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We are headed to New Hampshire this weekend! This is probably my favorite flat-track on the schedule. It's only one-mile long in length. Typically we don't see a lot of wrecks, but we usually see a lot of comers and goers. A lot of this have to do with pit strategies. So who should you pick? Good question. I would highly recommend looking at track data from recent New Hampshire races. Also I would look who have momentum and who doesn't. You can also look at data from similar flat-short tracks. But since we have a race under our belts at New Hampshire this season, I don't think it necessary. Even though it probably doesn't hurt either!
1-Jamie Mac: I wasn't very impressed with JMac at Chicagoland, he struggled most of the day. Heck I would have thought his teammate Kyle Larson was in the chase, not Jamie. However he didn't do anything that eliminated him from championship contention, either. He need a strong run and New Hampshire is the place to do it at! Earlier this season, he had strong showing and was running around the top 10 when his engine went soar with under 30 laps to go. On the plus side, JMac have been a strong performer here recently. Over the past 5 races at New Hampshire, he have compiled 12.6 average finish, 10.4 average start, 11.8 average running position and 92.2 driver rating. In that 5-race span, he have finished 3 of the 5 races inside the top 12. Including 2 top 5 finishes. His other two finishes were 16th and 26th. I don't expect him to blow us away, but I do think he will be a top 15 or so finisher. If we get lucky, he finishes inside the top 10!
2-Brad Keselowski: I was disappointed that Keselowski didn't finish better at Chicagoland! He finished 8th, but wasn't even that good most of the day. However he comes to a track that he knows very well. Earlier this season, he finished 2nd and probably had the 2nd or 3rd best car all day long. On top of that, he led the most laps (100). Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 5.0 average finish (2nd-best in series), 7.8 average start (3rd-best in series), 5.8 average running position (best in the series), 332 laps led (most laps led in the series) and 122.2 driver rating (best in the series). He ranked top 3 in every major stat over the past 5 races at New Hampshire! However for those that like trends: Keselowski have finished better in the July race than the September race over the past three seasons. Know what make that stat so impressive? He have finished 11th or better in 8 straight races at this track. Including 6 Top 6 finishes (5 top 5 finishes actually). I like Keselowski a lot this weekend at one of his best tracks on the schedule!
3-Austin Dillon: I was pretty impressed by Austin Dillon at Chicagoland, but then he had problems. He have definitely have taken that next step at the cup level. He consistency running in the mid-teen now, instead of the mid-20s. Anytime a driver can run near the top 15, I think he should be given fantasy consideration! Dillon have been a trendy fantasy option over the past 2 months and i think it will continue here. Earlier this season, he finished a career-high 8th at New Hampshire. In 3 career starts, he have compiled 11.0 average finish, 23.0 average start, 19.3 average running position and 76.6 drive rating. His worst career finish was 14th last season in his debut at this track. In fact, he have improved his finishing position in every start at this track. I don't know if he can improve upon 8th-place, but he is certainly worth the gamble I would think.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick had a interesting day in the Windy city, didn't he? Personally I think it was ridiculous. It all could have been avoided by pitting immediately. Oh well! Don't be shocked to see the 4 team bring a dominant racecar this weekend. I think Harvick will be in a pissed off mood this weekend that isn't good for the competition. Earlier this season, he was very strong and had the car to beat probably. He was impressive on the long runs and would have won if the race played out differently. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 12.6 average finish,10.6 average start, 9.6 average running position, 163 laps led and 100.3 driver rating. Harvick have finished 3rd in his past two starts. His two starts before that, he had results of 30th and 20th. Obviously due to issues in the race. From June 2010 to July 2013 (8 races), he finished 5th-12th in every race, but one. That race he finished 21st in 2011. From a career point of view, he been solid. In 29 career starts, he have 13.5 average finish with 15 top 10 finishes and 7 top 5 finishes. Including his lone win coming in 2006.
5-Kasey Kahne: If you still have faith in Kasey Kahne to score another top 10 this season, then I will give you credit. However I think you will be waiting to next season. His last top 10 was Sonoma and that was 12 races ago now. He have struggled to produce consistent results here. Earlier this season, he finished 19th but was a teen driver most of the day. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 20.2 average finish, 9.2 average start, 12.0 average running position and 88.4 driver rating. Not real impressive stats. In that span, his best finish was 11th coming back last July. Kahne actually won here with HMS back in his debut in 2012. He followed that up with a 5th place run later that season. Since? Only two top 15 finishes. To make matter even worse, his two lowest finishes since joining HMS at this track have came in the past two September races. With finishes of 37th and 23rd.
