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#1-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch has an interesting record of late at Charlotte. In 7 of his last 9 races here, he has finished in the top 11. Including 5 of his last 8 races ending in the top 8. The bad news? 2 of his last three races here has ended in 22nd or worse. In his last 4 races overall, he has compiled 15.8 average finish with 9.9 aveage running position and 89.8 driver rating. He was strong in spring 2017 and spring 2018. He finished 6th and 8th in those races! How did he do in spring 2019? He posted 14.3 average running position and held 69.3 driver rating. Not great numbers, but the fact that he finished 27th and still held 14.3 average running position is very impressive.
#2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski always will have a chance to be a great option here at Charlotte, but his numbers don't scream consistently when looking at them as a whole, despite an 13.3 career average finish (which isn't too bad.) From 2015 to 2016 (4 race span), he posted 4 straight top 10 finishes. Other than that, only one time in his career has he finished back-to-back races in the top 10 at Charlotte! In his last 4 races here, he has posted finishes of 19th, 4th, 15th and 39th. So yes, he's all over the board with his finishes. Good news? His last finish here was 19th, so he could be due for at least a top 10 finish. More good news? Despite finishing 19th in last spring's race, he led 76 laps and first 1st in both stage 1 and 2! Combine that with the speed of these Penske cars in 2020 and you just might have a really good formula for that #2 car!
#3-Austin Dillon: Many people drag Austin Dillon for winning on fuel milage at the Coke 600 in 2017 and many say it one of the luckiest wins in recent memory. I agree, he didn't have a car that ''should'' had won! With that said, most folks forget that he was competitive in that race (and was competitive often in 2017) and had a legit top 10 car for that event. Hell, he finished 7th in stage 2 and held 10.2 average running position and 103.2 driver rating. Some will say, ''well those numbers are inflated because of fuel milage!'' Yeah, but there 600 miles in that event. And how long did fuel milage come into play? Maybe the last 20 laps or so? You see my point here. He wasn't a top 5 contender, but he wasn't some scrub in that race riding in the mid-teens or 20s. With that said, it's his only good finish in his last 5 races at Charlotte. In his last 5 races here, he has finishes of 34th, 34th, 16th, 1st and 32nd. Based how he has ran in 2020, I say he's at best a mid-teen guy. I don't expect a lot noise from Austin Dillon and I would avoid him here, until at least the second Charlotte race!
#4-Kevin Harvick: I love Kevin Harvick here at Charlotte, even though his last win came in October 2014! With that said, he has finished 10th or worse in 3 of the last 5 races here. With that said, 2 of those 3 races ended with a blown engine and an indicent. The other race? He finished 10th, after being a top 5 contender in the first two stages. That race was the most recent race here. He also was very good in 2017 and led a career-high 149 laps in the fall's race (when there were two races still) and another 25 laps in the spring's race. It also should be noted that he has posted a driver rating above 100 in every single race since joining SHR, minus the two races that he failed to finish. In 2019, he posted his lowest driver rating (when he finished on the lead lap) since joining the #4 team at Charlotte.
#6-Ryan Newman: One of the feel good stories of 2020 is Ryan Newman coming back from that scary wreck back at Daytona! It's simply good to see Ryan back at the racetrack! Just like most places that we go to, Ryan is a consistent driver overall. In 10 of his last 12 races here at Charlotte, he has finished 16th or better. In the two races that he didn't, he failed to finish the race. In more recent history, he has finished 3 of his last 5 races in 16th, 9th and 4th. In his first start with the #6 team, he ended up finishing 16th and posted 69.2 driver rating.
#9-Chase Elliott: Elliott should be considered a real threat here at Charlotte, as he has compiled 3 straight top 11 finishes. Including top 5 finishes in his past two of three races. Back in 2016, he finished 33rd but led over 100 laps in the fall's event. Overall in 6 career starts (since his rookie year, excluding his first start in 2015 - before his rookie year), he has finished 11th or better four times already. In his last three starts, he has compiled 5.7 average finish with 7.6 average running position and 106.6 driver rating. How does he stack up to the competition in those 3 races? He ranked 2nd in average finish, 2nd in average running position and 4th in driver rating in the series overall. Hard to hate those numbers!
