Saturday, August 01, 2015

Fantasy Nascar Update (Pocono)

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A:

1. Kevin Harvick - Harvick is the best pick in the field this weekend. He was not very happy in the 2nd practice of the weekend though. However his team got his car where he needed to be in final practice. In final practice he was 4th on the charts and seems to have a lot of speed. He will roll off from 2nd. It helps that Harvick have finished 2nd in last two races at Pocono. Earlier this season he finished 2nd at this track. I think he have a top 3 car heading into Sunday race, but not sure if it a dominant car like at Indy last weekend though.

My Overall Ranking: 1st

2. Kyle Busch - Busch made a solid case for the top spot, but Busch track record isn't as good as Harvick's. In the end that was different between 1st and 2nd. Truthfully they are pretty dead even in my eyes heading into Sunday's race. I think more people will roll with Busch than Harvick. Mainly because of his hot streak. Even though he have one of the best cars this weekend. However if Busch wasn't on this hot streak, then I doubt people standards would be as high as they are right now. Anything outside of a top 3 finish would probably be a disappointment. Based on what I have saw this weekend, I would be very shocked to see him finishing outside of that range.

My Overall Ranking: 2nd

3. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is a 4-time winner at Pocono! He could make it 5-times on Sunday though. He starts inside the top 10 and have a pretty good car in every practice session. Hamlin sweep the top 5 in both practice on Saturday. He also have a lot of momentum going for him since Daytona. Only once in that span have he finished outside of the top 6 and that was at New Hampshire. At New Hampshire he finished 14th for those that are wondering. Joe Gibbs Racing seems to have the edge on the competition at the moment, so there no reason to believe it won't continue at Pocono. Based on practice, current momentum, track record,etc I think Hamlin is a top 5 fantasy pick.

My Overall Ranking: 3rd

4. Joey Logano -Logano is probably the most underrated driver on a weekly basis. He is having a down year at Penske. Yes a guy who have more Top 5 since the last Pocono race than any other driver in the series is having a down season. Hard to believe but according to most people he is. However that won't stop him from being a top 5 fantasy pick once again. I feel like Penske is a step behind JGR and the 4 car at the moment. On the flip side, Logano have finished 2nd in the past 3 races (Kentucky , New Hampshire and Indy). He have lost to Busch every single time. It might be time for a change and Logano may be the first in line to take advantage of that. I thought he was pretty good on Saturday overall. I have him pinned as a top 5 fantasy pick.

My Overall Ranking: 4th

5. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson will roll off from 12th, but not sure if he can win on Sunday. I am sure he will be fine, but I am not willing to bet he anything better than a top 10 finisher. I personally cannot get behind any driver out of the HMS stable. They are seems to be top 10 or top 12 good, but not top 5 great. When I use a guy like Jimmie Johnson, I want him to have top 5 potential. Not only top 5 potential, but legitimate winning potential. He haven't shown me that this weekend, so I am lower on him than most. I think he finishes somewhere around 6th-8th place range.

My Overall Ranking: 6th

Other Options - Brad K (8th), Dale Jr (9th), Kenseth (10th), Gordon (12th) and Newman (15th)

B:

1. Kurt Busch - I believe Kurt is the best fantasy option in this tier. He starts from 6th and probably have top 10 to top 5 car for Sunday's race. I don't think Busch have the car to beat, but I think he will hang around 5th or 6th most of the race like he did earlier this season at this racetrack. He finished 8th last weekend at Indy, but he hang around 6th most of the day though. Indy and Pocono are the most comparable tracks to each other. Honestly I think this is Busch's best track left before the chase starts. So if you play Yahoo Fantasy Racing, then this is a good place to unload the driver of the 41 car. I have him across the line in the 5th in my overall rankings.

