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Ricky Stenhouse Jr is a very talented driver, make no mistake about that. Laugh, but he really is. Give him some speed and he will show you how good he is. I do believe that and we saw flashes of potential in the early parts of 2016. Before RFR faded in middle and end of the year, but doesn't change that Ricky could be a quality driver with better performance by RFR as a whole. I think dumping Biffle will help Stenhouse's performance. Seems crazy, but that's one less car they will have to focus on. Which means, RFR teams will be able to focus more on Ricky's car during race weekend. The experience factor will be missed, but they will be better off in the long term though.
I think Ricky's strength in 2017 will be on the intermediate tracks, he ran well on them in 2016 and proved to everyone he is a decent driver. Especially early in the season, he was very consistent inside the top 16 or so. However after that, he just taper off after about the first 13 races or so. Overall 8 of 11 races on 1.5 mile tracks ended inside the top 20. If we take out those bad races at Kentucky (40th), Homestead (30th) and Chicagoland (27th), then had an 15.1 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 77.0 driver rating on the eight 1.5 mile tracks. In case you aren't good with numbers, then those are all very respectable stats.
What intermediate would I use him on? I personally would go for him at Dover, Kansas and Charlotte. Those tracks stand out to me overall for him. I would say Dover is his best intermediate track overall. His numbers here are very good. In 9 career races at Dover, he has posted 7 top 20 finishes. He is even more appealing as of late, too. Over the past three races at Dover, he has posted 3 Top 14 finishes. Including finishes of 14th, 8th and 11th over his past three races. With 4 of the past 5 races overall ending in 19th place or better. Like I said, this is probably his best-overall intermediate track. Can you see why now? I hope so, because those kind of numbers been hard to come by for him the last couple seasons as a whole.
He also been very good at Kansas and Charlotte, I would say that Kansas is the better track of the two though. He has been very good at Kansas throughout his career. Over the past 5 races, he has finished 19th or better in past 4 of 5 races. While finishing 19th and 13th (twice) over the past three races at Kansas. Pretty good overall. I like that he is trending in the right direction, too. Three straight Top 20 finishes is very good. Also was quite impressive back in the first Kansas race (in May) last season. He posted an 86.2 driver rating, which ranked as a 2nd-best in his career. As for Charlotte, it has been pretty good too. In 10 career starts, he has posted 6 Top 20 finishes. In his first four races at Kansas, he posted 3 Top 20 finishes. Good, right? Yes, but then he went three straight races without an top 23 finish. How about his last three races? 3 straight Top 20 finishes of 20th, 15th and 13th. He hit the rough patch during 2014 and the early 2015 race. Make sense, as RFR struggled in 2014 and first half of 2015. If you are going to use him, then it should be at either Dover, Charlotte and Kansas on the intermediate tracks.
The short tracks has been a tail of two tapes for Ricky Stenhouse Jr so far in his career. He has been very good at Bristol, you could say it is his best track. When really thinking about it, Bristol is his best track and it isn't very close either honestly. Bristol has been a very good track for him. In fact, over the past 6 races (since 2014), it is the only track that he has posted an average driver rating of 80.0. In fact, only 2 of the past 22 tracks has he compiled an average driver rating of 70.0 or better. In 8 career starts at Bristol, he has compiled 10.6 average finish 7 Top 18 finishes and all 8 races ending in 21st or better. More so, he has posted 5 Top 16 finishes over his past 6 races. With 4 Top 6 finishes over that span as well. Simply put, Stenhouse is a stud at Bristol. Over the past 6 races, he has posted 3 Top 5 finishes. Including an 2nd place finish in his last race there in the summer time in 2016. Stenhouse just don't have many bad races at Bristol, in fact he yet to have a really poor finish. Martinsville is by far one of his worst tracks though. I am not even going to go into the detail, but over his past 6 races, he has posted an track-worst 34.4 average finish with just top 20 finish and 2 Top 25 finishes in 8 starts at the track. Stay away from him at Martinsville! Currently, he is on a race-streak that he has finished 32nd or worst over the past two seasons there. Do I need to say anymore? I didn't think so!
