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I was pretty tough on Kurt Busch in 2016 and I didn't hide it either, almost every week I would find something to put him down. Was I just simply hating on him? Hell no! I was just very disappointed with his lack of speed on a weekly basis. I know, he could run better than he did last year. He's capable of it, I had high standards for him heading into 2016. He just didn't live up to what I was expecting. Even though, he had a solid season overall. Just not the season, I was expecting though.
I think the biggest question will be can SHR keep the ball rolling with the switch to Ford? I think so. At one time, switching to a new brand would be a disadvantage for a driver. But now? Not so much of an issue. SHR probably been preparing the cars for months now. Also, I am sure the guys over at Ford has plenty of input for him. I could be wrong, but I doubt they miss much from 2016. If anything, the SHR drivers will just have slow starts.
Intermediate tracks will be a strength for Kurt Busch in 2017, much like it will be for most top drivers in the sport. I think the intermediate tracks will a good place for him overall. You can use him anywhere and probably have a good shot at a top 10 finish. However, the three tracks that stand out are Kentucky, Chicago and Cali. I think these tracks are the places where it is most likely for him to get quality finishes. Like, I said you could use him anywhere and have a good shot at top 10 finishes. I consider Cali as his best track though. He has been amazing here and I love employing him at Cali. It's big, fast and he loves it! He finished 30th in last season's race, but his record there is impressive overall though. Over the past 4 races (before last season's bad finish), he has finished 9th or better in 4 straight races. Including 3 finishes of 5th or better in a row, before finishing 30th in 2016.
Kentucky and Chicago are also very good tracks. They are both ranked inside the top 8 among the 23 tracks on the schedule, from a career point of view. He has only made 6 starts at Kentucky, had made the most out of those 6 starts. In 6 starts, he has posted 5 finishes of 12th or better. The one non-top 12 start was back in 2012. Also, the only race where he wasn't in a quality ride. He drove the 51 car in 2012 for Phoenix Racing, later to be known as HScott Motorsports. Over his past 4 races at Kentucky, Kurt has compiled 4 straight finishes of 12th or better. Chicago is also a very good track for him. In 16 career starts, he has compiled 9 Top 10 finishes and 11 Top 20 finishes. Overall, 5 of hte past 6 races has ended in 13th or better. Lone bad finish? 2012 again with Phoenix racing. Over the past 4 races, he has compiled 4 top 13 finishes with 3 Top 8 finishes in that span as well. The intermediate tracks will definitely be a strong suit for him, most weekends expect top 10 potential and top 5 upside from him at certain tracks.
The shorter flats tracks will be a strength for Kurt Busch in 2017. He's runs well on the shorter flats of Richmond, Phoenix and New Hampshire. All good places to unload him! Phoenix has been the kindest to him lately. Over the past 7 races at Phoenix, he's finished 7th or better in 6 of 7 races. Yes, that's correct. 6 Top 7 finishes over the past 7 races for Kurt Busch at Phoenix. On top of an stellar record, he also is teammates with the Phoenix master. A good combo to have at this place, I think!
Richmond also been a kind track to Kurt Busch recently. His numbers aren't quite as good here as Phoenix, but still they stand out to me though. Over the past 8 races at Richmond, he has compiled 7 Top 15 finishes. While, 6 of the past 8 races has ended in 9th or better. Including an win and 2nd place win in that 8-race span. He's pretty good here! New Hampshire also been good to him, more so from a career point of view though. He's ranked 9th of 22 track from a career point of view at New Hampshire. While ranking 18th of 23 tracks over the past 2 seasons. Even though, he has a respectable 14.0 average finish over his past 4 races (2 seasons) there. Overall, 5 of the past 7 races has ended in 19th or better. That's good. The bad? Only 3 Top 15 finishes over his past 11 races. He was a machine from 2008 to 2011. Top 10 finishes in every start, during that span. He was still with Penske Racing, too. Lately, he has been just good enough. Not sure, if that will cut it though.
The larger flats will be good places for him in 2017, as it been in recent years. People might overlook Pocono because he only has an 13.2 average finish, that's only good enough for his 17th-best track over the last two seasons. Don't be fooled though, he has an 37th place finish there in that span. Overall, 10 of the past 14 races has ended inside the top 10. In fact, he has posted 4 Top 5 finishes over the past 7 races. Most interesting stat of all? He's a damn stud in the June races! He has posted 6 straight finishes of 7th or better in June's Pocono races. So, we have to go back to 2009 to find a bad race. With 4 of the past 5 June races ending in 5th or better. That's insane! I have always considered Pocono as one of Kurt's best tracks. Ranked as his 5th-best track (in terms of average finish) for his career.
