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After Jimmie Johnson winning in the lone star state , we head north to Bristol! One of my favorite races of the season , we can usually find get value throughout the field. The biggest challenge for us fantasy players will be sorting out the contenders from pretenders. Stats can be really misleading if you don't dig deep enough.
1-Jamie Mac: JMac is one of the most underrated options in the field. Last season he had finishes of 38th and 7th. Over the past 4 races he have compiled 18.8 average finish , 15.3 average start , 12.5 average running position , 158 laps led and 88.2 driver rating. Last spring JMac finished 38th , but don't be fool though. He was running top 5 before finding trouble with under 50 to go. He was very strong in that race too. In the summer , he backed it up. In that event he led a career-high 148 laps on his way to 8th place finish. If three cars didn't stay out on one of the final cautions , Jamie probably would've went to victory lane. 4 Of his past 5 races at Bristol have ended inside the top 20. 6 Of his previous 10 have ended inside the top 10!
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is one of the hottest drivers in the series with 4 straight Top 5 finishes since Phoenix! Last season at Bristol , he finished 14th and 3rd. Over his past 4 races here , Brad have compiled 12.3 average finish , 7.5 average start , 9.8 average running position , 148 laps led and 100.5 driver rating. Over the past 3 spring races , Brad have been the best driver in the series. He have managed 6.0 average finish (Series-best) , 4.7 average start (Series-best) , 6.3 average running position (Series-best) , 334 laps led (Series-best) and 118.4 (Series-best). Can you say impressive? Probably would be even better if Harvick didn't wreck in front of Keselowski while running in the top 5. 4 Of his past 7 overall have ended inside the top 3 (two wins). Unfortunately both his wins were on old Bristol.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon didn't impressive me at all last season. Quite frankly , he have a lot of work to do before he is a useable option. In two starts , Austin have compiled 19.5 average finish , 26.0 average start , 27.0 average running position and 51.5 driver rating. His 11th place run last spring stands out. In reality his performance in that race was at best acceptable for a rookie. He started 26th and posted 22.0 average running position with 67.4 driver rating. While only spending 11% of all laps inside the top 15! In the summer , Dillon finished 28th (-7L) with 32.0 average running position. Needless to say , Dillon needs to improve here.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick actually performed well at Bristol last season. Unfortunately his finishes didn't show it! He had finishes of 39th and 11th. While leading 103 laps and holding 6.5 average running position. Over his past 4 races here , Harvick have compiled 24.5 average finish , 15.3 average start , 8.8 average running position , 110 laps led and 99.1 driver rating. Harvick have finished inside the top 15 in seven of his past ten overall here. Including 3 of his past 4 race. Unfortunately his last top 10 was back in 2011. He is a streak of 7 straight finishes outside the top 10. Don't hear that often , right?
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne is coming off an 8th place run at Texas! Bristol been good to him lately. Last season he had finishes of 8th and 35th. Over his past 4 races here , Kahne have compiled 11.5 average finish , 7.8 average start , 10.0 average running position , 165 laps led and 107.9 driver rating. Excluding last summer's 35th place effort , he have accumulated 4 straight Top 10s (1 win). 6 Of his past 9 starts have ended inside the top 10. Only twice in that span , Kahne have finished worse than 11th. Also worth noting , Kahne have led in 4 of his past 5 Bristol races. Including 40 more laps in three of those races.
10-Danica Patrick: Patrick is coming off 16th place finish at Texas! Patrick continue to make improvements every single weeks. I was convinced in the offseason she was legit on Intermediate tracks. Short tracks however make me cringe in fear when its comes to Danica. She wasn't bad last season when she posted 22.0 average finish. But I need her to take the next step and run top 20 for a entire race (or close to it). Until then , I think she is better off at the intermediate tracks. There plenty of them coming up!
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin had terrible average finish (23.0) at Bristol in 2014. He posted 18.5 average running position and led 32 laps. In the summer race , he was running inside the top 3 when Harvick spun him. Which also collected Dale Jr. Hamlin eventually finished 40th. In the spring race , he started on the pole and led 28 laps. When the checkers waved , Hamlin was 6th. Over the past 4 Bristol races , Hamlin have compiled 24.3 average finish , 4.5 average start , 13.0 average running position , 172 laps led and 91.0 driver rating. While finishes of late haven't been encouraging , however Hamlin have led in 5 straight races.
16-Greg Biffle: Name the only driver in the Cup Series to finished inside the top 12 at every Bristol since 2013? If your answer was Greg Biffle , then you're absolutely correct! Least RFR winning at something , right? Over the past 4 races here , Biff have compiled 10.5 average finish , 17.3 average start , 15.8 average running position and 82.6 driver rating. Biff historically been the best driver among active drivers. In 24 career starts , he have an 11.9 average finish with 13 Top 10s and 21 Top 20s. Surprisingly Biff have never won. His best finish was 3rd (2005). 9 Of his past 11 races have ended inside the top 13. Including 4 straight races in the top 12.
