Welcome to TimersSports
Dale Jr had a very short season in 2016, after concussions forced him to miss the entire 2nd half of the year. Where multiple drivers had to fill-in for him, including likes of Jeff Gordon and Alex Bowman. He's now look to put that behind him and focus on the 2017 season. What do I expect from him? Let's find out!
As usual, the intermediate and plate tracks are expected to be the primary strengths for him overall. People commonly think of him at the plate tracks and rightfully so, too. But he wasn't good at all on the plates (in terms of finishes) in 2016. In fact, he had finishes of 21st, 36th and 40th in the three plate races that he did in 2016. Not very Dale Jr-like at all, I would say. I will just chalk that up as a fluke though. He will be fine in 2017 and have a rebound year on the plate tracks. I am not going to dig into the details on him, you know what he is capable of at both Daytona and Talladega.
Intermediate tracks is a strength for him, no doubt. Hendrick Motorsports takes pride in their horsepower advantage over most of the field. Last year, they showed everyone they are capable of tuning it on in the chase. What are Dale Jr's intermediate best tracks? You could make a case for him at right about every track honestly. He will have top 10 potential at just about every track we visit. But three tracks I like the most are Michigan and Texas. Also love him at Atlanta as well. Let's start with Atlanta. This is his best track from a career point of view and best track over the past 2 seasons. He has 11.6 average finish (ranked first among all 23 tracks) and posted 2.5 average finish over past 2 seasons. His numbers recently are very good! Over the past 5 races at Atlanta, he has compiled 5 straight top 11 finishes. While 4 of those 5 races ended in 8th or better. Since joining HMS (2008) in 12 races, he has compiled 8 top 11 finishes. Dale loves Atlanta and it loves him right back!
Michigan is the next track, we will look at for Dale Jr. His first two wins came in 2008 and 2012 at Michigan. Not only his first two wins at Michigan, but his first two wins at HMS. Yes, you heard correctly. Overall, Michigan is a very good track for him honestly. Over his past 5 races, he has compiled 4 finishes of 10th or better. While posting 6 top 10 finishes over his past 9 races overall. With 5 of those 6 Top 10 finishes ending in 7th or better, too. This been a great track for him lately and should expect more of the same in 2017. Texas is the last track, I want to look at for Dale Jr.
Texas could be considered as Dale Jr's best intermediate track when looking at the numbers! Over the past 11 races overall, he has compiled 9 Top 10 finishes. The past 4 races at Texas has ended in 6th or better. Including 2 top 3 finishes over the past two Spring races at Texas. Over the past 6 races, he has finished 3rd or better in 3 of the past 6 races as well. To further make my point, he has finished 7th or better in 6 of the past 8 races at Texas. He's been on it here!
The Larger flats are also a very spot for him and should continue in 2017 as well. You could make the case that Pocono is Dale's best track on the schedule. As over the past 11 races at Pocono, he has compiled 10 Top 11 finishes. That's good, but the numbers get better as we dig into them though. Over the past 7 races, he has compiled 6 Top 5 finishes with 2 of them ending in wins. Just insane! Indy hasn't been quite so kind to him though. Still good lately though. Over the past 4 races at Indy, he has compiled 3 Top 9 finishes. He finished 22nd in 2015, his most recent race. He had a tough race in 2015, so I will let him slide though. However, from 2012 to 2014, he finished 4th-9th. With finishes of 9th, 6th and 4th. Don't be fooled, he been good at Indy recently, just not good from a career stand point.
The shorter flats will be good places to use him, just not super great though. I think Phoenix is his best track by far and that is the only one I would call great recently. He's been a man on a mission at Phoenix (not named Kevin Harvick that is) lately. Over the past 7 races, he has compiled 6 Top 8 finishes. While compiling 5 Top 5 finishes in that span, too. Including finishes of 5th and 1st in his past two races at Phoenix. Another thing to note is that Alex Bowman started on the pole this past fall and was running inside the top 3 very late. Until he got involved in a wreck. Also, he had stupid long run speed. He was the fastest guy on the track for most of that final long-run in the fall. That's says a lot about how the 88 team setting up their cars at Phoenix.
Richmond is his second-best shorter flat track, in my opinion. Nothing like Phoenix, but he's get his fantasy value by being consistent though. Over the past 9 races at Richmond, he has compiled 9 finishes of 14th or better. He has finished 12th or better in 3 of his past 5 races as well. I would say that his likely finish is in the 10th-15th range at Richmond though. Over that 9-race span (I just mentioned), he has finished between 10th-14th in 6 races. New Hampshire isn't very far behind, in my opinion. Over the past 8 races at New Hampshire, he has compiled 7 finishes of 14th or better. Including 3 of the past 4 races ending in 9th or better. Another note about him at New Hampshire is that he has posted 5 races with driver rating above 97.0.
