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Matt Kenseth is coming off a up and down 2016 season, a season where he could had won the championship. The key words are ''could had''. If we didn't see a late caution at Phoneix, he likely win that race and advances to the next round at Homestead. Caution came out late and everything goes downhill for him. Much like his season, bad luck at end of the race costs him. That's so Matt Kenseth at JGR. Every time something good could happen to him, bad luck strikes. Onto 2017, what can we expect? I think, we can expect Kenseth to keep producing really good numbers like he has in recent seasons.
The intermediate tracks will be a very strong spot for Matt Kenseth in 2017. Much like his JGR teammates, Kenseth should be a top driver in 2017 on this type of track. It is a type of track that the Toyotas has dominated over the past couple season. Along with Hendrick Motorsports, of course. Hard to say what are his top 3 intermediate tracks, but I say Texas, Kentucky and Atlanta. You could make a good case for any track honestly. He's pretty good everywhere. Just comes down to your personal preference though. His best track to me is Texas. This is place is a great track for him, not many tracks does he have more success. In 28 career starts, he has 9.4 average finish with 3 wins and 18 Top 10 finishes. Also, among the 1.5 mile tracks, he has led the most laps at Texas. Those are positive things to like about him, and they better as you dig deeper too. Over the past 12 races at Texas, he has compiled 10 Top 12 finishes. Yes, it's a pretty large simple size and is hard to get specific data. I agree, so let's look at more recent data. Over the past 6 races, he has compiled 4 Top 11 finishes. Including 3 Top 7 finishes in those 4 Top 11 finishes overall. Not bad at all. Could be better, but I won't complain with those numbers at Texas.
Kentucky is a track that has limited Cup data, but statistically it is one of Matt's best tracks on the schedule. In 6 career starts at Kentucky, he has never finished worse than 8th. Over his past 4 races at the track, he has compiled 3 Top 5 finishes. He finished in 8th in last season's race, but he was far better than that though. In that event, he's compiled 4.0 average running position with 113.8 driver rating. That ranked as the 3rd-best ARP and 4th-best driver rating. Realistically, he should had finished inside the top 5 again for the 4 straight time with JGR. Alanta is another great track for him. Over the past 2 seasons (minus last season's race), he has finished 5th and 2nd. In last season's event, he probably had the car to beat. He led a lot of laps early on and was looking really good. However, around the halfway point, he got a bullshit penalty. Long story-short, Matt Kenseth goes multiple laps down and finishes 19th. Prior to that, he may had the car to beat. Kenseth been awesome at Atlanta the past couple seasons.
Matt Kenseth will be very strong on the shorter flats in 2017, it is a very good type of track. Of course, he had some piss poor luck in 2016 at them. In fact, he had terrible finishes at both Richmond and Phoenix. Two races, where he probably should have won or had a great shot. Let's start the start, he didn't have any problems last season, New Hampshire! Kenseth just been stupid awesome at New Hampshire lately. Over his past 7 races there, he has compiled 5 Top 4 finishes. That's crazy good and his past three races has resulted in: 2nd, 2nd and 1st. Over this 7-hot streak, he has compiled 3 wins and another runner up finish. Reminds me a lot of Kyle Busch's hot streak at New Hampshire, in fact that streak was just before this one. Joe Gibbs Racing just been dominant lately at this track.
Richmond is another really good track for Kenseth. He's good here, no doubt. He been a machine at Richmond lately. Over his past 9 races there, he has compiled 7 top 7 finishes. While 3 of his past 4 races ended in 7th or 1st. In last season's event, he's finished 38th. Not good, but he finished over 70 laps down. While still posting nearly 100 driver rating. He had a top 5 for that event, before ending in the garage. I would say that Phoenix is his overall weakest type track. Over his past 7 races at PIR, he has compiled just 3 Top 7 finishes. It's not quite as bad as its look though. If you take out last fall's bad (21st) finish, his numbers are very good. Over his past 6 races, he has compiled 4 Top 12 finishes overall. Not bad numbers at Phoenix, just not as good as Richmond or New Hampshire.
The larger flats in recent seasons been very good to Matt Kenseth, he has even ran well at Pocono. A place that use to be considered one of his worst tracks. His latest breakout at Pocono, almost came out of nowhere. Because from August 2012 to August 2014, he had no finishes better than 22nd. That was 5-race span. Over his past 4 races (June 2015 to August 2016), he has compiled 3 Top 7 finishes. He won back in August 2015. However, that was the infamous ''fuel mileage'' race. Everyone in front of Kenseth ran out of fuel, except him. He was pretty good that day overall though. Posted nearly 120 driver rating, which says he's about a top 5 driver. I still say he isn't a top driver at Pocono though. He has some work to do, before we can trust him at Pocono.
