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Homestead Preview -
#1-Kurt Busch: Kurt has not been great at Homestead in his career, but he hasn't been bad. He won here back in 2002, but since then only has produced 3 top 5 finishes since the 2002 season. He also also only produced 5 Top 10 finishes in those 16 races. His last top 5 finish at Homestead was 11 races ago back in 2009. In his last 10 races here, he has not finished better than 8th place. How has he done during the 2020 season? He hasn't been a top 5 driver in terms of performance and seems to fade in the race at some point a lot. But for whatever reason, he always tend to surface to the front for the finish. I won't lie, I am not very high on CGR this season. I think both Kurt and Matt gonna have to outdrive their equipment to get really good results. Even when Larson was still in the car, you could tell that they were missing something. I believe Kurt can go out there and get a top 10 finish, but he could also struggle this weekend at Homestead. Especially, if we look at his numbers over the past decade here!
#2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski usually not heavily on my fantasy radar when I make my picks, but that mainly because he isn't the sexy fantasy pick that I typically look for. Such guys like Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr, Kevin Harvick, etc. He just goes out and does his job extremely well. He usually start up front, finish up front, lead laps and collect stage points, etc. He is just a well-rounded driver, in my opinion. He has performed well on the 1.5 mile intermediate tracks in 2020, too. Pretty much been top 10 good (and top 5 good in most of the races) in all of the races on this type of track. Like much of the past 5 years, he's extremely consistent on these intermediate tracks. At Homestead, he has also been verey consistent. In 2019, he ended up finishing 18th. Since 2013, he had finished 7th or better in 5 of his previous 6 races. Keselowski is someone that probably won't lead the most laps, but is probably one of the more safer picks for this weekend's race!
#3-Austin Dillon: I am not a fan of Austin Dillon on intermediate tracks. I do like Austin as a very solid fantasy pick as we aren't looking for wins or top 5 finishes or even top 10 finishes. We are looking at that middle area in the teens for Austin Dillon. That is the area that we are most likely hoping for him to finish on these intermeidate tracks. However, Homestead is one of Austin's better tracks. He has been awesome here in his career. Outside of his rookie's season, he has finished 14th or better now in 5 straight races. Even better? His final finishing position has gone up or stayed the same in every single start. It went from 25th (2014) to 14th (2015) to 12th (2016) to 11th (2017) to 11th (2018) to 8th (2019). And if you look at his finishes since we came back to racing? Austin Dillon is running extremely well and finishing in the top 12 consistently.
#4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick should be viewed as one of the favorites to win this weekend at Homstead! He is one of the very best drivers on these intermeidate tracks, as it is indeed his bread and butter. Homestead, he is as safe of a fantasy option as it get! He has compiled 12 straight top 10 finishes at this track and has wheeled off 6 straight top 4 finishes entering this Sunday's race! In his career, he holds a 6.42 career average finish with just 2 finishes outside of the top 10! His last non-top 10 finish was back in 2007. I don't know what more to say about him? He's fast week in and week out and this is probably a top 3 track for him in his career. On pure numbers, I would say that this is his best track in the series! Kevin Harvick is my early favorite pick to win!
#6-Ryan Newman: Newman just as ever will be that consistent fantasy option somewhere between 9th and 15th place guy. He does well everywhere, I think the key is to get the most of out of him. He is one of those rare guys that don't contend for wins, but sure of a lead lap finisher as it get in the Cup series. I wouldn't label Homestead as one of his best tracks, though. He has been good over the past 4 or 5 years, though. As he has finished 4 of the last 5 races here in the top 16. However, only one of those finishes ended up being better than 10th place. With that said, he has finished 7th (last season's race), 15th and 10th over his last three races at Homestead. Since returning to the track at Darlington, he has finished 4 of 5 races between 14th and 17th. Like typical Ryan Newman, he is sure of a lock for a low to mid-teen finish as it get. I bet he finishes in that same 14th to 17th place finish on Sunday afternoon!
#9-Chase Elliott: Elliott has been consistently one of the best drivers on the track this season, but some bad luck has prevented him from added to already impressive season. He should had won multiple other races this season, but he will have a chance to add more this weekend at Homestead. In 4 career starts at Homestead, he has finished in the top 15 in every single race so far. He had his worst race of his career in last season's race. He finished 15th and only compiled 81.8 driver rating. His driver rating has topped 91.0 in his first three starts at this track. In his previous two races (2018 and 2017), he had finishes of 7th and 5th. In his first career start in 2016, he ended up finishing in the 11th position. Elliott's past history isn't what makes him a great fantasy option, it is how strong he has been this season. I expect the #9 car to be fast and a top 5 contender!
