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Preview -
1-JMac: JMac is one of the most underrated drivers at Martinsville in the series, this always been a strong racetrack and recent has stepped up his game even more. To me, JMac is an flat track elite and it has shown on similar racetracks over the past couple seasons. Earlier this season, he ran okay overall but I felt like the Ganassi cars were still trying to find themselves. At the time, either the 42 or 1 was running that great. So as expected, we didn't expect too much from JMac. And he wasn't that great only posted 63.1 driver rating and finishing 23rd place. Hard to get excited about that, but he now running much better though so you can expect a spike in performance at a great track for him. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 18.6 average finish with 14.2 average running position and 92.0 driver rating. He has finished 4 of the past 7 races inside the top 10 and that doesn't include two misleading races. In 2014, he was extremely strong and proabbly had close to top 5 matieral car. And I am not being the top either. He was that strong both times. However, he only has finishes of 16th and 42nd to show for it. In October 2014, he finsihed 16th after leading 84 laps from the pole. In April 2014, he was running around 5th before Dale Jr put him in the wall. He finished 114 laps down but posted an solid 80.4 driver rating. That high of driver rating tells you a lot about his performance. It indicates a strong race overall and that exactly would be the case too. Headed into the weekend, I view JMac as a low-end teen driver with upside to steal an top 10 finish at some point in the race.
2-Brad Keselowski: I feel for Brad Keselowski, he had the best car at Talladega and dominated the race in the early going but blew up before the race was over. With that said, he also got eliminated from the chase because of it. Going forward, I expect him to still be pretty good though. Just think Penske will give Logano the better equipment. That doesn't Keselowski won't run well or better than Logano at times, however his loses whatever appealness as a fantasy option to me though. But if you have followed my content this season, I have always been a bit hard on Brad. He always has ran well at Martinsville and showed it again earlier this season. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 21.6 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 90.5 driver rating. He just has no luck at Martinsville. Over his past 5 races here, he has posted 3 finishes outside of the top 30. Last November, he got into involved in that mess late in the race with Logano and others. And finished 32nd. Prior to that, he led 143 laps. In 2014, he also had a pair of finishes outside of the top 30. I believe October 2014 he had some type of mechanical issue which cost him a solid finish. I don't really remember what happened to him in the spring race, but I went to say an wreck though. Point being? He has been strong at Martinsville. In 5 of hist past 7 races at Martinsville, he has compiled driver rating above 100. That's important because driver rating tells the tail of a tape how strong a driver performed. Even if he had a misleading finish. 5 of 7 races is pretty good. Overall, he has posted 8 Top 12 finishes in 13 career races. Brad has 5 Top 6 finishes over his past 8 races at Martinsville. If Brad can avoid bad luck then he should be a solid choice as a fantasy option. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 10 driver.
3-Austin Dillon: Austin Dillon has had an amazing 2016 season and doesn't get enough credit for what he has accomplished overall! He almost advanced to the next round of the chase at Talladega and that was considered a long shot by many when this chase started. In fact, most had him out after the first round. However, his consistency got him very further. It was something I said was an must for him to have fantasy relevancy back in the offseason. Well , he definitely checked that off the list. However, I am not super high on him at a track like Martinsville though. He finished 4th earlier this season though. He also has ran well at Martinsville since his debut. If you take out that one bad race in March 2015 , he has compiled 12.3 average finish with 19.3 average running position and 73.7 driver rating. Two things pop out at me at first glance without even digging into the data! First, he has an very solid 12.3 average finish. I love that number over an 4-race span from a young driver like Dillon at Martinsville! Second would be his performance numbers, they don't match his average finish. Usually, I would say to stay away from him and let someone else be fooled but in this case I actually don't. Look at earlier this season when he finished 4th place. He had a great race overall. He posted an 90.4 driver rating and completed 77% of the laps inside the top 15 with 14.0 average running position. Why is that impressive? He started back in 29th place. Martinsville is a difficult place to make a lot of passes at and laps fly by here. The fact that he posted those type of numbers, give me reasons to at least him an shot this week. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 15 driver with the usual limited upside.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is having a great season and will be one of 8 drivers who will have an chance at the championship! Harvick has consistently been one of the fastest drivers every single week since joining SHR. Martinsville has been no different, even though I feel like people undervalue him because this isn't a bread and butter 1.5 mile track. Harvick still been rock solid at this place, despite being overlooked. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 14.6 average finish with 10.6 average running position and 104.3 driver rating. In that 5-race span, he has 3 Top 10 finishes but haven't recorded an top 5 finish since the 2011 season where he swept the top 5. Including an win and 4th place finish that season. Overall, he has posted 4 Top 10 finishes in his past 6 races at this track. Still no top 5 finishes. Earlier this season, he was very strong despite finishing 17th. He had an top 5 car for the event. His performance numbers were incredibly strong for the event with 5.0 average running position and 111.9 driver rating. The final position usually isn't that important, if the race performance says otherwise. In Harvick's case, the final position is irrelevant. In fact, no driver in the series has been stronger than Harvick over the past 3 races at Martinsville. You are likely thinking I am crazy, but I am really not though. Listen to his past three Martinsville's races: 11.0 average finish, 4.7 average running position (Series-best) , 264 laps led (3rd-most), 97% laps completed inside the top 15 (Series-high), 191 fast laps (Series-best) 119.2 driver rating (2nd-best). Harvick should be on your short list as one of the heavy favorites this weekend at Martinsville.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne finish at Talladega last weekend was something we has came customed to over the years. However, his 35th place finish at Talladega was his first non-top 14 finish in 10 races. Prior to his bad luck at Talladega, he has finished 14th in 9 straight races. Including 7 Top 10 finishes in his past 8 races this season. All 8 of those races has ended in 12th or better. So yeah, he was on a hot streak (on him at least). What can you expect at Martinsville from him? Hard to say honestly, but this is a great track for Hendrick Motorsports though. Kahne has been inconsistent here though. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 20.8 average finish with 19.4 average running position and 73.4 driver rating. Over the past couple seasons, it has been tough being Kasey Kahne. And Martinsville has been no different for Kasey. He has posted 4 finishes outside of the top 11 in his past 6 attempts at this track. However, the trend is headed in the right direction overall. He has posted finishes of 11th and 9th over his past 3 starts at the track. He finished 22nd earlier this season, but HMS just wasn't right at the moment. They struggled as a whole overall in my opinion and Kahne finished 22nd. I think it a good sign that Hendrick is running well right now and it should give Kahne a good chance to post an 3rd Top 12 finish in past 3 Martinsville races. I am not saying he is a lock, but I expect him to be an quality fantasy pick in Yahoo Fantasy Racing and other formats that focus in on finish position.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin advanced to the round of 8 with an strong top 5 finish at Talladega, just edging out Austin Dillon. Hamlin now has the points resetting and has three great tracks ahead of him. Starting with probably his best racetrack on the schedule at Martinsville. Hamlin been a stud here since his debut and has regain that form recently at the track. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 14.0 average finish with 12.8 average running position and 97.4 driver rating. Hamlin have been very strong over his past 3 races at this track overall. May had the best car back in the spring, before having to go to garage he had the fastest car on the track if I remember right. And then last season, he posted finishes of 1st and 3rd. As good as Hamlin has been of late, he may have already hit his peak at Martinsville. Every great driver at Martinsville will find a stench of races were they are flat out insane. Hamlin hit that mark early in his career from 2006 to 2010 seasons. During that 9-race span, he posted 7 Top 3 finishes. Including 6 Top 2 finishes with 4 of those ending in wins. He scored his fifth career win here last season. I guess my point being, he may not get on a streak like he did in those seasons again. As this sport changes more and more, it becomes harder to go on those impressive streaks like he did from 2006 to 2010. In fact, he won 3 straight and 4 straight top 2 finishes in 2009 and 2010 seasons. He's one of the best bets this weekend though. He's on my short list of winners for the weekend before any practice!