Indy is his much better larger flat track overall. Kenseth hasn't had a bad race at Indy with JGR, yet. In 4 starts with JGR, he has compiled 4 straight Top 7 finishes. Meaning, he hasn't finished worse than 7th place. In fact, 3 of the past 4 races ended in 5th or better. Kenseth finished a career-high 2nd place in last season's race at Indy. With that said, it was the 3rd time in his career that he has accomplished that feat. So close, so many times. Maybe he will mark it off his list over the next couple seasons? Guess, we will find out soon.
The short tracks been great tracks for Kenseth since joining JGR and that should continue in 2017 as well. When you are looking at his numbers over the past couple season from afar, they look terrible. When folks, that's the thing! You cannot just judge a book by it cover. Bristol ranked as his worst track over the past two seasons, in terms of average finish. In reality, Bristol is one of Kenseth's best tracks overall. Over the past 7 races at Bristol, he has compiled 3 top 3 finishes and 4 top 13 finishes overall. That's good, but why such a poor average finish lately? That has a lot to do with 3 straight finishes of 36th or worse. He got involved in a wreck last summer at Bristol. He pancaked the wall in the spring race in 2016. And had an engine let go in 2015 summer race. Not good, but he been very competitive since joining JGR at Bristol. In fact, this has always been a great track for him.
Martinsville is a underrated track for him. People are still thinking that Matt is a terrible driver there, and that was true at one time. Yeah, he wasn't super good back in his Roush days. However, JGR is a far better short track program though. Over his past 6 races (excluding Martinsville fall 2015 - infamous Kenseth/Logano wreck), he has compiled 5 Top 6 finishes over that 6 race span. He was awesome in last season's races. Finished 15th and 4th, but was much better than that. He led 176 laps in the fall race and led another 45 laps in the spring race. Also posted an average driver rating over 120.0 for the two races combined.
Plate tracks will always be a place that Matt Kenseth will have a shot at, but honestly he is in a sense a little overrated. Sure, he is a great plate racer. He's kind like Jamie Mac. Really good at using the draft and running well, but has shit luck for finishes though. Over the past couple seasons, he has been terrible for plate race finishes. Let's start at Daytona! Over the past 8 races at Daytona, he has finished 20th or worse in 6 races. While 4 of the past 5 races at Daytona has ended in 20th or worse. 3 of those 4 finishes has ended in 23rd or worse. Not good numbers at all.
At Talladega, he been even worse in terms of finishes with JGR. Over the past 6 races at Talladega, he has finished 23rd or worse in 5 of past 6 races. Kenseth actually have led in 3 straight races at Talladega, yet have finishes of 28th, 23rd and 26th to show for. Another thing about Kenseth? He has qualified 8th or better in his past 4 races at Talladega. However, his highest finish is 23rd. Plate races just haven't been good to him for whatever reason at JGR!
Road courses are the final type of track, that we will look at for Matt! Road courses are somewhat of a underrated type of track for him. People say it is a major weakness for him, but I don't know if you can say that is true though. Sonoma? Okay sure. His last top 10 finish was back in 2008. His past 4 finishes ended in 20th, 21st, 42nd and 19th. Not good at all. How about Watkins Glenn? He been onto something there for sure. Over his past 5 races there, he has compiled 4 Top 10 finishes. While 9 of his past 10 races at Watkins Glenn ended in 14th or better. Hard to say that this is a poor track for him. In fact, it been one of his better tracks for awhile now.
Matt Kenseth is coming off a so and so season in 2016. He didn't have a bad year by any means, but it could have been better though. In 2017, you can expect for him to keep up his usual numbers. Probably 2 or 3 wins with double digit top 5 finishes. That's the normal, we have come to expect from him at JGR. He will have his good days and then there will be those bad days as well. His good days will likely be on the intermediate tracks, shorter flats, Indy and WGI. The plates, short tracks (Martinsville and Bristol) and Sonoma will likely be weak areas for him. I think the short tracks will be where you can use him, but there extra risk. He just has such poor luck ,it seems he finds trouble. If you are in a big hole early, then I might consider rolling the dice with him. Overall, I would expect another solid year from him.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Matt Kenseth is coming off a up and down 2016 season, a season where he could had won the championship. The key words are ''could had''. If we didn't see a late caution at Phoneix, he likely win that race and advances to the next round at Homestead. Caution came out late and everything goes downhill for him. Much like his season, bad luck at end of the race costs him. That's so Matt Kenseth at JGR. Every time something good could happen to him, bad luck strikes. Onto 2017, what can we expect? I think, we can expect Kenseth to keep producing really good numbers like he has in recent seasons.
