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JMac had a very good 2016 season, he just won't get the credit he deserves. JMac isn't in top equipment or has the most talent in the world, so what he has done the last couple seasons has been very respectable. This could be the final season at Chip Ganassi Racing for JMac. There is a good possibility of that. Especially if CGR contains Larson beyond 2017, then JMac could be looking for a new team. With that said, his performance in 2017 will be a big factor in that as well. Hard to say what his future will be honestly. JMac will be his strength at the shorter flat tracks and most likely the intermediate tracks. He will also have strong runs at the road courses and short tracks. He has a history of success at plate races. So there really isn't an specific type of track that he performs poorly at, but there are certain tracks that you would want to target him at more than others.
The intermediate tracks is the first type of track that I would like to look at, simply because it is the bread and butter of Nascar right now. You must run well at the intermediate tracks to be successful overall. JMac isn't a driver that goes out and run up inside the top 5, but he is consistent with his finishes. Most likely, you can expect finishes in the high single digit to middle teens. So from 9th-17th is the likely range I see him finishing on the intermediate tacks! I would say most weekends it is between 12th-17th though. His best intermediate tracks? Homestead, Michigan and Texas are his best tracks. I also would list places like Kentucky and Charlotte as well. His worst intermediate tracks are Kansas (finished outside the top 20 in 4 of the past 6 races) and Atlanta (has his career highest DNF rate among active tracks - not named Daytona or Talladega.)
Homestead is JMac's best intermediate track from career point of view and it's really not close honestly. Over the past 3 seasons at Homestead, he has compiled 7.7 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 87.4 driver rating. His performance numbers aren't quite on the same level as his finishes, but those are still very good numbers though. Over his past 6 races overall at Homestead, he has compiled 5 Top 20 finishes, with 4 of those finishes ending in 14th or better. Michigan and Texas are both good tracks for JMac. But I would go with Michigan or Texas right now. He has ran very well at Michigan of late. His teammate actually ran top 3 in both races last season, so it clear that CGR has Michigan figured out. Over the past 4 races at Michigan, JMac has compiled an 10.0 average finish with 3 Top 10 finishes. In fact, he has finished 16th or better in 6 straight races at Michigan now. On top of that, 5 of those 6 races has ended in 14th or better as well. Texas been good to JMac, just not as good as Homestead or Michigan though. Over the past 6 races at Texas, he has compiled 6 straight Top 19 finishes. Over just the past 5 races at Texas, he has compiled 4 finishes of 13th or better. When really thinking about it, his top 3 tracks can be arranged in any order. Texas is nearly as good place for him as Homestead and Michigan. Places like Charlotte, Kentucky and Las Vegas should also be considered.
Shorter flats should be considered as JMac's strength area, as he has found the most success over the years at them. He will likely knock out his best finishes at the tracks of Phoenix, Richmond and New Hampshire. He has ran well at all of them at some point or another. They are all very good tracks for him, but I say Richmond is the standout track of late though. He's great at Richmond and has the numbers to be ranked among the best. Over the past 7 races at Richmond, he has compiled 8.7 average finish with 9.9 average running position and 97.7 driver rating. In that 7-race span, he has compiled 4 finishes of 7th or better. Including three-4th place finishes. In that 7-race span, he has also collected 6 finishes of 13th or better. In short, Richmond could be his best racetrack over the past 3.5 seasons.
Phoenix and New Hampshire are also very good tracks for him, but I would say that Phoenix been the better place for him more recently. Over the past 6 races at Phoenix, he has compiled 6 straight Top 16 finishes. He has also posted 5 finishes of 15th or better in that span as well. 3 of those 5 races ended in 11th or better as well. Like with most of the tracks, we had looked at, he is very consistent inside the top 16. Same goes for New Hampshire, too. Over the past 8 races at New Hampshire, he has compiled 6 finishes of 16th or better. Including 3 of the past 5 in 14th or better. Simply put, JMac is super consistent inside the top 16 on the shorter-flat tracks!
The Larger flats will be a good place him, like most places he will have potential in the low to middle teens though. Pocono should be a good place to use him, its just isn't the first place people think about him though. Over the past 10 races at Pocono, he has finished inside the top 20 in every single race! He has also posted 5 finishes of 16th or better over the past 7 races at Pocono. 4 of the past 6 races at Pocono has ended inside the top 15 for JMac. Indy is the better track for him from a career point of view though. Indy ranked first among all tracks in terms of average finish. His numbers recently has been just okay though. He won the Brickyard back in 2010 and then finished 4th in 11th. Since? 5 straight races that all had ended in the 15th-22nd range. 3 of those 5 races ended in 19th-22nd as well. Not good numbers, but not terrible numbers either. He is consistent, but that's just about it. No real upside, I personally would use him at Pocono before Indy.