Indy is one those tracks that I try to avoid Kurt Busch at for the most part. He usually get nothing beyond low to middle teens. There's nothing wrong with that, but he doesn't have that top 10 upside we always looking for from him. Over the past 3 of 4 races, he has finished 16th or better though. Overall, he has posted 4 Top 16 finishes over his past 8 races. That's just not cutting it at a track, we only visit once per year. Kurt need to step it up at Indy, before he has any real fantasy value in my eyes.
Road courses will be a very good place to use him at, but Sonoma is his better track. Even though, Watkins Glenn is damn good too! At Sonoma, he has been on it lately. In his first 10 starts at the start, he had just 4 top 20 finishes. Over his past 6 starts at Sonoma? 6 straight Top 12 finishes. While 4 of those 6 races has ended in 4th or better. His numbers at Watkins aren't too bad either. In fact, I think he is very underrated at WGI. People give him a lot of love at Sonoma because how well he has ran well there the past 6 seasons. But in reality, he has ran well at Watkins even longer. How long? How about 8 top 11 finishes over his past 10 races. While posting 10 Top 12 finishes over his past 14 races. That's insanely good! Also, he has posted 4 straight finishes of 12th or better. With 2 Top 5 finishes over the past 3 seasons. Show some Kurt some love at the road courses, folks!
I view Kurt as the most underrated plate racer in the series, he has never won at either track. However, I think he is the greatest active driver to never win a plate race in the Cup series. His number lately been off of the charts too. He's been very good at Talladega when looking at the numbers. Ranked 10th-best (of 23 tracks) in terms of career average finish. Over the past 5 races at Talladega, he has compiled 5 straight finishes of 12th or better. Like that? Well, he also has 4 Top 10 finishes in that span, including 3 straight top 10 finishes entering 2017. Daytona been pretty good to him as well. Over the past 6 races at Daytona, he has compiled 4 Top 10 finishes. While, 3 of the past 4 races has ended inside the top 10. There's a lot of good things to like about Kurt at Daytona and Talladega. Just a note, he would had 4 straight Top 10 finishes at Daytona. If he wasn't wrecked on the final lap at Daytona last July.
Short tracks (Martinsville and Bristol) will be his biggest weakness, I think. It has been a type of track that he's struggled at recently. He has ran well at Bristol lately, but the results just haven't been there for him though. Over the past 9 races at Bristol, he has compiled 5 finishes of 15th or better. While 3 of those 5 races ended in 5th or better. That's great, right? Definitely. Problem is? He's also finished 28th or worse in 4 races as well. He's sound like a high-risk/high-reward type of pick. Martinsville been much worse for him than Bristol. Martinsville ranked as his worst track (in terms of average finish) over the past two seasons. I am not going to go into deep details, but I will leave you with one important stat: Over the past 22 races at Martinsville, Kurt Busch has compiled 1 Top 10 finish. Yes, 1 top 10 finishes over his past 22 races. And that was his win back in 2014 with the #41 team. I am not even going to say anymore. That's all you really need to know about Kurt. At best, he will deliver a top 15 finish. That's isn't cutting it for me.
In 2017, I expect Kurt Busch to do what he always had. And that's just run well week in and week out. I highly doubt, if we see him go to victory lane more than once or twice hoenstly. But I do expect to see him as a top 10 contender on a weekly basis. I think it is important to use him on the road courses, shorter flats and certain intermediate tracks. Those are the places, where he is likely to have the most fantasy value. I think Kurt's best tracks are: Sonoma, Phoenix, Cali, Watkins Glenn and Pocono. I also think you can throw in the plate tracks and Richmond into the mix as well. I expect Kurt to make the chase once again this season, but he will likely do it off of consistency. Kurt's biggest asset the past two seasons has been about getting the quality finishes. More often than not, he haven't truly contended for the wins. Even though, I would say there been several races where he had top 5 potential. Point being, Kurt's value is based off of pure upside. Unless the 41 team improves significantly, I fully expect him to be a driver that finishes often in the 7th-15th range.