10-Danica Patrick: Felt like early in the season, Patrick was pretty consistent. But she have now fallen off with her finishes. She have struggled to get decent finishes and that not encouraging. Earlier this season, she finished 24th. She posted a poor 56.6 driver rating. That was her career-worst driver rating (minus her debut in 2013) at New Hampshire. Last season she had finishes of 19th and 22nd. So not like she cannot finish well at this track. That's not my concern at all. My concern is her consistency. One week she can finish inside the top 20. The next she finishes outside of the top 25. Well I guess that what you get when you have Danica in your lineup, right?
11-Denny Hamlin: I was shocked that Hamlin won last Sunday! He wasn't that good in practice, plus he spun at start of the race. But that Nascar for you! Earlier this season, he finished 14th and was never really a true contender. New Hampshire was once a great track for Hamlin. From 2009 to 2012 (7 races), he finished inside the top 3 in 5 of 7 races. Including 4 top 2 finishes. Since? His best finish been 8th last July. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 18.4 average finish, 6.6 average start, 15.6 average running position and 95.6 driver rating. In that 5-race span, he have 3 top 15 finishes. However only one of them ended inside the top 10. Last September he finished a career-worst 37th after posting one of his strongest races since his 2012 dominating season at New Hampshire. He led 32 laps in that race and probably would have posted top 5 finish in that race.
18-Kyle Busch: Busch dominated Chicagoland early on, but faded in the second half. Especially on the late restart. However he have another chance to return to victory lane at New Hampshire. This is his best racetrack left on the schedule and could be very hard to beat. Earlier this season, he went to victory lane but didn't have the best car. He was closer to a 3rd-place car. However the cautions fell his way late. Especially after the way he pitted. Over the past 5 races, he have compiled 3.0 average finish, 5.2 average start, 6.0 average running position, 211 laps led and 119.3 driver rating. In those 5 races, he have finished either 1st or 2nd in 4 of those races. It doesn't hurt that Busch have been one of the most consistent drivers in the series since winning at Sonoma. Only twice (Daytona and Pocono) have he finished outside of the top 10. That's pretty impressive!
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is coming off a 2nd-place run at Chicagoland. He now comes to another decent track. Earlier this season, he finished 7th after starting on the pole. He led 19 laps in the race and posted the 5th-best average running position (7.0) and 5th-best driver rating (108.6). He been a solid performer at this track. Over the past 5 races, he have compiled 10.8 average finish, 11.0 average start, 12.8 average running position and 89.4 driver rating. Edwards have been very consistent! He have finished 20th or better in 21 of 22 career races at New Hampshire. Including 3 top 10 finishes in his past 5 starts at this racetrack. JGR seems to be on it right now too. They have won 3 straight races and 6 of the past 8 NSCS races overall. Hard to bet against them right now, until someone else steps up and prove otherwise.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth struggled at Chicagoland to my surprise and honest not sure why. One of his teammates led the most laps and the other two finished 1-2. Earlier this season, he finished 6th at this track. He wasn't quite that good. He was a high-single digit driver for most of the race and held a 11.0 average running position. This is a good track for him though. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 8.2 average finish, 12.0 average start, 8.0 average running position and 111.9 driver rating. Really Kenseth only had one standout race in that 5-race span. That was in 2013 during the chase race! He was just dominant that day. He led 106 laps and held off a hard-charging Kyle Busch. Since? He been pretty good with finishes of 4th, 21st and 6th. Kesneth should be a top 10 driver.
22-Joey Logano: Logano finished 6th at the chase opener last Sunday at Chicagoland. Now he heads to another good track. Earlier this season, he finished 4th after starting 2nd. He is a very overlooked driver here if you look at stats from a far. Over the past 5 races, he have compiled 19.8 average finish, 9.2 average start, 15.4 average running position and 92.5 driver rating. Those aren't great stats, so why am I so high on him? Well let look deeper into the stats. In his first three starts with Penske, he posted finishes of 40th, 14th and 40th. His last two races? 1st and 4th. He led 73 laps last season in this race on his way to victory lane. In fact, he have led in 4 straight races here.
24-Jeff Gordon: I was watching Sunday's race at Chicagland and I couldn't stop from just laughing. Because Jeff Gordon finish pretty much summed up his year. I was very surprised that he was that strong though. However I knew he would be fast in the race after watching him in practice. Question is can he keep it going? I don't know. He been hit or miss lately at this track. Over the past 5 races, he have compiled 17.2 average finish, 11.0 average start, 10.0 average running position and 96.7 driver rating. In that 5-race span, he have 3 top 15 finishes. Including 2 top 10 finishes with a best finish of 9th coming earlier this season. Gordon been historically good at New Hampshire. In 41 races, he have held 11.3 average with 3 wins and 16 Top 5 finishes. I think he will finish in the top 10, but I wouldn't bank on anything beyond that though.