#10-Aric Almirola: Aric Almirola has been a hit or miss driver since joining SHR! He always have the chance to run well, but sometimes he just fade and becomes non-competitive. Other times? He's in the top 10 all night long and finishes there. It's tough to get a good read on him, even when he has a fast car. How has he fair at Charlotte? In his career, he has only posted one career top 10 finish and that was in 2015 when he finished 10th. Since joining Stewart Haas (two seasons ago - 2 races at Charlotte), he has posted finishes of 11th and 13th. He was more competitive in the first race than the second race. In those two races, he has compiled 12.0 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 91.2 driver rating. It also should be noted that he held 5.5 average start position in those race, so starting up front has also been a blessing for him, too. Not that it translated to him finishing up front, though. Overall, Aric has been good at Charlotte. Not great, but better than he has most of his career here.
#11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has has a pretty good career record here at Charlotte! For his career, he has a 11.4 career average finish overall. That's impressive any way you want to slice it, but he has been hit or miss in the finish department over the last few seasons. He finished 17th in last season's race here at Charlotte, but prior to that he has finished 3 straight races in the top 5. Overall in the last 4 races, he has compiled 7.3 average finish with 8.7 average running position and 104.8 driver rating. He ranked 2nd, 2nd and T-3rd in the series among those 4 races in the series. I would say that last season's race was his worst race by far of the four races. If you exclude the 2014 race, it might have been his worst race since the 2010 spring's race here. And he wasn't horrible in 2019's race by any means honestly. He finished 17th, while holding 12.6 average running posiiton and 88.7 driver rating. Not great, but I seen much worse numbers by drivers in similar equipment and it was only one race, too.
#12-Ryan Blaney: We talk about how talented Ryan Blaney is and sometimes we forget just how inconsistent he is. In fact, I mentioned it on a fantasy racing forum earlier this season. Just before the race, someone had a concerned about starting Johnson. And I raised the quesition, what makes Ryan Blaney any less risky? Valid question. Ironically, Johnson ended up in the top 10 in that race and Ryan Blaney had more bad luck. I guess my point is Blaney is just one of those guys that has huge upside but just as much risk. So as usual, it is tough to get a good read on him overall. Charlotte has been no exceptation, either. In his career at Charlotte, he has no finish better than 8th and that's his sole top 10 finish in 8 starts. In fact, he has no finish better than 13th and that 13th place finish came in the most recent race here. He was top 10 good in the first two stages, before finishing a misleading 13th place finish. Two seasons ago, he was top 5 good before having a engine let go. So he has been strong in the past at Charlotte and has had speed on the intermediate tracks in 2020. Really fast overall!
#18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy is one of the best drivers in the series. And that has been the case at Charlotte in the past, too. In 30 career starts, he has compiled 12.9 average finish. In the last 5 races here, he has finished 6th or better in 4 of those races. Over the past two seasons, he has posted finishes of 1st and 3rd. Back in 2018, he led 377 laps from the pole on his way to victory lane. In last season's race, he led 79 laps on his way to a 3rd place finish. In the most recent spring race (prior to those two races), he ended up finishing 2nd place. He has been so-so on the intermediate tracks in 2020. So I do have questions, but he is a super talented driver so I am not too worried about him.
#19-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr has had a lot of bad luck this season and some of that has been his pit crew. And others? Well it has happened on the racetrack. The one consistent thing: The #19 car has consistent been the fastest JGR car and a threat for a win. Truex Jr always has seemed like a driver to be that will have some rotten lucks for unfair strenches. He has been very competitive in 2020, but he just hasn't had the results to show for a whole lot, sadly. Charlotte has been a great track for Truex Jr! How great? He has finished in the top 5 in 7 of his last 8 races here. In 6 of those 8 races, he has finished inside the top 3! Even better? He has finished 1st, 2nd, 1st and 3rd in his last three starts at this track overall. He will be tough to beat here at Charlotte!
#20-Erik Jones: Jones hasn't really impressed so far this season overall and I cannot say that I am super high on Jones as of right now. He finished 7th in his first career start at this racetrack, but has finished worse with each passing start. Good news for him at Charlotte? He finished dead last in his most recent start at this track! So that trend will change in 2020. Bad news? He hasn't looked good early in the season and probably been the worst JGR car in terms of speed. I think Jones' most realistic finish range is probably just outside of the top 10, but he does the upside to be a high-single digit finisher.