The flats tracks will be a decent spot for him overall, on both larger and shorter flats. But some tracks will be better than others though. New Hampshire has been his best flat track overall. It is the only flat track that ranked inside the top 5 among all of his tracks. Over the past 6 races at New Hampshire, he has posted 4 Top 17 finishes in that span. He has posted finishes 9th-17th in those 4 races. Also, he has posted 4 straight top 24 finishes. He finish in 24th in his last race there in the fall, but I think he will do better than 24th in both races in 2017 though. Richmond has been a better track than the numbers suggests. He has only posted 2 Top 20 finishes over the past 6 races. So why do I like him at Richmond? Well, he has proved he can run well lately at Richmond. 2 of the past 3 Richmond races has ended in 18th or 16th. He finished 26th back in April 2016 (last season), but he was competitively inside the top 15 before until late in the event. With that said, he has shown potential at Richmond. I like that! I would say Phoenix is his worst shorter flat track lately there. In his first 5 races at Phoenix, he finished between 12th-18th place. His last three races? 3 straight finishes of 23rd or worse overall. Not what I want to see out of him, in terms of trends. He also has two DNFs in that span, but he has improved in the right direction of late. As he has improved in every race in that span: 41st (Fall 2015 November), 37th and 23rd (Fall 2016 November). For Ricky's case, hopefully that it keep going that way for him.
Larger flats will be a could be a good place for him in 2017 honestly. He has ran well at the larger flats recently when really looking at it. At least at Pocono, he has though. That was shocking to me, since we don't think of him as a good racer there. However, he hasn't been bad at all. Over the past 6 races there, he has compiled 4 top 18 finishes. Good news is, he has finished either 18th or 15th in 4 of 6 races. Bad news, he has developed a scary trend in his career at Pocono. It goes like this: Two bad finishes (in his first two starts - 26th and 40th), followed by finishes of 18th and 15th (in 3rd and 4th starts at the track), then 41st and 42nd (in 5th and 6th starts) and then 18th and 15th again in last two starts. So if this trend continues for him, then he should finish very poor in both races. Positive news? Trend doesn't mean anything. They are just number pattern that can be broken at any given time. His Indy record isn't quite as good. In 4 career starts, he has posted just one finish better than 25th place. Good news? He finished 12th in his last race there and posted his best performance as well. Both positive signs for him. I doubt, he will repeat that top 12 finish in 2017 though. But a top 20 finish is within his range though.
Plate races and Road courses will be complete opposite for him. The Plate tracks are tracks that will be a strength for him, while you can expect him to struggled much on the road courses though. Let's start on the plate tracks. Daytona and Talladega, both has been good tracks to him in his career so far. I would say that Talladega is inside his top 3 tracks, not many drivers can say that. In 7 career races at Talladeaga, he has posted 6 Top 16 finishes. With 3 straight Top 16 finishes, while posting 3 top 10 finishes in the past 5 races. Over the past 6 Talladega races, he has posted 4 Top 10 finishes. Including 2 of those 4 races ending inside the top 5 as well. How does it compare to other tracks? He has the second-most top 5 finishes (to only Bristol - 3), tied for the most top 10 finishes (4 - with Bristol) and second-most top 20 finishes (to only Bristol - 7). Like I said, this is a top 3 track (more like top 2 honestly.) He hasn't been bad at Daytona, either. Over the past 6 races at Daytona, he has compiled 4 Top 22 finishes. Overall, he has posted 5 Top 20 finishes in 9 career starts. Including 3 straight Top 22 finishes with finishes of 5th, 19th and 22nd. Expect both tracks to be very good for him in 2017!
Stenhouse Jr has struggled at both road courses. He's been a little better at Watkins Glenn but that's not saying much. At Watkins Glenn, he has posted 2 top 20 finishes in 4 career starts. Good, right? No, not good because he has posted back-back finishes outside of the top 30 at WGI. He finished 38th in last season race, after being in an accident. Even worse? He has qualified 30th or worse in 3 of 4 races. He has been better at Sonoma lately, but his numbers as a whole haven't. In 4 career starts, he has finished 26th or worse in 3 races. His only finish better than 26th place? 20th in 2015. He has finished 20th and 26th in his past two races at Sonoma. Also, he hasn't posted an driver rating better than 58.9 in any of those races. That's right there should raise major red flags, since he wasn't involved in any wrecks. Just avoid him on the road courses!
In 2017, I would expect Stenhouse to run similar to last season. Consistent at times but a reliability at others though. Stenhouse best places will likely be the intermediate tracks and plate tracks. I also think he will run extremely well at Bristol. The next that I expect him to do well at are: Bristol, Dover, Talladega, Daytona, New Hampshire and Kansas. In that order to, I would prefer to use him. I think those tracks will be the ones that he find the most success to. Especially his top 3 of Bristol, Dover and Talladega. I love him at all of those tracks, I believe he will have great runs at them all. his worst tracks will likely be his bad days on the intermediate tracks, road courses and Martinsville. He will also have his bad days on the flats tracks as well. New Hampshire is his best shorter flat and Pocono is the better larger flat track for him.
