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We are at Watkins Glenn this weekend. One of my favorites racetracks. I live very close to the track , so I will be at the racetrack this weekend (again). Most people assume drivers success automatically translates from Sonoma to Watkins. Unfortunately that is a common mistake. The two road courses are quite different. The only comparable thing is the same type of track. Watkins is longer , faster , and have more difficult turns to conquer.
1-JMac: JMac finished 4th at Sonoma. Don't expect a successful encore from JMac though. Watkins haven't been overly kind to him. Over the past two races here , Jamie have compiled an 25.0 average finish ,0 Top 5 , 0 Top 10, 1 Top 20, 1 lap led and 83.0 driver rating. In 11 races , Jamie Mac holds an 19.45 average finish.
2-Brad Keselowski: I feel for anyone who started BK at Indy or Pocono in limited start leagues. It like getting a nail drilled in your foot. Very painfully to waste such a useable driver like Brad. Brad have had great runs here recently. Over the past two races here , BK have compiled an 2.0 average finish , 2 Top 5s , 2 Top 10s , 37 laps led and 117.1 driver rating. In 4 career races at Watkins , BK holds an 6.75 , 3 Top 5s (75%) , 3 Top 10s (75%) , 4 Top 20 (100%) , and 39 laps led.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon finish 17th at Sonoma. But is it really worth it? Especially with Dillon having some great tracks coming up. Honestly I wouldn't use him here. This can be a unpredictable track at times. I am eyeing Dillon for Michigan. As he been solid on larger tracks so far.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick was bad fast at Sonoma. Had a winning car to top 5 car. But got involved in the JMac/Bowyer deal. Nevertheless I expect him to be bad fast and to be overlooked by most this week. Over the past two races here , Harvick have compiled 14.0 average finish , 2 Top 20s , 8 laps led and 85.4 driver rating. In 13 races , Harvick holds an 13.08 average finish. Harvick is a very underrated road racer.
9-Marcos Ambrose: Ambrose is the first guy that comes to mind at road courses and rightfully so. Back at Sonoma , he wasn't that impressive. Even though he finish top 10 at end of the day. He been better at Watkins then Sonoma in career anyhow. Over past two races here , Ambrose have compiled an 16.0 average finish , 1 win , 1 Top 5 , 1 Top 10 , 59 laps led and 124.3 driver rating. In 6 career races , Ambrose holds an 6.83 average finish and 2 wins. Only once have Ambrose finish outside the top 5. That race was the most recent one held here.
10-Danica Patrick: Danica Patrick killed several fantasy teams over the past few races (not mine). Anyhow she probably your best option this week though. In 2013 , she finished 20th here. Earlier this season , she finished 18th at Sonoma.
14-Tony Stewart: Smoke killed my score at Indy (sort of) and murdered my day at Pocono. But I am trying use my Tony(s) before the chase. As its unlikely for him to make the chase at this rate. So I will likely put him on my team this week. He only have one start since 2012. Which resulted in a 19th. So stats aren't very useful. Just carefully watch him in practice before Saturday morning lockdown.
15-Clint Bowyer: Bowyer have been one of the best road course racers over the past few seasons. He is still underrated though. Evidence of that showed back in Sonoma. Over past two seasons here , Bowyer have compiled 5.0 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 2 Top 10s , and 107.6 driver rating. Since 2012 , Bowyer holds the best average finish of full time drivers (5.2) and 111.9 driver rating (series-best) on road courses.