#22-Joey Logano: Logano has won multiple times in 2020 and he will look to keep things rolling here at Charlotte. A track where he has found success in the past. Problem? He has finished outside of the top 20 in 4 of his last 5 races at Charlotte. Good news? He finished 2nd in last season's race here and has shown speed in pretty much every race here in the 2020 season. I don't have a lot to say about Joey Logano, but at the very least he will have a chance to contend for a top 10 finish.
#24-William Byron: I have been fairly high on the HMS cars since they have unloaded in the second race of the season, so I will keep hyping that train this weekend at Charlotte. I probably like Byron more than most do and a lot of that is because how he has performed on the intermediate tracks in 2020. Especially the Las Vegas' race. I would put the most weight into that race, if I were looking at data! Not the ideal 1.5 mile track to look at, but it's better than nothing. I think he will be a lot stronger on this type of track than those flat tracks!
#48-Jimmie Johnson: Heading into the 2020 season, I was not very high on Jimmie Johnson. He has changed my mind some, but I would be suprised if he ended winning a race in 2020. He's somewhere between elite and just good enough. He won't lead a lot of laps at the front, but probably has a chance to be top 10 good most weekend. Kinda what I am expecting out of him here at Charlotte. And he has been very good at Charlotte in his career and most recently. In 5 of his last 6 races here, he has finished in the top 8. He last won here in 2016 and followed it up with a 17th place finish in 2017 spring's race. Since then? He has finished of 8th, 5th and 7th. On top of that, the HMS cars were really strong at places like Las Vegas and Cali. Again, not the perfect places to look at, but it's something.
#88-Alex Bowman: Like his teammates, I think they will be better than most people will give them credit for. These Hendrick cars has been impressive at times in 2020 and I think they can impress once again here at Charlotte. Bowman was strong at Las Vegas and then out did that by winning at Cali. And he was not just strong, but probably the best driver in the field that day. It went Bowman/Blaney, then a gap to the field. And some could make the case that he would had won the Las Vegas' race, if that race went green to the finish. Keep your eyes on the #88 car this weekend!
**All stats from DriverAverages and FRCS.PRO
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Fantasy Nascar Preview -
#1-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch has an interesting record of late at Charlotte. In 7 of his last 9 races here, he has finished in the top 11. Including 5 of his last 8 races ending in the top 8. The bad news? 2 of his last three races here has ended in 22nd or worse. In his last 4 races overall, he has compiled 15.8 average finish with 9.9 aveage running position and 89.8 driver rating. He was strong in spring 2017 and spring 2018. He finished 6th and 8th in those races! How did he do in spring 2019? He posted 14.3 average running position and held 69.3 driver rating. Not great numbers, but the fact that he finished 27th and still held 14.3 average running position is very impressive.
#2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski always will have a chance to be a great option here at Charlotte, but his numbers don't scream consistently when looking at them as a whole, despite an 13.3 career average finish (which isn't too bad.) From 2015 to 2016 (4 race span), he posted 4 straight top 10 finishes. Other than that, only one time in his career has he finished back-to-back races in the top 10 at Charlotte! In his last 4 races here, he has posted finishes of 19th, 4th, 15th and 39th. So yes, he's all over the board with his finishes. Good news? His last finish here was 19th, so he could be due for at least a top 10 finish. More good news? Despite finishing 19th in last spring's race, he led 76 laps and first 1st in both stage 1 and 2! Combine that with the speed of these Penske cars in 2020 and you just might have a really good formula for that #2 car!
#3-Austin Dillon: Many people drag Austin Dillon for winning on fuel milage at the Coke 600 in 2017 and many say it one of the luckiest wins in recent memory. I agree, he didn't have a car that ''should'' had won! With that said, most folks forget that he was competitive in that race (and was competitive often in 2017) and had a legit top 10 car for that event. Hell, he finished 7th in stage 2 and held 10.2 average running position and 103.2 driver rating. Some will say, ''well those numbers are inflated because of fuel milage!'' Yeah, but there 600 miles in that event. And how long did fuel milage come into play? Maybe the last 20 laps or so? You see my point here. He wasn't a top 5 contender, but he wasn't some scrub in that race riding in the mid-teens or 20s. With that said, it's his only good finish in his last 5 races at Charlotte. In his last 5 races here, he has finishes of 34th, 34th, 16th, 1st and 32nd. Based how he has ran in 2020, I say he's at best a mid-teen guy. I don't expect a lot noise from Austin Dillon and I would avoid him here, until at least the second Charlotte race!