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Ricky Stenhouse Jr is a very talented driver, make no mistake about that. Laugh, but he really is. Give him some speed and he will show you how good he is. I do believe that and we saw flashes of potential in the early parts of 2016. Before RFR faded in middle and end of the year, but doesn't change that Ricky could be a quality driver with better performance by RFR as a whole. I think dumping Biffle will help Stenhouse's performance. Seems crazy, but that's one less car they will have to focus on. Which means, RFR teams will be able to focus more on Ricky's car during race weekend. The experience factor will be missed, but they will be better off in the long term though.
I think Ricky's strength in 2017 will be on the intermediate tracks, he ran well on them in 2016 and proved to everyone he is a decent driver. Especially early in the season, he was very consistent inside the top 16 or so. However after that, he just taper off after about the first 13 races or so. Overall 8 of 11 races on 1.5 mile tracks ended inside the top 20. If we take out those bad races at Kentucky (40th), Homestead (30th) and Chicagoland (27th), then had an 15.1 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 77.0 driver rating on the eight 1.5 mile tracks. In case you aren't good with numbers, then those are all very respectable stats.
What intermediate would I use him on? I personally would go for him at Dover, Kansas and Charlotte. Those tracks stand out to me overall for him. I would say Dover is his best intermediate track overall. His numbers here are very good. In 9 career races at Dover, he has posted 7 top 20 finishes. He is even more appealing as of late, too. Over the past three races at Dover, he has posted 3 Top 14 finishes. Including finishes of 14th, 8th and 11th over his past three races. With 4 of the past 5 races overall ending in 19th place or better. Like I said, this is probably his best-overall intermediate track. Can you see why now? I hope so, because those kind of numbers been hard to come by for him the last couple seasons as a whole.
He also been very good at Kansas and Charlotte, I would say that Kansas is the better track of the two though. He has been very good at Kansas throughout his career. Over the past 5 races, he has finished 19th or better in past 4 of 5 races. While finishing 19th and 13th (twice) over the past three races at Kansas. Pretty good overall. I like that he is trending in the right direction, too. Three straight Top 20 finishes is very good. Also was quite impressive back in the first Kansas race (in May) last season. He posted an 86.2 driver rating, which ranked as a 2nd-best in his career. As for Charlotte, it has been pretty good too. In 10 career starts, he has posted 6 Top 20 finishes. In his first four races at Kansas, he posted 3 Top 20 finishes. Good, right? Yes, but then he went three straight races without an top 23 finish. How about his last three races? 3 straight Top 20 finishes of 20th, 15th and 13th. He hit the rough patch during 2014 and the early 2015 race. Make sense, as RFR struggled in 2014 and first half of 2015. If you are going to use him, then it should be at either Dover, Charlotte and Kansas on the intermediate tracks.
The short tracks has been a tail of two tapes for Ricky Stenhouse Jr so far in his career. He has been very good at Bristol, you could say it is his best track. When really thinking about it, Bristol is his best track and it isn't very close either honestly. Bristol has been a very good track for him. In fact, over the past 6 races (since 2014), it is the only track that he has posted an average driver rating of 80.0. In fact, only 2 of the past 22 tracks has he compiled an average driver rating of 70.0 or better. In 8 career starts at Bristol, he has compiled 10.6 average finish 7 Top 18 finishes and all 8 races ending in 21st or better. More so, he has posted 5 Top 16 finishes over his past 6 races. With 4 Top 6 finishes over that span as well. Simply put, Stenhouse is a stud at Bristol. Over the past 6 races, he has posted 3 Top 5 finishes. Including an 2nd place finish in his last race there in the summer time in 2016. Stenhouse just don't have many bad races at Bristol, in fact he yet to have a really poor finish. Martinsville is by far one of his worst tracks though. I am not even going to go into the detail, but over his past 6 races, he has posted an track-worst 34.4 average finish with just top 20 finish and 2 Top 25 finishes in 8 starts at the track. Stay away from him at Martinsville! Currently, he is on a race-streak that he has finished 32nd or worst over the past two seasons there. Do I need to say anymore? I didn't think so!
