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Kyle Larson is coming off a very good 2016 season, he's probably the biggest turnover from beginning of the season to end of the season. CGR lacked speed often in the first 10 races. After that, Larson and the 42 team were fast on a weekly basis almost. Several close calls before finally breaking through to victory lane. Larson is high risk/high reward driver. He will have his bad days, but he is very well-rounded. He can run well at any kind of track. His problem? Being consistent. What will he do in 2017? Well let's find out!
Intermediate tracks
The intermediate tracks will be good and bad for Larson. He will have some really good performance but then the next race just have shit luck. Not many drivers will be as inconsistent as Larson, but his upside is so large though. Hard to pass on him, when he looks really strong during the weekend. I have found that you should focus on Larson at his best racetracks. Use him at his best tracks and then let the chips fall wherever after that. His best intermediate tracks? Michigan, Dover and Homestead. You can also add Chicago and Darlington to that list.
Homestead is Larson's best track by far and it is not even close, either. Larson loves Homestead and has been a complete beast the past two seasons there. In 2015, he had the car to beat on the long run. Just never had the track position to get the lead and lacked short-run speed. In last season's event, Larson was a stud on both short runs and long runs. Only difference was that Larson could stench out the lead to 3 or 4 seconds easy once everyone tires worn down. He led a race-high (and career-high) 132 laps. Most impressive about Larson at Homestead? He has never qualified better than 20th in 4 starts, and that was with the #51 team in 2013. Despite that, he has finished 15th or better in every start. Also over the past two seasons, he has nearly double the fast laps than anybody else. He has 108 fast laps in the past two Homestead races, while Kyle Busch (2nd-most) has 63. While, we are at it, he's led the most laps over the past two seasons as well at 134 laps. He's great at Homestead, you better plan to use him.
Dover is Larson's next best intermediate track overall. It's not your typical 1.5 or even 2.0 mile intermediate track, but still considered as an intermediate track. Only 1-mile in length, but the speeds here are incredible. One of my favorite tracks on the schedule and Larson loves it, too! He has found some success here so far in his career. He finished 25th in last fall's race, after suffering mechanical early in the event. He could never recover and was eliminated from the chase. In his first 5 races at Dover, he compiled 5 top 11 finishes. He finished 11th in his debut at Dover in 2014. He followed that up wit finishes of 6th, 3rd, 9th and 2nd. His most notable finish was in 2016 spring race. That race could be responsible for giving his season a springboard. He qualified 24th for that race and nearly went a lap down after just 100 laps mark. 100 laps later, he was leading the race and eventually would finish 2nd and led second-most laps to only Kevin Harvick.
Intermediate tracks to avoid him? Kentucky, Kansas and Atlanta. At those three tracks in 12 starts, he's posted just 5 Top 20 finishes. That's less than 50%. He has one top 20 finish apiece at both Kentucky and Atlanta. Better places to use him!
Larger Flat tracks
I love him on the large flat racetracks, he's so smooth at both Indy and Pocono. You could make a case for him as a top 5 driver on the large flat tracks over the past three seasons. Not many drivers can say that, especially not a driver with three seasons of experience in Cup. In 9 starts combined (at both Indy and Pocono), he's finished 12th or better in every start. That's crazy good! Pocono is his more proven track though. In 6 starts at Pocono, he's finished 12th or better in every start. He has better finishes in the first Pocono, with finishes of 5th, 8th and 11th. Problem is? He is trending the wrong way. 11th in his most recent start. The 2nd Pocono races? He has finishes of 11th, 12th and 6th. The finishes are worse, but his in-race numbers are better. In the first Pocono races, he's posted 14.3 average running position and 87.7 driver rating. Not bad numbers at all. However, his numbers in the 2nd Pocono races are better, despite lower finishes. In the 2nd Pocono races, he posted 9.0 average running position and 103.6 driver rating. Doesn't really mean much, unless you are big believer in trends.
Indy is the other large flat racetrack on the schedule, and he is just as good there. In 3 starts at Indy, Larson has finishes of 7th, 9th and 5th. In those 3 races, he's posted 8.0 average running position and 104.8 driver rating. Larson has topped 103.0 driver rating in every start at Indy. Very few drivers are able to say something like that! Larson will be very strong on the large flat racetracks, you can make a case that it is his best type of track.
Short Flat tracks
The short flat tracks been good to Larson so far in his first three seasons. He has had his bad days, but still pretty solid overall. He doesn't really have a standout track yet, but Richmond is probably his best track. In 6 starts at Richmond, he hasn't finished worse than 16th. Even better? Take out last April's (2016 spring race) 15th and his debut's in April 2014, he been stout. Those are his worst two performances overall. Lowest two finishes and driver ratings among the 6 races. The other 4 races? 9.3 average finish, 10.3 average running position and 95.3 driver rating. He's legit at Richmond, folks!