The intermediate tracks will be a very strong spot for Matt Kenseth in 2017. Much like his JGR teammates, Kenseth should be a top driver in 2017 on this type of track. It is a type of track that the Toyotas has dominated over the past couple season. Along with Hendrick Motorsports, of course. Hard to say what are his top 3 intermediate tracks, but I say Texas, Kentucky and Atlanta. You could make a good case for any track honestly. He's pretty good everywhere. Just comes down to your personal preference though. His best track to me is Texas. This is place is a great track for him, not many tracks does he have more success. In 28 career starts, he has 9.4 average finish with 3 wins and 18 Top 10 finishes. Also, among the 1.5 mile tracks, he has led the most laps at Texas. Those are positive things to like about him, and they better as you dig deeper too. Over the past 12 races at Texas, he has compiled 10 Top 12 finishes. Yes, it's a pretty large simple size and is hard to get specific data. I agree, so let's look at more recent data. Over the past 6 races, he has compiled 4 Top 11 finishes. Including 3 Top 7 finishes in those 4 Top 11 finishes overall. Not bad at all. Could be better, but I won't complain with those numbers at Texas.
Kentucky is a track that has limited Cup data, but statistically it is one of Matt's best tracks on the schedule. In 6 career starts at Kentucky, he has never finished worse than 8th. Over his past 4 races at the track, he has compiled 3 Top 5 finishes. He finished in 8th in last season's race, but he was far better than that though. In that event, he's compiled 4.0 average running position with 113.8 driver rating. That ranked as the 3rd-best ARP and 4th-best driver rating. Realistically, he should had finished inside the top 5 again for the 4 straight time with JGR. Alanta is another great track for him. Over the past 2 seasons (minus last season's race), he has finished 5th and 2nd. In last season's event, he probably had the car to beat. He led a lot of laps early on and was looking really good. However, around the halfway point, he got a bullshit penalty. Long story-short, Matt Kenseth goes multiple laps down and finishes 19th. Prior to that, he may had the car to beat. Kenseth been awesome at Atlanta the past couple seasons.
Matt Kenseth will be very strong on the shorter flats in 2017, it is a very good type of track. Of course, he had some piss poor luck in 2016 at them. In fact, he had terrible finishes at both Richmond and Phoenix. Two races, where he probably should have won or had a great shot. Let's start the start, he didn't have any problems last season, New Hampshire! Kenseth just been stupid awesome at New Hampshire lately. Over his past 7 races there, he has compiled 5 Top 4 finishes. That's crazy good and his past three races has resulted in: 2nd, 2nd and 1st. Over this 7-hot streak, he has compiled 3 wins and another runner up finish. Reminds me a lot of Kyle Busch's hot streak at New Hampshire, in fact that streak was just before this one. Joe Gibbs Racing just been dominant lately at this track.
Richmond is another really good track for Kenseth. He's good here, no doubt. He been a machine at Richmond lately. Over his past 9 races there, he has compiled 7 top 7 finishes. While 3 of his past 4 races ended in 7th or 1st. In last season's event, he's finished 38th. Not good, but he finished over 70 laps down. While still posting nearly 100 driver rating. He had a top 5 for that event, before ending in the garage. I would say that Phoenix is his overall weakest type track. Over his past 7 races at PIR, he has compiled just 3 Top 7 finishes. It's not quite as bad as its look though. If you take out last fall's bad (21st) finish, his numbers are very good. Over his past 6 races, he has compiled 4 Top 12 finishes overall. Not bad numbers at Phoenix, just not as good as Richmond or New Hampshire.
The larger flats in recent seasons been very good to Matt Kenseth, he has even ran well at Pocono. A place that use to be considered one of his worst tracks. His latest breakout at Pocono, almost came out of nowhere. Because from August 2012 to August 2014, he had no finishes better than 22nd. That was 5-race span. Over his past 4 races (June 2015 to August 2016), he has compiled 3 Top 7 finishes. He won back in August 2015. However, that was the infamous ''fuel mileage'' race. Everyone in front of Kenseth ran out of fuel, except him. He was pretty good that day overall though. Posted nearly 120 driver rating, which says he's about a top 5 driver. I still say he isn't a top driver at Pocono though. He has some work to do, before we can trust him at Pocono.
