Saturday, March 31, 2018

2018 Fantasy Nascar Preview (Texas)

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Fantasy Nascar Preview -

1-JMac: When we compare Jamie from 2017 to this season, I think the difference is pretty noticeable. Sure, he has had a few races where he has had bad luck. But for the most part, he haven't sniffed the top 10 or been able to stay in the top 15. If you watch the #1 car in 2018, you will notice that he has hung hovering around the 18th-20th place mark. In 5 races (minus Daytona), he has 17.8 average running position and 24.6 average finish. Those numbers speak for themselves. On the two 1.5 mile tracks, he has compiled 27.5 average finish with 20.0 average running position and 62.8 driver rating. I think with Chevy being behind the curve, the 1 team is struggle to produce the consistent low-teens/top 10 runs they had the last few seasons. He is looking more like the driver he was awhile back. Inconsistent, unpredictable and untrustworthy. Over the last few seasons, his biggest and probbaly only asset was his ability to get solid finishes on a weekly basis. That trait seemed to be gone. I would say away from him for now!

2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is off to a great start his season overall. He has been fast week in and week out, consistently contending for top 5 finishes. In 5 races this season (minus Daytona), he has the 2nd-best average finish (7.4), 3rd-best average running position (6.0) and 4th-best driver rating (107.3). On the two 1.5 mile tracks, he has been a top 3 driver with ease. At those two races, he has compiled 4.0 average finish with 4.5 average running position and 113.1 driver rating. He ranked 2nd in all three categorizes to only Kevin Harvick. At Texas in the past two seasons, he has compiled 10.3 average finish with 12.5 average running position. In 5 of his last 7 races at Texas, he has finished 6th or better. He had finishes of 5th and 6th in 2017. Keselowski should be easily one of the best picks this week. 

3-Austin Dillon: Outside of Daytona, Austin Dillon haven't been okay I guess.. In his last 5 races, he has compiled 16.8 average finish with 17.8 average running position. With that said, he has finished 14th or better in all three intermediate tracks. On the two 1.5 mile tracks, he posted finishes of 14th and 13th. He also finished 10th at Cali. On the two 1.5 mile tracks, he has compiled 13.5 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 71.6 driver rating. Overall, he haven't been bad this season on the intermediate tracks. I think he is good enough to be a decent flier on a low-teen finisher. But I wouldn't expect a top 10 finish out of him, his upside is probably somewhere between 12th-15th. That also the most likely range he will run in, too.

4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick has been the most dominate driver on the 1.5 mile tracks this season and it haven't been close. Keselowski has been the 2nd-best driver and their numbers has a sizable gap. On the two 1.5 mile tracks, he has compiled 1.0 average finish with 2.5 average running position and 148.1 driver rating. If you are not familiar with how driver rating works, anything above 140 is simply near flawless. He was flirting with 150.0, which is the highest driver rating you can achieve in a Nascar event. He has been incredible this season. And this is the type of track that he has performed best on, which is kinda saying something,too.

9-Chase Elliott: Elliott has had his moments this season, but I don't think he quite ready for his first cup win yet. His best race of the season was when he finished 3rd at Phoenix and honestly I don't think he has came close to be that competitive in any other race. On the intermediate tracks, he has mainly just been top 10 good. I cannot recall any race where he showed top 5 ''potential''. Texas has been one of his best tracks so far in his cup career. In four career starts, he has finished 9th or better in all four races as well. In those 4 races, he has compiled 6.5 average finish with 9.8 average running position and 97.1 driver rating. Elliott still has question marks about him, but I do think his upside is way higher than the small risks that comes with him.

11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has started off 2018, much better than he has in recent seasons. I kinda was wondering how he would look out of the gate. If history is any indication, he will be a force later in the season. So with Hamlin's solid start, he could be for a very strong season. Any time will tell, if that actually holds true though. In 5 races (excluding Daytona), he has compiled 8.6 average finish with 8.6 average running position. That's solid. At the two races on 1.5 mile tracks, he has compiled 10.5 average finish with 10.5 average running position If there was a real concern about Hamlin, then it would be this: Hamlin last top 10 finish in the spring time at Texas was in April 2010. He has had a lot more success in the fall races than the spring races. Can he break that trend this weekend?

