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Ryan Blaney is coming off a very successful season with the Wood brothers in 2016 and had a solid rookie season with them. He will return to them in 2017 and try to improve upon that. I think he is behind both Larson and Chase among the newcomers over the past 5 years. With that said, he is making headway and that's all important for him overall. Blaney will run well just about on every track, minus the road courses. His primary strength will be on the intermediate tracks and flat tracks though. He will be inconsistent like last year and bad luck will be his worst friend as well.
Intermediate tracks stand out for him as his primary strength because of Wood brothers' relationship with Penske. They get strong backing from them, so it's only make sense that the intermediate are good venues for him. I would say that Michigan, Kansas and Las Vegas are his best intermediate tracks. If you are familiar with the tracks, then you know they are pretty similar with each other. More specific, they all see very little ''tire fall-off''. For whatever reason, Blaney underperformed (especially early in the year in 2016) at the tracks that saw a lot of fall-off at. Like Cali, Texas, Richmond (not an intermediate track but still get the point), Atlanta, etc. He did much better job of tire management as went on though.
I would say that Kansas is considered his best track early in his career thus far overall. In 4 career starts, he has compiled 3 Top 14 finishes with average driver rating of 90.8. Over his past three races at Kansas, he has compiled an average driver rating of 90.8. He also has posted finishes of 5th and 7th in those 3 races. He finished 14th place back at the fall race in 2016. In the spring race (in May), he was straight up impressive. He had an 99.0 driver rating and ran between 5th-8th for most of the event. A couple better cars wrecked out and had issues, but still strong performance back in last May at Kansas! He has performed well at both Las Vegas and Michigan as well. Nothing special at Michigan, but he has posted good performances in 2016 of 5th and 17th. He had a top 5 run in the second race, but in the first race, he is underrated though. He ran good in that race, but didn't get the finish he really deserved if I remember correctly. Much like Kansas and Michigan in 2016, he ran very well at Las Vegas in 2016. Last season, he was very impressive at Las Vegas and had a legit top 7 run there. He finished 6th for the race and looked very good, not doubt. I like him at all three tracks overall for 2017, but Kansas would be my first choice though. Followed by Vegas and then Michigan. Other intermediate tracks will be questionable, however it is hard to say where it will be though.
The flat tracks should be a strong spot for him overall, as he is expected to run well at both them. I think he will be better on the shorter flats though. He has ran well at 2 of the 3 shorter flats so far in his short career with the #21 team. He has ran well at both New Hampshire and Phoenix. But I would say that Phoenix is a bit kinder to him though. Phoenix has been a great track for him and was very good to him in 2016. In 2 starts (both in 2016), he has compiled 9.0 average finish with 2 top 10 finishes. This is the only track that he can say that about. At no other track has he swept the top 10 at. In fact, only at Kansas and Talladega does he has more top 10 finishes (3 a piece). He has 4 starts at Kansas and 5 starts at Talladega. So yeah was very good at Phoenix in 2016 in his first two starts. Not quite as good at New Hampshire, but he has more starts there as well though. In 3 starts there, he has posted 15.3 average finish with 2 top 15 finishes. With finishes of 11th and 12th in 2016. He finished 23rd in his first race at New Hamsphire in 2015. I believe he had a flat tire while running inside the top 12 and had to pit. To me, that says a lot. He has ran well at every race at New Hampshire and I love it, too. At Richmond? You can avoid him for now, he finished 28th and 39tth in 2016 with the #21 car there.
Larger Flats will also be a good place for him as well in 2017, as he also ran very well there in the #21 car so far in his career. Both Pocono and Indy can be considered solid places to unload him. I would say Pocono is the bit better track, but mainly because he hasn't had a bad race there yet though. In 2 races at Pocono so far, he has compiled 10.5 average finish with 2 Top 11 finishes. He finished 10th and 11th in 2016 at Pocono. He was very good in both races, while posting driver rating above 87.0 in both races. Pretty good at Pocono in his first two tries. Usually that is a difficult track to master, but for Blaney it wasn't though. At Indy? While he has mix results in two starts at the track. He has finishes of 12th and 36th. He had an DNF in last season, but I don't fault him for it though. So I will give him a pass and play the wait and see approach. Overall, I would expect finishes in the low to middle teens from Blaney in 2017 on the larger flats. You can expect high-single digits to low teens on the shorter flats from him.