Short tracks will be another good place to use him and has found good amount of success at both tracks. I think Martinsville is the better track for him though. JMac just understands how to get around Martinsville well and considered one of his best tracks on the schedule. Over the past 8 races at Martinsville, he has compiled 6 finishes of 16th or better. Also, 5 of those 8 races has ended in 10th or better. More impressive? Over the past 4 races at Martinsville, he has finished 8th or better in 3 of 4 races. Why is that significant? He has collected 3 races with an driver rating above 92.0. In fact, 4 of the past 5 races, he has posted an driver rating above 92. At most tracks, his driver ratings are in the 70s and 80s as the normal. Martinsville isn't an normal track for him though.
Bristol will be another really good track for him overall. Over the past 5 races at Bristol, he has finished 14th or better in every race. If he didn't get involved in a wrecked at Bristol in April 2014, he would had 6 straight races of 14th or better. He was running well inside the top 10 when the wreck happened. Otherwise, he has posted 3 finishes of 11th or better in his past 5 races. With of course no finishes worse than 14th in that span. He's so damn good on these shorter tracks in general. Expect more of the same in 2017!
I would say that Road courses and Plate tracks are weaknesses for JMac. He has good history at both type of tracks, but he tend to get a lot of bad luck/bad finishes at them though. More so at the plate races though. He is overrated there, in my personal opinion. Does that mean he cannot get the finishes? Nope, he could but he will need to have some luck.
At Talladega, he has been okay. He been decent with 3 top 20 finishes over his past 4 races at Talladega overall. But that's really the best thing I can with him for the past 5 races. Outside of his win in 2013 that is. Since, 8 of the past 12 races ended in 19th or worse. On the plus side, he has finished 19th, 11th and 4th over 3 of the past 4 races. Long-term, he has had very little success at Talladega, but lately his luck been turning for the better. I like that! He has been okay at Daytona, just not nothing special in terms of final finish. Over the past 6 races at Daytona, he has compiled 3 top 17 finishes. While posting 3 finishes of 27th or worse as well. Even worse? He only has one finish inside the top 10 since July 2010. On top of that, he has only 6 Top 20 finishes over his past 13 races at Daytona! He has the talent to be up at the front as a drafter, but he doesn't seems to get it done at the end.
Road courses will be similar, he can run well on them but doesn't always get the finishes. For whatever reason last season, the CGR had terrible luck on the road courses. Wrecks and penalities can sum their year up at both Sonoma and WGI. JMac will look to have different outcome in 2017. I think he is better at Watkins Glenn overall. He seems to run well at Sonoma s well but just have bad luck too much. Like last season, where he got a penalty late in the event and never recovered. Overall, 5 of the past 7 Sonoma races has ended in 17th or better. 3 of those 4 races ended in 15th or better. I think he is better at Watkins Glenn lately than he been at Sonoma, mainly because he has gotten the finishes at Watkins Glenn. Also, Watkins Glenn is easier to get around and stuff. Over the past 4 races at WGI, he has compiled 3 finishes of 14th or better. Including finishes of 8th, 14th and 11th over the past 4 seasons there. Another thing to like about him at WGI? Only two bad races since the 2010 season. Every other race has ended in 17th or better. He's consistent at WGI and I love that!
Alright, JMac won't set the world on fire in 2017! He won't go and contend for top 5 and top 10 finishes on a weekly basis. He will likely go winelss again in 2017 and he will likely not win you a fantasy league championship. What will he do? He will be consistent in the low to middle teens and you can count on him to deliver when a big-time name let you down. JMac isn't flashy, so he won't get the love that he deserve rarely ever. However, he will be very effective at places like Phoenix, Richmond, New Hampshire, Bristol and Martinsville. He will also be good on certain intermediate tracks, but more times than not it will be nothing beyond top 15 potential. Folks, going with the consistent boring-like fantasy option isn't popular. But you know what is popular though? Wanting to win your fantasy league. And I am willing to bet, if you use him correct then you could have a shot at winning. My best advice? When in doubt, trust in JMac!
