to do that yet. The 11 car will at least finish in the top 10. He is someone that I will have my eye on!
6. Ricky Stenhouse Jr - I should probably rank him lower than this, but I think that 17 car is gonna be really good in the race. On Friday, he qualified 4th. He followed that up on Saturday and posted the best-20 lap average in the morning session. He remained fast in final practice. Stenhouse Jr also has impressive track record here, and many (including myself) would ranked this as his best track. Don't be fooled, this 17 car will be a serious contender whenever we do indeed go racing.
7. Martin Truex Jr - Aside from Texas and Daytona, Truex Jr has not finished outside of the top 5. And he will start further back than usual, but I do believe that the 78 car will finish in the top 10 when it is over. This is one of the best drivers in the series and has ran very well in recent years here. As for this weekend, he has enough speed to get a top 10 finish probably. I think it may be difficult for him to win, but you are a fool if you think he doesn't finish in the top 10. I cannot recall the last time, he did not challenge for a top 10 in a race. He will be fine!
8. Ryan Blaney - I am not super high on Blaney this weekend as most people are, but he has ran well at Bristol in the past (WHEN he finishes on the lead lap) during his young cup career. And it does not hurt that he is one of the top rides in the series. Still, I am not super confident in Ryan Blaney. In practice, it did not sound like he was where he wanted the car to be at overall. I really don't have a lot more to say about him. So far in his career, Blaney has been top 11 or bust. Not exactly smoothing if you ask me. I have question about Ryan this weekend, but he has finished 3 of his last 5 races this season in the top 5.
9. Kevin Harvick - Harvick is throwing some major red flags so far this weekend, but for me it is hard to rank him any lower than this. He has been one of the best drivers in the series every week so far in 2018. And you don't go to complete trash in an instant. He has struggled with his cars (he went to backup on Friday), but I got to believe that they will fix him up before 500 miles is up. The 4 team will figure it out and get him at least in the top 10. Even with his starting dead last, I think he has a good shot at a top 10 finish. I have my doubts about the top 5 though.
10. Chase Elliott - This last spot was really tough between Elliott, Johnson and Jones. I don't love any of them honestly. I think all three will hover from 9th-14th range. One of them will probably sneak into the top 10 and finish there. Elliott probably showed the most of three on Saturday. I doubt if he contends for anything other than a latter finish in the top 10, but I have been wrong before though. This is a solid track for Elliott. He has 11.0 average finish in his 4 career starts. He has finished 7th and 4th in two career spring races.
Just missed on -
11. Erik Jones
12. Jimmie Johnson
13. Clint Bowyer
14. Aric Almirola
15. Kurt Busch
****All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