27-Paul Menard: Menard struggled last week and I don't think it get any better at New Hampshire. Menard isn't a very good performer on the short-flat tracks. He usually inconsistent at this type track. That what he been this season. With finishes of 14th and 15th at Phoenix and Richmond. He also had finishes of 23rd and 26th at Martinsville and 2nd Richmond race. He was the same way last season as well. So not like this is anything new to us. New Hampshire been one of his worst career tracks on the schedule. Over the past 5 races, he have compiled 19.6 average finish, 17.6 average start, 17.8 average running position and 71.4 driver rating. In 17 career races, Menard have been inconsistent at best . He have only recorded 6 top 20 finishes in those 17 races. His best effort came in 2012 with a 12th place. He actually only have two top 15 finishes! Over his past 4 races alone, he have finished 19th or worse in 3 of the past 4 races. So not exactly encouraging!
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch should have won last week, but a late caution screwed him over. Personally I didn't really see that coming, but I am not totally shocked though. Earlier this season, Kurt finished 10th with respectable 9.0 average running position and 103.3 driver rating. He haven't found the results here lately though. Over the past 5 races, he have compiled 21.4 average finish with 14.8 average running position and 86.3 driver rating. In that 5-race span, his best finish was 10th in July. In fact that have been his only top 10 finish since July 2011 where he finished 10th once again. Last time he finished better than 10th place? July 2010. From July 2008 to September 2010, he went on his best streak of finishes at this track. He recorded 5 straight top 6 finishes. One of the things that standout about Kurt's track record is he doesn't often go on top 10 streaks. Since entering the Cup Series ranks in 2001, he have only scored back-to-back top 10 finishes three times. In 2002, he swept the top 10. From July 2004 to July 2005, he finished inside the top 2 in 3 straight races. The third time was obviously from 2008 to 2010. He been solid on this type track this season though.
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson is enjoying one of the best stench of races in his young career. Over the past 8 races, he have finished 13th or better in 7 races. Including 2 of the past 3 race ending in top 10 finishes. Earlier this season at New Hampshire, he finished 31st. He finished 2 laps down in that race. It all started with a pit stop under green as caution came out. He didn't beat the pace car back to the line and went a lap down. After that he never could get back on the lead lap. After this poor showing, I think Larson got very motivated to turn his season around. He probably realized that his chase chances were over, so since he been just racing. Working out pretty well for him too. In 2014, he finished 2nd and 3rd. I think he will get back on track this weekend at New Hampshire.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson probably should have finished inside the top 5 at Chicagoland. But after significant contact with Kevin Harvick. After that he was never the same. At New Hampshire, he could be in store for a very good race. Earlier this season, he finished 22nd and a lap down. Over the past 5 races, he have compiled 15.8 average finish, 13.8 average start, 17.6 average running position and 85.2 driver rating. In those 5 races, he have finished 4th-6th three times. The other two races resulted in 22nd and 42nd. Historically he been very strong. Over the past 20 races (dating back to 2005), he have put together 15 Top 10 finishes. Including 8 top 5 finishes.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Not sure what Truex was thinking last Sunday at end of the race! Baffled why he only took two tires on that final pit stop. Regardless he wouldn't have restarted with the race lead as Gordon and Kurt Busch stood out. Instead of finishing near the top 5, he finished 13th. Not the smartest decision, but oh well. New Hampshire is a decent track for Truex. He been consistent driver for him. Over the past 5 races, he have compiled 12.4 average finish, 16.0 average start, 14.8 average running position and 87.7 driver rating. This have been a solid track for him since joining the 78 team. He have finished 12th in every start. Dating back to his last start with MWR in 2012, he have finished 12th or better in 4 straight races at this track. Not sure what it worth, but two weeks ago at Richmond he had a top 5 car for most of the event. Until he faded late in that race!
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr have gotten off to solid start to the chase, but he will need to show more speed to be a contender. At New Hampshire, he should be a top 10 contender! Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 8.8 average finish with 10.8 average running position and 99.5 driver rating. Earlier this season, he finished 5th. Last season he had finishes of 9th and 10th. Overall he have knocked off 4 straight top 10 finishes at this track. More impressively, he have finished inside the top 15 in past 10 of the last 11 races. Only race he didn't? 17th place. I really like him because of his consistency this season. He have struggled this season on this type track. However he have finished 5th in his last two races on short-flat racetracks though.
****All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet
Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