16-Greg Biffle: Two weeks ago I tabbed The Biff as a sleeper (finished 13th). Same thing at Pocono (finish 5th). Now we are headed to Watkins and he is again a sleeper. Not gonna spend a lot of time on the Biff. Just know since 2012 , he holds an 9.2 average finish on road courses. Which is better then: Jeff Gordon , Marcos Ambrose , Tony Stewart, Brad Keselowski and few other noticeable names. Point being he is extremely underrated.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy is one of the best drivers at Watkins. He been extremely strong here. Likely will be a popular pick. He will be fast all weekend long. Over the past two races here , Rowdy have compiled 4.0 average finish , 1 win , 1 Top 5 , 2 Top 10s , 72 laps led and 136.0 driver rating. In 9 career races , Rowdy holds 8.1 average finish and 2 win.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth always been a okay road racer , but never good enough to be contender. Earlier this season at Sonoma , MK day was ended after Dale Jr turn him around. Over the past two races here , Kenseth have compiled 15.5 average finish , 1 Top 10, 1 Top 20, 0 lap led and 83.6 driver rating. In 14 career races , Kenseth holds an 15.57 with 4 Top 10s (28%).
22-Joey Logano: Logano is very underrated. Joey actually is a accomplished road racer. But haven't yet put together a strong run to get some respect. Over the past two races here , JoLo have compiled 19.5 average finish , 1 Top 10 , 1 Top 20, 0 lap led and 78.7 driver rating. I would save him for another week in limited start leagues.
24-Jeff Gordon: After being dominate early in his career at Watkins. Gordon have became VERY overrated. Meaning people don't realize how bad he been here since 2001. In his last 12 races at Watkins , Gordon have only 2 Top 10s (0 Top 5s). Of couse he been bad fast all year and likely will be same at Watkins. Nevertheless I need to see strong practices from the 24 before I give him a slot on my team this week.
27-Paul Menard: Menard is actually been consistent on road courses which would be a surprise to many. In fact , he finished in the top 5 at Sonoma . Since 2012 Menard holds 13.6 average finish on road courses. Menard is better then most would give him credit for.
31-Ryan Newman: Not gonna spend a lot of time on Newman. Newman is middle of the road as a legitimate road racer. He always been good , but never great. Over the past two races here , Newman have compiled 12.5 average finish , 2 Top 20s , 0 laps led and 78.4 driver rating. Since 2012 , Newman holds an 13.8 average finish on road courses.
41-Kurt Busch: Busch is much better at Sonoma then he is at Watkins. Even though he was able to put together a nice run with the 78 last season (top 10). Over the past two races here , Kurt have compiled 20.0 average finish , 1 top 10 , 1 top 20, 0 laps led and 81.4 driver rating. There are better gambles this week.
42-Kyle Larson: Okay let keep it simple. Larson will likely start near the front , look impressive in practice and finish well ahead of any other rookie. The kid is that good. With that being said , he will be more useful at other tracks as well. So I will likely keep him off this week (least in Yahoo).
47-Aj Dinger: I am still feeling bitter towards Dale Jr. After he turn the Dinger on a restart at Sonoma. Nevertheless Aj had a top 5 car and easily led the most laps in that race. He finish top 10 last year here. Dinger could be a terrific sleeper for Sunday race.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is actually overlooked at road courses. Surprising he been very effective as a fantasy pick. Unfortunately he is in a major slump at the moment. Since his win at Michigan , there been nothing but bad luck. 4 Finishes outside the top 35. You cannot use him right now. Even though his average finish on road courses since 2012 is 6.4 (2nd best among full time drivers).
51-Justin Alliager: The only rookie I would consider using in Yahoo. Mainly because his solid record in the NNS on road courses. Sadly he was a disappointment at Sonoma in June. Practice will likely tell weather or not roster worthy for Sunday race.
78-Martin Truex Jr: MT Jr had some great runs at the road courses races. Including an solid run earlier this season at Sonoma. His inconsistent runs in 2014 drag down his value though. Carefully watch Truex in practice on Friday before lockdown.
99-Carl Edwards: Edwards won earlier this season at Sonoma. I still think he be overlooked , even after posting a win at Sonoma. Over the past two races here , Edwards have compiled 9.0 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 1 Top 10, 2 Top 20s , 1 lap led and 98.6 driver rating. Since 2012 , Edwards holds 8.6 average finish and 1 win.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
Thanks for reading
Jeff Nathans
