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We are headed to Texas this weekend for the 7th race of the 2015 season! Texas marks the 4th Intermediate racetrack of the season already. Which means we can look back at races at Fontona , Las Vegas , and Atlanta. All 4 tracks share the same worn-out surface which will only makes it easier on us players with picks.
Sleepers -
Aric Almirola: Few weeks ago , I listed Almirola as a sleeper at Martinsville. He didn't disappoint with an 12th place run. I like him again at Texas! Over the past 6 races at Texas , Almirola have put together 17.8 average finish , 18.8 average running position and 3 Top 20s. Not impressive , right? Let look at his previous two spring races now. In the past two spring races , Aric have compiled an 9.5 average finish , 10.0 average start, 13.0 average running position , and 90.9 driver rating. Last season spring is more relevant. He finished 12th , had a 16.0 average running position , 80.4 driver rating and spent 68% of all laps inside the top 15. At similar tracks in 2015 , Amlirola have managed 16.0 average finish , 17.0 average running position and 78.5 driver rating. Decent numbers. Misleading though. He been better than that and most don't even realize it. At Vegas , he had a down race and finished 26th. At Fontana and Atlanta , he had an 11.0 average finish , 16.0 average running position and 81.8 driver rating. Aric have finished 5 of first 6 races in the top 20. Including 4 of those 5 in the top 15 this season.
Paul Menard: If you ever have played against me in a Yahoo Fantasy Racing League , then you're well aware I try squeeze every ouce of value from him. Especially early in the season. This is the 4th Intermediate track and 4th time he made my sleeper list. Most people will jump on the bandwagon around June ,that when his value will bottom out! Texas is a great place to consider him. Last season he posted finishes of 17th and 9th while having an combine average running position of 13.0 and held 87.5 driver rating. At similar tracks in 2015 , Menard have managed 9.7 average finish , 14.3 average running position , and 86.8 driver rating. Most noticeably he finished 4th at Fontona.
AJ Dinger: After back-to-back terrible finishes , expect a bounce back from old Dinger! Most people have jumped off the Dinger express , which means its time to jump on that sweet sweet value. Last season he finished 23rd and 14th while holding an 22.5 average running position. Nothing special , but 7 of his past 9 Texas races have ended in the top 19. At similar tracks in 2015 , Dinger have managed 15.7 average finish with a 19.7 average running position. At Fontona he struggled. Was running inside the top 15 before a speeding penalty late. He also started dead last which didn't help. At Atlanta and Vegas , Dinger muster an 6.5 average finish and 13.5 average running position.
Busts -
Greg Biffle: His Texas stats suggests he should be a great pick , but the past two seasond RFR been way off. I don't see how that will change this weekend. I am not even gonna put stats down , because almost everyone know how bad RFR been this season. Biff been a top 15 option at best this season. Not worth a roster spot in my opinion. Even though RFR introducing a new car this weekend at Texas. After a Charlotte test , Biffle wasn't too optimism about it. Said there wasn't fireworks going off after the test. But believe it right step in a better direction.
Jeff Gordon - I been don't see the upside in picking Gordon on a Intermediate track. At similar tracks , he managed an 23.0 average finish and 15.3 average running position. What really scares me is his Texas record recently. 3 Of his past 4 races have ended well outside the top 25. Not because lack of speed , but bad luck. He will likely have top 10 speed , but unfortunately I am not certain he can finish there and not enough upside in my opinion.
Twitter - @Garryy12