New Hampshire is also good to him and was really good to him in his rookie season, but just haven't been the same the past couple season. In 6 starts at New Hampshire, he's posted 5 Top 17 finishes. Yes it is good, but not great. Over his past 4 starts, he's finished 3 of 4 races in 17th or 31st. He did finish 10th in last fall (2016) race though. That's a good sign. Also, he ran far better last fall than his did in those three previous races, as well. For Larson's sake, I hope he can keep the turn-around going. Phoenix is the last short flat racetrack. He's good there, too. In the past 5 races at Phoenix, he's finished 13th or better in 4 races. He finished 3rd in last season (fall) race. Three times in that span, he's posted a driver rating above 92.0. Larson will go on the short flat racetracks and have top 10 potential almost every time.
Short tracks
The short tracks (Martinsville and Bristol) will be tough for him. He's just cannot seem to get good finishes consistency at either track. He's good at Bristol, no doubt. From pure potential and talent, he's a top 5 driver. He's potentially was a top 5 driver in both races in 2016 at Bristol! The first race, he was running 3rd and had a mechanical issue. In the second race, he was running around the top 5 and got involved in the Kyle Busch's wreck. He had great long run speed in both races as well. In Larson's first three races at Bristol, he's finished between 7th-12th. The past three races just been pure terrible luck.
Martinsville been a tough spot for him so far in his career. In his first 4 starts, he had just one finish better than 20th. And that was 19th place in November 2015. He shown major improvements in 2016, as he's posted finishes of 14th and 3rd. He also posted 9.0 average running position and 99.3 driver rating. Far better in the spring race than the fall race. During the fall race, he's finished a lap down in 14th. Still had an 11.0 average running position and completed 89% inside the top 15. Larson's improvements at Martinsville were incredible in 2016. Another example how much progress he has made from his rookie year to his 3rd year.
Road courses
The Road courses will be strong type of track for Kyle Larson. I want you to say hello to one of the most ''underrated'' road course racer in the series! You are probably thinking, he is? Oh yes, I don't think many people realize how good Larson is. Pretty impressive for Larson at his age, running as good as he has on the road courses. Most young drivers struggle on the road courses and don't do any better than middle teens, but in year 3, Larson was very good at both tracks. He was an legit driver at Sonoma, but a speeding penalty did him in though. He had a top 5 run going early for him, if I remember right he faded to the top 10 at one point. However, he got a speeding penalty that really cost him late. He had to rally late to get a solid 12th place finish. He had finishes of 15th and 28th in his first two starts at Sonoma. Something happen to him in 2015 that cost him a better finish. In 2014, he had power steering issues. If imagine having no power steering at Sonoma. A super challenging road course that requires a lot of braking. It was amazed, he didn't drop further down the leaderboard than that.
Larson been very good at Watkins Glenn as well. In his first start at the track, he struggled throughout the weekend. Right, like most rookies do. He dropped to 28th at one point. Unlike most rookies, Larson took all he's learned that weekend and then made a hard charge to the front. In the final 20 laps or so, he fought hard from mid-pack and finished 4th. That was impressive to see from him. That's the difference from Larson and guys like Dillon, Blaney and Elliott. He seems to process the information quicker as a driver. In his 2nd start (in 2015), he's finished 12th. He had 11.0 average running position and 99.4 driver rating for that event. So he finished right around where he ran most of the day. In 2016, he was much better than his final position shows though. The numbers in the race, just don't justify how good Larson was that day. There were a lot of crazy pit cycles and penalties. Larson was hit with a huge penalty while running inside the top 5. Huge blow that put him deep in the running order, however things worked out for late in the race. He got back with the leaders and ran top 10 for last portion of the race. On the final restart, Larson was able to charge back inside the top 5. However, AJ Dinger on the final lap wrecked while running 4th. Up and down day for Larson ended on the downside.
Plate tracks
Larson's biggest improvement may been his finishes on the plates in 2016. In his first two seasons (8 races), he's finished only 2 races inside the top 20 of 8 races. Both of those races came in 2014 at Talldega. Last season in 4 plate races, he's posted 3 Top 10 finishes. Even better? He swept the top 6 in both at Daytona. Something, I didn't think was possible for him. This is the same driver that said, he would like to see the plate venues demolished before last season started. Maybe the Restictor plate gods heard him and said, ''Is that so Kyle? I will teach you.'' I am not convinced that Larson is legit on the plates after one good season, but I feel better about him for sure.