#4-Kevin Harvick: I love Kevin Harvick here at Charlotte, even though his last win came in October 2014! With that said, he has finished 10th or worse in 3 of the last 5 races here. With that said, 2 of those 3 races ended with a blown engine and an indicent. The other race? He finished 10th, after being a top 5 contender in the first two stages. That race was the most recent race here. He also was very good in 2017 and led a career-high 149 laps in the fall's race (when there were two races still) and another 25 laps in the spring's race. It also should be noted that he has posted a driver rating above 100 in every single race since joining SHR, minus the two races that he failed to finish. In 2019, he posted his lowest driver rating (when he finished on the lead lap) since joining the #4 team at Charlotte.
#6-Ryan Newman: One of the feel good stories of 2020 is Ryan Newman coming back from that scary wreck back at Daytona! It's simply good to see Ryan back at the racetrack! Just like most places that we go to, Ryan is a consistent driver overall. In 10 of his last 12 races here at Charlotte, he has finished 16th or better. In the two races that he didn't, he failed to finish the race. In more recent history, he has finished 3 of his last 5 races in 16th, 9th and 4th. In his first start with the #6 team, he ended up finishing 16th and posted 69.2 driver rating.
#9-Chase Elliott: Elliott should be considered a real threat here at Charlotte, as he has compiled 3 straight top 11 finishes. Including top 5 finishes in his past two of three races. Back in 2016, he finished 33rd but led over 100 laps in the fall's event. Overall in 6 career starts (since his rookie year, excluding his first start in 2015 - before his rookie year), he has finished 11th or better four times already. In his last three starts, he has compiled 5.7 average finish with 7.6 average running position and 106.6 driver rating. How does he stack up to the competition in those 3 races? He ranked 2nd in average finish, 2nd in average running position and 4th in driver rating in the series overall. Hard to hate those numbers!
#10-Aric Almirola: Aric Almirola has been a hit or miss driver since joining SHR! He always have the chance to run well, but sometimes he just fade and becomes non-competitive. Other times? He's in the top 10 all night long and finishes there. It's tough to get a good read on him, even when he has a fast car. How has he fair at Charlotte? In his career, he has only posted one career top 10 finish and that was in 2015 when he finished 10th. Since joining Stewart Haas (two seasons ago - 2 races at Charlotte), he has posted finishes of 11th and 13th. He was more competitive in the first race than the second race. In those two races, he has compiled 12.0 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 91.2 driver rating. It also should be noted that he held 5.5 average start position in those race, so starting up front has also been a blessing for him, too. Not that it translated to him finishing up front, though. Overall, Aric has been good at Charlotte. Not great, but better than he has most of his career here.
#11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has has a pretty good career record here at Charlotte! For his career, he has a 11.4 career average finish overall. That's impressive any way you want to slice it, but he has been hit or miss in the finish department over the last few seasons. He finished 17th in last season's race here at Charlotte, but prior to that he has finished 3 straight races in the top 5. Overall in the last 4 races, he has compiled 7.3 average finish with 8.7 average running position and 104.8 driver rating. He ranked 2nd, 2nd and T-3rd in the series among those 4 races in the series. I would say that last season's race was his worst race by far of the four races. If you exclude the 2014 race, it might have been his worst race since the 2010 spring's race here. And he wasn't horrible in 2019's race by any means honestly. He finished 17th, while holding 12.6 average running posiiton and 88.7 driver rating. Not great, but I seen much worse numbers by drivers in similar equipment and it was only one race, too.
#12-Ryan Blaney: We talk about how talented Ryan Blaney is and sometimes we forget just how inconsistent he is. In fact, I mentioned it on a fantasy racing forum earlier this season. Just before the race, someone had a concerned about starting Johnson. And I raised the quesition, what makes Ryan Blaney any less risky? Valid question. Ironically, Johnson ended up in the top 10 in that race and Ryan Blaney had more bad luck. I guess my point is Blaney is just one of those guys that has huge upside but just as much risk. So as usual, it is tough to get a good read on him overall. Charlotte has been no exceptation, either. In his career at Charlotte, he has no finish better than 8th and that's his sole top 10 finish in 8 starts. In fact, he has no finish better than 13th and that 13th place finish came in the most recent race here. He was top 10 good in the first two stages, before finishing a misleading 13th place finish. Two seasons ago, he was top 5 good before having a engine let go. So he has been strong in the past at Charlotte and has had speed on the intermediate tracks in 2020. Really fast overall!