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
JMac had a very good 2016 season, he just won't get the credit he deserves. JMac isn't in top equipment or has the most talent in the world, so what he has done the last couple seasons has been very respectable. This could be the final season at Chip Ganassi Racing for JMac. There is a good possibility of that. Especially if CGR contains Larson beyond 2017, then JMac could be looking for a new team. With that said, his performance in 2017 will be a big factor in that as well. Hard to say what his future will be honestly. JMac will be his strength at the shorter flat tracks and most likely the intermediate tracks. He will also have strong runs at the road courses and short tracks. He has a history of success at plate races. So there really isn't an specific type of track that he performs poorly at, but there are certain tracks that you would want to target him at more than others.
The intermediate tracks is the first type of track that I would like to look at, simply because it is the bread and butter of Nascar right now. You must run well at the intermediate tracks to be successful overall. JMac isn't a driver that goes out and run up inside the top 5, but he is consistent with his finishes. Most likely, you can expect finishes in the high single digit to middle teens. So from 9th-17th is the likely range I see him finishing on the intermediate tacks! I would say most weekends it is between 12th-17th though. His best intermediate tracks? Homestead, Michigan and Texas are his best tracks. I also would list places like Kentucky and Charlotte as well. His worst intermediate tracks are Kansas (finished outside the top 20 in 4 of the past 6 races) and Atlanta (has his career highest DNF rate among active tracks - not named Daytona or Talladega.)
Homestead is JMac's best intermediate track from career point of view and it's really not close honestly. Over the past 3 seasons at Homestead, he has compiled 7.7 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 87.4 driver rating. His performance numbers aren't quite on the same level as his finishes, but those are still very good numbers though. Over his past 6 races overall at Homestead, he has compiled 5 Top 20 finishes, with 4 of those finishes ending in 14th or better. Michigan and Texas are both good tracks for JMac. But I would go with Michigan or Texas right now. He has ran very well at Michigan of late. His teammate actually ran top 3 in both races last season, so it clear that CGR has Michigan figured out. Over the past 4 races at Michigan, JMac has compiled an 10.0 average finish with 3 Top 10 finishes. In fact, he has finished 16th or better in 6 straight races at Michigan now. On top of that, 5 of those 6 races has ended in 14th or better as well. Texas been good to JMac, just not as good as Homestead or Michigan though. Over the past 6 races at Texas, he has compiled 6 straight Top 19 finishes. Over just the past 5 races at Texas, he has compiled 4 finishes of 13th or better. When really thinking about it, his top 3 tracks can be arranged in any order. Texas is nearly as good place for him as Homestead and Michigan. Places like Charlotte, Kentucky and Las Vegas should also be considered.
Shorter flats should be considered as JMac's strength area, as he has found the most success over the years at them. He will likely knock out his best finishes at the tracks of Phoenix, Richmond and New Hampshire. He has ran well at all of them at some point or another. They are all very good tracks for him, but I say Richmond is the standout track of late though. He's great at Richmond and has the numbers to be ranked among the best. Over the past 7 races at Richmond, he has compiled 8.7 average finish with 9.9 average running position and 97.7 driver rating. In that 7-race span, he has compiled 4 finishes of 7th or better. Including three-4th place finishes. In that 7-race span, he has also collected 6 finishes of 13th or better. In short, Richmond could be his best racetrack over the past 3.5 seasons.
Phoenix and New Hampshire are also very good tracks for him, but I would say that Phoenix been the better place for him more recently. Over the past 6 races at Phoenix, he has compiled 6 straight Top 16 finishes. He has also posted 5 finishes of 15th or better in that span as well. 3 of those 5 races ended in 11th or better as well. Like with most of the tracks, we had looked at, he is very consistent inside the top 16. Same goes for New Hampshire, too. Over the past 8 races at New Hampshire, he has compiled 6 finishes of 16th or better. Including 3 of the past 5 in 14th or better. Simply put, JMac is super consistent inside the top 16 on the shorter-flat tracks!
The Larger flats will be a good place him, like most places he will have potential in the low to middle teens though. Pocono should be a good place to use him, its just isn't the first place people think about him though. Over the past 10 races at Pocono, he has finished inside the top 20 in every single race! He has also posted 5 finishes of 16th or better over the past 7 races at Pocono. 4 of the past 6 races at Pocono has ended inside the top 15 for JMac. Indy is the better track for him from a career point of view though. Indy ranked first among all tracks in terms of average finish. His numbers recently has been just okay though. He won the Brickyard back in 2010 and then finished 4th in 11th. Since? 5 straight races that all had ended in the 15th-22nd range. 3 of those 5 races ended in 19th-22nd as well. Not good numbers, but not terrible numbers either. He is consistent, but that's just about it. No real upside, I personally would use him at Pocono before Indy.