Short tracks will be a question mark for him overall. I think he will keep struggling at Martinsville but he has real potential at Bristol. I believe he considers it one of his favorite tracks. He just hasn't gotten the finishes at Bristol. He wasn't anything special in his debut in 2015 and finished 22nd. Not bad at all. He followed that up with finishes of 11th and 35th. He had driver rating of 93.5 and 78.9. The spring race, he was a strong performer and got the finish he deserved. The summer race, he finished well over 50 laps down and finished 35th. He probably would had gotten another top 15 finish. His driver rating tells you something isn't lining up and his laps down only further backs up that claim. He could be a legit driver at Bristol in the future. At Martinsville? I am not so high on him at. In two starts, he has posted finishes of 19th and 19th.The part I don't like? He really hasn't shown anything at Martinsville so far. Not very good at all. He posted an average driver rating of 66.1. How bad is that? That's the worst among his best 9 tracks (in average finish). His top 8 tracks, he has posted an average driver rating of at least 78.4. 7 of his other 8 best tracks are all above 80. Point being, he struggled at Martinsville in his first two starts.
Plate tracks will be a strength for Ryan Blaney in 2017 overall. He should excel at them in 2017, as he has in the past. I would say that Talladega is one of his best tracks so far in his career. He has a couple bad races, but in 5 starts he has multiple top 10 finishes already. If you exclude his 3rd race (DNF - blown engine), he has posted 4 Top 22 finishes in all 4 starts. He also has posted 3 Top 11 finishes over his past 3 starts. Minus that blown engine in October 2015. His past races at Talladega look like this: 11th, 4th, 43rd and 9th. That's damn good! How about Daytona? Not quite as good. Still not bad either though. In 3 career starts at Daytona, he has compiled 16.2 average finish with 8.8 average starting position. In those races, he has compiled 2 Top 19 finishes in his past two starts at the track. He had an blown engine in the first race (2015 Daytona 500) and finished 39th place. So over his past 4 plate traces, he has posted 3 Top 15 finishes. That's damn good from him! See why it is considered an strength? He just understands how to run well at both Daytona and Talladega!
The road courses will be a weak spot for him overall, I would say this will be his weakest area honestly. In made his career debut in Cup at both Sonoma and Watkins Glenn in 2016. The results? Not very good at all, I didn't expect him to be honestly. In the road courses in 2016, he compiled 21.0 average finish, 22.5 average start with 22.0 average running position and 58.8 driver rating. Across the board those are garbage numbers! Not his fault though, as he has had very limited time behind the wheel on this type of track. In 2017, I expect some improvements from him overall.
Overall, I would say that Ryan Blaney just need to keep making progress as a young driver. He is one of the many bright talents we had seen over the last few years. I think he is right in the middle of the youth movement. He should continue climb the ranks as he gains more experience! Blaney will run his best on the intermediate tracks, plate tracks and flat tracks. He will need to pick up ground at the short tracks (Martinsville mainly) and road courses though. Those are the tracks that he had the biggest issues last season. I would personally use him at the intermediate tracks first, then figure out the rest from there. I think Blaney is a low-teen driver right now with upside to finish inside the top 10 a weekly basis. With that said, he is a bit away from ''truly'' winning races. In 2017, I want him to take that next step and become a top 10 potential driver. Once that happens, then we will know he is close to winning his first Cup race. Until then, I don't view Blaey as anything other than a low-teen driver. He will often get top 5 and top 10 finishes, but he needs to take that next step. That's the biggest difference between him and guys like Larson/Elliott. Blaney haven't had that legit race, where he had a shot at the win. He ran top 5 a couple times, but nothing that put him over the top though. In 2017, I believe he could have that chance. Will happen? Only time will tell, in my opinion. I think bad luck will be his biggest issue this season. I say he has improvements across the board in 2017, but misses out on his first Cup win. However, I think the progression of Blaney will be obvious better though. I have him at 7 Top 5 finishes and 14 Top 10 finishes. I think you can give or take 1-2 either way on both those numbers, but it should be in that area though. I would use Blaney at Kansas, Vegas, Michigan, Phoenix and Talladega in that order among tracks.
