Monday, September 28, 2015

Fantasy Nascar Preview (Dover)

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After seeing a fuel-mileage race be played out at New Hampshire, we stay in the northeast and head to (one of my personal favorite racetracks) Dover! Yes for those asking, I will be attending Sunday's race. I just love this track, in my opinion it cannot be compared to any other track on the schedule. Dover is only 1-mile long in length, but it have the speed of a intermediate racetrack. With that said, I will focus on May's race performances and past stats at this track. Since there is no real comparable track and stuff. I would also try to consider each driver personal situation (in points), as some drivers are now in win or go home mode!

1-Jamie Mac: The CGR cars just didn't look too strong at New Hampshire, as they didn't show much speed and really faded on the longer runs. However they have some hope at Dover. The past two seasons, they have had some very encouraging runs. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 17.3 average finish, 10.4 average start, 14.6 average running position and 82.6 driver rating. Not impressive stats from a distance, but digging deeper he is a appealing fantasy option at Dover! As JMac have wheeled off 3 top 13 finishes in his past 4 starts. Including a 7th place run earlier this season! He been a mid-teen driver most of the season and I would expect similar results this weekend. I would say anywhere from 13th-17th is his likely range.

2-Brad Keselowski:: Keselowski biggest flaw this season have been his inability to finish inside the top 5. In 28 races, he have only 6 top 5 finishes. One of the reasons I usually don't like using him in fantasy racing this season. He been pretty good at Dover lately though. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 11.6 average finish, 7.6 average start, 10.8 average running position and 100.7 driver rating. Over that 5-race span, he have put together 3 Top 5 finishes. Including back-to-back 2nd place finishes last season. Earlier this season, he finished 12th. He wasn't ever really that good. Felt like Penske was behind for a few races to start the summer off. He will be a top 10 driver with potinal to finish inside the top 5 probably.

3-Austin Dillon: Dillon is coming off a disappoint race at New Hampshire! Many people expect him to do well, but just isn't at stage of career where he can expect consistent results from him. Earlier this season he started 12th and finished 33rd! That is his worst career finish at Dover. In 4 career starts, Dillon have put together 26.0 average finish with 20.8 average running position and 65.1 driver rating. Outside of his 33rd place finish in May , he have some decent results: 20th and 24th last season. I am not super high on Dillon this week, but he should be a nice top 25 finisher with the potential sneak inside the top 20. He doesn't hold much fantasy value considering in 3 of 4 races he have finished worse than he qualified.

4-Kevin Harvick: The champ is on the ropes! Question is does he have anything left or will he be knocked out? I don't know, but he should have won at New Hampshire though. So he now in win or go home situation. We can expect him to bring a very fast car to this weekend race and I would not be shocked to see him win either. Over the past 5 races at Dover, he have compiled 9.2 average finish, 6.8 average start, 8.8 average running position and 109.5 driver rating. He finished 2nd back in May and pribably had the second-best car to Martin Truex Jr. In that race he led 91 laps after starting 6th. Last season he had finishes of 13th and 17th. Very misleading though. Last September, he put a old-fashion beatdown on the field while leading a race-high 223 laps, but didn't get the result he deserved. Last June he finished 17th, but he probably had the best car until he had pit early in the race while under green. He went a lap down and fought all race long to get the lap back. Once he did it was pretty late in the race. If he didn't have to pit, I think he would have finished somewhere in the top 3. So he been pretty sharp at Dover since joining SHR. I think he wins or go down swinging!

5-Kasey Kahne: Welp the Kasey Kahne top10-less streak ended at New Hampshire. That was probably the uglist streak I have seen from a Hendrick driver in quite awhile to be honest! He should be good at Dover though. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 15.8 average finish, 17.0 average start, 13.2 average running position and 88.1 driver rating. He finished 4th back in May, but I can tell you for a fact that was a fluke. He wasn't terrible in that race, but he was a teen-driver in that race. I think he got track position late in the race. His 93.6 driver rating and 13.0 average running position pretty much backs that up. Before May's race, he have finished 4 of his previous 5 races at this track from 13th-20th. His only result not in that range? 23rd place run in June 2013.

