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Paul Menard is coming off his worst season at RCR and quite frankly it wasn't something we saw coming. He was trending upward in his progression as a driver over the past couple season. And then boom he goes way backwards in 2016. I personally was very disappointed him, I expected much more from him. Menard wasn't a great driver in 2015, but he had a pretty good year. In fact, he had a career year in 2015. So logically, I thought he was in for a much better season in 2016. Nope, I was sadly mistaken. That's okay, we can only go on what we know. So what to expect from him this season? We will see.
Menard will be at his best on the intermediate tracks. He struggled there in 2016, but I will give him a pass though. I think that was a fluke, as history says that he will be good on the intermediate tracks. Will he rebound in 2017? I think so and personally I would target him at the track that he has found the most success on and then look for seasonal trends when we get into the season. His best tracks? Cali, Michigan and Las Vegas are his top 3 intermediate tracks honestly.
Cali recently has been his best intermediate track and logic says that he will keep up the good run in 2017 as well. Over the past 3 seasons at Cali, he has compiled 9.3 average finish with 14.3 average running position and 84.8 driver rating. His 9.3 average finish ranks as the best in the series, among drivers with at least 2 starts at Cali. In fact, he is the only driver that has posted 4 straight top 15 as well. Overall 4 of 6 career races with RCR has ended in 15th or better. And all 6 races at Cali with the 27 team has ended in 19th or better. He is just plain good at Cali!
Las Vegas and Michigan also will be very good tracks for him and you should be targeting him at both of those tracks. Las Vegas is the prefer track to use him at though. He has been amazing at Las Vegas in his career. In terms of average finish, he is ranked 2nd at Las Vegas among the 23 tracks. At Las Vegas, he has compiled an 10.0 average finish with 13.7 average running position and 88.4 driver rating. His overall numbers with RCR at Vegas are as impressive as the ones at Cali. You could make a case, they are a little better as a whole, too. In 6 career races with the #27 team, he has compiled 6 finishes of 15th or better. Including 5 finishes of 12th or better! No, that's isn't an typo either. Paul Menard is a complete stud at Las Vegas. Currently, he has posted 7 straight top 17 finishes at the track. The longest streak of his career at the Cup level! He is also very good at Michigan. How good? 9 straight finishes of 18th or better at Michigan. His last three finishes has ended in 18th or 12th. So not as impressive as 4 straight top 8 finishes from August 2013 to June 2015, but still pretty consistent still. Overall, he has only two finishes outside of the top 20 with #27 team. Use him at Cali, Las Vegas and Michigan. Then fill him in as you go on the intermediate tracks!
Short tracks will be a place that is up and down for Paul Menard overall. He will be good, but inconsistent most likely. Always been like that it seems. I would use him at Martinsville before Bristol though. He is underrated at both places, in my opinion. In 9 starts with the #27 team, he has compiled 6 Top 20 finishes overall. His numbers are better than it looks recently. Over the past 6 races, he has compiled 4 Top 15 finishes over his past 6 Martinsville races. Folks, that's solid! Like I said, he's underrated at the short track. He's isn't bad at Bristol, either. In 12 career starts with #27 team, he has compiled 8 Top 15 finishes. With finishes of 15th, 11th and 9th in 3 of the past 5 races at Bristol. Overall, 6 of the past 10 races at Bristol has ended in 11th or better. Don't sell him short on the short tracks! He can be a very effective fantasy option.
The flats in general will be a weakness for him, in my opinion. His best flat racetrack is Indy. He even won here in 2011, after a fuel gamble beat an dominant Jeff Gordon. His numbers at Indy in general are just simply good here. In 6 starts with #27 team, he has finished 14th or better in 5 of those 6 races. More recently, he has finished 3 of the past 4 races inside the top 14. Menard has this place figured out and you can expect another low-teen like finish from him.
