Tuesday, September 08, 2015

Fantasy Nascar Preview (Richmond)

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First off I want to say is that Darlington was freaking awesome! I hope Richmond is just as good, especially since there several drivers who haven't clinched their spot in the chase yet. So we will see drivers this week take different approach to their race. Some will gamble and try to take every risk needed to win, while others will play it safe and try to coast to a decent finish! So keep that in mind when selecting your lineups this week.

1-Jamie Mac: JMac started off the season pretty strong, but he have now faded to nothing more than a teen driver on a weekly basis! That is good if you are trying to coast to a league championship or segment win, but problem is most of us are trying to gain points. Which means the upside of JMac isn't that appealing to our primary needs. Richmond is a JMac-type racetrack though. Earlier this season, he had the car to beat on the long run and ran down Kurt Busch. Then passed him! Unfortunately some late cautions came and pretty much ruined his chances. It was obviously he had a top 5 car and probably would have won if the race ended differently. I doubt he will be able to repeat such a performance though. Over the past 5 races at Richmond, JMac have compiled 10.2 average finish, 10.2 average start, 8.6 average running position and 101.6 driver rating. On short flats (Richmond, Phoenix and New Hampshire), JMac have been strong this season. He have put together 10.7 average finish with 2 top 5s and 9.0 average running. New Hampshire was his only bad race of the three. He was running around the top 10 when his engine went soar. He faded in the final 20 laps to outside of the top 25.  The thing I like most about JMac this week? He have finished 4th in 3 of the past 4 races at Richmond! That is not a typo kids. He have a habit running and finishing well on this type racetrack!

2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is starting to come alive after a very strong performance at Darlington, but I get the feeling that he isn't quite as good with this package. Nevertheless I would expect him to be a very strong fantasy pick! He dominated this race last year and finished 4th in the spring. Earlier this season, he finished 17th but I believe had was down Cylinder which prevented him from getting up to speed on the restarts. He pitted late and that pretty much was end of his day! If he didn't have that problem, I think he would have finished 3rd behind Busch and Harvick! Over the past 5 races at Richmond, he have compiled 14.4 average finish, 7.2 average start, 5.8 average running position and 115.1 driver rating. His average finish (14.4) isn't impressive, but to be fair he had some bad luck in 3 of those 5 races. As the other stats back up, Keselowski have been a very strong performer at this venue! On shorter flats this season, Keselowski been one of the best in the series. In 3 races, he have put together 8.3 average finish with 4.0 average running position and 120.2 driver rating. Six times this season, Keselowski have finished inside the top 5. 2 of those races was on a short-flat racetrack for those that were wondering.

3-Austin Dillon: I thought Dillon was onto something there for awhile and then he goes out and performs like he did at Darlington. But to be fair that is a tough track any driver to master! Richmond is a better place for him, but I am not really sure what to expect from him. Especially since Slugger wasn't his Crew Chief yet earlier this season when we were at Richmond. In 3 career starts, Dillon have compiled 24.7 average finish , 25.0 average start, 23.3 average running position and 59.2 driver rating. Earlier this season he finished 27th. The common trend at Richmond for Dillon is that he have finished 2 laps down in every start. That's not a good sign for anyone thinking about taking a shot with him!

4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is probably the most consistent driver in the series and not even that close to be honest. Earlier this season he finished 2nd at Richmond to teammate Kurt Busch! Last season he was very strong in both races. In the spring, he was pretty good and led some laps early in the race. But he never really showed up with a car capable of dominating. He probably would have finished inside the top 5, but I believe his car got damage at some point in the race from hitting the wall or something. However don't quote me on that, as I could be mistaken that for another race. Ultimately he finished 11th when the checkers waved! Over the past 5 races at Richmond, Harvick have compiled 6.0 average finish, 9.6 average start, 6.6 average running position and 110.6 driver rating. Richmond is one of Harvick's best racetrack from a historically standpoint. Over the past 22 races (dating back to 2004), he have finished 12th or better in 20 of 22 races. Last time he finished worse than 12th? 2012 where he finished 19th. The only time he finished outside of the top 12 was in 2008. Harvick is my pick to win on Saturday night, but I say that pretty much every week. Hard not to when he strong week in and week out!