10-Danica Patrick: Patrick had a tough day at New Hampshire! She was running very well and then boom she get into the wall. Not mention being drilled by David Ragan afterwards! She is tough and she will bounce back, but I am not sure how she will do this weekend though. In her past 5 races at Dover, she have put together 23.2 average finish with 27.4 average running position and 54.6 driver rating. Back in May, she had her best career finish of 15th at Dover! Her other five finishes? 25th, 23rd, 29th, 24th and 28th. Her June finish obviously stands out. However she wasn't that good in the race though. At best she probably had a 20th place car. You can tell how a driver realistically performed by looking at his/her driver rating and average running position. Danica held 69.9 driver rating and 23.0 average running position. Also she only spent 20% of the race inside the top 15. Yeah so I wouldn't expect another 15th place run from her!

11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is coming off a win and a 2nd place finish to start the chase. However Dover isn't his strong track, but I don't think it matters how JGR is finishing out these races. It's getting ridiculous to be honest. 6 Top 5 finishes between 3 drivers in the past two races. Over the past 5 races, he have compiled 18.4 average finish, 6.0 average start, 8.6 average running position and 95.5 driver rating. The stats are pretty ugly lately at Dover for Denny. 3 of the past 5 races have ended in 20th or worse. Including a 21st place run back in May. He actually led 118 laps, but he spun late in the race. Last season he had finishes of 20th and 5th. He should be a contender once again on Sunday though!

18-Kyle Busch: Kyle Busch must feel pretty left out right now! He is the only JGR driver to not finish inside the top 5 in both of the first two races of the chase. And now he finds himself one point out of the chase cut off for the next round. All he have to do is finish inside the top 10 this week and he probably can advance to the next round. But If I know Kyle Busch that isn't good enough. A guy like Busch will probably try to go out and win to secure his spot. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 19.4 average finish, 6.2 average start, 9.8 average running position and 108.1 driver rating. Not a great average finish, but believe it or not he is very good at Dover. Over the past 8 races here, he have 5 Top 10 finishes. Only times he have finished outside of the top 10 was races he wrecked out of. On the negative side, he have finished 36th and 42nd the past two of three races at this track. He should have finished well inside the top 5 back in May, but Brian Scott wrecked into Busch late in the race. I have very high hopes for Kyle this week!

19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is coming off another top 5 finish and now have three top 5 finishes in the past 4 races. He now heads to Dover with a lot of confident in his team. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 18.6 average finish, 15.4 average start, 15.8 average running position and 78.8 driver rating. Earlier this season, he finished 19th and 3 laps down. Last season he had finishes of 11th and 14th with RFR. So not like he cannot get decent finishes at this track. In fact, he used to be one of the best drivers in the series at Dover. From 2006 to 2011 (11 races span), he wheeled off 11 straight top 11 finishes. Including 10 top 10 finishes, with 7 of them ending inside the top 5. Since? One top 10 finish, even though that ended in a top 5 finish back in 2012. The way JGR been performing, I think he is more than capable of returning to his old self at this racetrack!

20-Matt Kenseth: All Matt Kenseth does is win, win and win! Kenseth now have 5 wins this season and could very well make it number 6 on Sunday! Dover is one of his best racetracks on the schedule and I think he is in for another strong finish. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 18.8 average finish, 9.0 average start, 10.0 average running position and 106.6 driver rating. Earlier this season, he was very strong but finished 39th due to suspension failure! Before having to go to garage, he was running competitive inside the top 5. For the record, I thought JGR was stout back in May. They are even better now, so that should probably scare you if you planning on betting against this organization right now! Before finishing 39th in May, Kenseth have knocked off 5 top 5 finishes in his previous 8 races at Dover. Including 6 Top 10 finishes overall and 3 straight top 7 finishes in that 8 race span.

22-Joey Logano: All Joey Logano does is finish in the top 5! No really! Over the past 16 races, he have 11 top 5 finishes. That's ridiculous! If you gave me the choice between the field and Joey Logano. I would take Logano all day. In my opinion consistency is key in fantasy racing and there not a lot of drivers out there who can produce the numbers of top 5 at the rate of Logano. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 6.6 average finish, 8.8 average start, 10.8 average running position and 97.3 driver rating. This is one arguably Joey's best racetrack from a career point of view! In 13 career starts, he have 13.6 average finish with 8 Top 10 finishes and 10 Top 15 finishes. Including 7 straight top 11 finishes, with  6 of them ending inside the top 10. I find it very hard to pass up Logano as his best racetrack, not to mention he kinda on a roll right now!