***All stats are from Driveraverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Email - briggs_garry48@yahoo.com
Twitter - @Garryy12
Kyle Larson is coming off a very good 2016 season, he's probably the biggest turnover from beginning of the season to end of the season. CGR lacked speed often in the first 10 races. After that, Larson and the 42 team were fast on a weekly basis almost. Several close calls before finally breaking through to victory lane. Larson is high risk/high reward driver. He will have his bad days, but he is very well-rounded. He can run well at any kind of track. His problem? Being consistent. What will he do in 2017? Well let's find out!
Intermediate tracks
The intermediate tracks will be good and bad for Larson. He will have some really good performance but then the next race just have shit luck. Not many drivers will be as inconsistent as Larson, but his upside is so large though. Hard to pass on him, when he looks really strong during the weekend. I have found that you should focus on Larson at his best racetracks. Use him at his best tracks and then let the chips fall wherever after that. His best intermediate tracks? Michigan, Dover and Homestead. You can also add Chicago and Darlington to that list.
Homestead is Larson's best track by far and it is not even close, either. Larson loves Homestead and has been a complete beast the past two seasons there. In 2015, he had the car to beat on the long run. Just never had the track position to get the lead and lacked short-run speed. In last season's event, Larson was a stud on both short runs and long runs. Only difference was that Larson could stench out the lead to 3 or 4 seconds easy once everyone tires worn down. He led a race-high (and career-high) 132 laps. Most impressive about Larson at Homestead? He has never qualified better than 20th in 4 starts, and that was with the #51 team in 2013. Despite that, he has finished 15th or better in every start. Also over the past two seasons, he has nearly double the fast laps than anybody else. He has 108 fast laps in the past two Homestead races, while Kyle Busch (2nd-most) has 63. While, we are at it, he's led the most laps over the past two seasons as well at 134 laps. He's great at Homestead, you better plan to use him.
Dover is Larson's next best intermediate track overall. It's not your typical 1.5 or even 2.0 mile intermediate track, but still considered as an intermediate track. Only 1-mile in length, but the speeds here are incredible. One of my favorite tracks on the schedule and Larson loves it, too! He has found some success here so far in his career. He finished 25th in last fall's race, after suffering mechanical early in the event. He could never recover and was eliminated from the chase. In his first 5 races at Dover, he compiled 5 top 11 finishes. He finished 11th in his debut at Dover in 2014. He followed that up wit finishes of 6th, 3rd, 9th and 2nd. His most notable finish was in 2016 spring race. That race could be responsible for giving his season a springboard. He qualified 24th for that race and nearly went a lap down after just 100 laps mark. 100 laps later, he was leading the race and eventually would finish 2nd and led second-most laps to only Kevin Harvick.
Intermediate tracks to avoid him? Kentucky, Kansas and Atlanta. At those three tracks in 12 starts, he's posted just 5 Top 20 finishes. That's less than 50%. He has one top 20 finish apiece at both Kentucky and Atlanta. Better places to use him!
Larger Flat tracks
I love him on the large flat racetracks, he's so smooth at both Indy and Pocono. You could make a case for him as a top 5 driver on the large flat tracks over the past three seasons. Not many drivers can say that, especially not a driver with three seasons of experience in Cup. In 9 starts combined (at both Indy and Pocono), he's finished 12th or better in every start. That's crazy good! Pocono is his more proven track though. In 6 starts at Pocono, he's finished 12th or better in every start. He has better finishes in the first Pocono, with finishes of 5th, 8th and 11th. Problem is? He is trending the wrong way. 11th in his most recent start. The 2nd Pocono races? He has finishes of 11th, 12th and 6th. The finishes are worse, but his in-race numbers are better. In the first Pocono races, he's posted 14.3 average running position and 87.7 driver rating. Not bad numbers at all. However, his numbers in the 2nd Pocono races are better, despite lower finishes. In the 2nd Pocono races, he posted 9.0 average running position and 103.6 driver rating. Doesn't really mean much, unless you are big believer in trends.
Indy is the other large flat racetrack on the schedule, and he is just as good there. In 3 starts at Indy, Larson has finishes of 7th, 9th and 5th. In those 3 races, he's posted 8.0 average running position and 104.8 driver rating. Larson has topped 103.0 driver rating in every start at Indy. Very few drivers are able to say something like that! Larson will be very strong on the large flat racetracks, you can make a case that it is his best type of track.
Short Flat tracks
The short flat tracks been good to Larson so far in his first three seasons. He has had his bad days, but still pretty solid overall. He doesn't really have a standout track yet, but Richmond is probably his best track. In 6 starts at Richmond, he hasn't finished worse than 16th. Even better? Take out last April's (2016 spring race) 15th and his debut's in April 2014, he been stout. Those are his worst two performances overall. Lowest two finishes and driver ratings among the 6 races. The other 4 races? 9.3 average finish, 10.3 average running position and 95.3 driver rating. He's legit at Richmond, folks!
