Thursday, September 28, 2023

Football Betting Predictions (Thursday September 28th)

 Welcome to Timerssports

Last week, it wasn't a bad week betting as Wednesday and Sunday were the only day in the dreaded red. On Monday, we hammered the Saints. On Tuesday, we cashed in on WNBA. Wednesday, well let's just say luck wasn't on our side. On Thursday, we attacked the Niners' spread and Georgia state's spread. Then Friday, we got healthy on Wisconsin and Air Force. Saturday, it was a mix bags of tricks. We scored with FSU (money line) and Army on the spread. A poor outcome with Ole Miss and Colordo both failing to cover as sizable dogs. However, we ended the night with Kansas state ML, Notre Dame +3.5 and New Mexico State +3.5. And let's not talk about Sunday that much because it was depressing overall outcome

So far this week it is looking another strong week! We hit on the Eagles on Monday, a pair of strong underdog spreads in WNBA on Tuesday and a nice win by the Marlins on Wednesday. Folks, if you have enough of money to work with, then all it takes is one or two bets and you are a couple units up for the day. With limited sports going on right now, there isn't much more we can ask for! So once again, we are gonna keep the bets to a limited until the weekend roll around. In fact, I have two football bets for tonight that you should consider!

NFL 

Lions vs Packers 

Current line as of posting: -1.5/+1.5

The vibe I have gotten this week about this game is everyone is expecting the Lions to blow out the Packers. Frankly, I might be in the minority here but I don't hate the Packers here. They bring a good defense with a quality pass rush and secondary. On offense, they are getting back Jones and Watson most likely. I think the speed of Watson and Jones effectiveness/flexibility to line up anywhere will be huge for the Packers. I think if Aaron Rodgers was still the QB in Green Bay, they would be the favored. I think in general, people don't want to admit that Jordan Love isn't bad at all. He has been inaccurate, but some of that is on the playcalling. Love is making his 5th career start on Thursday night, he got some things he need to work on. However, he is better than people want to give him credit for. 

Lions have been one of the best feel good stories over the last couple years. I am a Packers fan and I want to see this Lions team do well. Just not when they play the Packers. They are a talented group. They have a consistent QB, a good running back room, a top 5 offensive line unit and playmakers all over the field. On defense side of the ball, they have been great at stopping the run and as always an underrated secondary group, too. 

What side should we bet on, though? I want to say the Packers, I really do! But I don't think the Packers defense will get more stops than the Packers offense will make big plays. If this was end of the season, I would love the Packers' chance a lot more because I believe this Packers team will get better as the season goes on. Last week was a great example of them wasting away several chances for big time scores. The fact that they only scored 18 points is sad. They were in position to drop 30 on the Saints, but didn't. Give me the more experienced and capable offense!    

Recommendation: Lions ML

CFB

Temple vs Tulsa 

Current line as of posting: -3/+3

This will be an interesting game and honestly, I don't know if there is a clear side to be on here. Tulsa has been battle tested more early in the season. However, they love to run the football which is a problem. Unless you can stay ahead of the sticks and score often, then it is hard to trust a run-minded team. I think injury to their QB run has been deadly early in the season. As they are gonna have to rely on the run game until they are more healthy at the position! 

Temple are the complete opposite, as they don't really run the ball well. They are a consistent pass-first offense that can move the football. I don't think they have been as good as we were expecting, though. I think many people were expecting them to take a bigger step forward with their offense. Much like Tulsa, they have a strength (pass game) going against Tulsa's pass defense (biggest weakness). 

This matchup kinda reminds me a lot of last Friday night's game between San Jose state and Air Force. One team love running the ball and the other like doing it damage through the air. In theory, the rushing team would like to get up early and dominate the TOP (time of possession). Exactly what Air Force did in that game. Can Tulsa do that? I think they can cause huge problems for Temple's run defense, but they aren't on the Air Force level. And to me, that tells me if Tulsa can't dominate like that then it kinda favor Temple on the spread. Temple don't need points on each drive, but they do need to force Tulsa into 2nd and 3rd and longs. If Tulsa only get a couple yards on first or second down, then Tulsa will not cover this game. 

Recommendation: Temple +3.5 

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