18-David Ragan: Ragan is coming off an 13th place run at Texas! I really been impressive by Ragan lately. Honestly feel like he isn't getting the respect he should. At Bristol expect another top 20 run out of him. I think he pretty much is an auto-start in Yahoo Fantasy Racing. Especially since his time with Gibbs is quickly coming to an end.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is coming off an 10th-place run at Texas! Now he goes to the track he won last spring. Over the past 4 Bristol races , Edwards have compiled 16.3 average finish , 9.8 average start , 13.3 average running position , 197 laps led and 96.8 driver rating. Last season Edwards had finishes of 1st and 7th. Before last season win , he finished outside the top 15 in four straight Bristol races. He should contend for the win. If he can run like the other JGR cars have at this track.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth have been the best driver in the past two seasons at Bristol. He is on my short list of potential winners. Over the past 4 races here , Kenseth have compiled 13.0 average finish , 9.0 average start , 8.3 average running position and 466 laps led. He actually have had problems finishing in the spring. Despite leading more laps (250) in the spring than summer (211) , Kenseth have much better finishes in the summer. Historically speaking , only Greg Biffle (11.9) and Kyle Busch (12.1) have better career average finish with least 10 starts. In 30 career starts , Kenseth have 19 Top 10s and 24 Top 20s with 3 wins. In 7 of his past 10 Bristol races overall have ended inside the top 10. Including 2 of his past 3 have ended inside the top 5.
22-Joey Logano: Logano arguably been the best driver the past 2 seasons at Bristol. He have compiled 10.8 average finish , 6.3 average start , 13.0 average running position , 89 laps led and 103.5 driver rating. Logano actually been solid from a career point of view. In 8 of his 9 starts , Logano have finished inside the top 20. Including a win last summer. Last spring he finished 20th. After leading early , Logano lost his power steering. He may have sweep Bristol if that didn't happen. In 2015 , he been very reliable! How reliable? Logano have finished inside the top 10 in every race. Something I love in a fantasy pick.
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon is coming off his best finish of the 2015 season! Gordon have won 5 times at Bristol , however his last win was in 2002. His other 4 wins? 1998 or before. Clearly Gordon potential have declined , but his abilities haven't. Evidenced by his consistency over the years. In 7 of his past 10 Bristol overall he have finished inside the top 15. Including 2 of his past 3 starts (7th -twice). Over his past 4 races here , Gordon have compiled 16.0 average finish , 12.8 average start , 11.5 average running position , 83 laps led and 96.9 driver rating. Gordon had finishes of 7th and 16th in 2014. Expect another top 10 out of Gordon at Bristol.
27-Paul Menard: I was heartbroken when the 27 car had to go to garage at Texas! Let me tell you that 27 team is cooking right now. Poor finish , but Menard have outperformed both his teammates by a mile since Fontana. He's pretty good at Bristol too. Over the past 4 races , Menard have compiled 11.3 average finish , 17.8 average start , 15.3 average running position , 65 laps led and 84.0 driver rating. Since joining RCR (in 2011) , Menard been miles better than he's gets credited for! He have accumulated 6 Top 10s in 8 starts. Including 4 of his past 5 Bristol races.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman isn't on my fantasy radar and its pretty obvious why! After a hot start , Newman have gone back to being an top 15 option (again). Over the past 4 Bristol races , Newman have compiled 14.3 average finish , 14.8 average start, 14.0 average running position , and 84.2 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 13th and 11th. Honestly I wouldn't really consider Newman in any format. Especially with the possibility of that huge penalty standing. Expect another top 15 out of Newman.
41-Kurt Busch: Honestly I am not real high on Busch at Bristol and kinda iffy of him going forward. As Busch haven't delivered at Martinsville and Texas. Despite having a fast car. Honestly not sure what happened at Texas. He was running top 5 and then suddenly faded as race went on (probably wrong adjustments). Last season at Bristol , Busch had finishes of 35th and 5th. Busch is a 5-time winner , but haven't won since 2006. Kurt isn't the same on this new surface. He been top 5 or bust pretty much. Over his past 4 Bristol races , he have compiled 18.8 average finish , 10.3 average start , 16.3 average running position , 83 laps led and 90.0 driver rating. Busch is pretty in store another top 10 on Sunday.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson have struggled lately and will be under the radar this week. Honestly I feel like this is exactly where Larson needs to be. He competitively running in the top 10 every week which is more than enough out of a 2nd-year driver. His time is coming and its will be soon. Larson and the 42 team keep shooting themselves in the foot though. Last season at Bristol , Larson was pretty impressive! He had finishes of 11th and 11th. While posting 12.0 average running position and 91.6 driver rating. Most impressive about Larson? He had an 30.0 average starting position. Almost certain his finishes would've been better , if he started up front.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson and Team 48 can turn on as quick as they can turn it off. If they want to win , then they will win. Heck look who we're talking about! At Bristol , its more a struggle for Johnson. Especially over his past 4 starts. Only one top 10 (4th) in last summer race. Before that he had 3 straight finishes outside the top 15. Over the past 4 races here , Johnson have compiled 20.3 average finish , 10.8 average start , 15.8 average running position , 44 laps led and 84.4 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 19th and 4th. Johnson surprisingly struggled at Martinsville which is scary to think about.
78-Martin Truex Jr: This dude keep on clicking off top 10s , but its seems the streak is becoming less and less likely each week. He didn't have a top 10 car , but found a way to do it! At Bristol , I am not real high on him. In 17 career starts , only twice have Truex Jr finished inside the top 10. He did finish at Martinsville , but hate relying on one race to determine a driver's potential. If he shows he something in practice , then I will give me some consideration.
88-Dale Jr: Earnhardt jr have been stout on tracks of 1.5 miles or longer. However at Phoenix and Martinsville , Dale Jr have found trouble. Hard to pick Dale at Bristol knowing that. Also he had bad luck here in 2014! He had finishes of 24th and 39th. Once he have one problem , more are to follow at the short tracks. That been a theme lately for the driver of the 88 car. Over the past 4 races here , he have compiled 19.8 average finish , 21.3 average start , 16.8 average running position , 32 laps led and 86.9 driver rating. I expect another top 10 run out of Dale Jr.
*All stats from Driver Averages & FantasyRacingCheatSheet
Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