#10-Aric Almriola: I kinda been disappointed by Aric as a whole overall in 2020. He had a few good races, but his performance on these intermediate tracks has been sort of lackluster. He had a couple good runs, but he also has had mutliple unimpressive runs, too. I am not overly high on him entering Sunday's race. I think he will hold the most value on these shorter flats and short tracks in general. He ran great two seasons ago at Homestead, where he ended up finishing in 9th. In 2019, he wasn't competitive and finished 22nd. He really struggled last season, after a hot start to the season. I think there's a lot of questions still about Aric and I would prefer to wait on him for now. I think later in the season, I will try to use him some more.
#11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has been either really good or really bad this season, when it comes to coming acorss the finish line at end of these races. Do I like Hamlin this weekend at Homestead? Well, I don't love him but he has a consistently good record here. He's a former two-time winner and has knocked off 7 straight top 12 finishes. In recent seasons, he has developed a trend. Over his last 5 races at Homestead, he has finished between 9th and 12th. He finished 7th in 2014 and won his most recent race back in 2013. Another thing I do like about Hamlin this weekend? He has finished well at most of the intermediate tracks this season. The JGR cars don't have an advantage on the field like in years past, but they are better than most of the field, though. Hamlin will likely be a top 10 driver with obvious top 5 upside.
#12-Ryan Blaney: When Ryan Blaney don't wreck or have some kind of issue, he will one of the best drivers in the series. Much like other young super talented drivers, he has a problem of being finishing the deal. Blaney really has made it tough for fantasy players this season, as he has either been top 5 or bust for the most part. He has been stupid fast on these intermediate tracks, though. That what makes him such an appealing fantasy option. The old saying in fantasy racing always has been, ''pick the fastest guys, we can't control the rest.'' That's so true, I think that's the biggest mistake some many players make. We become afraid because we get burned by a guy. Don't be! We can't control when a driver wrecks, but we can control who put in our lineups! I rather use someone like Blaney then start a guy who has no shot of ever sniffing the top 10 or top 15. Blaney will give you that upside that makes him worth taking a risk on!
#14-Clint Bowyer: I wouldn't recommend Bowyer on the intermediate tracks in general overall, even though he has performed farily well over the past couple seasons. He also was pretty fast at Atlanta, but kept had tires going down on him. At Homestead, he has knocked off 3 straight top 12 finishes and back-to-back top 10 finishes. That's great and all, but he has been pretty average this season on these 1.5 mile intermediate tracks. I will always choose current season data over past seasons' data, as past season data doesn't always translate as well. There's not a lot for me to say about Clint Bowyer. He could be good, but there's a lot better places to use him later in the season.
#18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy should be considered one of the favroites this weekend at Homestead! Since 2012 season, he has posted 6 Top 7 finishes at this track. That's 75% of the time! Over his last 5 races, he has finished in the top 6 in every single race. In 3 of those 5 races, he has finished either 1st or 2nd place! Over the past three seasons, he has compiled 2.3 average finish with 3.6 average running position and 124.2 driver rating. As impressive as that is, he isn't the best driver in the series over those three races. He ranked 2nd in all three of those stats to his teammate, Martin Truex Jr! I love him a lot this weeekend and he should be a top 5 driver this weekend!
#19-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr is coming off a big win at Martinsville and now looks toward another great track. He has been awesome at Homestead and you could considered him the odds on favorite to win on Sunday's afternoon! Over the past three seasons, he has been head and shoulders better than the field. His teammate, Kyle Busch has been awesome, too. But Truex Jr just has been slightly better overall. Not by much, though. In the last three races here, he has finished in the top 5 in every single stage. He's currently on a 3-race top 2 streak. If you can beat Truex Jr this weekend, then you just might go to victory lane!
#20-Erik Jones: Erik Jones has been so and so this season, but he is showing more promise as the season goes on. Erik finished a career-best 3rd place at Homestead in his last start at the track, but that remains his only good finish at Homestead. In his first two starts, he had finishes of 21st and 27th. Despite finishing 3rd place finish, he wasn't a top 5 driver, though. In that event, he only held 10.2 average running position and 99.4 driver rating. In 2020, he has been decent I guess. He hasn't ever been a top 5 contender, but latter part of the top 10 seems to where he has made his home. I think if everything goes right for him, then he could finish somewhere between 7th and 12th place. I think that's the most ideal place for him to finish, while still being realistic.