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Ryan Blaney is coming off a very successful season with the Wood brothers in 2016 and had a solid rookie season with them. He will return to them in 2017 and try to improve upon that. I think he is behind both Larson and Chase among the newcomers over the past 5 years. With that said, he is making headway and that's all important for him overall. Blaney will run well just about on every track, minus the road courses. His primary strength will be on the intermediate tracks and flat tracks though. He will be inconsistent like last year and bad luck will be his worst friend as well.
Intermediate tracks stand out for him as his primary strength because of Wood brothers' relationship with Penske. They get strong backing from them, so it's only make sense that the intermediate are good venues for him. I would say that Michigan, Kansas and Las Vegas are his best intermediate tracks. If you are familiar with the tracks, then you know they are pretty similar with each other. More specific, they all see very little ''tire fall-off''. For whatever reason, Blaney underperformed (especially early in the year in 2016) at the tracks that saw a lot of fall-off at. Like Cali, Texas, Richmond (not an intermediate track but still get the point), Atlanta, etc. He did much better job of tire management as went on though.
I would say that Kansas is considered his best track early in his career thus far overall. In 4 career starts, he has compiled 3 Top 14 finishes with average driver rating of 90.8. Over his past three races at Kansas, he has compiled an average driver rating of 90.8. He also has posted finishes of 5th and 7th in those 3 races. He finished 14th place back at the fall race in 2016. In the spring race (in May), he was straight up impressive. He had an 99.0 driver rating and ran between 5th-8th for most of the event. A couple better cars wrecked out and had issues, but still strong performance back in last May at Kansas! He has performed well at both Las Vegas and Michigan as well. Nothing special at Michigan, but he has posted good performances in 2016 of 5th and 17th. He had a top 5 run in the second race, but in the first race, he is underrated though. He ran good in that race, but didn't get the finish he really deserved if I remember correctly. Much like Kansas and Michigan in 2016, he ran very well at Las Vegas in 2016. Last season, he was very impressive at Las Vegas and had a legit top 7 run there. He finished 6th for the race and looked very good, not doubt. I like him at all three tracks overall for 2017, but Kansas would be my first choice though. Followed by Vegas and then Michigan. Other intermediate tracks will be questionable, however it is hard to say where it will be though.
The flat tracks should be a strong spot for him overall, as he is expected to run well at both them. I think he will be better on the shorter flats though. He has ran well at 2 of the 3 shorter flats so far in his short career with the #21 team. He has ran well at both New Hampshire and Phoenix. But I would say that Phoenix is a bit kinder to him though. Phoenix has been a great track for him and was very good to him in 2016. In 2 starts (both in 2016), he has compiled 9.0 average finish with 2 top 10 finishes. This is the only track that he can say that about. At no other track has he swept the top 10 at. In fact, only at Kansas and Talladega does he has more top 10 finishes (3 a piece). He has 4 starts at Kansas and 5 starts at Talladega. So yeah was very good at Phoenix in 2016 in his first two starts. Not quite as good at New Hampshire, but he has more starts there as well though. In 3 starts there, he has posted 15.3 average finish with 2 top 15 finishes. With finishes of 11th and 12th in 2016. He finished 23rd in his first race at New Hamsphire in 2015. I believe he had a flat tire while running inside the top 12 and had to pit. To me, that says a lot. He has ran well at every race at New Hampshire and I love it, too. At Richmond? You can avoid him for now, he finished 28th and 39tth in 2016 with the #21 car there.
Larger Flats will also be a good place for him as well in 2017, as he also ran very well there in the #21 car so far in his career. Both Pocono and Indy can be considered solid places to unload him. I would say Pocono is the bit better track, but mainly because he hasn't had a bad race there yet though. In 2 races at Pocono so far, he has compiled 10.5 average finish with 2 Top 11 finishes. He finished 10th and 11th in 2016 at Pocono. He was very good in both races, while posting driver rating above 87.0 in both races. Pretty good at Pocono in his first two tries. Usually that is a difficult track to master, but for Blaney it wasn't though. At Indy? While he has mix results in two starts at the track. He has finishes of 12th and 36th. He had an DNF in last season, but I don't fault him for it though. So I will give him a pass and play the wait and see approach. Overall, I would expect finishes in the low to middle teens from Blaney in 2017 on the larger flats. You can expect high-single digits to low teens on the shorter flats from him.