The other 4 flats tracks hasn't been nearly as good to him. Phoenix, Richmond, Pocono and New Hampshire all ranked as his bottom 11 tracks of 23. But he is starting to make stride at some of them. Phoenix is the most noticeable one lately though. He hasn't been great at Phoenix in his career, but he is showing promise of late. Over the past 4 races at Phoenix, he has finished 14th or better. With 3 finishes in the 10th-14th range. Prior to that, he had only 2 finishes better than 14th place in his first 16 starts at the track. Like I said, he is making gains at Phoenix! New Hampshire also hasn't been bad to Menard overall, but just not great though. Over the past 5 races at New Hampshire, he has finished 15th-18th in 3 of 5 races. So, he has been middle of the road lately. History says you can expect him to finish in the 15th-20th place range. 7 of the past 10 races at New Hampshire has ended in 15th-19th. No finishes has been better than 12th in September 2012.
Richmond and Pocono are his worst two flat tracks overall. I would say that Richmond is a little better for him, but that's isn't saying a whole lot though. Over his past 4 races at Richmond, he has compiled 3 straight finishes of 22nd or worse. With 4 of the past 6 races ending in 22nd or worse. Over his past 12 races at Richmond? He has finished 22nd or worse in 7 of those races. That's over 50% of the time, he is finishing outside of the top 20! Folks, that's is just asking for trouble right there. And Pocono is just as bad as Richmond. Both tracks are ranked inside the bottom 3 in career average finish and most recently as well. But he has taken it to a ''new level'' at Pocono recently. It's at a point, where you think he is having bad races at Pocono. Even though, he has had a lot of good races there with terrible luck. Over his past 8 races at Pocono, he has compiled 7 finishes of 26th or worse. No that's isn't an typo! 7 of 8 races has ended in 26th or worse. Holy shit that's bad! Including 4 of the past 5 races ending in 33rd or worse. Do I need to say anymore? Avoid him at both Richmond and Pocono.
Plate tracks will be a good place to unload him overall. Outside of the intermediate tracks, I would say this is the type of track that I would target him at honestly. He has been much better at Talladega than Daytona though. He has been impressive at Talladega overall. Over his past 4 races, he has compiled 3 Top 13 finishes. Over his past 7 races at Talladega, he has compiled 5 finishes of 13th or better. With 4 of those 5 races ending in 6th or better overall. Damn those are some solid numbers! He has been okay at Daytona as well, just not nothing impressive as a whole. Over his past 5 races at Daytona, he has compiled 3 finishes of 18th or 16th. Not bad at all, but nothing like his Talladega record. In his past 12 races (all with RCR), he has compiled 7 Top 18 finishes. So little over half of the time, he is finishing inside the top 20. Not bad at all, I would take my chances with him and get an solid teen-like result. His better finishes will likely come at Talladega though.
People always think of road courses being an weakness for him, but he is making gains at both road courses and has seen noticeable improvement. Especially at Sonoma, as he has finished 16th or better in 4 straight races at Sonoma. In fact, he has finished 20th or better in every start with the #27 team. So he hasn't been bad, but just not good enough to get the credit he's deserves. Menard been damn good at Sonoma, he could be a legit sleeper at Sonoma in 2017. He hasn't been quite as good at Watkins Glenn, but still decent though. Over his past 5 races at Watkins Glenn, he has compiled 3 finishes of 12th or better. All three of those races has ended in 12th-17th. Overall, he has finished 12th-17th in 4 of the past 7 races at Watkins Glenn. Don't expect the world from him at the road courses, but he won't be bad at all. Good sleeper, if you know where to look in certain formats.
In 2017, I am not expecting a whole lot. I know, he will be inconsistent. I know, he will have his bad races. However, I am hoping he has a few standout races. If he can have a few standout races, maybe then he can build some confidences and he then can get on a run. Outside of a few intermediate tracks, Indy and Talladeaga, I would keep my expectations in the middle-teen probably. I would keep an eye on him at Sonoma, Bristol and Martinsville. Tracks that suggests he is middle of road, but has a lot of promise. I think he will be at his worst on the flat tracks, especially at tracks such as Richmond and Pocono. Those are the two tracks that I would really avoid him at. I don't have much to say about Menard, so just know there will be chances to use him. It will be about timing with Menard, watch the trend and calculate your risks accordingly.