Short tracks will be good for Dale Jr and you should expect him to keep up the good work in 2017 as well. Over the past 14 races at Bristol, he has compiled 12 finishes of 16th or better. Overall, 9 of 14 races has came between 9th-16th. That's seems to be his likely range. With that said, he had finishes of 9th and 2nd in his two most recent races at Bristol. While 5 of his past 8 races has ended in 12th or better. Dale Jr is making obvious gains at Bristol lately. Martinsville is his better track though. Over his past 12 races, he has compiled 8 finishes of 8th or better. Also, 3 of his past 4 races has ended in 4th or better. Overall, 4 of his past 6 races ended in 8th or better. Short tracks will be a very good place for him, make no mistake about that.
Road courses use to be a major weakness for Dale Jr and the 88 team, but he has turned it around lately. And I don't think it is a fluke, either. His performances over the past three seasons at Sonoma just seems way too good for that. Over the past three seasons, he has compiled 3 straight finishes of 11th or better. Also, he has posted a driver rating above 103 in each race. That's really good for him! Looking deeper into the data pool, he has compiled 5 Top 12 finishes over his past 7 races overall. Not quite as good at Watkins Glenn, but still respectable.Watkins Glenn been a good place for him over the past couple seasons, just not anything that's a standout though. Over the past two races, he has compiled finishes of 11th in both races. Also, he topped a driver rating in both. So that means, he has posted a driver rating over 100 in his past 5 road courses. Pretty good for a guy that everyone considered a weak road course racer!
I am not expecting Dale Jr to go out and suddenly pick up where he left off in 2014 and 2015, because he haven't been on the track in the while. With that said, I would be disappointed and surprised if he doesn't go to victory lane in 2017 though. He missed out last year because of injury/lack of performance. His concussion was obviously a big factor in him not winning, but even before that he wasn't really running great. With that said, I think he can get back on track in 2017. His best fantasy asset will be him being consistent. No easy way to put it, other than he needs the consistent to be a legit fantasy option. His best 5 tracks are (in my opinion): Daytona, Pocono, Phoenix, Texas and Michigan. You would make a case for several other tracks as well. Dale will likely run well just about everywhere and on every type of track. We just need to pinpoint and get the most value we can out of him.
*All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Dale Jr had a very short season in 2016, after concussions forced him to miss the entire 2nd half of the year. Where multiple drivers had to fill-in for him, including likes of Jeff Gordon and Alex Bowman. He's now look to put that behind him and focus on the 2017 season. What do I expect from him? Let's find out!
As usual, the intermediate and plate tracks are expected to be the primary strengths for him overall. People commonly think of him at the plate tracks and rightfully so, too. But he wasn't good at all on the plates (in terms of finishes) in 2016. In fact, he had finishes of 21st, 36th and 40th in the three plate races that he did in 2016. Not very Dale Jr-like at all, I would say. I will just chalk that up as a fluke though. He will be fine in 2017 and have a rebound year on the plate tracks. I am not going to dig into the details on him, you know what he is capable of at both Daytona and Talladega.
Intermediate tracks is a strength for him, no doubt. Hendrick Motorsports takes pride in their horsepower advantage over most of the field. Last year, they showed everyone they are capable of tuning it on in the chase. What are Dale Jr's intermediate best tracks? You could make a case for him at right about every track honestly. He will have top 10 potential at just about every track we visit. But three tracks I like the most are Michigan and Texas. Also love him at Atlanta as well. Let's start with Atlanta. This is his best track from a career point of view and best track over the past 2 seasons. He has 11.6 average finish (ranked first among all 23 tracks) and posted 2.5 average finish over past 2 seasons. His numbers recently are very good! Over the past 5 races at Atlanta, he has compiled 5 straight top 11 finishes. While 4 of those 5 races ended in 8th or better. Since joining HMS (2008) in 12 races, he has compiled 8 top 11 finishes. Dale loves Atlanta and it loves him right back!
Michigan is the next track, we will look at for Dale Jr. His first two wins came in 2008 and 2012 at Michigan. Not only his first two wins at Michigan, but his first two wins at HMS. Yes, you heard correctly. Overall, Michigan is a very good track for him honestly. Over his past 5 races, he has compiled 4 finishes of 10th or better. While posting 6 top 10 finishes over his past 9 races overall. With 5 of those 6 Top 10 finishes ending in 7th or better, too. This been a great track for him lately and should expect more of the same in 2017. Texas is the last track, I want to look at for Dale Jr.
