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I highly suspected a wreck-filled Bristol race as I hinted at last week in my column! I really hate when I am right sometimes , so now what? Most of us are still trying to recover from Sunday's race. Believe it or not , I expect a more calm and traditional race this week. I actually hoping for a boring caution free event. Things never go according to plan , do they?
The most important thing to remember this week is to not overthink your lineups or try to force a play. Even though I don't hate slapping on some sleepers in your fantasy lineups. Honestly this is probably the best place to do it. Minus the road courses and upcoming plates races. The next 13 or so races loaded with larger flats and intermediate tracks.
Sleepers:
Aric Almirola - I am not gonna sit here and try to convince you how great of a option Almirola is. Because he isn't , but he is a reliable option who can deliver a powerful punch! His past stats at Richmond can back that up too. Over his past 4 starts , Aric have managed 13.8 average finish , 22.5 average start , 17.5 average running position and 77.9 driver rating. Those numbers aren't overly impressive , however there several things I like about Aric. Most noticeably his consistency after 8 races in 2015. 7 of 8 races have ended 19th or better. Including 4 finishes of 13th or better. In fact , 2 of his past 3 (Martinsville and Bristol) have ended in 12th and 13th. I also like his Richmond record! Especially over his past 4 starts with no finishes outside the top 20. Not to mention , Aric did a tire-test here and will run the NXS race on Saturday.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr - I been watching Ricky the past few races and he is going vastly unnoticed this season. Not only is he outrunning his value , but he is also the best driver at RFR. His 4th place finish at Bristol put him on the map. However that just tip of the iceberg. We have to go back to Phoenix (5 races ago) to find start of his hot streak. 4 Of the past 5 races have ended in 15th or better. His 12th at Phoenix relevant because Richmond commonly compared to it. Also helps that Ricky ran very well in his rookie year at Richmond. Any data from 2014 probably can be tossed out!
Austin Dillon - How about some love for Austin Dillon? He have finished 6 of 8 races this season inside the top 20. Including 4 finishes inside the top 16. His Richmond record isn't special with finishes of 27th and 20th in 2014. Fortunately Dillon does one thing very well and that improvements. If Dillon goes through a entire race , then there a good chance he will improve from his previous start. Least at most tracks. I expect another quality finish from Austin. Don't expect another top 10 , but I see a finish around 15th or so. Also I have made a few observations about Dillon thus far in his cup career. He is a very patience racer , so you won't see him make a irrational decision. Unless its a late restart or something. Dillon also is a very consistent performer. He may not have a car to run top 15 or top 20 even at start of a race. But he consistency improve his car throughout a race. Something I always found to be an asset.
Busts:
Clint Bowyer -Sorry but I am not buying into Bowyer. I know he will be a popular pick , but don't really see the point in selecting a overvalued driver. Without question Bowyer will be overvalued! Honestly it hard to recommend someone like Clint. I understand he is a solid short track driver , but he couldn't even run top 10 at Martinsville. So why would Richmond be any different? Heck he probably shouldn't even finished top 15 at Martinsville. Luckily several other drivers finished poorly. I guess my point being is MWR sucks. Excuse my language , but that the only way I can put it. Its not Clint nor MWR fault. That organization needs an second veteran driver and build addition chemistry. Because right now there isn't any at all.
Chase Elliott - A popular sleeper this week will be Elliott and I am really excited for him. Unfortunately rookies been slapped around this season. 2 super-rookies have made a combined 4 starts. Only 1 Top 25 thus far. Also I don't feel extremely comfortable with starting a inexperienced driver at a short track. While I love his potential , I think there a better chance he get lapped early if his qualifications goes poorly. Either way I am excited to see how Elliott does in his 2nd start.
Twitter - @Garryy12
