Saturday, March 10, 2018

2018 Fantasy Nascar Update (Phoenix)

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Fantasy Nascar Update -

1. Kevin Harvick - The 4 car is the man to beat once again this weekend. He had the car to beat on the short run and the long run in final practice. He was very happy with his car and nobody posted constantly fast time like Harvick did. I don't think he is as dominant as past few races, but he gonna come damn close to it though. He is starting 10th, but he will be very tough to beat when he get to the lead. Personally, I don't think it is a question that he does. I think the question is when. Don't bet against the 4 car. I think Kevin Harvick wins his third straight race this weekend.

2. Martin Truex Jr - I don't think the 78 car is nearly as good as the 4 car is, but Truex Jr has a lot going for him this weekend. He is starting on the pole, he has a fast car and he has a fast pit crew. I think his starting position is what stands out the most to me. He get the pole, so he will have the best pit stall for the race. Why is that important? I don't think any other track in the series where track position is more important. It is huge here. Truex Jr will likely be in a good spot all afternoon long to stay in contention, just because of how good of a pit stall. I think Truex Jr will be a player for the top 5 and then some.

3.  Denny Hamlin - Hamlin has been mentioned as one of the cars to beat this weekend and that seems to be the case. The 11 car is fast and his lap times are right there with Harvick for the first 15 or 20 laps, I think it closer to 30 laps is when he start to fall-off a lot more. Nevertheless, I think Hamlin has a top 5 car and on pure speed probably have the 3rd-best car on Saturday. Behind Harvick and Elliott. There's not a lot to say about Hamlin, other than he has a very good car. Don't forget that he had one of the best cars in the field in last fall's race. He had the car to beat in that race. After final practice, he said that they unloaded pretty close on Friday. What does that tell you about his car?

4. Chase Elliott - Elliott was amazing in two races here in 2017 and HMS in general seem to be a lot better than the last few weeks. Elliott almost won here in last fall's race and looks top 5 good on the speed charts this weekend. And he was mentioned in both practice sessions by the guys on FS1 as one of the best cars in the field. I believe that as his lap times looked great throughout the weekend. He qualified in the top 5 and there is a good chance that the 9 car will have something for them on Sunday. I think Chase Elliott will have a very nice rebound race from last week. Will he win? That's the question, but I been circling this place as one of his possible first wins tracks.

5.  Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson was strong in both races in 2017 here at Phoenix and looks very good once again. In last spring's race, he finished 2nd and could had won, if Newman didn't gamble. In the fall's race, he was strong but had a mechanical issue. He went on record saying that he thought that he was one of the few guys who had something for Denny Hamlin. As for this weekend, he has been good once again. He was reportedly ''very happy'' with his racecar to start off the final practice. Later in the session, he kept complaining about wheel-hopping too much and making car uncomfortable.With all of that said, I would view him as a top 5 driver entering the race. Larson's upside for the weekend is limitless, I think. Especially if they get that car more comfortable for him.

6. Kyle Busch -  Rowdy doesn't have the best car this weekend, but I highly doubt that he doesn't show up in the top 4 or 5 at some point. He wasn't outstanding in practice, but that does not mean he won't have a car capable of being at the front. Am I expecting him to win? No, but look at last week? He wasn't really that great all weekend. Sure, he was good but that's about it. What happened in the race? His team worked on his car and he finished 2nd. Point being don't overlook the No.18 car. He will have the right car when it matters most. Heading into the race, I would say that he is in that 6th or 7th place range. You know? Just on the boarder of being top 5 good. Those are the drivers you usually have to watch out for on any given race weekend. They are already pretty good and have the potential to get better.

7. Joey Logano - Logano has had a pretty quiet weekend, but he has been solid on the speed charts, too. He will start from the 5th starting position and been top 10 good in pretty much every practice session so far. I wouldn't say that he has anything for the win, but he certainly will be a factor for a top 10 finish for sure. Something that stood out to me in final practice? He ran 67 laps in that session alone. No other driver ran more than 56 laps. He made some pretty long runs in that practice session. Typically a driver won't make multiple long green flag runs, if they aren't pleased with their cars. Heck, a lot of times they won't even make one. Joey probably have better than an average racecar for the race. I think Penske in general is being overlooked. That could be a mistake!

8. Erik Jones - Erik Jones has an impressive track record here in his limited starts. He finished in the top 10 in both of his starts in 2017. He qualified in the top 10 on Friday and seemed to carried that speed over to Saturday. I wouldn't say that he had winning speed or anything, but his lap times looked on point where they need to be in final practice. Jones seemed confident in the speed of his car for the race. What else is there to say about him? All of the JGR cars are pretty damn good. A lot of people have pointed out the 20 car as one of the cars that could really shake things up. Problem is they been dealing power steering problems. That would be my main concern. Otherwise, this looks like his best week in the 20 car so far.

9. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski is starting deep in the field, but I noticed that he had a lot of speed in his car in both practice sessions on Saturday. At end of final practice, Jeff Gordon noted how good the No.2 car was. Again, like I said last week, to me it is notable when Jeff Gordon points someone out. It means it caught his eye. A 4-time champion probably knows a thing or two about racing. And I loved Keselowski heading into the week. He was one of the drivers that I thought would go under the radar and so far he has. But mark my words, if he get to the front, then some of these guys could be in the trouble. If the No.2 car get to the front, then I think he will challenge Harvick and company for the win.

10. Jimmie Johnson - Alright, I will bite and give Johnson the final spot in my top 10 drivers. He was probably top 10 good all weekend. Obviously, him and HMS are all better than they were the past couple weeks. He didn't qualified as well as his teammates, but he has had found plenty of success here in the past. Don't get your hopes for him winning, but he will probably break into the top 10 at some point and contend for finish in the latter part of the running order. If you are a Johnson's believer, this weekend has been encouraging. But I am not ready to label him as being back. This 48 team has a long ways to go. It will be interesting to see how it plays out for him!

Just missed -

Alex Bowman
Ryan Newman
Jamie Mac
Clint Bowyer
Aric Almirola
Ryan Blaney

***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18