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Chase Elliott is entering his 2nd full-time season as the driver of the No.24 car! He had a very successful 2016 rookie season with Hendrick Motorsports. Many people have high standards for him in 2017, however you want to cool the jets with Elliott though. I only say this because recent history says that he could have a down year. Think of 2014 rookies of Austin Dillon and Kyle Larson. Both had solid rookie seasons in 2014. Then saw regressions in 2015. That's called the sophomore slump. Is Elliott in dangerous of regressing in 2017? I think it is a real possibility, especially after the year he had as a rookie. 17 Top 10 finishes and 10 Top 5 finishes. I think that could be difficult to repeat. Could he go out and have an even better season in 2017? Absolutely. Either, wouldn't surprise me honestly.
I think Elliott will be strongest on the intermediate tracks, honestly I think that is the only type of track that he will be stout at. Every other type of track, he will have his moments but not really having that winning potential. Sounds weird, but most days, he will be high-single digits to low-teens. Of course, I am judging that based off his rookie's season. He will get better throughout his second season, so he could easily make gains and disprove all what I said.
Elliott's biggest strength will be the intermediate tracks in 2017 overall. This was a obvious strength for him in his rookie year and his the lower series. On top of that, the HMS cars usually excel on these type of tracks. No surprise that Elliott was at his best on the intermediate, more often not not. What are his best tracks on the intermediate tracks? Hard to say will such limited data to go on. But I am going with Texas and Michigan as his top 2 intermediate tracks. Chicago and Dover are also at top of my list, but like I said it is hard to say. Especially since, we only have one-year worth of data on him. That's my big issues with young drivers from a analysis objected view, there's isn't enough data to go on.
Michigan was his best track in 2016, he was very strong in both races. He contended for wins in both of those races. In the first Michigan's race, he ran top 3 all day and could have won that race. He slipped up late on a restart and let the other dominant driver (Logano) get by. Elliott couldn't recover and had to settle for 2nd place. In the 2nd Michigan race? He had another great car and had slightly better race. He should had won that race, too. He battled with fellow young driver, Kyle Larson. Elliott beat him off pit road late and pulled away as Larson had a near incident in traffic. Caution came out late and once again, he slipped up and Larson drove around him on the start. Elliott had to settle for 2nd place once again on that day. He led 66 laps in two races at Michigan in 2016 and had driver rating over 122.0 in both races. Pretty damn impressive for a rookie!
Texas and Dover, both were pretty solid for him in 2016 as well. He finished inside the top 5 in both races in both of those tracks. At Texas in 2016, he had finishes of 4th and 5th. He compiled 4.5 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 100.8 driver rating. Those are very good numbers, he also completed 90% of the laps inside the top 15. He was extremely strong in the 2nd Texas race, his driver rating went up from 94.6 (in the first race) to 106.7 in the 2nd race. He also ran really good at Dover as well. In 2 races at Dover (in 2016), he compiled 3.0 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 100.9 driver rating. He was good in the fist race, but he was a legit top 7 driver in the second. In that event, he compiled 7.0 average running position and 105.6 driver rating. Very good in that event overall and finished 3rd place.
The shorter flats will be a good but not great place him. In his rookie season, he posted good results on the shorter flats. His best track in his rookie season had to be Phoenix no doubt. He posted finishes of 8th and 9th last season. The only shorter flat that he sweep the top 10! In 2 races in 2016 at Phoenix, he compiled 8.5 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 103.9 driver rating. Very good numbers. He had a better performance in the second race (logically as expected), but finished 1 position (8th) better than (9th) in the 2nd race. I was surprised that he had his best two races at Phoenix. Heading into the season, I figured Richmond would be his best shorter flat. It was a great track for him the lower series.
Elliott ran great at New Hampshire in 2016! Yes, he really did but you wouldn't know it by the numbers. In 2016, he compiled an average finish of 23.5 for finishes of 13th and 33rd. Not good at all, but his performance numbers tell entire another story though. In 2 races in 2016, he compiled 7.5 average running position and 93.0 driver rating. He ran top 10 mainly until he got into teammate Alex Bowman in the first race. He couldn't finish on the lead lap and finished 33rd. 2nd race was better for him and finished 13th. He was far better than that though. In the fall race (at New Hampshire), he compiled an 5.0 average running position and 106.9 driver rating.
He was good at Richmond in 2016, but he disappointed me overall. He was just good enough in both races honestly. He finished 12th and 19th in two races at Richmond in 2016. Neither race was anything special. In 2 races at Richmond in 2016, he compiled 15.5 average finish with 21.0 average running position and 70.9 driver rating. He was okay in the first race overall and finished 12th. He had 18.0 average running position with 77.0 driver rating for the race. He was even worse at the 2nd race in the fall. Qualified poorly and contended in the low to middle 20s for the entire event. Sneak inside the top 20 at very end to finish 19th. He actually looked like a rookie at Richmond.