Texas could be considered as Dale Jr's best intermediate track when looking at the numbers! Over the past 11 races overall, he has compiled 9 Top 10 finishes. The past 4 races at Texas has ended in 6th or better. Including 2 top 3 finishes over the past two Spring races at Texas. Over the past 6 races, he has finished 3rd or better in 3 of the past 6 races as well. To further make my point, he has finished 7th or better in 6 of the past 8 races at Texas. He's been on it here!
The Larger flats are also a very spot for him and should continue in 2017 as well. You could make the case that Pocono is Dale's best track on the schedule. As over the past 11 races at Pocono, he has compiled 10 Top 11 finishes. That's good, but the numbers get better as we dig into them though. Over the past 7 races, he has compiled 6 Top 5 finishes with 2 of them ending in wins. Just insane! Indy hasn't been quite so kind to him though. Still good lately though. Over the past 4 races at Indy, he has compiled 3 Top 9 finishes. He finished 22nd in 2015, his most recent race. He had a tough race in 2015, so I will let him slide though. However, from 2012 to 2014, he finished 4th-9th. With finishes of 9th, 6th and 4th. Don't be fooled, he been good at Indy recently, just not good from a career stand point.
The shorter flats will be good places to use him, just not super great though. I think Phoenix is his best track by far and that is the only one I would call great recently. He's been a man on a mission at Phoenix (not named Kevin Harvick that is) lately. Over the past 7 races, he has compiled 6 Top 8 finishes. While compiling 5 Top 5 finishes in that span, too. Including finishes of 5th and 1st in his past two races at Phoenix. Another thing to note is that Alex Bowman started on the pole this past fall and was running inside the top 3 very late. Until he got involved in a wreck. Also, he had stupid long run speed. He was the fastest guy on the track for most of that final long-run in the fall. That's says a lot about how the 88 team setting up their cars at Phoenix.
Richmond is his second-best shorter flat track, in my opinion. Nothing like Phoenix, but he's get his fantasy value by being consistent though. Over the past 9 races at Richmond, he has compiled 9 finishes of 14th or better. He has finished 12th or better in 3 of his past 5 races as well. I would say that his likely finish is in the 10th-15th range at Richmond though. Over that 9-race span (I just mentioned), he has finished between 10th-14th in 6 races. New Hampshire isn't very far behind, in my opinion. Over the past 8 races at New Hampshire, he has compiled 7 finishes of 14th or better. Including 3 of the past 4 races ending in 9th or better. Another note about him at New Hampshire is that he has posted 5 races with driver rating above 97.0.
Short tracks will be good for Dale Jr and you should expect him to keep up the good work in 2017 as well. Over the past 14 races at Bristol, he has compiled 12 finishes of 16th or better. Overall, 9 of 14 races has came between 9th-16th. That's seems to be his likely range. With that said, he had finishes of 9th and 2nd in his two most recent races at Bristol. While 5 of his past 8 races has ended in 12th or better. Dale Jr is making obvious gains at Bristol lately. Martinsville is his better track though. Over his past 12 races, he has compiled 8 finishes of 8th or better. Also, 3 of his past 4 races has ended in 4th or better. Overall, 4 of his past 6 races ended in 8th or better. Short tracks will be a very good place for him, make no mistake about that.
Road courses use to be a major weakness for Dale Jr and the 88 team, but he has turned it around lately. And I don't think it is a fluke, either. His performances over the past three seasons at Sonoma just seems way too good for that. Over the past three seasons, he has compiled 3 straight finishes of 11th or better. Also, he has posted a driver rating above 103 in each race. That's really good for him! Looking deeper into the data pool, he has compiled 5 Top 12 finishes over his past 7 races overall. Not quite as good at Watkins Glenn, but still respectable.Watkins Glenn been a good place for him over the past couple seasons, just not anything that's a standout though. Over the past two races, he has compiled finishes of 11th in both races. Also, he topped a driver rating in both. So that means, he has posted a driver rating over 100 in his past 5 road courses. Pretty good for a guy that everyone considered a weak road course racer!
I am not expecting Dale Jr to go out and suddenly pick up where he left off in 2014 and 2015, because he haven't been on the track in the while. With that said, I would be disappointed and surprised if he doesn't go to victory lane in 2017 though. He missed out last year because of injury/lack of performance. His concussion was obviously a big factor in him not winning, but even before that he wasn't really running great. With that said, I think he can get back on track in 2017. His best fantasy asset will be him being consistent. No easy way to put it, other than he needs the consistent to be a legit fantasy option. His best 5 tracks are (in my opinion): Daytona, Pocono, Phoenix, Texas and Michigan. You would make a case for several other tracks as well. Dale will likely run well just about everywhere and on every type of track. We just need to pinpoint and get the most value we can out of him.
*All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