24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon finished better at New Hampshire then I expect him to after seeing how many times he faded to mid-pack after a caution. However he man up and delivered a top 10 finish! So what can we expect from him at Dover? Well this is a very good track for him and always have been. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 6.6 average finish, 14.0 average start, 8.2 average running position and 107.5 driver rating. In that 5 race span, Gordon have wheeled off 3 top 4 finishes and 4 top 10 finishes altogether! He have 4 top 4 finishes over his past 6 races at this track. Gordon is well past his dominance at Dover, but he still is very capable of being a fantastic. This is one of the few tracks left on the schedule that I absolutely expect Gordon to be very strong at.

27-Paul Menard: Menard believe it or not still could advance to round, despite not finishing inside the top 12 in the first two races of the chase, crazy right? He won't be on my fantasy radar this week, but he could make a very nice option in certain formats. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 14.4 average finish, 17.8 average start, 17.2 average running position and 77.3 driver rating. Since joining RCR (9 races ago -  2011 season), he have recorded 7 Top 20 finishes! Including 5 straight dating back to June 2013. Earlier this season he finished 8th. I won't expect a repeat finish, but a top 15 finish seems very likely.

41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch is coming off a disappointing 19th place finish at New Hampshire! He will be looking to rebound in a big way this weekend! Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 20.0 average finish, 16.2 average start, 14.6 average running position and 81.9 driver rating. Dover haven't exactly been a great track for Kurt lately. His last top 10 was in 2011 when he won. Over the past 20 races at Dover, he have 5 top 10 finishes. Every single one of them have ended inside the top 5! Downside? 13 of the other 15 races have ended in 16th or worse. Not exactly what you want to hear about your potential fantasy pick , is it? I didn't think so!

42-Kyle Larson: Disappointing New Hampshire race for Kyle Larson as he didn't do much of anything in the race. No worries as we head to Dover, this is a very good track for him so far in his career. In 3 career starts, he have compiled 6.7 average finish, 5.0 average start, 10.3 average running position and 97.6 driver rating. Earlier this season he finished 3rd. But he wasn't quite that good though. He had a top 10 car for most of the race, but late restarts really benefited him against cars on older tires. Last season he had finishes of 6th and 11th. This can be considered Larson's best track on the schedule and I wouldn't disagree by looking at the results! Question is can he back it up?

48-Jimmie Johnson: Betting aganist Jimmie Johnson at Dover is like loading a gun , putting it up in your mouth and pulling the trigger! Seriously Jimmie Johnson is no joke at Dover. A off-day at Dover is when Jimmie finishes outside of the top 5! In 27 career starts, he have 15 top 5 finishes, 10 wins and 20 top 10 finishes! Johnson won his first two races at this track in 2002, but came inconsistent for a stench of races. However after 2007 he have became a dominating force at this 1-mile track. Since 2008 (past 15 races), he have 7 wins, 11 Top 5 finishes and 13 Top 10 finishes. Yeah so he been pretty good! Over the past 5 races alone, he have compiled 4.6 average finish, 11.6 average start, 4.2 average running position and 127.8 driver rating. I know most people wouldn't go against Johnson this week, but we all know that one idiot who always try to go off-sequence to try to outsmart everyone. Don't be that guy (or girl).

78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex was dominant back in May where he led 131 laps before fading to 6th when the checkers waved! He was flat-out impressive. Nobody could really stay with him once he got to the lead. Dover been a very good track for him! Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 14.4 average finish, 11.2 average start, 12.6 average running position and 96.8 driver rating. He been a very consistent driver here looking at his track record. He have wheeled off 6 top 10 finishes in his past 9 starts. Including 3 straight top 7 finishes! I really like Truex this weekend as this 78 car seems to have found some speed lately and should be able to finish well once again.

88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr is in danger of being eliminated if Kyle Busch or Kevin Harvick win on Sunday (or outscore him in points). So a poor effort at Dover is not a option for Dale Jr this week! Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 10.4 average finish, 13.4 average start, 12.4 average running position and 93.1 driver rating. Dale Jr doesn't have the track records of his teammates, but he been pretty solid lately. With 7 straight top 17 finishes. Including 4 top 10 finishes and 5 of those 7 races ending inside the top 11. Dale will need to finish inside the top 10 and make sure he finishes ahead of some of his fellow chase competitors to make sure he secure a spot in the next round!

****All stats are from DriverAverages and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com

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