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy is having a great season and just as good chase so far. His worst finish by far was at Talladega and that was because he was playing it safe. Now, he has advanced to the next round of the chase and will be one of the best fantasy options this weekend. Not many realized it, but Rowdy is by far one of the best drivers at Martinsville. He always seems to be get overlooked for other drivers, even though he been a stud lately. I think this past spring race have shown a lot of people the light however. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 7.8 average finish with 8.8 average running position and 107.2 driver rating. Over the past 7 races overall, Rowdy has posted 7 straight Top 15 finishes. He also has 4 Top 5 finishes in that 7 race-span as well. Over his past 11 races here, he has posted 6 Top 5 finishes but his other 5 finishes in that span has ended in 11th or better. With that said, 9 of those 11 races has resulted in 15th place or better. That's says consistency to me and even if you don't expect his finishes to be outside of the top 5. It good to know, he haven't had many poor finishes at this track recently. JGR also has been very stout this season on shorter tracks this season. That's no secret by the way. Clearly JGR still holds a huge advantage in that apsect of the sport. I think they have been passed on the intermediate tracks though. Headed into the weekend, I view Kyle Busch as a top 5 contender and one of the favorites.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards like his JGR teammates was able to advance to round of 8 and will have a great shot at having a good finish at Martinsville. Edwards isn't having a overly impressive chase, but he also isn't doing bad either though. I just haven't seen that ''eye popping'' performance from him though. He was good at Martinsville either this season. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 14.0 average finish with 14.8 average running position and 84.9 driver rating. 3 of those races has been with JGR. Overall, his number haven't been terrible at Martinsville but his performances in those races been just okay. He was the worst of the JGR earlier this season in my opinion and finished 6th. Overall, I like Edwards but haven't been on the same level of speed as his teammates since August and it is becoming increasingly worrisome to me. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 10 driver but that's all though. He will need to be consistent to advanced based on what we already know. Recently, he has been nothing more than an top 10 driver on a weekly basis. Prior to practice, that is the feel I am getting once again this week. Of course that just my personal opinion though.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth was once known as a weak driver at Martinsville, however his Martinsville's record has transformed into a complete stud since joining JGR. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 13.8 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 100.0 driver rating. Since joining JGR in 2013, he has not had one poor performance at this track. He has been impressive with 6 Top 15 finishes in his past 7 races overall. Earlier this season, he was very strong at Martinsville. He had the second-best car in that race before fading in the final laps. Kenseth has posted 4 Top 6 finishes in past 6 races at this track. I also like the fact that he had strong runs at New Hampshire, Dover, and Richmond. None of those track actually translate to Martinsville, however they are all 1-mile or less in length. I always like looking at venues like that when we come to a place like Martinsville. They may not be similar, but they are all are considered ''shorter'' racetracks. Don't put too much into it though, since the shorter aspect is the only thing that is really relevant. Martinsville isn't comparable otherwise. Anyways, I view Kenseth as a low-end top 10/ Top 5 option headed into the weekend.
22-Joey Logano: Logano won at Talladega for the twice straight season and will complete in the round of 8. Last season at this time, Logano was feuding with Matt Kenseth and we all saw how that ended. I think it will be much different this time around. He always been pretty good at Martinsville. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 12.0 average finish with 7.4 average running position and 110.4 driver rating. Logano has started on the pole in 3 straight races at Martinsville. While leading in 5 straight races as well. In that 5-race span, he has posted 4 Top 11 finishes. Including 3 Top 5 finishes. However, it seems like the 22 team this season has struggled to stay up front on these shorter tracks. For some reason, he always fade on the long run in first half of the race, before rallying for a solid finish. Not something I really like, but I think the 22 team is running better of late though. He has shown more speed lately in the chase and I think he will be able to be least an top 10 fantasy pick.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott was eliminated from the chase after Talladega, but you can expect him to still be a solid contender in the remaining races. I don't think he loses much value overall in terms of fantasy, because his teammates Alex Bowman and Kasey Kahne also were running well in the chase. And they weren't apart of the chase. So I doubt we see Elliott lose much going forward, even with Johnson still apart of the chase. However, of the remaining races this season I like him the least at Martinsville. This is a track that he has struggled at in his first two races this season. Earlier this season, he really struggled and finished outside of the top 20. He has more inexperience now but I still don't like him that much this week. At best, I would say he is a top 20 driver headed into the weekend.