My Overall Ranking: 5th

2. Carl Edwards - I debated weather Edwards deserved to be ranked inside the top 10 or outside the top 10. He looked solid in practice, but not real sure if he can run up front though. I think he will be a top 10 driver though. Right now it seems he is behind his teammates at the moment. Edwards just doesn't seems to have the speed to run up front for a entire race like Busch and Hamlin. Edwards will roll off from 8th and posted the 6th-best ten lap average in final practice. However only 9 cars posted a ten lap average though. So I am not too sure how much that means for tomorrow. Especially since only nine drivers were included in that data. I have him across the line in 7th in my final rankings.

My Overall Ranking: 7th

3. Martin Truex Jr - I am not sure what to expect from Truex. He ran well last weekend at Indy, but I haven't seen enough consistency lately from the 78 team. I do like Truex for a top 12 run, but I am not sure if he have enough to run top 5 though. He probably have enough upside to be considered a top 10 fantasy pick, but I cannot say what he is beyond that. Pocono been a tough track him from a career point of view, so it hard saying how he will do. On the flip side, he won earlier this season so you cannot discount him either. I have him across the line in 11th in my overall rankings.

My Overall Ranking: 11th

4. Kyle Larson - You know I want to trust Larson, but every time I start to think ''he starting to turn it around'', he goes out and screw everything up. Weather it wrecking in the race or qualifying poorly, he cannot catch a darn break. I don't trust anyone starting that deep, however I think he have a good enough car to drive up through the field. Unfortunately I don't think he can finish inside the top 10 though.Thinking back to earlier this season at Pocono, there was only one driver who finished inside the top 10 that didn't start inside the top 15. That driver was? Matt Kenseth who started 19th. The odds are certainly against him if we are taking out past history with starting position.

My Overall Ranking: 13th

5. Kasey Kahne - I am not very high on Kahne this weekend. He is rolling off from 16th , but I don't think he finishes much better than that. He showed flashes of speed in both practices on Saturday, but not enough for me to feel good about him. I think he will have the potential to run inside or near the top 10, but his recent run of bad finishes make me want to avoid him. Kahne have finished 19th or worse in 4 straight races dating back to Daytona. He is probably a top 15 fantasy option after we taking considering of everything. I just wished he would have qualified a little better. Even though it a lot better than Indianapolis! I have him arcoss the line in 14th in my overall rankings.

My Overall Ranking: 14th

Other Options - Jamie Mac (16th), Austin Dillon (17th), Paul Menard (18th),  Greg Biffle (19th) and Tony Stewart (20th)

C:

1.  David Ragan - The C-list is a complete mess this week. I really don't like anyone, but Ragan probably is the best driver with the best equipment. Sometimes that exactly what it boils down to. I really don't see anyone from this grouping tier list finishing inside the top 20, so it really who benefit your game the best. I think Ragan will finish ahead of everyone in this tier, but where Danica finishes will be the difference though. I think Ragan have a decent car, but this is not one of his best racetracks. That worries a lot, but what other choices do we have?

My Overall Ranking: 22nd

2. Danica Patrick - Danica always seems to wreck at Pocono, but she probably have the best in this tier though. She showed speed on Saturday, but I doubt she can finish though. It hard saying how she will do honestly. If she can avoid trouble, then I think she is a legit top 20 fantasy option, but unfortunately I don't trust her
to accomplish that. With tracks such as Michigan coming up, there are better places to unload her. Even though I don't hate rolling the dice and hoping for the best on Sunday. Especially since this is one of the places where most people will avoid her. I have her across the line 24th.

My Overall Ranking: 24th

3. Justin Allagier -  Justin starts from 31st and should be a top 25-ish fantasy option, however I wouldn't bank him finishing 20th again like he did in June. I think it a very misleading finish for him. In that race he struggled pretty bad and never had anything beyond 25th. I believe he was able to pick 5-6 position at the end because of the way the cautions/pit cyle fell. If that race played out normally he would have finished 24th or 25th at best. That exactly where I expect him to finish on Sunday as well.

My Overall Ranking: 26th

**Matt Aleza was a huge contributor to this article/post.

Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans