Monday, September 14, 2015

Fantasy Nascar Preview (ChicagoLand)

Welcome to TimersSports


We are headed to the Windy City for the first race of the 2015 chase! This is the first of five 1.5 mile racetracks headed into the final 10 races of the 2015 season. You can expect to see the best teams up front all day long on Sunday, so don't try to get cute. If you wanted to get cute with your fantasy lineups, then I think your opportunity have passed. Here on out, I am expecting teams to bring their best cars to the track. All season long we have seen a small group of drivers dominate on this type track and I would be shocked if it changed on Sunday.

Let get started!


1-JMac: JMac is part of the chase for the first time in his career! I said it all season that JMac is having his one of his most consistent season ever (actually 2nd-most consistent season)! Since joining Cup full-tme in 2003, he have only once posted an average finish better than 15.0 and that was in 2004 (13.2). Of course that year he scored 23 Top 10s and ever since haven't topped 13 in a season. Chicagoland is a decent track for him the past few season. Over the past 3 races at Chicagoland, he have compiled 16.3 average finish, 16.7 average start, 16.0 average running position, and 81.4 driver rating. Last season he finished 9th after leading 32 laps. That was his first top 10 finish 2010 (5th) and his 3rd overall top 10 finish in 12 career races. In 2012 and 2013, he finished 19th and 21st. But the CGR cars competitiveness was down in those seasons. This season he been much better and have been pretty reliable. On 1.5 Mile racetracks this season, he have put together an 17.2 average finish with 10.7 average start and 15.5 average running position. To be fair, he wrecked out at Atlanta, so if you take that out his average finish is 12.6. JMac should be a great value for those that feel like being different this week.

2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski was strong at Richmond, but he didn't have much for the JGR cars though. He comes to Chicagoland with 10 straight 10 finishes and should be able to easily top that mark once again on Sunday afternoon. Last season he won this race! Over the past 3 races here, he have compiled 3.0 average finish, 13.3 average start, 6.3 average running position and 121.3 driver rating. He been pretty good on similar racetracks this season, but I don't think he will go back to victory lane though. On 6 races at 1.5 mile tracks, he have compiled 6.8 average finish with 7.8 average running position and 110.2 driver rating. Keselowski is only one of three drivers to sweep the top 10 this season on this type track, but he only have one top 5 to his name. What race was that, you ask? All the way back at Texas (5th)! Keselowski obviously isn't the same driver he was last season at this time, but I still think he is one of the top drivers to pick this week. Easily in the top 10 and possibly top 5 too.

3-Austn Dillon: Dillon should contend for a top 20 finish, but beyond that is questionable! Last season he finished 16th in his event, after starting 15th. Dillon is usually at his best on this type racetrack and ran pretty well this season on intermediate racetracks. However been inconsistent on the 1.5 mile venues in 2015. In 6 races, he have put together 23.7 average finish, 17.3 average start, 22.0 average running position and 67.0 driver rating. He only have one finish better than 20th on this type track (16th-Charlotte). So you can see why I don't think he will anything better than a top 20 option.

4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick will coming off one of his few bad finishes this season at Richmond, but should easily rebound this weekend though. Last season he had one of the strongest cars and led 79 laps. However he faded to 5th been the checkers waved.  Over the past 3 races here, he have compiled 6.7 average finish, 21.3 average start, 11.0 average running position and 102.0 driver rating. From career point of view, Harvick been very strong! In 14 career races, he have held 9.6 average finish 8 Top 5 and 9 top 10 finishes. Including two wins in his first two starts at this track in 2001 and 2002. He also been a strong performer this season on the 1.5 mile intermediate racetracks, he have post 4.0 average finish, 8.5 average start, 4.3 average running position, 433 laps led and 125.6 driver rating. He been miles better than everyone this season than everyone and pretty much ranked inside the top 2 in every major stat category.

5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne missed the chase for the first time since joining Hendrick MotorSports! It wasn't really shocking either though. His last top 10 finish was at Sonoma and only have two top 15 finish since then. Last season he finished 13th, but wasn't much better than that. Over past 3 races here, he have compiled 9.3 average finish, 9.7 average start, 10.3 average running position and 98.6 driver rating. He finished 12th in 2013 but probably should have finished inside the top 10 in that race instead. In 2012, he finished 3rd and that was his best performance of his career at this track. However Kasey's performance over the past two season have regressed big time and probably won't be able to even backup a top 10 finish. On the other six 1.5 mile racetracks, he have compiled 15.8 average finish, 11.8 average start, 10.5 average running position and 95.8 driver rating. Since Kentucky, I think he have really downslided and now doesn't hold much fantasy value. If you cannot consistency finish inside the top 15, then you don't much relevancy in my opinion. As I always have believed consistency is king in fantasy racing!

11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is coming off another top 10 finish, but he after is coming off a torn ACL! That injury didn't stop him from running well at Richmond. If he can run well at Richmond without any problems, then I don't think it will a problem at a track like Chicagoland. Last season he finished 6th in this race. Over the past 3 races here, he have compiled 18.3 average finish, 18.0 average start, 11.7 average running position and 84.3 driver rating. In 2013, he blew a engine in this race. In 2012 he finished 16th, so he could use some improvement here. On 1.5 mile intermediate racetracks this season, he have posted  17.7 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 97.6 driver rating. He obviously haven't the gotten results he deserved this season, but he is showing more consistency now that JGR have picked up their performance. He should be least good for a top 10 finish on Sunday!

18-Kyle Busch: Busch is coming off a 2nd-place run at Richmond, but he never really had anything for teammate Matt Kenseth though. He heads to Chicago with a lot to prove to the the non-believers as he have never won a chase race. I think that could change this weekend. Last season he finished 7th, but he led 46 and probably had a top 5 car (or close to it). In 2013, he was very strong and probably would have won if he got around teammate Kenseth. However he couldn't quite get to him at the end. Over the past 3 races here, he have compiled 4.3 average finish, 11.3 average start, 5.7 average running position and 117.2 driver rating. I believe JGR is running better than they were in 2013 at this time and that saying something snce they won 11 of the 36 races that season. Busch should be considered for your fantasy team this week as he been one of the hottest drivers in the series since returning from injury!

19-Carl Edwards: Edwards scored 2 wins in the first 26 races and should be a contender for the championship in the final 10 races. ChicagoLand is a pretty good track for Edwards, but never been a standout track for him though. Over the past 3 races here, he have compiled 16.7 average finish, 5.3 average start, 15.0 average running position and 78.8 driver rating. Last season he finished 20th with RFR and should probably be able to top that mark with JGR. This season he been very strong on the 1.5 mile intermediate racetracks, he have put together 14.8 average finish with 10.7 average running position and 96.9 driver rating. He should be good for least another top 10 finish and possibly a top 5 run.

20-Matt Kenseth: I thought Matt Kenseth made a mockery out of the field at Michigan, but then he dominated at Richmond. He led a impressive 352 of 400 laps! He is unlikely to back that up at Chicagoland, but he is fun to watch when he have a car like that. Last season he finished 10th at this track. In 2013, he won this race and was command for almost half of the race. Over the past 3 races here, he have compiled 9.7 average finish, 6.0 average start, 9.3 average running position and 106.4 driver rating. In 14 career races, he have held 11.7 average finish with 6 top 10 and 11 Top 20 finishes. He worst career finish? 23rd back in 2009. This season he been one of the most consistent drivers on the 1.5 mile intermediate racetracks. He have put together 8.7 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 94.6 driver rating in 6 races this season. I don't think he will finish inside the top 5 this week, but I wouldn't be shocked either though.

22-Joey Logano: Logano is one of the most consistent drivers in the series and have rarely finished poorly this season. Only twice over the past 13 races, Logano have finished worse than 7th(!). Including 10 top 5 finishes in that 13 race span. That's insane people! Last season he finished 4th at Chicagoland. In 2013, he had his engine go sour after a strong start to the race. He led 32 laps before caution came out for rain. After that his race went south really fast sadly. Over the past 3 races here, he have compiled 16.0 average finish, 13.0 average start, 12.7 average running position and 97.4 driver rating. Outside of Harvick, he been one of the strongest drivers at the 1.5 mile intermediate racetracks. He have posted 6.3 average finish with 6.2 average running position and 113.1 driver rating. He is almost locked for a top 10 finish and will more than likely finish inside the top 5!

24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon made the chase (not that I am shocked), however I don't think he makes it very far though. Gordon have struggled all season long and haven't gotten the finishes he needed. He seems to fade late in races and that what have hurt him the most. He heads to Chicagoland with a strong track record, but he have been hit or miss this season on similar tracks. Over the past 3 races here, he have compiled 14.3 average finish, 11.0 average start, 10.3 average running position and 111.1 driver rating. Last season he finished 3rd in this race, but I doubt if he backs that up. I think he will be a top 10 driver, but beyond that is pretty questionable. Doesn't help that HMS is behind the top teams right now either.

27-Paul Menard: Menard finally found his way into the chase, but based on his recent performance he will not make it past the first round. Last season he finished 21st and the season before he finished 22nd. Over the past 3 races here, he have compiled 19.3 average finish, 10.3 average start, 18.3 average running position and 70.9 driver rating. In 8 career starts, he have posted 23.3 average finish with 1 top 10 and 2 top 20 finishes. Since joining RCR, he have only one finish better than 20th and that was 15th in 2012. His career best finish was in 2010 of 10th and that was with #98 Richard Petty Motorsports team. As much I want Menard to do well in the chase, I don't think he will. Over the past 3 races, he have finished 24th or 26th. Will we see a upstick in production? Sure we could, but I wouldn't bank on it though.

41-Kurt Busch: Busch is coming off a disappointed 15th-place finish at Richmond. Not real sure what happened. I am guess like teammate Harvick, he faded off the lead lap after that really long green flag run. He shouldn't have much problems this weekend though. Last season he finished 8th in this race. Over the past 3 races at Chicagoland, he have compiled 14.7 average finish, 20.0 average start, 17.7 average running position and 83.5 driver rating. He average finish should be higher, but he finished 32nd in 2012 in the #51 car. He been strong this season on the 1.5 mile racetracks this season. He have posted 10.5 average finish, 9.0 average start, 8.0 average running position and 107.2 driver rating. He missed four races to start the season, so his numbers could better on the 1.5 mile racetracks. However that doesn't change that fact that Busch been one of the stronger fantasy options this season.

42-Kyle Larson: Larson is coming off another top 15 finish and that marks his 5th top 15 finish over the past 6 races. I like him a lot this week at Chicagoland. He doesn't have to worry about making the chase, so him and his team doesn't have to worry about performing at a high level. Therefore I think they could have some great finishes over the final 10 races. Last season he finished 3rd in this race. He led 20 laps in his debut at this track. Personally I am not sure what to expect from him. Well I could see him contending for a top 5 or top 10 finish like last season, however I wonder if CGR will give Larson a quality car like McMurray? Even if he doesn't, I still view him a top 15 driver headed into the weekend. Practice and qualifying should clear things up though.

48-Jimmie Johnson: I never count out Jimmie Johnson, but I find it hard to believe that HMS will just turn on a switch. I do think Hendrick is struggling and I don't think it on purpose either like some people have suggested. If it was just Johnson, then sure I would say that Chad and Jimmie are testing. However that haven't been the case. All of his teammate are barely top 10 drivers anymore. With that said I would never count out a team that have the potential like Jimmie Johnson. Over the past 3 races at ChicagoLand, he ave compiled 6.3 average finish, 5.7 average start, 5.3 average running position and 123.2 driver rating. Personally I am waiting on Johnson which could be risky. However based what I know, I think it a reasonable gamble that will pay off in the end. He does have a strong track record here though. In 13 career races, he have posted 9.1 average finish with 7 top 5 and 10 top 10 finishes.

88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr like his teammates haven't performed as well as they wanted, but he have been the only consistent driver out of that stable in my opinion. Over the past 6 races, he have finished 11th or better in every race. Including 4 straight top 10 finishes dating back to Michigan. Last season he finished 11th in this race. In 2013, he blew a engine and finished 35th. Over the past 3 races here, he have compiled 18.0 average finish, 11.7 average start, 12.7 average running position and 89.0 driver rating. He have performed better on the 1.5 mile venues this season. However he haven't visited one since Kentucky. He was strong on this type track early in the season and it seems likely that he a least finishes inside the top 10.

**All stats are from DriverAverages and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com

Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com

Twtter - @JeffNathans