41-Kurt Busch: I have been very tough on Kurt Busch this season because he haven't really offered much upside most weekends. And this weekend, I am not very high on him either. This is a tough track for him overall. In 32 career races at the track, he has posted 11 Top 15 finishes. Including only two top 5 finishes over his past 22 career races at the track. That's very unimpressive. He won back here in his first start with SHR in 2014. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 19.6 average finish with 10.6 average running position and 93.7 driver rating. His performance numbers says he have performed very well in those races, much better than his final finish position shows. Overall, there is not a lot to say about Kurt Busch really. He will likely be a top 10 to top 12 performer. He will lack much upside based on what we had seen this season from him.
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson shocked many people back in April with an strong 3rd place run. Larson ran top 10 for most of the day, prior to that he never even sniffed the top 10 in his Cup career at Martinsville. Flat out he has been terrible here, he even passed out before a race here in 2015 and wasn't able to race that weekend. On top of that, he only had one top 20 finish prior to finishing 3rd and that 19th place back in November of last season. Also, he posted an 77.9 driver rating in that event and that was his best to date at that point. Obviously, Larson made major gains back in April at this track. He also has more speed in his car right now. In fact, over the past 9 races this season, he has posted 6 Top 10 finishes. Larson isn't really an ideal fantasy choice this weekend with an questionable track record. However, I don't hate him this week. Personally, I think he could surprise some people with another strong run. With that said, I could see him getting another finish in the 20s as well, too. Headed into the weekend, I view him as an top 12 fantasy choice with upside to finish inside the top 10.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson advanced to the round of 8 with winning at Charlotte a couple weeks ago and now will try to do the same this weekend at Martinsville. Johnson is one of the most successful drivers ever at this historic racetrack. He's should be one of the few drivers you have on your radar as possible winners. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 18.0 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 95.6 driver rating. He haven't found much success over the past 4 races here with best finish coming of 9th place back this spring. But over the previous 16 races, he has posted 7 wins and 12 Top 5 finishes in that span. So, why he haven't performed well recently, it obvious that he is a strong performer at Martinsville. Overall, his last two races at Martinsville has ended in 9th and 12th. He wasn't a heavy contender in either race, but I do like the fact that HMS is running better now. I don't think they are on the same level as the Gibbs cars are on the shorter racetracks, but they are slowly catching them. And Johnson will be the first one to benefit from that. I think Johnson is the odds-on favorite to win this weekend. For multiple reasons, the two main reasons are how strong he has been lately and of course his track record as well.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Martin Truex Jr was eliminated from the chase after Talladega, I was sick to my stomach as I watch Truex Jr do his interview after his engine blew up. I felt bad for him, because he had the speed to win the championship during the chase. Now it is question how well he will do in the incoming weeks. I think him being out of the chase hurts because all of the JGR cars are still in and I am sure JGR will give their drivers the best stuff first. Truex still will be a factor going forward though. But I don't know if he will be as dominant as the first round of the chase. Also, I don't like Truex much this weekend to begin with. He is primary stronger on the intermediate tracks. He haven't shown that consistent strong speed on the shorter tracks this season. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 17.8 average finish with 15.6 average running position and 77.5 driver rating. He haven't found much success recently at Martinsville overall. He has a pair of 6th place finishes in the past three races. But otherwise, his numbers are not very good. He only has 4 Top 10 finishes over his past 10 races at Martinsville. Otherwise most of his finishes have came in 16th or worse. Overall in 21 career starts, he has posted only 6 Top 10 finishes. I guess I haven't been high on Truex this season on the shorter tracks and that why I am not loving him much. I would like him more, if we were at Texas this weekend. Truex will have to show me something in practice before I have him on my fantasy radar.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Preview -
