Saturday, June 23, 2018

2018 Fantasy Nascar Update (Sonoma)

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Fantasy Nascar Update -

1. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr has been a road course ace for awhile and he is very good at Sonoma. He won here with the #56, before the team got shutdown. And he has been fast with the #78 team in recent seasons. He qualified 2nd for this weekend race and after qualifying, he said that he has had a really fast racecar. That's right there is a very confident driver and one that is in elite equipment with prior success. Bad news for the competition!

2. Kevin Harvick - Harvick has always been a driver who get overlooked at the road courses for some reason. At Sonoma, he has been awesome since joining SHR. 3 straight top 6 finishes, including a win in last season's race here. In all four races with SHR at this track, he has compiled a driver rating above 100.0. In 2014, he had the best car on the long run in my opinion. But he got involved in a wreck. He never truly recovered and finished 20th. He will be someone to deal with, if you want to win this weekend. The #4 team on a weekly basis is someone who has the chance to dominate. I wouldn't rule it out here. In fact, I would expect the #4 car to be at the lead at some point, too.

3. Kyle Busch -Right now, it is too hard to rank him any lower. He is one of the hottest drivers in the series still and has found legit success on road courses over the past few seasons. I think he is a lot better at Watkins Glen, but he has been pretty good lately here. Including a race win, just three seasons ago. He has finishes of 1st, 7th and 5th over his last three starts here. And he is starting in the top 10 for Sunday's race. He may not have the 3rd-best car entering the race, but he certainly has all of the tools to get the job done. Never ever count Kyle Busch out and I think a lot of people are overlooking him this weekend. He probably has a good enough car to challenge for a top 5. If he doesn't, his pit crew will give him a shot at it. Either way, I would feel pretty good about his chances overall.

4. Chase Elliott - Elliott has looked very good all weekend long and he qualified in the top 5. Elliott was looking pretty strong in the No.9 car in qualifying and will start from the No.4 spot. I think he has a legit shot at the win honestly. This is the most speed I seen out of him all year. Of course, this is a road course, so speed really isn't as much of a factor. Especially at at place like Sonoma. Maybe that has helped him a little, too. Either way, I think he has a shot to be a top 5 guy in the race. I say his range is 4th-8th in the race. That is the realistically running order to see him in.

5. Kyle Larson - I kinda wanna rank Larson lower than this honestly. I remember the last time that he started on the pole at Sonoma in 2017. Remember? He started on the pole and led 9 laps. Then he finished 26th and off the lead lap. You would think that he had something happen to him, right? Nope. He had no issues in terms on pit road or mechanical problems. He was simply noncompetitive in that event. That race from last year keep creeping up in my mind. He seemed to be pretty good on both days so far, but I do have my doubts. Prove me wrong, Larson!

6. Joey Logano - Logano is a pretty underrated road course racer and never seem to get the credit that he deserves. There are a lot of things to like about Joey. He has been very consistent all season long and that could be huge, if he can keep it going here at Sonoma. Another thing I like? Last season's race winner won from the 12th starting position. Joey will start from the 12th starting position. That probably means nothing, but still I love throwing out interesting stats. Overall, I really like Joey this weekend. He showed good speed in practice and now he just need to translate it to raceday.

7. AJ Dinger - Dinger is always an interesting driver when it comes to the road courses. Especially here at Sonoma. The potential is unreal with him, but he has only one top 10 finish at this track since becoming a full-time driver in the #47 car. It is very hard to not have him in your lineup at Sonoma. Every time we come here, he seems to have a top 5 car. Problem seems to be that he uses up his equipment and has mechanical issues during the race. Sonoma is a tough track, so I totally get that. This place eats up equipment pretty quick. If he can avoid any issues, I think Dinger has a real shot at finishing in the top 5!

8. Clint Bowyer - I am not sure what happened to Clint Bowyer in qualifying, as he will start from the 19th posiiton.. I expected a lot more from him. As he was fastest in final practice and was pretty good on the 5-best lap average chart. And we all know how good he is on these road courses. He has pretty good damn numbers here at Sonoma. He is a former winner at this track, back in 2012. Since that season, his career really has taken off on this type of track. Even before that, you could see him trending toward stardom at the road courses. Now, he is in top equipment with all of the momentum in the world. I don't see him finishing outside of the top 10.

9. Jamie Mac - Jamie seem to be trending in the right direction of late and now comes to a pretty good track for him. I think Sonoma is one of those tracks that he is really good on or really bad. For period of his career, he has been both. Lately, it seems to be in the middle for him. He has finishes of 25th, 4th, 11th, 10th and 17th in his last 5 races at Sonoma. It should be noted that 3 of his last 4 races at Sonoma, he has finished 11th or better. So yeah, there is reason to believe that Jamie could be very good this weekend. He is starting up front, so there is that too. However, I don't him starting up front is anything to get excited about. 6 times in his career, he has started in the top 5 at Sonoma. He has finished 15th or worse in 4 of 6 races. He started 1st or 2nd in all of those races, for the record. He is starting from 3rd on Sunday. I think Jamie will finish somewhere between 8th-13th most likely. That is his range, in my opinion.

10. Jimmie Johnson - This final spot came down to Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin or Brad Keselowski. I am going with Johnson. I believe, Johnson will be good in the race and he has a chance to run in the top 10. I think he has more than a chance though. Johnson is a very underrated road course racer. From 2009 to 2015, he did not finish outside of the top 10. He was simply a machine here and now he has posted back-to-back finishes of 13th. In last season's race, he finished 13th, after leading 12 laps. He was pretty good in the race. I will give him that. I think he gonna one of those guys that stay in the top 10 all day and finish around there, too. That is the feeling, I am getting. I also could see him dropping out of the top 10 easily as well. With Johnson, it seems like you just never know anymore.

Just missed -

Denny Hamlin

Brad Keselowski

Ryan Newman

Ryan Blaney

Kurt Busch

****All stats are from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18