#22-Joey Logano: Joey has been pretty competitive most races this season and that should be the case, once again at Homestead. He's one of four drivers to sweep the top 5 in the past two seasons at Homestead! To make more of a case for him, he has finished in the top 6 in five straight races. I think Joey's biggest problem this season actually has been getting consistent finishes. When you start to look at his finishes, they really don't line with some of his performances. I am not saying that he has been a top 5 threat in every sinlge, but I can remember a few races where he hasn't gotten the finish that he deserved. I am high on him, but I have other drivers that I think will be better fantasy picks.
#24-William Bryon: When will William Byron go to victory lane finally? He has had his moments this season, but he also has not been on the level of his teammates. I can recall a few races this season, where he can't advance beyond that 12th to 15th place range overall. And the races where he performs well? He end up having a bad finish at the checkers flag. I think he will have some speed this weekend, but I don't believe he will end up going to victory lane, though.
#48-Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has been a little slower this season than Bowman and Elliott, but he has been competitive in most races. He has been at his best on the intermediate tracks. I think Johnson will be good once again this Sunday, I believe. At Homestead, he has been decent, I guess. In 5 of his last 7 races here, he has finished between 9th and 14th. He finished 27th in 2017 and won back in 2016. So overall, Johnson really haven't been great at Homestead in his career. He has been just good enough, in my opinion. For a guy who has won 7 championships in his career, you would think that he would had more top 5 ifnishes and more wins than he does. In 19 career starts, he has just one win and five top 5 finishes. As for Sunday's race? I say he will have a good shot for a top 10 finish!
#88-Alex Bowman: Bowman has had a lot of bad luck this season, but he also has had a lot of speed this season. There has only been a few drivers quicker than Alex Bowman this season. I also believe he is one of the most risky options this weekend at Homestead. With that said, he has top 5 upside if his team unloads with another fast No.88 car. There's not a lot more to say about him, honestly. If he's fast, then he will have a chance to be worth the gamble. That's pretty much the best pitch that you could make about Alex Bowman.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FRCS.PRO
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Homestead Preview -
#1-Kurt Busch: Kurt has not been great at Homestead in his career, but he hasn't been bad. He won here back in 2002, but since then only has produced 3 top 5 finishes since the 2002 season. He also also only produced 5 Top 10 finishes in those 16 races. His last top 5 finish at Homestead was 11 races ago back in 2009. In his last 10 races here, he has not finished better than 8th place. How has he done during the 2020 season? He hasn't been a top 5 driver in terms of performance and seems to fade in the race at some point a lot. But for whatever reason, he always tend to surface to the front for the finish. I won't lie, I am not very high on CGR this season. I think both Kurt and Matt gonna have to outdrive their equipment to get really good results. Even when Larson was still in the car, you could tell that they were missing something. I believe Kurt can go out there and get a top 10 finish, but he could also struggle this weekend at Homestead. Especially, if we look at his numbers over the past decade here!
#2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski usually not heavily on my fantasy radar when I make my picks, but that mainly because he isn't the sexy fantasy pick that I typically look for. Such guys like Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr, Kevin Harvick, etc. He just goes out and does his job extremely well. He usually start up front, finish up front, lead laps and collect stage points, etc. He is just a well-rounded driver, in my opinion. He has performed well on the 1.5 mile intermediate tracks in 2020, too. Pretty much been top 10 good (and top 5 good in most of the races) in all of the races on this type of track. Like much of the past 5 years, he's extremely consistent on these intermediate tracks. At Homestead, he has also been verey consistent. In 2019, he ended up finishing 18th. Since 2013, he had finished 7th or better in 5 of his previous 6 races. Keselowski is someone that probably won't lead the most laps, but is probably one of the more safer picks for this weekend's race!
#3-Austin Dillon: I am not a fan of Austin Dillon on intermediate tracks. I do like Austin as a very solid fantasy pick as we aren't looking for wins or top 5 finishes or even top 10 finishes. We are looking at that middle area in the teens for Austin Dillon. That is the area that we are most likely hoping for him to finish on these intermeidate tracks. However, Homestead is one of Austin's better tracks. He has been awesome here in his career. Outside of his rookie's season, he has finished 14th or better now in 5 straight races. Even better? His final finishing position has gone up or stayed the same in every single start. It went from 25th (2014) to 14th (2015) to 12th (2016) to 11th (2017) to 11th (2018) to 8th (2019). And if you look at his finishes since we came back to racing? Austin Dillon is running extremely well and finishing in the top 12 consistently.