5-Kasey Kahne: Kasey Kahne scored his best finish since Sonoma at Darlington (12th). At this point, Kasey will have to win or he will miss the chase. Personally I think he toasted as far as making the chase, but who knows. Three years ago, Jeff Gordon was put in a similar spot heading into the final race that came down to him or Kyle Busch. Odds were against Gordon, but he somehow overcame two laps down and finished 2nd. Richmond haven't been a great for Kasey, but it haven't terrible though. Earlier this season, Kasey was decent I guess. He finished 6th, but I can tell you he ran in the teens most of the day. Last season he finished 17th and 14th. Over the past 5 races at Richmond, he have compiled 14.4 average finish, 17.4 average finish, 14.6 average running position and 84.8 driver rating. Kahne have been okay this season on the shorter flats. He have put together 9.7 average finish with 2 top 10s and 10.7 average running position. I might take a filer on him, but I wouldn't expect another top 10 finish unless a gamble pay off.

11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin arguably use to be the best driver here, but he haven't been the same since the 2012 summer race. In that 5 race span, he have compiled an 21.5 average finish. His finish in that span was September 2012 where he finished 18th. Since then he have finished 21st or 22nd in every race. Earlier this season, he started 2nd but quickly faded to mid-pack and pretty much stood there for most of the event! If I remember right that race was scheduled to be a night race, but it was rained out. So it was eventually completed during the day on Sunday.  Did that effect him? Probably. In other words ''bad luck''. He will have to break out of this slump at Richmond sooner or later, right? I think he could do that this weekend, but let see how he practices and qualifies first though.

18-Kyle Busch: Busch have a very strong track record at Richmond. In my personal opinion this is his best racetrack. He used to be pretty much unbeatable here, but like teammate Denny Hamlin he seems to have lost the handle on this track. However that not because of him not being competitive though. He always show up with a car capable of dominating. He missed the first race here, and was in a slump at this time last season. However he finished 3rd last spring after starting in mid-pack-ish! Looking at his track record, he was dominant from 2009 to 2012 where he picked up 4 wins in 7 races held here. Over the last few years, I don't think Busch have gotten worse here. However I will admit that he just had a bad string of races. You should be able to count on Busch to bounce back this week though.

19-Carl Edwards: I knew it wasn't going to be long before Edwards would break back into victory lane with the way he was running there! Soon as his pit crew got him off pit road first, I knew it was pretty much over. He's now entering the final race before the chase and could add more bonus points towards the chase. Earlier this season he struggled at Richmond. I am not sure why but all the JGR cars looked off. Of course they were little off on speed still then. Over the past 5 races at Richmond, Edwards have compiled 11.4 average finish, 19.6 average start, 16.2 average running position and 86.2 driver rating. Those aren't impressive stats, but  they are better than most would think. 3 of those 5 races ended inside the top 10. However his previous two finishes ended in 19th and 22nd. I wouldn't put too much into that though since JGR seems to be firing on all cylinders at the moment.

20-Matt Kenseth: If you are looking for consistent driver at Richmond, then Matt Kenseth is your man! Over the past 6 races at Richmond, he have only finished worse than 7th once and that was a 41st place finish last summer. Sure if you looking for a race winner, then Kenseth probably isn't your ideal fantasy pick. But I do like Kenseth more than picks this weekend. Not because he is a consistent top 10 finisher, but because almost everyone is overlooking him at Richmond. I felt the same way in April when I wrote the preview for the first race. He eventually finished 7th while other notable names finished well behind him! On shorter flats this season, he have put together a 9.7 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 100.9 driver rating. Also worth noting that Kenseth supports a 6.7 average starting position for those that love starting drivers from up front!

22-Joey Logano: Joey Logano is probably been my go-to-guy this season outside of Harvick and personally I might use up all my starts with him in Yahoo before Homestead. Logano been on a mission this season and may just win his 4th race of the season on Saturday night! Since joining Pesnke, he been very stout here. In 3 races, he have compiled 4.0 average finish (series-best), 7.7 average start (4th-best in the series), 5.3 average running position and 115.8 driver rating. Hard to beat those stats!  On shorter flats, he been just impressive! He have put together 5.7 average finish, 1.7(!) average start, 5.7 average running position and 114.0 driver rating. The first thing that stands out is his average starting position of 1.7. Of course that is only a 3-race sample, so cannot put too much stock into that. However he have proven all season long that he is a great qualifier!