1-JMac: JMac is one of the most underrated drivers at Martinsville in the series, this always been a strong racetrack and recent has stepped up his game even more. To me, JMac is an flat track elite and it has shown on similar racetracks over the past couple seasons. Earlier this season, he ran okay overall but I felt like the Ganassi cars were still trying to find themselves. At the time, either the 42 or 1 was running that great. So as expected, we didn't expect too much from JMac. And he wasn't that great only posted 63.1 driver rating and finishing 23rd place. Hard to get excited about that, but he now running much better though so you can expect a spike in performance at a great track for him. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 18.6 average finish with 14.2 average running position and 92.0 driver rating. He has finished 4 of the past 7 races inside the top 10 and that doesn't include two misleading races. In 2014, he was extremely strong and proabbly had close to top 5 matieral car. And I am not being the top either. He was that strong both times. However, he only has finishes of 16th and 42nd to show for it. In October 2014, he finsihed 16th after leading 84 laps from the pole. In April 2014, he was running around 5th before Dale Jr put him in the wall. He finished 114 laps down but posted an solid 80.4 driver rating. That high of driver rating tells you a lot about his performance. It indicates a strong race overall and that exactly would be the case too. Headed into the weekend, I view JMac as a low-end teen driver with upside to steal an top 10 finish at some point in the race.
2-Brad Keselowski: I feel for Brad Keselowski, he had the best car at Talladega and dominated the race in the early going but blew up before the race was over. With that said, he also got eliminated from the chase because of it. Going forward, I expect him to still be pretty good though. Just think Penske will give Logano the better equipment. That doesn't Keselowski won't run well or better than Logano at times, however his loses whatever appealness as a fantasy option to me though. But if you have followed my content this season, I have always been a bit hard on Brad. He always has ran well at Martinsville and showed it again earlier this season. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 21.6 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 90.5 driver rating. He just has no luck at Martinsville. Over his past 5 races here, he has posted 3 finishes outside of the top 30. Last November, he got into involved in that mess late in the race with Logano and others. And finished 32nd. Prior to that, he led 143 laps. In 2014, he also had a pair of finishes outside of the top 30. I believe October 2014 he had some type of mechanical issue which cost him a solid finish. I don't really remember what happened to him in the spring race, but I went to say an wreck though. Point being? He has been strong at Martinsville. In 5 of hist past 7 races at Martinsville, he has compiled driver rating above 100. That's important because driver rating tells the tail of a tape how strong a driver performed. Even if he had a misleading finish. 5 of 7 races is pretty good. Overall, he has posted 8 Top 12 finishes in 13 career races. Brad has 5 Top 6 finishes over his past 8 races at Martinsville. If Brad can avoid bad luck then he should be a solid choice as a fantasy option. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 10 driver.
3-Austin Dillon: Austin Dillon has had an amazing 2016 season and doesn't get enough credit for what he has accomplished overall! He almost advanced to the next round of the chase at Talladega and that was considered a long shot by many when this chase started. In fact, most had him out after the first round. However, his consistency got him very further. It was something I said was an must for him to have fantasy relevancy back in the offseason. Well , he definitely checked that off the list. However, I am not super high on him at a track like Martinsville though. He finished 4th earlier this season though. He also has ran well at Martinsville since his debut. If you take out that one bad race in March 2015 , he has compiled 12.3 average finish with 19.3 average running position and 73.7 driver rating. Two things pop out at me at first glance without even digging into the data! First, he has an very solid 12.3 average finish. I love that number over an 4-race span from a young driver like Dillon at Martinsville! Second would be his performance numbers, they don't match his average finish. Usually, I would say to stay away from him and let someone else be fooled but in this case I actually don't. Look at earlier this season when he finished 4th place. He had a great race overall. He posted an 90.4 driver rating and completed 77% of the laps inside the top 15 with 14.0 average running position. Why is that impressive? He started back in 29th place. Martinsville is a difficult place to make a lot of passes at and laps fly by here. The fact that he posted those type of numbers, give me reasons to at least him an shot this week. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 15 driver with the usual limited upside.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is having a great season and will be one of 8 drivers who will have an chance at the championship! Harvick has consistently been one of the fastest drivers every single week since joining SHR. Martinsville has been no different, even though I feel like people undervalue him because this isn't a bread and butter 1.5 mile track. Harvick still been rock solid at this place, despite being overlooked. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 14.6 average finish with 10.6 average running position and 104.3 driver rating. In that 5-race span, he has 3 Top 10 finishes but haven't recorded an top 5 finish since the 2011 season where he swept the top 5. Including an win and 4th place finish that season. Overall, he has posted 4 Top 10 finishes in his past 6 races at this track. Still no top 5 finishes. Earlier this season, he was very strong despite finishing 17th. He had an top 5 car for the event. His performance numbers were incredibly strong for the event with 5.0 average running position and 111.9 driver rating. The final position usually isn't that important, if the race performance says otherwise. In Harvick's case, the final position is irrelevant. In fact, no driver in the series has been stronger than Harvick over the past 3 races at Martinsville. You are likely thinking I am crazy, but I am really not though. Listen to his past three Martinsville's races: 11.0 average finish, 4.7 average running position (Series-best) , 264 laps led (3rd-most), 97% laps completed inside the top 15 (Series-high), 191 fast laps (Series-best) 119.2 driver rating (2nd-best). Harvick should be on your short list as one of the heavy favorites this weekend at Martinsville.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne finish at Talladega last weekend was something we has came customed to over the years. However, his 35th place finish at Talladega was his first non-top 14 finish in 10 races. Prior to his bad luck at Talladega, he has finished 14th in 9 straight races. Including 7 Top 10 finishes in his past 8 races this season. All 8 of those races has ended in 12th or better. So yeah, he was on a hot streak (on him at least). What can you expect at Martinsville from him? Hard to say honestly, but this is a great track for Hendrick Motorsports though. Kahne has been inconsistent here though. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 20.8 average finish with 19.4 average running position and 73.4 driver rating. Over the past couple seasons, it has been tough being Kasey Kahne. And Martinsville has been no different for Kasey. He has posted 4 finishes outside of the top 11 in his past 6 attempts at this track. However, the trend is headed in the right direction overall. He has posted finishes of 11th and 9th over his past 3 starts at the track. He finished 22nd earlier this season, but HMS just wasn't right at the moment. They struggled as a whole overall in my opinion and Kahne finished 22nd. I think it a good sign that Hendrick is running well right now and it should give Kahne a good chance to post an 3rd Top 12 finish in past 3 Martinsville races. I am not saying he is a lock, but I expect him to be an quality fantasy pick in Yahoo Fantasy Racing and other formats that focus in on finish position.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin advanced to the round of 8 with an strong top 5 finish at Talladega, just edging out Austin Dillon. Hamlin now has the points resetting and has three great tracks ahead of him. Starting with probably his best racetrack on the schedule at Martinsville. Hamlin been a stud here since his debut and has regain that form recently at the track. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 14.0 average finish with 12.8 average running position and 97.4 driver rating. Hamlin have been very strong over his past 3 races at this track overall. May had the best car back in the spring, before having to go to garage he had the fastest car on the track if I remember right. And then last season, he posted finishes of 1st and 3rd. As good as Hamlin has been of late, he may have already hit his peak at Martinsville. Every great driver at Martinsville will find a stench of races were they are flat out insane. Hamlin hit that mark early in his career from 2006 to 2010 seasons. During that 9-race span, he posted 7 Top 3 finishes. Including 6 Top 2 finishes with 4 of those ending in wins. He scored his fifth career win here last season. I guess my point being, he may not get on a streak like he did in those seasons again. As this sport changes more and more, it becomes harder to go on those impressive streaks like he did from 2006 to 2010. In fact, he won 3 straight and 4 straight top 2 finishes in 2009 and 2010 seasons. He's one of the best bets this weekend though. He's on my short list of winners for the weekend before any practice!