#4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick should be viewed as one of the favorites to win this weekend at Homstead! He is one of the very best drivers on these intermeidate tracks, as it is indeed his bread and butter. Homestead, he is as safe of a fantasy option as it get! He has compiled 12 straight top 10 finishes at this track and has wheeled off 6 straight top 4 finishes entering this Sunday's race! In his career, he holds a 6.42 career average finish with just 2 finishes outside of the top 10! His last non-top 10 finish was back in 2007. I don't know what more to say about him? He's fast week in and week out and this is probably a top 3 track for him in his career. On pure numbers, I would say that this is his best track in the series! Kevin Harvick is my early favorite pick to win!
#6-Ryan Newman: Newman just as ever will be that consistent fantasy option somewhere between 9th and 15th place guy. He does well everywhere, I think the key is to get the most of out of him. He is one of those rare guys that don't contend for wins, but sure of a lead lap finisher as it get in the Cup series. I wouldn't label Homestead as one of his best tracks, though. He has been good over the past 4 or 5 years, though. As he has finished 4 of the last 5 races here in the top 16. However, only one of those finishes ended up being better than 10th place. With that said, he has finished 7th (last season's race), 15th and 10th over his last three races at Homestead. Since returning to the track at Darlington, he has finished 4 of 5 races between 14th and 17th. Like typical Ryan Newman, he is sure of a lock for a low to mid-teen finish as it get. I bet he finishes in that same 14th to 17th place finish on Sunday afternoon!
#9-Chase Elliott: Elliott has been consistently one of the best drivers on the track this season, but some bad luck has prevented him from added to already impressive season. He should had won multiple other races this season, but he will have a chance to add more this weekend at Homestead. In 4 career starts at Homestead, he has finished in the top 15 in every single race so far. He had his worst race of his career in last season's race. He finished 15th and only compiled 81.8 driver rating. His driver rating has topped 91.0 in his first three starts at this track. In his previous two races (2018 and 2017), he had finishes of 7th and 5th. In his first career start in 2016, he ended up finishing in the 11th position. Elliott's past history isn't what makes him a great fantasy option, it is how strong he has been this season. I expect the #9 car to be fast and a top 5 contender!
#10-Aric Almriola: I kinda been disappointed by Aric as a whole overall in 2020. He had a few good races, but his performance on these intermediate tracks has been sort of lackluster. He had a couple good runs, but he also has had mutliple unimpressive runs, too. I am not overly high on him entering Sunday's race. I think he will hold the most value on these shorter flats and short tracks in general. He ran great two seasons ago at Homestead, where he ended up finishing in 9th. In 2019, he wasn't competitive and finished 22nd. He really struggled last season, after a hot start to the season. I think there's a lot of questions still about Aric and I would prefer to wait on him for now. I think later in the season, I will try to use him some more.
#11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has been either really good or really bad this season, when it comes to coming acorss the finish line at end of these races. Do I like Hamlin this weekend at Homestead? Well, I don't love him but he has a consistently good record here. He's a former two-time winner and has knocked off 7 straight top 12 finishes. In recent seasons, he has developed a trend. Over his last 5 races at Homestead, he has finished between 9th and 12th. He finished 7th in 2014 and won his most recent race back in 2013. Another thing I do like about Hamlin this weekend? He has finished well at most of the intermediate tracks this season. The JGR cars don't have an advantage on the field like in years past, but they are better than most of the field, though. Hamlin will likely be a top 10 driver with obvious top 5 upside.
#12-Ryan Blaney: When Ryan Blaney don't wreck or have some kind of issue, he will one of the best drivers in the series. Much like other young super talented drivers, he has a problem of being finishing the deal. Blaney really has made it tough for fantasy players this season, as he has either been top 5 or bust for the most part. He has been stupid fast on these intermediate tracks, though. That what makes him such an appealing fantasy option. The old saying in fantasy racing always has been, ''pick the fastest guys, we can't control the rest.'' That's so true, I think that's the biggest mistake some many players make. We become afraid because we get burned by a guy. Don't be! We can't control when a driver wrecks, but we can control who put in our lineups! I rather use someone like Blaney then start a guy who has no shot of ever sniffing the top 10 or top 15. Blaney will give you that upside that makes him worth taking a risk on!