The flats tracks will be a decent spot for him overall, on both larger and shorter flats. But some tracks will be better than others though. New Hampshire has been his best flat track overall. It is the only flat track that ranked inside the top 5 among all of his tracks. Over the past 6 races at New Hampshire, he has posted 4 Top 17 finishes in that span. He has posted finishes 9th-17th in those 4 races. Also, he has posted 4 straight top 24 finishes. He finish in 24th in his last race there in the fall, but I think he will do better than 24th in both races in 2017 though. Richmond has been a better track than the numbers suggests. He has only posted 2 Top 20 finishes over the past 6 races. So why do I like him at Richmond? Well, he has proved he can run well lately at Richmond. 2 of the past 3 Richmond races has ended in 18th or 16th. He finished 26th back in April 2016 (last season), but he was competitively inside the top 15 before until late in the event. With that said, he has shown potential at Richmond. I like that! I would say Phoenix is his worst shorter flat track lately there. In his first 5 races at Phoenix, he finished between 12th-18th place. His last three races? 3 straight finishes of 23rd or worse overall. Not what I want to see out of him, in terms of trends. He also has two DNFs in that span, but he has improved in the right direction of late. As he has improved in every race in that span: 41st (Fall 2015 November), 37th and 23rd (Fall 2016 November). For Ricky's case, hopefully that it keep going that way for him.
Larger flats will be a could be a good place for him in 2017 honestly. He has ran well at the larger flats recently when really looking at it. At least at Pocono, he has though. That was shocking to me, since we don't think of him as a good racer there. However, he hasn't been bad at all. Over the past 6 races there, he has compiled 4 top 18 finishes. Good news is, he has finished either 18th or 15th in 4 of 6 races. Bad news, he has developed a scary trend in his career at Pocono. It goes like this: Two bad finishes (in his first two starts - 26th and 40th), followed by finishes of 18th and 15th (in 3rd and 4th starts at the track), then 41st and 42nd (in 5th and 6th starts) and then 18th and 15th again in last two starts. So if this trend continues for him, then he should finish very poor in both races. Positive news? Trend doesn't mean anything. They are just number pattern that can be broken at any given time. His Indy record isn't quite as good. In 4 career starts, he has posted just one finish better than 25th place. Good news? He finished 12th in his last race there and posted his best performance as well. Both positive signs for him. I doubt, he will repeat that top 12 finish in 2017 though. But a top 20 finish is within his range though.
Plate races and Road courses will be complete opposite for him. The Plate tracks are tracks that will be a strength for him, while you can expect him to struggled much on the road courses though. Let's start on the plate tracks. Daytona and Talladega, both has been good tracks to him in his career so far. I would say that Talladega is inside his top 3 tracks, not many drivers can say that. In 7 career races at Talladeaga, he has posted 6 Top 16 finishes. With 3 straight Top 16 finishes, while posting 3 top 10 finishes in the past 5 races. Over the past 6 Talladega races, he has posted 4 Top 10 finishes. Including 2 of those 4 races ending inside the top 5 as well. How does it compare to other tracks? He has the second-most top 5 finishes (to only Bristol - 3), tied for the most top 10 finishes (4 - with Bristol) and second-most top 20 finishes (to only Bristol - 7). Like I said, this is a top 3 track (more like top 2 honestly.) He hasn't been bad at Daytona, either. Over the past 6 races at Daytona, he has compiled 4 Top 22 finishes. Overall, he has posted 5 Top 20 finishes in 9 career starts. Including 3 straight Top 22 finishes with finishes of 5th, 19th and 22nd. Expect both tracks to be very good for him in 2017!
Stenhouse Jr has struggled at both road courses. He's been a little better at Watkins Glenn but that's not saying much. At Watkins Glenn, he has posted 2 top 20 finishes in 4 career starts. Good, right? No, not good because he has posted back-back finishes outside of the top 30 at WGI. He finished 38th in last season race, after being in an accident. Even worse? He has qualified 30th or worse in 3 of 4 races. He has been better at Sonoma lately, but his numbers as a whole haven't. In 4 career starts, he has finished 26th or worse in 3 races. His only finish better than 26th place? 20th in 2015. He has finished 20th and 26th in his past two races at Sonoma. Also, he hasn't posted an driver rating better than 58.9 in any of those races. That's right there should raise major red flags, since he wasn't involved in any wrecks. Just avoid him on the road courses!
In 2017, I would expect Stenhouse to run similar to last season. Consistent at times but a reliability at others though. Stenhouse best places will likely be the intermediate tracks and plate tracks. I also think he will run extremely well at Bristol. The next that I expect him to do well at are: Bristol, Dover, Talladega, Daytona, New Hampshire and Kansas. In that order to, I would prefer to use him. I think those tracks will be the ones that he find the most success to. Especially his top 3 of Bristol, Dover and Talladega. I love him at all of those tracks, I believe he will have great runs at them all. his worst tracks will likely be his bad days on the intermediate tracks, road courses and Martinsville. He will also have his bad days on the flats tracks as well. New Hampshire is his best shorter flat and Pocono is the better larger flat track for him.
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