Short tracks will be another good place to use him and has found good amount of success at both tracks. I think Martinsville is the better track for him though. JMac just understands how to get around Martinsville well and considered one of his best tracks on the schedule. Over the past 8 races at Martinsville, he has compiled 6 finishes of 16th or better. Also, 5 of those 8 races has ended in 10th or better. More impressive? Over the past 4 races at Martinsville, he has finished 8th or better in 3 of 4 races. Why is that significant? He has collected 3 races with an driver rating above 92.0. In fact, 4 of the past 5 races, he has posted an driver rating above 92. At most tracks, his driver ratings are in the 70s and 80s as the normal. Martinsville isn't an normal track for him though.
Bristol will be another really good track for him overall. Over the past 5 races at Bristol, he has finished 14th or better in every race. If he didn't get involved in a wrecked at Bristol in April 2014, he would had 6 straight races of 14th or better. He was running well inside the top 10 when the wreck happened. Otherwise, he has posted 3 finishes of 11th or better in his past 5 races. With of course no finishes worse than 14th in that span. He's so damn good on these shorter tracks in general. Expect more of the same in 2017!
I would say that Road courses and Plate tracks are weaknesses for JMac. He has good history at both type of tracks, but he tend to get a lot of bad luck/bad finishes at them though. More so at the plate races though. He is overrated there, in my personal opinion. Does that mean he cannot get the finishes? Nope, he could but he will need to have some luck.
At Talladega, he has been okay. He been decent with 3 top 20 finishes over his past 4 races at Talladega overall. But that's really the best thing I can with him for the past 5 races. Outside of his win in 2013 that is. Since, 8 of the past 12 races ended in 19th or worse. On the plus side, he has finished 19th, 11th and 4th over 3 of the past 4 races. Long-term, he has had very little success at Talladega, but lately his luck been turning for the better. I like that! He has been okay at Daytona, just not nothing special in terms of final finish. Over the past 6 races at Daytona, he has compiled 3 top 17 finishes. While posting 3 finishes of 27th or worse as well. Even worse? He only has one finish inside the top 10 since July 2010. On top of that, he has only 6 Top 20 finishes over his past 13 races at Daytona! He has the talent to be up at the front as a drafter, but he doesn't seems to get it done at the end.
Road courses will be similar, he can run well on them but doesn't always get the finishes. For whatever reason last season, the CGR had terrible luck on the road courses. Wrecks and penalities can sum their year up at both Sonoma and WGI. JMac will look to have different outcome in 2017. I think he is better at Watkins Glenn overall. He seems to run well at Sonoma s well but just have bad luck too much. Like last season, where he got a penalty late in the event and never recovered. Overall, 5 of the past 7 Sonoma races has ended in 17th or better. 3 of those 4 races ended in 15th or better. I think he is better at Watkins Glenn lately than he been at Sonoma, mainly because he has gotten the finishes at Watkins Glenn. Also, Watkins Glenn is easier to get around and stuff. Over the past 4 races at WGI, he has compiled 3 finishes of 14th or better. Including finishes of 8th, 14th and 11th over the past 4 seasons there. Another thing to like about him at WGI? Only two bad races since the 2010 season. Every other race has ended in 17th or better. He's consistent at WGI and I love that!
Alright, JMac won't set the world on fire in 2017! He won't go and contend for top 5 and top 10 finishes on a weekly basis. He will likely go winelss again in 2017 and he will likely not win you a fantasy league championship. What will he do? He will be consistent in the low to middle teens and you can count on him to deliver when a big-time name let you down. JMac isn't flashy, so he won't get the love that he deserve rarely ever. However, he will be very effective at places like Phoenix, Richmond, New Hampshire, Bristol and Martinsville. He will also be good on certain intermediate tracks, but more times than not it will be nothing beyond top 15 potential. Folks, going with the consistent boring-like fantasy option isn't popular. But you know what is popular though? Wanting to win your fantasy league. And I am willing to bet, if you use him correct then you could have a shot at winning. My best advice? When in doubt, trust in JMac!
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