*All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Paul Menard is coming off his worst season at RCR and quite frankly it wasn't something we saw coming. He was trending upward in his progression as a driver over the past couple season. And then boom he goes way backwards in 2016. I personally was very disappointed him, I expected much more from him. Menard wasn't a great driver in 2015, but he had a pretty good year. In fact, he had a career year in 2015. So logically, I thought he was in for a much better season in 2016. Nope, I was sadly mistaken. That's okay, we can only go on what we know. So what to expect from him this season? We will see.
Menard will be at his best on the intermediate tracks. He struggled there in 2016, but I will give him a pass though. I think that was a fluke, as history says that he will be good on the intermediate tracks. Will he rebound in 2017? I think so and personally I would target him at the track that he has found the most success on and then look for seasonal trends when we get into the season. His best tracks? Cali, Michigan and Las Vegas are his top 3 intermediate tracks honestly.
Cali recently has been his best intermediate track and logic says that he will keep up the good run in 2017 as well. Over the past 3 seasons at Cali, he has compiled 9.3 average finish with 14.3 average running position and 84.8 driver rating. His 9.3 average finish ranks as the best in the series, among drivers with at least 2 starts at Cali. In fact, he is the only driver that has posted 4 straight top 15 as well. Overall 4 of 6 career races with RCR has ended in 15th or better. And all 6 races at Cali with the 27 team has ended in 19th or better. He is just plain good at Cali!
Las Vegas and Michigan also will be very good tracks for him and you should be targeting him at both of those tracks. Las Vegas is the prefer track to use him at though. He has been amazing at Las Vegas in his career. In terms of average finish, he is ranked 2nd at Las Vegas among the 23 tracks. At Las Vegas, he has compiled an 10.0 average finish with 13.7 average running position and 88.4 driver rating. His overall numbers with RCR at Vegas are as impressive as the ones at Cali. You could make a case, they are a little better as a whole, too. In 6 career races with the #27 team, he has compiled 6 finishes of 15th or better. Including 5 finishes of 12th or better! No, that's isn't an typo either. Paul Menard is a complete stud at Las Vegas. Currently, he has posted 7 straight top 17 finishes at the track. The longest streak of his career at the Cup level! He is also very good at Michigan. How good? 9 straight finishes of 18th or better at Michigan. His last three finishes has ended in 18th or 12th. So not as impressive as 4 straight top 8 finishes from August 2013 to June 2015, but still pretty consistent still. Overall, he has only two finishes outside of the top 20 with #27 team. Use him at Cali, Las Vegas and Michigan. Then fill him in as you go on the intermediate tracks!
Short tracks will be a place that is up and down for Paul Menard overall. He will be good, but inconsistent most likely. Always been like that it seems. I would use him at Martinsville before Bristol though. He is underrated at both places, in my opinion. In 9 starts with the #27 team, he has compiled 6 Top 20 finishes overall. His numbers are better than it looks recently. Over the past 6 races, he has compiled 4 Top 15 finishes over his past 6 Martinsville races. Folks, that's solid! Like I said, he's underrated at the short track. He's isn't bad at Bristol, either. In 12 career starts with #27 team, he has compiled 8 Top 15 finishes. With finishes of 15th, 11th and 9th in 3 of the past 5 races at Bristol. Overall, 6 of the past 10 races at Bristol has ended in 11th or better. Don't sell him short on the short tracks! He can be a very effective fantasy option.
The flats in general will be a weakness for him, in my opinion. His best flat racetrack is Indy. He even won here in 2011, after a fuel gamble beat an dominant Jeff Gordon. His numbers at Indy in general are just simply good here. In 6 starts with #27 team, he has finished 14th or better in 5 of those 6 races. More recently, he has finished 3 of the past 4 races inside the top 14. Menard has this place figured out and you can expect another low-teen like finish from him.