12-Ryan Blaney: Entering the season, this was one of the places where I really thought that Blaney would contend for the win. I still believe that, after all he has looked pretty good on the other two 1.5 milers already this season. In 2 races on 1.5 mile tracks, he has compiled 8.5 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 97.1 driver rating. At Las Vegas, he stood out and I expected him to. I would consider it the most comparable track to Texas. Earlier this season, he started on the pole, held a driver of 114.1 and finished 5th. In his last four races this season, he had finished 3 times in 8th or better. Including 8th place at Cali and 3rd at Martinsville. He has a lot of momentum entering the weekend. On top of that, he led 148 laps in last spring race here.

14-Clint Bowyer: Bowyer is coming off a win at Martinsville, his first win since the 2013 season. It was a long time coming. It started to sink in that he was about to dominate at Martinsville, when he was consistently catching the 12 car on the long green flag run, before end of stage 2. I was just watching his lap times and watching him chewing into the #12 car lead. I was like, ''Yeah that 14 car is hooked up''. After he took the lead, he never really gave it back.He also has been solid on the intermediate tracks in 2018 so far. In two races on 1.5 mile tracks, he has compiled 10.5 average finish with 10.5 average running position.

18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy has been awesome this season and has already collected 4 top 5 finishes and a series-best 3.2 average finish since Atlanta. In that span, he also leads the series in average running position (4.0), series-best driver rating (122.1), 2nd-most laps led (233) and 2nd-most fast laps (212). Yeah that's pretty stout and his numbers on the 1.5 mile tracks are top 3, too. He has compiled 4.5 average finish with 6.0 average running position and 110.0 driver rating. Rowdy has a strong record at Texas, too. However, last season was not very strong by the 18 team. He had finishes of 19th and 15th. Prior to last season, he had 5 straight top 5 finishes at Texas, dating back to the 2014 season. From 2013 to 2016 spring races, he had no finishes worse than 4th. He had wins in 2013 and 2016. Why is that important? He missed the 2015 race. Which means, he won in 2013, didn't win in 2014, won in 2016, didn't win in 2017. Trends suggest that he will be back into victory lane in this season's spring race. Question is will the trend hold up? I wouldn't bet against it!

19-Daniel Suarez: I haven't been too impressed with the young JGR driver so far this season. He haven't really contended for any top 10 finishes, kinda like he started off his rookie season. I figured after a year of experience, he would start the season off better. He haven't, as he has posted 18.0 average finish with 17.0 average running position and 70.5 driver rating. Those are bad numbers, considering what kind of equipment that he is in. In the two 1.5 mile races, he has compiled 20.5 average finish with 16.0 average running position. He does have one top 10 finish to his credit and that was at Phoenix. He finished 15th at Atlanta, 26th at Las Vegas and 23rd at Cali. This weekend, I would expect a finish somewhere between 12th-16th most likely. He had things not go his way at Atlanta and Cali, so I will give him a pass at both races. He is capable of finishing in the top 15 at Texas. But I would cap him there though.

20-Erik Jones: Jones is having a nice season so far. He is not doing anything special, but he has remained consistent. In his last 5 races (since Atlanta), he has compiled 10.4 average finish with 12.6 average running position and 85.7 driver rating. Not great, but respectable in the early stages of the season. On the 1.5 mile tracks this season, he has compiled 9.5 average finish with 13.0 average running position. Between Atlanta and Cali (races no.2 through 5), he did not finish worse than 11th. He finished 17th at Martinsville. So like I said, it has been a solid start to the season for driver of the no.20 car. I would say that Jones will contend for another top 10 finish, but I am not expecting a breaking out party for him though. I think the 20 team is still working on their way to be race winning contenders with their new driver. He will get wins, but I think that will happen a little later in the season. He's still a solid fantasy pick!

22-Joey Logano: Heading into the season, I expect Joey to bounce back from that dreadful 2017 season. It looks like he is on his way to doing that, at least in the early going. I think some of that has to do with the strength of the Ford cars, in general. Joey has been very solid on these 1.5 mile tracks in 2018, too. He has compiled 6.5 average finish with 7.0 average running position and 100.2 driver rating. And his record at Texas is pretty awesome, as well. In his last 4 races at Texas, he has compiled 3.8 average finish with 7.0 average running position and 110.6 driver rating. Over the past two seasons, no driver in the series has a better average finish than Joey Logano does at Texas. In 10 career starts with Penske, he has posted 7 Top 5 finishes. His other three finishes are 12th, 40th and his recent finish of 7th.

