Tuesday, November 03, 2015

Fantasy Nascar Sleepers & Busts (Texas)

Welcome to TimersSports

Sleepers -

Ricky Stenhouse Jr - I will let last week's poor performance at Martinsville slide as I expect him to rebound very nicely at Texas! Stenhouse have been outrunning his RFR teammates by miles in the chase and I expect that to continue on Sunday. Before finishing 39th at Martinsville, Stenhouse Jr was by far one of the best fantasy values in the field. As he have finished 18th or better in every race in the chase. In fact, he have finished 8th-13th from New Hampshire to Talladega. That's 5 straight top 13 finishes. On his past four 1.5 mile racetracks (dating back to Kentucky), he have finished of 13th, 13th, 18th and 11th. Also earlier this season, he finished 15th at Texas. Do I believe need any more supporting details to make a case for Stenhouse? I don't think so!

Austin Dillon - Dillon have developed into one of better young drivers in Nascar. Remember when everyone was hyping up Kyle Larson from last year's rookie class? It's Dillon who now getting the media hype. And for good reason too! He have ran well more often than not since Slugger have taken over as Crew Chief of the 3 car. If you look at Dillon's results, there is a very good chance that you are not very impressive. That's fair because they aren't. However if you have watched the races, then you realized that he have gotten a lot of misleading finishes. Weather it him making a costly error, poor track position, wreck, or whatever. Bottom line is Dillon have shown he is capable of running well during races. If he can finish races, then this kid becomes heck a lot more valuable. Based on potential, he should be a top 20 driver headed into practice 1.

Aric Almirola - Aric Almirola continues to be one of the best fantasy values in the field! The number one rule in our sport is to ride the hot drivers and Aric have only twice during the chase finished worse than 18th. One of those races he wrecked out of and the other he lost his power steering. Almirola have actually been one of the most consistent drivers over the past 16 races. Only three times have he finished outside of the top 18, dating all the way back to Kentucky in early July! On the high-speed intermediate tracks in the chase, he have finished 24th (power steering issue - Kansas) and 10th (twice - Chicagoland and Charlotte). That's encouraging from a fantasy point of view as it shows he's capable of finishing well. He doesn't have many great finishes at Texas, but I think he finishes in the top 15 this weekend though.


Busts -

Kyle Larson - The young CGR driver have not had much to look forward in 2015 and it isn't because he haven't ran great. At times this season, he have ran very well and contended for top 5 finishes. However if we look at his recent performances, I would say picking Larson is dangerous. He started off the chase very well with 2 Top 5 in first three races, but since haven't had much to show for overall. He have finished 19th or worse in 4 straight races dating back to Kansas. If we look further back, he have finished 17th or worse in 5 of his past 6 races. Also Larson have not had much luck on the 1.5 mile intermediate racetracks this season. In 9 races, he have only 3 top 15 finishes and have finished 21st or worse in the other 6 events. Now he haven't ran that poorly in all of those races. In fact he have contended for least top 15 finishes in most of those races. However bad luck have found him often this season! I get the feeling Texas won't be any different.

Jimmie Johnson - Trying to pinpoint where Jimmie Johnson will finish in the chase have been quite difficult! Personally I don't really trust him at this point in the season. Championships will be won and lost in your fantasy leagues, based on how many risks you take in these final three races. Is Johnson a good gamble? Especially with so many great options to choose from? Honestly I don't think I could take the risk. If this was midseason, then sure you bet I would be all over a under the radar Jimmie Johnson. However it's crunch time and I just don't see him having enough fantasy value to be considered over guys like Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, or even Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski for that matter. If you going to roster him, then do it at your own risk. For the Johnson risk to pay off, I think he have to finish in the top 5, otherwise I don't think it would be really worth it.

Twitter - @Garryy12