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After another crazy Bristol race , we are headed south to Atlanta! For a little Sundday night race. Atlanta is an 1.5 mile oval with blistering speeds. Track position shouldn't be a issue. As this type track typically rewards the fastest cars later in the run. Atlanta is only one of 6 1.5 mile layouts in the next 12 races. Getting to understand the guys who run well is significant.
1-JMac: I was impressed by JMac at Bristol. Also I felt for the man. He leads close to 150 laps to finish 8th. Intermediate racetracks been Jamie strong suit in 2014. JMac often has shown promise in practice , but haven't put together that "statement" run. Atlanta could be the place for him. Over the past two races here , JMac have compiled 17.5 average finish , 1 Top 20 , 0 laps led and 78.1 driver rating. While compiling an 18.5 average finish on 1.5 layout in 2014.
2-Brad Keselowski: If you been holding on to your last Keselowski , then this is the place to use him. Keselowski been super stout on 1.5 mile layouts. Including two wins. First one at Las Vegas and another one at Kentucky. With an 15th at Texas (had a top 3 car). Finished 10th at Charlotte (top 5 car). In those races , BK holds an 6.75 average finish. Penske seems to excel at worn out tracks. Atlanta is worn out as they come. Over the past two races here , BK holds an 19.0 average , 1 Top 5 , 1Top 10 , 31 laps led, 1 DNF and 97.6 driver rating.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon wasn't that good at Bristol and finished 28th. Now on to Atlanta. The RCR cars tested here a while back. Which means this could make Dillon a nice option for Atlanta. Dillon have been an top 20 guy on similar tracks in 2014. I expect a similar outcome on Saturday.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick finished 11th at Bristol. But I have a feeling Denny Hamlin still isn't happy with Freaky Fast. Atlanta been a strong track for him in the past. Over the past two races here , KH have compiled 7.0 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 2 Top 10s , 101 laps led , and 113.8 driver rating. In 2014 , Harvick been inconsistent on 1.5 mile layouts. He started the year with an pair of finishes outside top 30 (Las Vegas and Texas). Fortunately he finished 2nd at Charlotte and 7th at Kentucky (had top 5 car ; flat tire late).
5-Kasey Kahne: Think people would learn not to even select Kahne , let alone start him. Yet it happens. Kahne have had a rotten 2014. He cannot be trusted. Atlanta isn't a bad track for him , but it unlikely for him to win though. Do yourself a favor and pick the consistent drivers. In the end , they will prevail over inconsistent individual such as Kahne.
10-Danica Patrick: I had higher hopes for Danica at Bristol then 27th place. But I was wrong. Anyhow on to Atlanta. This haven't been a great place for her , even though she only have a few start under her. Realistically she an top 25 option with possibly top 20 upside.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin isn't happy with Harvick , and I am not happy with Hamlin. Especially after he all but ended my championships hopes in Yahoo. Nevertheless he should be a nice option this weekend as he been consistent lately on ovals (5 straight top 10s). Hamlin struggled a bit a Vegas. Finish top 10 at Texas. Went back to struggling at Charlotte. Wrecked at Kentucky. Not sure what to expect from Hamlin. Over the past 2 races here , DH have compiled 19.5 average finish , 1 win , 1 Top 5 , 1 Top 10, 1 Top 20, 105 laps led , 1 DNF and 95.7 driver rating.
14-Jeff Burton: I am assuming Burton will be in the 14. Nothing been said , but my speculation is Smoke will sit out least few more races (if not more). Burton is a must roster option in Yahoo. Regardless of your opinion regarding Burton driving abilities.
16-Greg Biffle: The Biff been pretty good lately. His last result outside top 10 was Indianapolis. He is on a nice little run as get closer to the chase. Biff haven't been great in 2014 on 1.5 mile layouts. Including 0 Top 10. Despite that , Biff is running a lot better now. Over the past two races here , Biff have compiled 15.0 average finish , 2 Top 20, 1 lap led , and 80.6 driver rating. With 15th place finish both times.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy holds the best average finish (3.5) , 2nd-most laps led (102 laps led ; only teammate Hamlin led more w/ 105) , and the best driver rating of 119.5 at Atlanta over the past two season. Unfortunately he cannot be trusted right now. Especially after that epic meltdown at Bristol.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth should be one of the safest picks this week. Especially with a chase birth on the line. He almost lock-in , unless he finishes horribly the next two races. Kenseth was very strong at Bristol. Early speculation is he will have a great car for Atlanta. JGR cars were stout back at Kentucky (another night race). Kenseth finished 4th there. Over the past two here , MK have compiled 10.5 average finish , 1 Top 10, 2 Top 20, 0 laps led and 98.6 driver rating.