41-Kurt Busch: With how strong SHR has been and how well it seemed often that the 41 has ran, I am kinda surprise that Kurt haven't scored a top 5 finish yet. That's weird to me, as he been up near the front just like his teammates been. Yet, he has no finishes better than 8th. And 5 of his 6 races this season has ended in 10th or worse. He started off the season strong in Atlanta and actually led 52 laps on his way to a season-high 8th place finish. He wrecked out at Las Vegas and finished 14th at Cali. Then there's Martinsville, where he once again did not finish in the top 10. Texas haven't been bad place for him, but he haven't overachieved at it, either. In his last 4 races at Texas, he has compiled 12.0 average finish with 13.0 average running position and 86.9 driver rating. Not bad numbers at all, but I think he can do better though. For this weekend, I wouldn't be shocked if he finished anywhere between 10th-15th. He obviously have the speed to contend for a spot in the top 10, but he haven't proven that he can close the deal this season.

42-Kyle Larson: Some people are asking, ''what's wrong with Kyle Larson?'' If you are worried about Kyle Larson, you have ridiculous high standards. There was a very good chance that Larson would decline in numbers from a year ago. And he haven't been bad at all. Martinsville (his worst track, in my opinion) was by far his worst performance of the season. He has been solid everywhere else. I think Chevy's slow start has also held Larson back some. But it haven't stopped him from contending for top 5 finishes. In 5 races (excluding Daytona), he has compiled 9.6 average finish with 9.2 average running position and 97.1 driver rating. Those numbers are miles better than any other driver from CGR, RCR or HMS. At Atlanta, he finished 9th. Then he had top 3 finishes at both Las Vegas and Cali. Three top 10 finishes in three races on intermediate tracks. He will be fine this weekend and has enough upside to contend for a top 5 finish.

48-Jimmie Johnson: The jury is probably still out on Johnson, but honestly I am not expecting much from him. I mean, look how he has performed so far this season. It haven't been terrible, but that is the best thing I can say about him. He has no finishes better than 9th. While 5 of his 6 races this season has ended in 12th or worse. In his last 5 races (excluding Daytona), he has compiled 15.4 average finish with 16.4 average running position. You don't need numbers to tell you that Johnson has been at best average. He doesn't look like a top 10 driver right now and sometimes he barely looks like a top 15 driver. Some of this may be because of the new car, they are using. But you cannot sit here and tell me that he is a good pick this week. He isn't until he shows something legit on the track. All I see is a driver whom ceiling is at best high-single digit finish.

78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr haven't quite gotten the love that he did last season, but he is nobody to underestimate though. Currently, he is on a 3-race top 5 finish streak. He have not finish worse than 5th place since the opening race at Daytona. He finished 5th at Atlanta, 4th at Las Vegas and won at Cali. He was so impressive at Cali. The strength of that car was impressive. He led 125 laps on his way to victory lane. He also has started on the pole in three straight races now. All three races, of course, led to top 5 finishes. And Texas is one of his best tracks, too. Over past two seasons, no driver has been better. He has compiled 4.8 average finish with 4.0 average running position and 125.9 driver rating. He has the best average running position and driver rating in the last two seasons. He also has led the most laps over the past two seasons. Truex Jr's strength on the intermediate tracks in recent seasons should not be overlooked. He is a top 3 driver entering the race.

88-Alex Bowman: There is not a lot to really say about Bowman yet, he is a young driver still. He is learning as the season goes on. He been off to a good start overall, I would have to say. In 2 races on 1.5 mile tracks, he has compiled 18.0 average finish with 17.5 average running position and 66.3 driver rating. So far (minus Daytona), Bowman has posted 13.4 average finish with 16.4 average running position in his last 5 races. Based on what I have seen this season, he will probably be somewhere in the teens. Personally I would say that he finishes somewhere 13th-17th range. That where most of his finishes has came this season. With that said, he haven't finished outside of the top 20 this season.

***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacinCheatSheet.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18