#18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy is one of the best drivers in the series. And that has been the case at Charlotte in the past, too. In 30 career starts, he has compiled 12.9 average finish. In the last 5 races here, he has finished 6th or better in 4 of those races. Over the past two seasons, he has posted finishes of 1st and 3rd. Back in 2018, he led 377 laps from the pole on his way to victory lane. In last season's race, he led 79 laps on his way to a 3rd place finish. In the most recent spring race (prior to those two races), he ended up finishing 2nd place. He has been so-so on the intermediate tracks in 2020. So I do have questions, but he is a super talented driver so I am not too worried about him.
#19-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr has had a lot of bad luck this season and some of that has been his pit crew. And others? Well it has happened on the racetrack. The one consistent thing: The #19 car has consistent been the fastest JGR car and a threat for a win. Truex Jr always has seemed like a driver to be that will have some rotten lucks for unfair strenches. He has been very competitive in 2020, but he just hasn't had the results to show for a whole lot, sadly. Charlotte has been a great track for Truex Jr! How great? He has finished in the top 5 in 7 of his last 8 races here. In 6 of those 8 races, he has finished inside the top 3! Even better? He has finished 1st, 2nd, 1st and 3rd in his last three starts at this track overall. He will be tough to beat here at Charlotte!
#20-Erik Jones: Jones hasn't really impressed so far this season overall and I cannot say that I am super high on Jones as of right now. He finished 7th in his first career start at this racetrack, but has finished worse with each passing start. Good news for him at Charlotte? He finished dead last in his most recent start at this track! So that trend will change in 2020. Bad news? He hasn't looked good early in the season and probably been the worst JGR car in terms of speed. I think Jones' most realistic finish range is probably just outside of the top 10, but he does the upside to be a high-single digit finisher.
#22-Joey Logano: Logano has won multiple times in 2020 and he will look to keep things rolling here at Charlotte. A track where he has found success in the past. Problem? He has finished outside of the top 20 in 4 of his last 5 races at Charlotte. Good news? He finished 2nd in last season's race here and has shown speed in pretty much every race here in the 2020 season. I don't have a lot to say about Joey Logano, but at the very least he will have a chance to contend for a top 10 finish.
#24-William Byron: I have been fairly high on the HMS cars since they have unloaded in the second race of the season, so I will keep hyping that train this weekend at Charlotte. I probably like Byron more than most do and a lot of that is because how he has performed on the intermediate tracks in 2020. Especially the Las Vegas' race. I would put the most weight into that race, if I were looking at data! Not the ideal 1.5 mile track to look at, but it's better than nothing. I think he will be a lot stronger on this type of track than those flat tracks!
#48-Jimmie Johnson: Heading into the 2020 season, I was not very high on Jimmie Johnson. He has changed my mind some, but I would be suprised if he ended winning a race in 2020. He's somewhere between elite and just good enough. He won't lead a lot of laps at the front, but probably has a chance to be top 10 good most weekend. Kinda what I am expecting out of him here at Charlotte. And he has been very good at Charlotte in his career and most recently. In 5 of his last 6 races here, he has finished in the top 8. He last won here in 2016 and followed it up with a 17th place finish in 2017 spring's race. Since then? He has finished of 8th, 5th and 7th. On top of that, the HMS cars were really strong at places like Las Vegas and Cali. Again, not the perfect places to look at, but it's something.
#88-Alex Bowman: Like his teammates, I think they will be better than most people will give them credit for. These Hendrick cars has been impressive at times in 2020 and I think they can impress once again here at Charlotte. Bowman was strong at Las Vegas and then out did that by winning at Cali. And he was not just strong, but probably the best driver in the field that day. It went Bowman/Blaney, then a gap to the field. And some could make the case that he would had won the Las Vegas' race, if that race went green to the finish. Keep your eyes on the #88 car this weekend!
**All stats from DriverAverages and FRCS.PRO
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