22-Joey Logano: I have patiently waited to pull the trigger on Logano since Kentucky. Mainly because how valuable he is on the 1.5 mile racetracks. And how much of advantage the Penske cars have had on similar tracks. Its unbelievable really. Logano finished 3rd at Las Vegas , Won at Texas , had a top 5 car at Charlotte , and had a top 5 car at Kentucky. He didn't get the finish he deserved at Charlotte or Kentucky though. Over the past two races here , JoLo have compiled 10.0 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 1 Top 10, 2 Top 20s , 78 laps led and 104.9 driver rating.
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon is just having a phenomenal season. I been impressed. Last week at Bristol wasn't one of his best races though. Luckily Atlanta is a great place for him to rebound. Not many drivers can say they have been better then Gordon recently here. Over the past two races at AMS , Gordon have compiled 4.0 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 2 Top 10s , 2 Top 20s , 23 laps led and 115.4 driver rating. Gordon been pretty good on 1.5 layouts as well. 10th at Vegas (realistically been a weak track for him for awhile) , 2nd at Texas , top 10 at Charlotte (had top 5 car) , and another top 10 at Kentucky. Atlanta was the mark of Gordon first Cup race.
27-Paul Menard: How about some love for old Menard? He scored his 11th Top 10 of 2014 at Bristol. I won't go into great detail on Menard. As I imagine Garry Briggs (@Gbriggs12) will absolutely rave on him in his sleepers & busts article on Wednesday. Just know Menard is a trendy type guy. When he scores an top 10 , he will notch multiple top 10s in a row. In 2014 , his top 10s have came in 3s. He scored top 10s in his last two races by the way.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman is having a nice season with RCR. Long as he doesn't mess up over the next teo races , he should easily make the chase on points. Newman isn't a top 10 guy in my opinion. Realistically he more of an top 15 option with top 10 upside. Newman been pretty strong on 1.5 layouts. Haven't had a bad race so far either. Over the past two races here , RN have compiled 20.0 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 1 Top 10, 1 Top 20, 3 laps led, 1 DNF and 85.5 driver rating.
42-Kyle Larson: I have said it for weeks now, Larson best shot at a win will come at Atlanta. Its judgement day for Mr.Larson come Sunday night. A lot of other experts also have thought this for quite awhile. Realistically he should have a shot at a top 10. How he practice and qualifies will be key though.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson bad luck seems to be behind him (for now). As he had a respectable top 5 run at Bristol. Honestly I wouldn't roster him to the chase start as he is the game best points earner usually during the final ten races. I wouldn't blame anyone who rosters and starts Johnson though. As he been strong at Atlanta in the past. In 22 career starts ,Johnson have scored 11 Top 5. That 50% folks. Not many other driver can say that.
55-Brain Vickers: Vickers finally had a bad race at Bristol with MWR (to no surprise). Vickers might make a nice option at Atlanta. But I wouldn't count on it. His inconsistent/ average numbers on Intermediate racetracks worries me. I would play an wait and see approach.
88-Dale Jr: Dale have been extremely strong on 1.5 mile layouts in 2014. Especially outside of Texas. Unfortunately he will be passed up for guys like Gordon , Harvick , and Johnson. Simply because they will qualify up front and lead laps. Jr is more consistent then anything. Over the past two races here , he have compiled 7.5 average finish , 2 Top 10s , 0 laps led and 86.6 driver rating.
99-Carl Edwards: Edwards had a strong outing at Bristol. Hopefully he can use that as momentum. Atlanta may be his best track not named Michigan or Texas. In 15 career starts , he have 3 wins and 8 Top 5s , and 10 Top 10s. Edwards should make an top 15 option , not sure about top 10 though.
* All stats from DriverAverages. com
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