Indy is his much better larger flat track overall. Kenseth hasn't had a bad race at Indy with JGR, yet. In 4 starts with JGR, he has compiled 4 straight Top 7 finishes. Meaning, he hasn't finished worse than 7th place. In fact, 3 of the past 4 races ended in 5th or better. Kenseth finished a career-high 2nd place in last season's race at Indy. With that said, it was the 3rd time in his career that he has accomplished that feat. So close, so many times. Maybe he will mark it off his list over the next couple seasons? Guess, we will find out soon.
The short tracks been great tracks for Kenseth since joining JGR and that should continue in 2017 as well. When you are looking at his numbers over the past couple season from afar, they look terrible. When folks, that's the thing! You cannot just judge a book by it cover. Bristol ranked as his worst track over the past two seasons, in terms of average finish. In reality, Bristol is one of Kenseth's best tracks overall. Over the past 7 races at Bristol, he has compiled 3 top 3 finishes and 4 top 13 finishes overall. That's good, but why such a poor average finish lately? That has a lot to do with 3 straight finishes of 36th or worse. He got involved in a wreck last summer at Bristol. He pancaked the wall in the spring race in 2016. And had an engine let go in 2015 summer race. Not good, but he been very competitive since joining JGR at Bristol. In fact, this has always been a great track for him.
Martinsville is a underrated track for him. People are still thinking that Matt is a terrible driver there, and that was true at one time. Yeah, he wasn't super good back in his Roush days. However, JGR is a far better short track program though. Over his past 6 races (excluding Martinsville fall 2015 - infamous Kenseth/Logano wreck), he has compiled 5 Top 6 finishes over that 6 race span. He was awesome in last season's races. Finished 15th and 4th, but was much better than that. He led 176 laps in the fall race and led another 45 laps in the spring race. Also posted an average driver rating over 120.0 for the two races combined.
Plate tracks will always be a place that Matt Kenseth will have a shot at, but honestly he is in a sense a little overrated. Sure, he is a great plate racer. He's kind like Jamie Mac. Really good at using the draft and running well, but has shit luck for finishes though. Over the past couple seasons, he has been terrible for plate race finishes. Let's start at Daytona! Over the past 8 races at Daytona, he has finished 20th or worse in 6 races. While 4 of the past 5 races at Daytona has ended in 20th or worse. 3 of those 4 finishes has ended in 23rd or worse. Not good numbers at all.
At Talladega, he been even worse in terms of finishes with JGR. Over the past 6 races at Talladega, he has finished 23rd or worse in 5 of past 6 races. Kenseth actually have led in 3 straight races at Talladega, yet have finishes of 28th, 23rd and 26th to show for. Another thing about Kenseth? He has qualified 8th or better in his past 4 races at Talladega. However, his highest finish is 23rd. Plate races just haven't been good to him for whatever reason at JGR!
Road courses are the final type of track, that we will look at for Matt! Road courses are somewhat of a underrated type of track for him. People say it is a major weakness for him, but I don't know if you can say that is true though. Sonoma? Okay sure. His last top 10 finish was back in 2008. His past 4 finishes ended in 20th, 21st, 42nd and 19th. Not good at all. How about Watkins Glenn? He been onto something there for sure. Over his past 5 races there, he has compiled 4 Top 10 finishes. While 9 of his past 10 races at Watkins Glenn ended in 14th or better. Hard to say that this is a poor track for him. In fact, it been one of his better tracks for awhile now.
Matt Kenseth is coming off a so and so season in 2016. He didn't have a bad year by any means, but it could have been better though. In 2017, you can expect for him to keep up his usual numbers. Probably 2 or 3 wins with double digit top 5 finishes. That's the normal, we have come to expect from him at JGR. He will have his good days and then there will be those bad days as well. His good days will likely be on the intermediate tracks, shorter flats, Indy and WGI. The plates, short tracks (Martinsville and Bristol) and Sonoma will likely be weak areas for him. I think the short tracks will be where you can use him, but there extra risk. He just has such poor luck ,it seems he finds trouble. If you are in a big hole early, then I might consider rolling the dice with him. Overall, I would expect another solid year from him.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