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy is having a great season and just as good chase so far. His worst finish by far was at Talladega and that was because he was playing it safe. Now, he has advanced to the next round of the chase and will be one of the best fantasy options this weekend. Not many realized it, but Rowdy is by far one of the best drivers at Martinsville. He always seems to be get overlooked for other drivers, even though he been a stud lately. I think this past spring race have shown a lot of people the light however. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 7.8 average finish with 8.8 average running position and 107.2 driver rating. Over the past 7 races overall, Rowdy has posted 7 straight Top 15 finishes. He also has 4 Top 5 finishes in that 7 race-span as well. Over his past 11 races here, he has posted 6 Top 5 finishes but his other 5 finishes in that span has ended in 11th or better. With that said, 9 of those 11 races has resulted in 15th place or better. That's says consistency to me and even if you don't expect his finishes to be outside of the top 5. It good to know, he haven't had many poor finishes at this track recently. JGR also has been very stout this season on shorter tracks this season. That's no secret by the way. Clearly JGR still holds a huge advantage in that apsect of the sport. I think they have been passed on the intermediate tracks though. Headed into the weekend, I view Kyle Busch as a top 5 contender and one of the favorites.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards like his JGR teammates was able to advance to round of 8 and will have a great shot at having a good finish at Martinsville. Edwards isn't having a overly impressive chase, but he also isn't doing bad either though. I just haven't seen that ''eye popping'' performance from him though. He was good at Martinsville either this season. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 14.0 average finish with 14.8 average running position and 84.9 driver rating. 3 of those races has been with JGR. Overall, his number haven't been terrible at Martinsville but his performances in those races been just okay. He was the worst of the JGR earlier this season in my opinion and finished 6th. Overall, I like Edwards but haven't been on the same level of speed as his teammates since August and it is becoming increasingly worrisome to me. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 10 driver but that's all though. He will need to be consistent to advanced based on what we already know. Recently, he has been nothing more than an top 10 driver on a weekly basis. Prior to practice, that is the feel I am getting once again this week. Of course that just my personal opinion though.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth was once known as a weak driver at Martinsville, however his Martinsville's record has transformed into a complete stud since joining JGR. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 13.8 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 100.0 driver rating. Since joining JGR in 2013, he has not had one poor performance at this track. He has been impressive with 6 Top 15 finishes in his past 7 races overall. Earlier this season, he was very strong at Martinsville. He had the second-best car in that race before fading in the final laps. Kenseth has posted 4 Top 6 finishes in past 6 races at this track. I also like the fact that he had strong runs at New Hampshire, Dover, and Richmond. None of those track actually translate to Martinsville, however they are all 1-mile or less in length. I always like looking at venues like that when we come to a place like Martinsville. They may not be similar, but they are all are considered ''shorter'' racetracks. Don't put too much into it though, since the shorter aspect is the only thing that is really relevant. Martinsville isn't comparable otherwise. Anyways, I view Kenseth as a low-end top 10/ Top 5 option headed into the weekend.
22-Joey Logano: Logano won at Talladega for the twice straight season and will complete in the round of 8. Last season at this time, Logano was feuding with Matt Kenseth and we all saw how that ended. I think it will be much different this time around. He always been pretty good at Martinsville. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 12.0 average finish with 7.4 average running position and 110.4 driver rating. Logano has started on the pole in 3 straight races at Martinsville. While leading in 5 straight races as well. In that 5-race span, he has posted 4 Top 11 finishes. Including 3 Top 5 finishes. However, it seems like the 22 team this season has struggled to stay up front on these shorter tracks. For some reason, he always fade on the long run in first half of the race, before rallying for a solid finish. Not something I really like, but I think the 22 team is running better of late though. He has shown more speed lately in the chase and I think he will be able to be least an top 10 fantasy pick.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott was eliminated from the chase after Talladega, but you can expect him to still be a solid contender in the remaining races. I don't think he loses much value overall in terms of fantasy, because his teammates Alex Bowman and Kasey Kahne also were running well in the chase. And they weren't apart of the chase. So I doubt we see Elliott lose much going forward, even with Johnson still apart of the chase. However, of the remaining races this season I like him the least at Martinsville. This is a track that he has struggled at in his first two races this season. Earlier this season, he really struggled and finished outside of the top 20. He has more inexperience now but I still don't like him that much this week. At best, I would say he is a top 20 driver headed into the weekend.