Larger flats will be another good place for Elliott, I think is ranked as his second-best kind of track overall behind the intermediate tracks. In 2016, he compiled 17.3 average finish with 12.7 average running position and 93.1 driver rating. Misleading numbers when really thinking about, because that data includes when he finished 33rd in the 2nd Pocono race. He finished 4th (while leading a race-high 51 laps) in the first Pocono race. He had the dominant car that day, and posted a race-high driver rating. Indy was okay to him in his first two starts, as he has posted finishes of 15th and 18th. Nothing special at either track, but Hendrick was lacking speed when they went to Indy last season, too. So it is hard to judge him at Indy, with some little data to go on. I think, he will be strong on the larger flats. Especially, since the big-time teams usually have the horsepower advantage and that itself is a big leg up over the competition.
Plate tracks will be the wildcard for Elliott, he has potential to win on the plates but he needs to finish out races in order to have that potential. With that said, he had two different experiences at the plate tracks in 2016. At Talladega, he posted finishes of 12th and 5th, with average running position of 9.0. That ARP was ranked 3rd in the series at Talladega in 2016, in case you were wondering. At Daytona? Well that was a completely different story though. In 2 races at Daytona in 2016, he compiled 34.5 average finish with 30.0 average running position and 46.2 driver rating. In simply terms, he wrecked in both races.
Short tracks will be good to him, but he is a working progress overall though. He ran well at Bristol in 2016 and had two quality performances. He finished 4th and 15th in two races at Bristol. He's good at Bristol, no doubt. His driver rating was consistent in the mid-90s in both races, so that's a good indication. A mid-90 driver rating usually translate to being a low-teen driver or maybe at best high-single digit driver. He compiled 12.5 average running position with 94.6 driver rating and completed 69% of the laps inside the top 15. That mid-90 driver rating seems to line up with his performance when looking at the numbers.
Martinsville was his troublesome spot in 2016 among all of his tracks. I would consider it a track that Elliott has struggled on a bit in three starts. Seems odd that a HMS driver would struggle at Martinsville, but a lot of young drivers commonly struggle there. It's a tough track to master. He was much better there in his last start there, where he finished 12th. He finished 20th in the spring race, earlier in the season. He made really good progress from his first race there (in 2015) to his most recent start there. I like the trend too. Improved his finish position in every start. Maybe a top 10 finish in store for him soon?
Road courses will likely be the biggest weakness for him in 2017, I think. I don't get that Elliott will be a gem on the road courses honestly. Not a driver that has a lot of experience on him either. He should get better with more experience though. He wasn't bad at the two road courses last year, as he had finishes of 13th and 21st. Solid for a rookie, but hard to make an argument that he will a legit fantasy option at either track though. Both road courses, I would rank outside of his top 10 tracks overall. He finished higher at Watkins Glenn than Sonoma. At Watkins Glenn, he finished 13th in 2016. He was worse than that though. He had 16.0 average running position with 79.9 driver rating and completed only 42% of the laps inside the top 15. Not real great numbers, but decent for him. Sonoma is the tougher track, so logically his numbers were worse. At Sonoma's last season, he compiled 20.0 average running position with 67.7 driver rating and completed 10% of the laps inside the top 15. He finished 21st in that race. A lot of numbers, I just mentioned. So what does that exactly means for his fantasy value at road courses? It means this: He doesn't have much value, until he can prove himself on the road courses.
Chase Elliott is one of the most fun young drivers to watch in Nascar, right now. He failed to win a race in his rookie season. So many people are expecting him to win a race soon. I get that and completely agree that Elliott should win in 2017. With that said, I wouldn't be shocked if he has a rough 2nd year. Ricky Stenhouse, Austin Dillon and Kyle Larson all had solid rookie seasons, followed by hitting a brick in year 2. It not completely out of the question, but Elliott is in far better equipment than any of those drivers. I think that what will likely save him from that slump. Still, 17 Top 10 finishes and 10 Top 5 finishes would be tough to repeat. I think Elliott will be at his best on the intermediate tracks and larger flats. Those are the two type of tracks that I expect the most out him. The short tracks, shorter flats and plate tracks will be good places for him. However, I think he he has nothing beyond high-single digit to low-teen potential. The road courses will be, where he is at his worst most likely. Will Elliott go to victory lane or will he start to get the Kyle Larson's treatment? We will find out very soon!