#14-Clint Bowyer: I wouldn't recommend Bowyer on the intermediate tracks in general overall, even though he has performed farily well over the past couple seasons. He also was pretty fast at Atlanta, but kept had tires going down on him. At Homestead, he has knocked off 3 straight top 12 finishes and back-to-back top 10 finishes. That's great and all, but he has been pretty average this season on these 1.5 mile intermediate tracks. I will always choose current season data over past seasons' data, as past season data doesn't always translate as well. There's not a lot for me to say about Clint Bowyer. He could be good, but there's a lot better places to use him later in the season.
#18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy should be considered one of the favroites this weekend at Homestead! Since 2012 season, he has posted 6 Top 7 finishes at this track. That's 75% of the time! Over his last 5 races, he has finished in the top 6 in every single race. In 3 of those 5 races, he has finished either 1st or 2nd place! Over the past three seasons, he has compiled 2.3 average finish with 3.6 average running position and 124.2 driver rating. As impressive as that is, he isn't the best driver in the series over those three races. He ranked 2nd in all three of those stats to his teammate, Martin Truex Jr! I love him a lot this weeekend and he should be a top 5 driver this weekend!
#19-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr is coming off a big win at Martinsville and now looks toward another great track. He has been awesome at Homestead and you could considered him the odds on favorite to win on Sunday's afternoon! Over the past three seasons, he has been head and shoulders better than the field. His teammate, Kyle Busch has been awesome, too. But Truex Jr just has been slightly better overall. Not by much, though. In the last three races here, he has finished in the top 5 in every single stage. He's currently on a 3-race top 2 streak. If you can beat Truex Jr this weekend, then you just might go to victory lane!
#20-Erik Jones: Erik Jones has been so and so this season, but he is showing more promise as the season goes on. Erik finished a career-best 3rd place at Homestead in his last start at the track, but that remains his only good finish at Homestead. In his first two starts, he had finishes of 21st and 27th. Despite finishing 3rd place finish, he wasn't a top 5 driver, though. In that event, he only held 10.2 average running position and 99.4 driver rating. In 2020, he has been decent I guess. He hasn't ever been a top 5 contender, but latter part of the top 10 seems to where he has made his home. I think if everything goes right for him, then he could finish somewhere between 7th and 12th place. I think that's the most ideal place for him to finish, while still being realistic.
#22-Joey Logano: Joey has been pretty competitive most races this season and that should be the case, once again at Homestead. He's one of four drivers to sweep the top 5 in the past two seasons at Homestead! To make more of a case for him, he has finished in the top 6 in five straight races. I think Joey's biggest problem this season actually has been getting consistent finishes. When you start to look at his finishes, they really don't line with some of his performances. I am not saying that he has been a top 5 threat in every sinlge, but I can remember a few races where he hasn't gotten the finish that he deserved. I am high on him, but I have other drivers that I think will be better fantasy picks.
#24-William Bryon: When will William Byron go to victory lane finally? He has had his moments this season, but he also has not been on the level of his teammates. I can recall a few races this season, where he can't advance beyond that 12th to 15th place range overall. And the races where he performs well? He end up having a bad finish at the checkers flag. I think he will have some speed this weekend, but I don't believe he will end up going to victory lane, though.
#48-Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has been a little slower this season than Bowman and Elliott, but he has been competitive in most races. He has been at his best on the intermediate tracks. I think Johnson will be good once again this Sunday, I believe. At Homestead, he has been decent, I guess. In 5 of his last 7 races here, he has finished between 9th and 14th. He finished 27th in 2017 and won back in 2016. So overall, Johnson really haven't been great at Homestead in his career. He has been just good enough, in my opinion. For a guy who has won 7 championships in his career, you would think that he would had more top 5 ifnishes and more wins than he does. In 19 career starts, he has just one win and five top 5 finishes. As for Sunday's race? I say he will have a good shot for a top 10 finish!
#88-Alex Bowman: Bowman has had a lot of bad luck this season, but he also has had a lot of speed this season. There has only been a few drivers quicker than Alex Bowman this season. I also believe he is one of the most risky options this weekend at Homestead. With that said, he has top 5 upside if his team unloads with another fast No.88 car. There's not a lot more to say about him, honestly. If he's fast, then he will have a chance to be worth the gamble. That's pretty much the best pitch that you could make about Alex Bowman.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FRCS.PRO
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