41-Kurt Busch: I have been very tough on Kurt Busch this season because he haven't really offered much upside most weekends. And this weekend, I am not very high on him either. This is a tough track for him overall. In 32 career races at the track, he has posted 11 Top 15 finishes. Including only two top 5 finishes over his past 22 career races at the track. That's very unimpressive. He won back here in his first start with SHR in 2014. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 19.6 average finish with 10.6 average running position and 93.7 driver rating. His performance numbers says he have performed very well in those races, much better than his final finish position shows. Overall, there is not a lot to say about Kurt Busch really. He will likely be a top 10 to top 12 performer. He will lack much upside based on what we had seen this season from him.
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson shocked many people back in April with an strong 3rd place run. Larson ran top 10 for most of the day, prior to that he never even sniffed the top 10 in his Cup career at Martinsville. Flat out he has been terrible here, he even passed out before a race here in 2015 and wasn't able to race that weekend. On top of that, he only had one top 20 finish prior to finishing 3rd and that 19th place back in November of last season. Also, he posted an 77.9 driver rating in that event and that was his best to date at that point. Obviously, Larson made major gains back in April at this track. He also has more speed in his car right now. In fact, over the past 9 races this season, he has posted 6 Top 10 finishes. Larson isn't really an ideal fantasy choice this weekend with an questionable track record. However, I don't hate him this week. Personally, I think he could surprise some people with another strong run. With that said, I could see him getting another finish in the 20s as well, too. Headed into the weekend, I view him as an top 12 fantasy choice with upside to finish inside the top 10.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson advanced to the round of 8 with winning at Charlotte a couple weeks ago and now will try to do the same this weekend at Martinsville. Johnson is one of the most successful drivers ever at this historic racetrack. He's should be one of the few drivers you have on your radar as possible winners. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 18.0 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 95.6 driver rating. He haven't found much success over the past 4 races here with best finish coming of 9th place back this spring. But over the previous 16 races, he has posted 7 wins and 12 Top 5 finishes in that span. So, why he haven't performed well recently, it obvious that he is a strong performer at Martinsville. Overall, his last two races at Martinsville has ended in 9th and 12th. He wasn't a heavy contender in either race, but I do like the fact that HMS is running better now. I don't think they are on the same level as the Gibbs cars are on the shorter racetracks, but they are slowly catching them. And Johnson will be the first one to benefit from that. I think Johnson is the odds-on favorite to win this weekend. For multiple reasons, the two main reasons are how strong he has been lately and of course his track record as well.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Martin Truex Jr was eliminated from the chase after Talladega, I was sick to my stomach as I watch Truex Jr do his interview after his engine blew up. I felt bad for him, because he had the speed to win the championship during the chase. Now it is question how well he will do in the incoming weeks. I think him being out of the chase hurts because all of the JGR cars are still in and I am sure JGR will give their drivers the best stuff first. Truex still will be a factor going forward though. But I don't know if he will be as dominant as the first round of the chase. Also, I don't like Truex much this weekend to begin with. He is primary stronger on the intermediate tracks. He haven't shown that consistent strong speed on the shorter tracks this season. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 17.8 average finish with 15.6 average running position and 77.5 driver rating. He haven't found much success recently at Martinsville overall. He has a pair of 6th place finishes in the past three races. But otherwise, his numbers are not very good. He only has 4 Top 10 finishes over his past 10 races at Martinsville. Otherwise most of his finishes have came in 16th or worse. Overall in 21 career starts, he has posted only 6 Top 10 finishes. I guess I haven't been high on Truex this season on the shorter tracks and that why I am not loving him much. I would like him more, if we were at Texas this weekend. Truex will have to show me something in practice before I have him on my fantasy radar.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