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Chase Elliott is entering his 2nd full-time season as the driver of the No.24 car! He had a very successful 2016 rookie season with Hendrick Motorsports. Many people have high standards for him in 2017, however you want to cool the jets with Elliott though. I only say this because recent history says that he could have a down year. Think of 2014 rookies of Austin Dillon and Kyle Larson. Both had solid rookie seasons in 2014. Then saw regressions in 2015. That's called the sophomore slump. Is Elliott in dangerous of regressing in 2017? I think it is a real possibility, especially after the year he had as a rookie. 17 Top 10 finishes and 10 Top 5 finishes. I think that could be difficult to repeat. Could he go out and have an even better season in 2017? Absolutely. Either, wouldn't surprise me honestly.
I think Elliott will be strongest on the intermediate tracks, honestly I think that is the only type of track that he will be stout at. Every other type of track, he will have his moments but not really having that winning potential. Sounds weird, but most days, he will be high-single digits to low-teens. Of course, I am judging that based off his rookie's season. He will get better throughout his second season, so he could easily make gains and disprove all what I said.
Elliott's biggest strength will be the intermediate tracks in 2017 overall. This was a obvious strength for him in his rookie year and his the lower series. On top of that, the HMS cars usually excel on these type of tracks. No surprise that Elliott was at his best on the intermediate, more often not not. What are his best tracks on the intermediate tracks? Hard to say will such limited data to go on. But I am going with Texas and Michigan as his top 2 intermediate tracks. Chicago and Dover are also at top of my list, but like I said it is hard to say. Especially since, we only have one-year worth of data on him. That's my big issues with young drivers from a analysis objected view, there's isn't enough data to go on.
Michigan was his best track in 2016, he was very strong in both races. He contended for wins in both of those races. In the first Michigan's race, he ran top 3 all day and could have won that race. He slipped up late on a restart and let the other dominant driver (Logano) get by. Elliott couldn't recover and had to settle for 2nd place. In the 2nd Michigan race? He had another great car and had slightly better race. He should had won that race, too. He battled with fellow young driver, Kyle Larson. Elliott beat him off pit road late and pulled away as Larson had a near incident in traffic. Caution came out late and once again, he slipped up and Larson drove around him on the start. Elliott had to settle for 2nd place once again on that day. He led 66 laps in two races at Michigan in 2016 and had driver rating over 122.0 in both races. Pretty damn impressive for a rookie!
Texas and Dover, both were pretty solid for him in 2016 as well. He finished inside the top 5 in both races in both of those tracks. At Texas in 2016, he had finishes of 4th and 5th. He compiled 4.5 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 100.8 driver rating. Those are very good numbers, he also completed 90% of the laps inside the top 15. He was extremely strong in the 2nd Texas race, his driver rating went up from 94.6 (in the first race) to 106.7 in the 2nd race. He also ran really good at Dover as well. In 2 races at Dover (in 2016), he compiled 3.0 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 100.9 driver rating. He was good in the fist race, but he was a legit top 7 driver in the second. In that event, he compiled 7.0 average running position and 105.6 driver rating. Very good in that event overall and finished 3rd place.
The shorter flats will be a good but not great place him. In his rookie season, he posted good results on the shorter flats. His best track in his rookie season had to be Phoenix no doubt. He posted finishes of 8th and 9th last season. The only shorter flat that he sweep the top 10! In 2 races in 2016 at Phoenix, he compiled 8.5 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 103.9 driver rating. Very good numbers. He had a better performance in the second race (logically as expected), but finished 1 position (8th) better than (9th) in the 2nd race. I was surprised that he had his best two races at Phoenix. Heading into the season, I figured Richmond would be his best shorter flat. It was a great track for him the lower series.
Elliott ran great at New Hampshire in 2016! Yes, he really did but you wouldn't know it by the numbers. In 2016, he compiled an average finish of 23.5 for finishes of 13th and 33rd. Not good at all, but his performance numbers tell entire another story though. In 2 races in 2016, he compiled 7.5 average running position and 93.0 driver rating. He ran top 10 mainly until he got into teammate Alex Bowman in the first race. He couldn't finish on the lead lap and finished 33rd. 2nd race was better for him and finished 13th. He was far better than that though. In the fall race (at New Hampshire), he compiled an 5.0 average running position and 106.9 driver rating.
He was good at Richmond in 2016, but he disappointed me overall. He was just good enough in both races honestly. He finished 12th and 19th in two races at Richmond in 2016. Neither race was anything special. In 2 races at Richmond in 2016, he compiled 15.5 average finish with 21.0 average running position and 70.9 driver rating. He was okay in the first race overall and finished 12th. He had 18.0 average running position with 77.0 driver rating for the race. He was even worse at the 2nd race in the fall. Qualified poorly and contended in the low to middle 20s for the entire event. Sneak inside the top 20 at very end to finish 19th. He actually looked like a rookie at Richmond.