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
I was pretty tough on Kurt Busch in 2016 and I didn't hide it either, almost every week I would find something to put him down. Was I just simply hating on him? Hell no! I was just very disappointed with his lack of speed on a weekly basis. I know, he could run better than he did last year. He's capable of it, I had high standards for him heading into 2016. He just didn't live up to what I was expecting. Even though, he had a solid season overall. Just not the season, I was expecting though.
I think the biggest question will be can SHR keep the ball rolling with the switch to Ford? I think so. At one time, switching to a new brand would be a disadvantage for a driver. But now? Not so much of an issue. SHR probably been preparing the cars for months now. Also, I am sure the guys over at Ford has plenty of input for him. I could be wrong, but I doubt they miss much from 2016. If anything, the SHR drivers will just have slow starts.
Intermediate tracks will be a strength for Kurt Busch in 2017, much like it will be for most top drivers in the sport. I think the intermediate tracks will a good place for him overall. You can use him anywhere and probably have a good shot at a top 10 finish. However, the three tracks that stand out are Kentucky, Chicago and Cali. I think these tracks are the places where it is most likely for him to get quality finishes. Like, I said you could use him anywhere and have a good shot at top 10 finishes. I consider Cali as his best track though. He has been amazing here and I love employing him at Cali. It's big, fast and he loves it! He finished 30th in last season's race, but his record there is impressive overall though. Over the past 4 races (before last season's bad finish), he has finished 9th or better in 4 straight races. Including 3 finishes of 5th or better in a row, before finishing 30th in 2016.
Kentucky and Chicago are also very good tracks. They are both ranked inside the top 8 among the 23 tracks on the schedule, from a career point of view. He has only made 6 starts at Kentucky, had made the most out of those 6 starts. In 6 starts, he has posted 5 finishes of 12th or better. The one non-top 12 start was back in 2012. Also, the only race where he wasn't in a quality ride. He drove the 51 car in 2012 for Phoenix Racing, later to be known as HScott Motorsports. Over his past 4 races at Kentucky, Kurt has compiled 4 straight finishes of 12th or better. Chicago is also a very good track for him. In 16 career starts, he has compiled 9 Top 10 finishes and 11 Top 20 finishes. Overall, 5 of hte past 6 races has ended in 13th or better. Lone bad finish? 2012 again with Phoenix racing. Over the past 4 races, he has compiled 4 top 13 finishes with 3 Top 8 finishes in that span as well. The intermediate tracks will definitely be a strong suit for him, most weekends expect top 10 potential and top 5 upside from him at certain tracks.
The shorter flats tracks will be a strength for Kurt Busch in 2017. He's runs well on the shorter flats of Richmond, Phoenix and New Hampshire. All good places to unload him! Phoenix has been the kindest to him lately. Over the past 7 races at Phoenix, he's finished 7th or better in 6 of 7 races. Yes, that's correct. 6 Top 7 finishes over the past 7 races for Kurt Busch at Phoenix. On top of an stellar record, he also is teammates with the Phoenix master. A good combo to have at this place, I think!
Richmond also been a kind track to Kurt Busch recently. His numbers aren't quite as good here as Phoenix, but still they stand out to me though. Over the past 8 races at Richmond, he has compiled 7 Top 15 finishes. While, 6 of the past 8 races has ended in 9th or better. Including an win and 2nd place win in that 8-race span. He's pretty good here! New Hampshire also been good to him, more so from a career point of view though. He's ranked 9th of 22 track from a career point of view at New Hampshire. While ranking 18th of 23 tracks over the past 2 seasons. Even though, he has a respectable 14.0 average finish over his past 4 races (2 seasons) there. Overall, 5 of the past 7 races has ended in 19th or better. That's good. The bad? Only 3 Top 15 finishes over his past 11 races. He was a machine from 2008 to 2011. Top 10 finishes in every start, during that span. He was still with Penske Racing, too. Lately, he has been just good enough. Not sure, if that will cut it though.
The larger flats will be good places for him in 2017, as it been in recent years. People might overlook Pocono because he only has an 13.2 average finish, that's only good enough for his 17th-best track over the last two seasons. Don't be fooled though, he has an 37th place finish there in that span. Overall, 10 of the past 14 races has ended inside the top 10. In fact, he has posted 4 Top 5 finishes over the past 7 races. Most interesting stat of all? He's a damn stud in the June races! He has posted 6 straight finishes of 7th or better in June's Pocono races. So, we have to go back to 2009 to find a bad race. With 4 of the past 5 June races ending in 5th or better. That's insane! I have always considered Pocono as one of Kurt's best tracks. Ranked as his 5th-best track (in terms of average finish) for his career.