Short tracks will be a question mark for him overall. I think he will keep struggling at Martinsville but he has real potential at Bristol. I believe he considers it one of his favorite tracks. He just hasn't gotten the finishes at Bristol. He wasn't anything special in his debut in 2015 and finished 22nd. Not bad at all. He followed that up with finishes of 11th and 35th. He had driver rating of 93.5 and 78.9. The spring race, he was a strong performer and got the finish he deserved. The summer race, he finished well over 50 laps down and finished 35th. He probably would had gotten another top 15 finish. His driver rating tells you something isn't lining up and his laps down only further backs up that claim. He could be a legit driver at Bristol in the future. At Martinsville? I am not so high on him at. In two starts, he has posted finishes of 19th and 19th.The part I don't like? He really hasn't shown anything at Martinsville so far. Not very good at all. He posted an average driver rating of 66.1. How bad is that? That's the worst among his best 9 tracks (in average finish). His top 8 tracks, he has posted an average driver rating of at least 78.4. 7 of his other 8 best tracks are all above 80. Point being, he struggled at Martinsville in his first two starts.
Plate tracks will be a strength for Ryan Blaney in 2017 overall. He should excel at them in 2017, as he has in the past. I would say that Talladega is one of his best tracks so far in his career. He has a couple bad races, but in 5 starts he has multiple top 10 finishes already. If you exclude his 3rd race (DNF - blown engine), he has posted 4 Top 22 finishes in all 4 starts. He also has posted 3 Top 11 finishes over his past 3 starts. Minus that blown engine in October 2015. His past races at Talladega look like this: 11th, 4th, 43rd and 9th. That's damn good! How about Daytona? Not quite as good. Still not bad either though. In 3 career starts at Daytona, he has compiled 16.2 average finish with 8.8 average starting position. In those races, he has compiled 2 Top 19 finishes in his past two starts at the track. He had an blown engine in the first race (2015 Daytona 500) and finished 39th place. So over his past 4 plate traces, he has posted 3 Top 15 finishes. That's damn good from him! See why it is considered an strength? He just understands how to run well at both Daytona and Talladega!
The road courses will be a weak spot for him overall, I would say this will be his weakest area honestly. In made his career debut in Cup at both Sonoma and Watkins Glenn in 2016. The results? Not very good at all, I didn't expect him to be honestly. In the road courses in 2016, he compiled 21.0 average finish, 22.5 average start with 22.0 average running position and 58.8 driver rating. Across the board those are garbage numbers! Not his fault though, as he has had very limited time behind the wheel on this type of track. In 2017, I expect some improvements from him overall.
Overall, I would say that Ryan Blaney just need to keep making progress as a young driver. He is one of the many bright talents we had seen over the last few years. I think he is right in the middle of the youth movement. He should continue climb the ranks as he gains more experience! Blaney will run his best on the intermediate tracks, plate tracks and flat tracks. He will need to pick up ground at the short tracks (Martinsville mainly) and road courses though. Those are the tracks that he had the biggest issues last season. I would personally use him at the intermediate tracks first, then figure out the rest from there. I think Blaney is a low-teen driver right now with upside to finish inside the top 10 a weekly basis. With that said, he is a bit away from ''truly'' winning races. In 2017, I want him to take that next step and become a top 10 potential driver. Once that happens, then we will know he is close to winning his first Cup race. Until then, I don't view Blaey as anything other than a low-teen driver. He will often get top 5 and top 10 finishes, but he needs to take that next step. That's the biggest difference between him and guys like Larson/Elliott. Blaney haven't had that legit race, where he had a shot at the win. He ran top 5 a couple times, but nothing that put him over the top though. In 2017, I believe he could have that chance. Will happen? Only time will tell, in my opinion. I think bad luck will be his biggest issue this season. I say he has improvements across the board in 2017, but misses out on his first Cup win. However, I think the progression of Blaney will be obvious better though. I have him at 7 Top 5 finishes and 14 Top 10 finishes. I think you can give or take 1-2 either way on both those numbers, but it should be in that area though. I would use Blaney at Kansas, Vegas, Michigan, Phoenix and Talladega in that order among tracks.
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