Larger flats will be another good place for Elliott, I think is ranked as his second-best kind of track overall behind the intermediate tracks. In 2016, he compiled 17.3 average finish with 12.7 average running position and 93.1 driver rating. Misleading numbers when really thinking about, because that data includes when he finished 33rd in the 2nd Pocono race. He finished 4th (while leading a race-high 51 laps) in the first Pocono race. He had the dominant car that day, and posted a race-high driver rating. Indy was okay to him in his first two starts, as he has posted finishes of 15th and 18th. Nothing special at either track, but Hendrick was lacking speed when they went to Indy last season, too. So it is hard to judge him at Indy, with some little data to go on. I think, he will be strong on the larger flats. Especially, since the big-time teams usually have the horsepower advantage and that itself is a big leg up over the competition.
Plate tracks will be the wildcard for Elliott, he has potential to win on the plates but he needs to finish out races in order to have that potential. With that said, he had two different experiences at the plate tracks in 2016. At Talladega, he posted finishes of 12th and 5th, with average running position of 9.0. That ARP was ranked 3rd in the series at Talladega in 2016, in case you were wondering. At Daytona? Well that was a completely different story though. In 2 races at Daytona in 2016, he compiled 34.5 average finish with 30.0 average running position and 46.2 driver rating. In simply terms, he wrecked in both races.
Short tracks will be good to him, but he is a working progress overall though. He ran well at Bristol in 2016 and had two quality performances. He finished 4th and 15th in two races at Bristol. He's good at Bristol, no doubt. His driver rating was consistent in the mid-90s in both races, so that's a good indication. A mid-90 driver rating usually translate to being a low-teen driver or maybe at best high-single digit driver. He compiled 12.5 average running position with 94.6 driver rating and completed 69% of the laps inside the top 15. That mid-90 driver rating seems to line up with his performance when looking at the numbers.
Martinsville was his troublesome spot in 2016 among all of his tracks. I would consider it a track that Elliott has struggled on a bit in three starts. Seems odd that a HMS driver would struggle at Martinsville, but a lot of young drivers commonly struggle there. It's a tough track to master. He was much better there in his last start there, where he finished 12th. He finished 20th in the spring race, earlier in the season. He made really good progress from his first race there (in 2015) to his most recent start there. I like the trend too. Improved his finish position in every start. Maybe a top 10 finish in store for him soon?
Road courses will likely be the biggest weakness for him in 2017, I think. I don't get that Elliott will be a gem on the road courses honestly. Not a driver that has a lot of experience on him either. He should get better with more experience though. He wasn't bad at the two road courses last year, as he had finishes of 13th and 21st. Solid for a rookie, but hard to make an argument that he will a legit fantasy option at either track though. Both road courses, I would rank outside of his top 10 tracks overall. He finished higher at Watkins Glenn than Sonoma. At Watkins Glenn, he finished 13th in 2016. He was worse than that though. He had 16.0 average running position with 79.9 driver rating and completed only 42% of the laps inside the top 15. Not real great numbers, but decent for him. Sonoma is the tougher track, so logically his numbers were worse. At Sonoma's last season, he compiled 20.0 average running position with 67.7 driver rating and completed 10% of the laps inside the top 15. He finished 21st in that race. A lot of numbers, I just mentioned. So what does that exactly means for his fantasy value at road courses? It means this: He doesn't have much value, until he can prove himself on the road courses.
Chase Elliott is one of the most fun young drivers to watch in Nascar, right now. He failed to win a race in his rookie season. So many people are expecting him to win a race soon. I get that and completely agree that Elliott should win in 2017. With that said, I wouldn't be shocked if he has a rough 2nd year. Ricky Stenhouse, Austin Dillon and Kyle Larson all had solid rookie seasons, followed by hitting a brick in year 2. It not completely out of the question, but Elliott is in far better equipment than any of those drivers. I think that what will likely save him from that slump. Still, 17 Top 10 finishes and 10 Top 5 finishes would be tough to repeat. I think Elliott will be at his best on the intermediate tracks and larger flats. Those are the two type of tracks that I expect the most out him. The short tracks, shorter flats and plate tracks will be good places for him. However, I think he he has nothing beyond high-single digit to low-teen potential. The road courses will be, where he is at his worst most likely. Will Elliott go to victory lane or will he start to get the Kyle Larson's treatment? We will find out very soon!
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