The other 4 flats tracks hasn't been nearly as good to him. Phoenix, Richmond, Pocono and New Hampshire all ranked as his bottom 11 tracks of 23. But he is starting to make stride at some of them. Phoenix is the most noticeable one lately though. He hasn't been great at Phoenix in his career, but he is showing promise of late. Over the past 4 races at Phoenix, he has finished 14th or better. With 3 finishes in the 10th-14th range. Prior to that, he had only 2 finishes better than 14th place in his first 16 starts at the track. Like I said, he is making gains at Phoenix! New Hampshire also hasn't been bad to Menard overall, but just not great though. Over the past 5 races at New Hampshire, he has finished 15th-18th in 3 of 5 races. So, he has been middle of the road lately. History says you can expect him to finish in the 15th-20th place range. 7 of the past 10 races at New Hampshire has ended in 15th-19th. No finishes has been better than 12th in September 2012.
Richmond and Pocono are his worst two flat tracks overall. I would say that Richmond is a little better for him, but that's isn't saying a whole lot though. Over his past 4 races at Richmond, he has compiled 3 straight finishes of 22nd or worse. With 4 of the past 6 races ending in 22nd or worse. Over his past 12 races at Richmond? He has finished 22nd or worse in 7 of those races. That's over 50% of the time, he is finishing outside of the top 20! Folks, that's is just asking for trouble right there. And Pocono is just as bad as Richmond. Both tracks are ranked inside the bottom 3 in career average finish and most recently as well. But he has taken it to a ''new level'' at Pocono recently. It's at a point, where you think he is having bad races at Pocono. Even though, he has had a lot of good races there with terrible luck. Over his past 8 races at Pocono, he has compiled 7 finishes of 26th or worse. No that's isn't an typo! 7 of 8 races has ended in 26th or worse. Holy shit that's bad! Including 4 of the past 5 races ending in 33rd or worse. Do I need to say anymore? Avoid him at both Richmond and Pocono.
Plate tracks will be a good place to unload him overall. Outside of the intermediate tracks, I would say this is the type of track that I would target him at honestly. He has been much better at Talladega than Daytona though. He has been impressive at Talladega overall. Over his past 4 races, he has compiled 3 Top 13 finishes. Over his past 7 races at Talladega, he has compiled 5 finishes of 13th or better. With 4 of those 5 races ending in 6th or better overall. Damn those are some solid numbers! He has been okay at Daytona as well, just not nothing impressive as a whole. Over his past 5 races at Daytona, he has compiled 3 finishes of 18th or 16th. Not bad at all, but nothing like his Talladega record. In his past 12 races (all with RCR), he has compiled 7 Top 18 finishes. So little over half of the time, he is finishing inside the top 20. Not bad at all, I would take my chances with him and get an solid teen-like result. His better finishes will likely come at Talladega though.
People always think of road courses being an weakness for him, but he is making gains at both road courses and has seen noticeable improvement. Especially at Sonoma, as he has finished 16th or better in 4 straight races at Sonoma. In fact, he has finished 20th or better in every start with the #27 team. So he hasn't been bad, but just not good enough to get the credit he's deserves. Menard been damn good at Sonoma, he could be a legit sleeper at Sonoma in 2017. He hasn't been quite as good at Watkins Glenn, but still decent though. Over his past 5 races at Watkins Glenn, he has compiled 3 finishes of 12th or better. All three of those races has ended in 12th-17th. Overall, he has finished 12th-17th in 4 of the past 7 races at Watkins Glenn. Don't expect the world from him at the road courses, but he won't be bad at all. Good sleeper, if you know where to look in certain formats.
In 2017, I am not expecting a whole lot. I know, he will be inconsistent. I know, he will have his bad races. However, I am hoping he has a few standout races. If he can have a few standout races, maybe then he can build some confidences and he then can get on a run. Outside of a few intermediate tracks, Indy and Talladeaga, I would keep my expectations in the middle-teen probably. I would keep an eye on him at Sonoma, Bristol and Martinsville. Tracks that suggests he is middle of road, but has a lot of promise. I think he will be at his worst on the flat tracks, especially at tracks such as Richmond and Pocono. Those are the two tracks that I would really avoid him at. I don't have much to say about Menard, so just know there will be chances to use him. It will be about timing with Menard, watch the trend and calculate your risks accordingly.
*All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