Indy is one those tracks that I try to avoid Kurt Busch at for the most part. He usually get nothing beyond low to middle teens. There's nothing wrong with that, but he doesn't have that top 10 upside we always looking for from him. Over the past 3 of 4 races, he has finished 16th or better though. Overall, he has posted 4 Top 16 finishes over his past 8 races. That's just not cutting it at a track, we only visit once per year. Kurt need to step it up at Indy, before he has any real fantasy value in my eyes.
Road courses will be a very good place to use him at, but Sonoma is his better track. Even though, Watkins Glenn is damn good too! At Sonoma, he has been on it lately. In his first 10 starts at the start, he had just 4 top 20 finishes. Over his past 6 starts at Sonoma? 6 straight Top 12 finishes. While 4 of those 6 races has ended in 4th or better. His numbers at Watkins aren't too bad either. In fact, I think he is very underrated at WGI. People give him a lot of love at Sonoma because how well he has ran well there the past 6 seasons. But in reality, he has ran well at Watkins even longer. How long? How about 8 top 11 finishes over his past 10 races. While posting 10 Top 12 finishes over his past 14 races. That's insanely good! Also, he has posted 4 straight finishes of 12th or better. With 2 Top 5 finishes over the past 3 seasons. Show some Kurt some love at the road courses, folks!
I view Kurt as the most underrated plate racer in the series, he has never won at either track. However, I think he is the greatest active driver to never win a plate race in the Cup series. His number lately been off of the charts too. He's been very good at Talladega when looking at the numbers. Ranked 10th-best (of 23 tracks) in terms of career average finish. Over the past 5 races at Talladega, he has compiled 5 straight finishes of 12th or better. Like that? Well, he also has 4 Top 10 finishes in that span, including 3 straight top 10 finishes entering 2017. Daytona been pretty good to him as well. Over the past 6 races at Daytona, he has compiled 4 Top 10 finishes. While, 3 of the past 4 races has ended inside the top 10. There's a lot of good things to like about Kurt at Daytona and Talladega. Just a note, he would had 4 straight Top 10 finishes at Daytona. If he wasn't wrecked on the final lap at Daytona last July.
Short tracks (Martinsville and Bristol) will be his biggest weakness, I think. It has been a type of track that he's struggled at recently. He has ran well at Bristol lately, but the results just haven't been there for him though. Over the past 9 races at Bristol, he has compiled 5 finishes of 15th or better. While 3 of those 5 races ended in 5th or better. That's great, right? Definitely. Problem is? He's also finished 28th or worse in 4 races as well. He's sound like a high-risk/high-reward type of pick. Martinsville been much worse for him than Bristol. Martinsville ranked as his worst track (in terms of average finish) over the past two seasons. I am not going to go into deep details, but I will leave you with one important stat: Over the past 22 races at Martinsville, Kurt Busch has compiled 1 Top 10 finish. Yes, 1 top 10 finishes over his past 22 races. And that was his win back in 2014 with the #41 team. I am not even going to say anymore. That's all you really need to know about Kurt. At best, he will deliver a top 15 finish. That's isn't cutting it for me.
In 2017, I expect Kurt Busch to do what he always had. And that's just run well week in and week out. I highly doubt, if we see him go to victory lane more than once or twice hoenstly. But I do expect to see him as a top 10 contender on a weekly basis. I think it is important to use him on the road courses, shorter flats and certain intermediate tracks. Those are the places, where he is likely to have the most fantasy value. I think Kurt's best tracks are: Sonoma, Phoenix, Cali, Watkins Glenn and Pocono. I also think you can throw in the plate tracks and Richmond into the mix as well. I expect Kurt to make the chase once again this season, but he will likely do it off of consistency. Kurt's biggest asset the past two seasons has been about getting the quality finishes. More often than not, he haven't truly contended for the wins. Even though, I would say there been several races where he had top 5 potential. Point being, Kurt's value is based off of pure upside. Unless the 41 team improves significantly, I fully expect him to be a driver that finishes often in the 7th-15th range.
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