New Hampshire is also good to him and was really good to him in his rookie season, but just haven't been the same the past couple season. In 6 starts at New Hampshire, he's posted 5 Top 17 finishes. Yes it is good, but not great. Over his past 4 starts, he's finished 3 of 4 races in 17th or 31st. He did finish 10th in last fall (2016) race though. That's a good sign. Also, he ran far better last fall than his did in those three previous races, as well. For Larson's sake, I hope he can keep the turn-around going. Phoenix is the last short flat racetrack. He's good there, too. In the past 5 races at Phoenix, he's finished 13th or better in 4 races. He finished 3rd in last season (fall) race. Three times in that span, he's posted a driver rating above 92.0. Larson will go on the short flat racetracks and have top 10 potential almost every time.
Short tracks
The short tracks (Martinsville and Bristol) will be tough for him. He's just cannot seem to get good finishes consistency at either track. He's good at Bristol, no doubt. From pure potential and talent, he's a top 5 driver. He's potentially was a top 5 driver in both races in 2016 at Bristol! The first race, he was running 3rd and had a mechanical issue. In the second race, he was running around the top 5 and got involved in the Kyle Busch's wreck. He had great long run speed in both races as well. In Larson's first three races at Bristol, he's finished between 7th-12th. The past three races just been pure terrible luck.
Martinsville been a tough spot for him so far in his career. In his first 4 starts, he had just one finish better than 20th. And that was 19th place in November 2015. He shown major improvements in 2016, as he's posted finishes of 14th and 3rd. He also posted 9.0 average running position and 99.3 driver rating. Far better in the spring race than the fall race. During the fall race, he's finished a lap down in 14th. Still had an 11.0 average running position and completed 89% inside the top 15. Larson's improvements at Martinsville were incredible in 2016. Another example how much progress he has made from his rookie year to his 3rd year.
Road courses
The Road courses will be strong type of track for Kyle Larson. I want you to say hello to one of the most ''underrated'' road course racer in the series! You are probably thinking, he is? Oh yes, I don't think many people realize how good Larson is. Pretty impressive for Larson at his age, running as good as he has on the road courses. Most young drivers struggle on the road courses and don't do any better than middle teens, but in year 3, Larson was very good at both tracks. He was an legit driver at Sonoma, but a speeding penalty did him in though. He had a top 5 run going early for him, if I remember right he faded to the top 10 at one point. However, he got a speeding penalty that really cost him late. He had to rally late to get a solid 12th place finish. He had finishes of 15th and 28th in his first two starts at Sonoma. Something happen to him in 2015 that cost him a better finish. In 2014, he had power steering issues. If imagine having no power steering at Sonoma. A super challenging road course that requires a lot of braking. It was amazed, he didn't drop further down the leaderboard than that.
Larson been very good at Watkins Glenn as well. In his first start at the track, he struggled throughout the weekend. Right, like most rookies do. He dropped to 28th at one point. Unlike most rookies, Larson took all he's learned that weekend and then made a hard charge to the front. In the final 20 laps or so, he fought hard from mid-pack and finished 4th. That was impressive to see from him. That's the difference from Larson and guys like Dillon, Blaney and Elliott. He seems to process the information quicker as a driver. In his 2nd start (in 2015), he's finished 12th. He had 11.0 average running position and 99.4 driver rating for that event. So he finished right around where he ran most of the day. In 2016, he was much better than his final position shows though. The numbers in the race, just don't justify how good Larson was that day. There were a lot of crazy pit cycles and penalties. Larson was hit with a huge penalty while running inside the top 5. Huge blow that put him deep in the running order, however things worked out for late in the race. He got back with the leaders and ran top 10 for last portion of the race. On the final restart, Larson was able to charge back inside the top 5. However, AJ Dinger on the final lap wrecked while running 4th. Up and down day for Larson ended on the downside.
Plate tracks
Larson's biggest improvement may been his finishes on the plates in 2016. In his first two seasons (8 races), he's finished only 2 races inside the top 20 of 8 races. Both of those races came in 2014 at Talldega. Last season in 4 plate races, he's posted 3 Top 10 finishes. Even better? He swept the top 6 in both at Daytona. Something, I didn't think was possible for him. This is the same driver that said, he would like to see the plate venues demolished before last season started. Maybe the Restictor plate gods heard him and said, ''Is that so Kyle? I will teach you.'' I am not convinced that Larson is legit on the plates after one good season, but I feel better about him for sure.
***All stats are from Driveraverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Email - briggs_garry48@yahoo.com
Twitter - @Garryy12