24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon been pretty average all season in terms of finishes. He seems to have top 10 cars usually, but rarely does he finish there. For months, we all knew that Gordon's relevancy was rapidly diminishing and at this point what value does he have? Personally I don't think I will ever use Gordon again in Fantasy Nascar with only 11 races left in his career (full-time). He is too inconsistent for my taste. On shorter flats, he have put together 8.7 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 99.8 driver rating. Those are compelling stats, but in most fantasy games he doesn't hold the value to be worth consideration!

27-Paul Menard: I have some bad news for everyone: You missed out on the great Paul Menard fantasy value. If you haven't used Menard at this point, then you can forget about now. After the first 12 to 15 races, he becomes too inconsistent to hold any water. Of course you would know that if you checked out my 2015 Fantasy Nascar Preview on Paul Menard back in January (Click here to view it). Richmond overall been a tough place for Menard, but he have showed something since joining RCR. In the past 5 races, he have finished 4 of those races inside the top 20. Including a career-best 5th place effort in 2013. Overall Menard doesn't excite me as a fantasy pick ,especially since he isn't racing for anything really besides a chase spot that is almost set in stone!

41-Kurt Busch: Busch surprised me with a win last time at Richmond, but guess it should not have been too big of a surprised since he have ran very well there in the past. Over the past 5 races at Richmond, he have compiled 8.4 average finish, 9.8 average start, 7.4 average running position and 112.3 driver rating. Kurt doesn't have a flawless record, but he does know how to get around this place. Earlier this season, he was pretty much untouchable. Which was why I was impressive by anyone who got around him. Only few guys were able to pass him during the race. On shorter flats this season, Kurt have been one of the best in the series! He have compiled 5.3 average finish, 5.7 average start, 5.0 average running position and 123.2 driver rating. I like Kurt a lot this week! Personally I think he will be a top 5 fantasy pick.

42-Kyle Larson: Larson should have finished better than he did at Darlington, but had a terrible restart with 15 to go and finished 10th. On the plus side that gave him some momentum headed into Richmond. Earlier this season, Larson wasn't bad I guess. He finished 12th, but didn't really have a car anything beyond that. He ran around 11th or 12th most of the day. Last season he finished 11th and 16th. There not really a lot to say about Larson since he only have three races under his belt. However I do think he is worth taking a look at though. Considering he have to win in order to make the chase. Chip will probably give Larson the better equipment (than JMac). Least that would be more logical. If you are looking for a top 15 finisher with upside, then you have found your man!

48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson doesn't look like a championship contending team and quite frankly i am not sure if they are just playing or not. It not uncommon for Chad and Jimmie to play possum, but we thought that last season too. But look what they did in the chase? Absolutely nothing. I guess we will find out at Richmond. This week I am not very high on Jimmie Johnson. Despite 3 career wins at this 0.75 mile racetrack, he have struggled to be a reliable option. Looking at his past 10 starts at Richmond, only 5 times have he managed to finish inside the top 10. Only twice have he finished inside the top 5. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 19.0 average finish, 17.0 average start, 16.0 average running position and 86.6 driver rating. It's worth noting that he have finishes of 8th and 3rd over past two races.

88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr should be a decent fantasy pick, but he usually doesn't have enough upside to be worth consider. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 11.2 average finish, 19.2 average start, 12.2 average running position and 112.1 driver rating. Dale been pretty consistent over his past 9 races. In that span, he have finished 19th or better in every race! His best performance was probably in 2012 where he finished 2nd. In those 9 races, he have finished inside the top 10 in 3 races. Earlier this season at Richmond, he struggled and finished inside the top 15. However he wasn't anything beyond most of the day. On the shorter flats this season, he have put together 20.7 average finish with 16.3 average running position and 86.2 driver rating.

I hope everyone find this information very useful, but I think the tweet below is the best piece of advice you will need this week:


****All stats are from DriverAverages and FantasyRacingCheat.com

Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans